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Author Topic: Do you fully rely on stats before placing a bet?  (Read 807 times)
Cityhunter34
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February 24, 2026, 09:28:28 AM
 #121

I always prefer to gamble based on my own research, it is not possible to say for confirm what the outcome of gambling can be, the outcome of gambling is completely uncertain. So no matter how much we research and gamble, we have to depend on luck to win, only lucky people can win a lot of money by gambling. So by conducting gambling through research, you can protect yourself from the risk of losing extra money and you can control your emotions through gambling and you can control yourself within your own boundaries and always protect yourself from gambling addiction and this is a very important thing.

Making your own research before gambling reduces your risk of losing money in gambling because you get the chance to remove some less performing teams before making your final decision. Going through head to head statistics and checking the teams previous games, their winning, losses and the number of injured players that will not be available in the game is a good way to ascertain the options you select before hoping to be lucky to win in your gamble. Making research doesn't stop you from losing money or getting addicted it only prevents you from making wrong predictions and increases your chances of winning.
Any body that doesn't make him own research and analyze before betting it's not worthy to call a gambler because it is very important to know what the teams are and performances because most times we often experience unnecessary losses due to the fact that we don't pay attention to what is going on with team that we are betting on.

Despite the fact that gambling depends on luck doesn't mean you would be carried away by luck all the time because luck can easily get you a win when you are also making informed decision to make it through the game because research play in own role increasing your winning chances.

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February 24, 2026, 04:36:42 PM
 #122

If I see that a club has high possibility of winning a match, I am always very conscious on choosing them to have a straight win and instead I can choose the team to either win in either half to stand at a safe side. Most time I can stake to have a straight winning with 1UP or 2UP if I am not that sure.

That's even what also contributes to my lose sometimes, if I give a team straight win, they sometimes underperform in a way that I never thought they would do, so what I do something is to give both team to score a goal or use this your strategy to bet on the team's win in first half. However, non of this our strategy is perfect, it surprises me at times when I see that I lost some bets due to the poor performance of a team which were supposed to perform better than they did.

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February 24, 2026, 04:42:19 PM
 #123

In reality even if the prediction is correct the result can be reversed a missed penalty or a sudden injury can turn the whole match around. Then it seems like everything is really luck, But to me it's not really luck, it's not just stats. Stats actually give a frame but they can't cover the unpredictable things inside the match, And the bookmakers are right, they are in business not to give guarantees. All the info is open because the bigger the market the safer their profit.

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February 24, 2026, 07:37:48 PM
 #124

In my opinion, do not make bets by fully relying on existing statistics, however, the results of gambling will not be able to be predicted accurately because anything can happen when the match takes place such as for example we bet on a stronger team but that does not mean that the strong team will win because luck also plays there can be problems that occur with this strong team such as injuries that have an impact on their performance.

In addition, there is also the possibility that the bookie can play or manipulate the course of the match, it does not rule out the possibility that we can lose the bet even though we have made a bet by relying on statistics that may be said to be accurate. It's good to use instinct too in my opinion, because after all this also still involves luck.

You can refer to the stats as a guide but it is not the absolute reason why you will totally trust such stat because there are so many games that ended up as upset. So for me, if you know the sports really well, it means, you also have the idea about the capability of the athletes involved. And so you can determine if there's possibility of upset to happen despite of the stats.
And with that consideration, I am not totally dependent on stats and odds provided by various sites, because if you are an avid follower of the sports, you have the feeling that somehow that athlete can pull an upset. So just trust your instincts. After all, it is your money at stake.
To be a guide it may be understandable but when making this a benchmark is clearly a mistake because for statistics actually does not really guarantee in the bets made.
Indeed, statistics will be very influential and can be important as an initial reference material to increase the probability that we have to decide on a bet but on the one hand when this is the only benchmark for betting it is clearly a mistake.

