Possible insider trading on Polymarket

[Agbamoni]

I am actually aware that "some" crises that happen in the world today (including natural disasters) are orchestrated by some selfish personalities just so they can benefit via the crypto market, the forex market, economic benefits, and so on. I personally wouldn't be surprised if that's the case in this situation as well.

Or probably information concerning that might have been leaked to the individual involved, or maybe they just wanted to have fun. But we should be aware of things that are very much possible. Nothing is too wild to be done anymore.

[Cheema02]

It could be an insider or someone who's part of the planning. They know that this is an advantage on them and that's why they're not letting it pass that they can't profit from what's about to happen and they really did made some profit in it after the attack. But did polymarket allowed the 6 accounts to withdraw the profits that they have made? because they'll also find it suspicious then.

Maybe they were able to withdraw, I mean, they couldn't figure it out that easily if some people are able to win, they probably did the investigation first before banning the accounts. For huge websites like them, it's probably going to be an issue to some if there are no payouts or withdrawals on huge money winnings.

They can't ban anyone for just winning, regardless of the amount they used to make their bets, because despite the fact that there could be rigging or insider information, there is always a possibility of a coincidence, and I'll tell you why. When basically there are just two available options for you to make a bet, you will surely choose one of them, and since you have no idea about what the results are going to be, and it is just gambling, you will surely just cross your fingers and choose one of the options, and probably the option that you believe has a higher possibility of happening.

Now if a person wins this way, and they can him by saying that he had insider information or he cheated then the person can sue them for that, because they can't do anything without any actual proof of the gambler who they blame for cheating. It is true that some people might have insider information and use that to cheat in prediction markets, but it is also possible that some people are just taking risks with their money, and actually winning, and then they are also being dragged into the issue without doing anything.

[Johnlomape]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

This is a sign of insider information and maybe these people already know what will happen to Iran that is why they took the advantage early before anyone can suspect them. The literally took opportunity of what is going to happen in the future and they thought they wouldn't be caught. For this information to be leaked early, it means most of the people that have shares in the Polymarket are part of the government official and that is why it's very easy for them to check their system for suspicious movement and winnings.

[bangjoe]

I've even said since the emergence of prediction markets that have been discussed before that the possibility of insider games is very possible in this market, especially related to political, economic cases that basically have a plan before being published, and people who know it must be looking for ways to make it a valuable value, can sell A1 info or he uses it himself through the hands of others.
But some people are indeed apathetic with it all and think that they are looking for luck with the similarity of the answers that some small group already knows.

[xenomorfo]

They can't ban anyone for just winning, regardless of the amount they used to make their bets, because despite the fact that there could be rigging or insider information, there is always a possibility of a coincidence, and I'll tell you why. When basically there are just two available options for you to make a bet, you will surely choose one of them, and since you have no idea about what the results are going to be, and it is just gambling, you will surely just cross your fingers and choose one of the options, and probably the option that you believe has a higher possibility of happening.

Now if a person wins this way, and they can him by saying that he had insider information or he cheated then the person can sue them for that, because they can't do anything without any actual proof of the gambler who they blame for cheating. It is true that some people might have insider information and use that to cheat in prediction markets, but it is also possible that some people are just taking risks with their money, and actually winning, and then they are also being dragged into the issue without doing anything.

that would be a pretty bad thing, getting banned for winning

some people have privileged information, they could not have, by now it is known to everyone even to the stones that Trump or perhaps his son, have played knowing the information beforehand
this is incorrect.

[o48o]

They can't ban anyone for just winning, regardless of the amount they used to make their bets, because despite the fact that there could be rigging or insider information, there is always a possibility of a coincidence, and I'll tell you why. When basically there are just two available options for you to make a bet, you will surely choose one of them, and since you have no idea about what the results are going to be, and it is just gambling, you will surely just cross your fingers and choose one of the options, and probably the option that you believe has a higher possibility of happening.

Now if a person wins this way, and they can him by saying that he had insider information or he cheated then the person can sue them for that, because they can't do anything without any actual proof of the gambler who they blame for cheating. It is true that some people might have insider information and use that to cheat in prediction markets, but it is also possible that some people are just taking risks with their money, and actually winning, and then they are also being dragged into the issue without doing anything.

Banning is the least of their worries as they can be however investigated and sued. And about that "actual proof", in court you don't need to present some sort of ultimate proof to prove that someone if guilty. There's no such thing as absolute proof other then in mathematics. Whole thing encapsulates on the idea that someone guilty or not guilty in eyes of the jury. It's about credibility and evidence, which is just there to help the judge or jury and