When we decide to bet there should be several things we should consider and statistics are only one of several variables that should be considered. If only statistics are the benchmark then it is possible that our confidence will be destroyed from the start because our thoughts are too confident in what has happened but do not pay attention to conditions and several other aspects that must be considered as well before betting.

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February 24, 2026, 09:46:32 PM
 #125

Not really, sports betting is not all about stats because at the end of the day, luck matters the most. For example, the Warriors beat the Nuggets without Porzingis, Curry, Green, and Butler. If you just relied on stats, you would have gone for the Nuggets. Even I, as a Warriors fan, would have doubted them winning against the Nuggets at that time. Stats are just a guide but don’t guarantee a win. The Warriors vs. Nuggets game is one proof that an underdog can upset a favorite even if the favorite is ahead in stats.



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February 24, 2026, 10:00:24 PM
 #126

Not really, sports betting is not all about stats because at the end of the day, luck matters the most.

In this case, it's difficult to correct or blame. On the other hand, sometimes statistics are necessary for some sports, such as tennis (for me personally). And relying solely on luck in sports betting isn't really possible.

Actually, it's more appropriate to look at the statistics first and wait for the results.
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February 24, 2026, 10:35:27 PM
 #127

In my opinion, do not make bets by fully relying on existing statistics, however, the results of gambling will not be able to be predicted accurately because anything can happen when the match takes place such as for example we bet on a stronger team but that does not mean that the strong team will win because luck also plays there can be problems that occur with this strong team such as injuries that have an impact on their performance.

In addition, there is also the possibility that the bookie can play or manipulate the course of the match, it does not rule out the possibility that we can lose the bet even though we have made a bet by relying on statistics that may be said to be accurate. It's good to use instinct too in my opinion, because after all this also still involves luck.

You can refer to the stats as a guide but it is not the absolute reason why you will totally trust such stat because there are so many games that ended up as upset. So for me, if you know the sports really well, it means, you also have the idea about the capability of the athletes involved. And so you can determine if there's possibility of upset to happen despite of the stats.
And with that consideration, I am not totally dependent on stats and odds provided by various sites, because if you are an avid follower of the sports, you have the feeling that somehow that athlete can pull an upset. So just trust your instincts. After all, it is your money at stake.
To be a guide it may be understandable but when making this a benchmark is clearly a mistake because for statistics actually does not really guarantee in the bets made.
Indeed, statistics will be very influential and can be important as an initial reference material to increase the probability that we have to decide on a bet but on the one hand when this is the only benchmark for betting it is clearly a mistake.

When we decide to bet there should be several things we should consider and statistics are only one of several variables that should be considered. If only statistics are the benchmark then it is possible that our confidence will be destroyed from the start because our thoughts are too confident in what has happened but do not pay attention to conditions and several other aspects that must be considered as well before betting.
It is highly risky of anyone to rely on previous figures to make all their betting decisions. The statistics do give us the picture of initial state of things, but we also must be attentive to actual state of things on the ground. Failure to consider unexpected circumstances would most definitely be followed by a big disappointment. The analysis of each variable should be balanced since this is the key to avoiding the same pitfalls.


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February 24, 2026, 11:51:38 PM
 #128

Statistics are a double-edged sword because they can give you false expectations. A team might be coming off a string of great results, but that's because they've faced teams of a lower or equal level, or they're simply on a lucky streak. This puts them in a statistically favorable position, but they could then face a superior team that's on a losing streak, and therefore it could give a false sense of equality, so the numbers will reflect that mathematical reality.

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February 25, 2026, 01:31:59 AM
 #129

Statistics are a double-edged sword because they can give you false expectations. A team might be coming off a string of great results, but that's because they've faced teams of a lower or equal level, or they're simply on a lucky streak. This puts them in a statistically favorable position, but they could then face a superior team that's on a losing streak, and therefore it could give a false sense of equality, so the numbers will reflect that mathematical reality.
Statistics give gamblers the most likely outcome, but ignore small details and variables which can make total difference regards the final outcome. Some outcomes don't even have a logical explanation, so there is something which goes beyond statistics which can't be identified beforehand a match. This unknown factor makes sports betting unpredictable, just like casino's table games. In conclusion, it's not possible, neither advisable to fully rely on statistics when placing a bet.

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February 25, 2026, 01:40:47 AM
 #130

These days, we have tons of websites showing every possible stat. Head-to-head, form, injuries, advanced numbers, everything is easy to access. In theory, we already have all the info we need. So why do most gamblers still lose?

If everyone is looking at the same data, are we really gaining an edge, or just following the crowd? I don’t have exact numbers, but it feels like relying purely on stats doesn’t lead to consistent wins. If it did, more bettors would be profitable long term.

Maybe full reliance on stats is just a smart-looking mistake.

What do you think, do you trust the numbers 100%, mix them with instinct, or go with your own read?

It is because the pot of gold is in the details that no one else sees, the valuable opportunities lie in an outcome that sometimes the site has not yet been able to predict, but that you've identified. It is in these areas that people actually manage to make a profit.
Of course, I confess that such opportunities are very rare, and usually we just follow the crowd and receive a reward with a very low margin, so low that it is usually canceled out when a result goes wrong (a foul, suspension, or unexpected goal during the game).

Trusting statistics is the safest way to avoid losing money quickly, but personal experience and intuition sometimes need to prevail when we believe that a result may be different from what is being presented.

I trust the numbers, but I do not follow the crowd... I study each match in advance and bet on what I believe in.
Honestly... I've had good opportunities, but in the long run I am always losing... betting on sports is difficult.

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February 25, 2026, 01:45:37 AM
 #131

What do you think, do you trust the numbers 100%, mix them with instinct, or go with your own read?
Even though stats do not guarantee winnings, I’d rather have the data to support my bets than to bet blindly.  Sometimes I go with my feelings especially when it’s a team I’m attached to.

If I see that a club has high possibility of winning a match, I am always very conscious on choosing them to have a straight win and instead I can choose the team to either win in either half to stand at a safe side. Most time I can stake to have a straight winning with 1UP or 2UP if I am not that sure.
That's even what also contributes to my lose sometimes, if I give a team straight win, they sometimes underperform in a way that I never thought they would do, so what I do something is to give both team to score a goal or use this your strategy to bet on the team's win in first half. However, non of this our strategy is perfect, it surprises me at times when I see that I lost some bets due to the poor performance of a team which were supposed to perform better than they did.
I understand what Wakate is saying but don’t you think it’s even more risky when you bet on a team to win just a half of the game? I’m sure the odds aren’t as high as a straight win, if I’m not so confident about a game I just play double chance (any team to win).

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February 25, 2026, 02:11:56 AM
 #132

I usually go with numbers and instinct both. Before the game you have to predict and after the game you have match the outcome. If you have been correct, dont get overconfident and think that you have been good at predictions but you got lucky that thr prediction matched. It might not repeat in the next game and hence you should not take the next bet lightly.

The luck factor will always come in however good the numbers seem to be.

 
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February 25, 2026, 05:56:18 AM
 #133

In my opinion, do not make bets by fully relying on existing statistics, however, the results of gambling will not be able to be predicted accurately because anything can happen when the match takes place such as for example we bet on a stronger team but that does not mean that the strong team will win because luck also plays there can be problems that occur with this strong team such as injuries that have an impact on their performance.

In addition, there is also the possibility that the bookie can play or manipulate the course of the match, it does not rule out the possibility that we can lose the bet even though we have made a bet by relying on statistics that may be said to be accurate. It's good to use instinct too in my opinion, because after all this also still involves luck.

You can refer to the stats as a guide but it is not the absolute reason why you will totally trust such stat because there are so many games that ended up as upset. So for me, if you know the sports really well, it means, you also have the idea about the capability of the athletes involved. And so you can determine if there's possibility of upset to happen despite of the stats.
And with that consideration, I am not totally dependent on stats and odds provided by various sites, because if you are an avid follower of the sports, you have the feeling that somehow that athlete can pull an upset. So just trust your instincts. After all, it is your money at stake.
To be a guide it may be understandable but when making this a benchmark is clearly a mistake because for statistics actually does not really guarantee in the bets made.
Indeed, statistics will be very influential and can be important as an initial reference material to increase the probability that we have to decide on a bet but on the one hand when this is the only benchmark for betting it is clearly a mistake.

When we decide to bet there should be several things we should consider and statistics are only one of several variables that should be considered. If only statistics are the benchmark then it is possible that our confidence will be destroyed from the start because our thoughts are too confident in what has happened but do not pay attention to conditions and several other aspects that must be considered as well before betting.
It is highly risky of anyone to rely on previous figures to make all their betting decisions. The statistics do give us the picture of initial state of things, but we also must be attentive to actual state of things on the ground. Failure to consider unexpected circumstances would most definitely be followed by a big disappointment. The analysis of each variable should be balanced since this is the key to avoiding the same pitfalls.

Statistics are not to be underestimated, they can provide us with a good basis of knowledge before we place a bet, but they never should be the main element which we should count on. The previous performance is not always an indicator of the future in particularly in sports where any of the factors like injuries, change in tactics, motivation, even weather conditions can affect the performance. Bad luck occurs constantly, and this is one of the reasons why betting is exciting and risky. In my opinion, the statistics must be supplemented by the latest news about teams, the situation of matches, and own interpretation. Both total judgment in the end is far much safer than trusting to figures.

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February 25, 2026, 02:52:48 PM
 #134

Following statistics is not wrong, stats actually gives a bettor an information about a particular league, club form and pattern of play, following this statistics does not guarantee 100% winning but enables a bettor to make informed decision and predict informatively. Betting without stats is like betting blindly, when you compare people who follow stat and people who don't follow stats, their is a big difference and in all people who gamble with the help of stats makes more wins than betting with instinct. This is unlike following influencers and predictors who suggest games for you to play and sometimes influencers may not go deep in analysing their bets, but as a bettor you can make deep analysis regarding your bets with the help of stats.
Betting without stats is like having no direction that's true, as sports bettors this is a part of our activity that we have incorporated but one thing a lot of people need to realize is that it's not always possible to win using stats because there are lots of factors in sports betting that can affect the prediction of a game even though there's supposed to be a 95 percent chance of playing out in that direction.

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February 25, 2026, 03:28:53 PM
 #135

Betting without stats is like having no direction that's true, as sports bettors this is a part of our activity that we have incorporated but one thing a lot of people need to realize is that it's not always possible to win using stats because there are lots of factors in sports betting that can affect the prediction of a game even though there's supposed to be a 95 percent chance of playing out in that direction.
I certainly rely on statistics when I want to place a bet, but I also understand that statistics can't be trusted blindly, as they can only serve as a rough guide, and each match is unique and has its own peculiarities. I try to notice these to find what specifically appeals to me about a bet, asking myself whether I should even make this bet and waiting for a better one. In my analysis, statistics help me only a little, and I understand that they often look like mere numbers, although sometimes that's necessary, even for professionals.

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February 25, 2026, 03:31:52 PM
 #136

What do you think, do you trust the numbers 100%, mix them with instinct, or go with your own read?
My experience is in gambling and currently I rarely use data or information from statistics, I make bets based on my instincts and personal judgment. However, what I do cannot be separated from the knowledge and experience I have had, for example in sports betting.

I understand and I know that information from statistics has been processed or organized, so in that case I hesitate to use statistics in betting. I am happy with the results of my efforts, even though I have to lose, what's more, winning will bring joy to me personally.

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February 25, 2026, 03:39:32 PM
 #137

These days, we have tons of websites showing every possible stat. Head-to-head, form, injuries, advanced numbers, everything is easy to access. In theory, we already have all the info we need. So why do most gamblers still lose?

If everyone is looking at the same data, are we really gaining an edge, or just following the crowd? I don’t have exact numbers, but it feels like relying purely on stats doesn’t lead to consistent wins. If it did, more bettors would be profitable long term.

Maybe full reliance on stats is just a smart-looking mistake.

What do you think, do you trust the numbers 100%, mix them with instinct, or go with your own read?

Stats doesn't matter sometimes, didn't Barcelona has all their squad on check when they lose to Atletico and Girona? If it was the other way round when Raphina and Yamal were injured, everyone will say the injuries was part of the reason why the failed but unfortunately that day, they had the best men among them, they also had 3 wins in the last 5 games and 1 draw but they still fail in those two matches this is why stats isn't enough to predict the market.

There are times they look helpful, but most often don't rely on them too much. There are weeks games don't favour you, red card are not expected in games but they happened frequently and if the team don't have goals earlier, they may waste the only opportunity you have to make money with them. I will still use Barcelona with Atletico, they did messed up that beautiful game with red card and yet they didn't have early goals couple with wasted penalty opportunity.

R


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February 25, 2026, 04:01:37 PM
 #138

What do you think, do you trust the numbers 100%, mix them with instinct, or go with your own read?
My experience is in gambling and currently I rarely use data or information from statistics, I make bets based on my instincts and personal judgment. However, what I do cannot be separated from the knowledge and experience I have had, for example in sports betting.

I understand and I know that information from statistics has been processed or organized, so in that case I hesitate to use statistics in betting. I am happy with the results of my efforts, even though I have to lose, what's more, winning will bring joy to me personally.
Sometimes, of course, it's useful to avoid statistics altogether, because they box players in and everything boils down to everyone thinking the same way or in a similar way. It's important to have your own personal opinion and build on that. I'm not saying you should bet simply because you think you should, but rather, it's important to understand why and justify it with compelling, relevant reasons. Generally speaking, statistics will help us, and if they do, it's only in the right hands and when used wisely.

 
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February 25, 2026, 04:46:56 PM
 #139

In reality even if the prediction is correct the result can be reversed a missed penalty or a sudden injury can turn the whole match around. Then it seems like everything is really luck, But to me it's not really luck, it's not just stats. Stats actually give a frame but they can't cover the unpredictable things inside the match, And the bookmakers are right, they are in business not to give guarantees. All the info is open because the bigger the market the safer their profit.

The bigger the market, the safer their profits indeed. Some gamblers especially the those who are still new into gambling believes that gambling can be easily profitable by just working with stats but in reality it is not just about the stats, it is about the luck that comes your way. Gambling based on stats is a good practice because it gives you a great insight into what to expect and how it is most likely to come but it is definitely not a guaranteed win for a gambler as any other thing that you mentioned above can be a factor that will stifle your chances of winning deliberately or not.

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February 25, 2026, 04:50:42 PM
 #140

What do you think, do you trust the numbers 100%, mix them with instinct, or go with your own read?
My experience is in gambling and currently I rarely use data or information from statistics, I make bets based on my instincts and personal judgment. However, what I do cannot be separated from the knowledge and experience I have had, for example in sports betting.

I understand and I know that information from statistics has been processed or organized, so in that case I hesitate to use statistics in betting. I am happy with the results of my efforts, even though I have to lose, what's more, winning will bring joy to me personally.

So you are implying you take more pleasure and pride from winning thanks to your own knowledge than using summary of statistics in order to get your own conclusion.

Actually, being able to win from your own judgement and instinct is quite impressive and I would  doubt it make you feel special when you hit the nail. But you also need to take a look at consistency and whether you are missing opportunities out for the sake of sticking to your instinct.

There are people who have better instincts than others, and when one's instinct is kind of lacklustre, it makes sense to look at statistics and history.

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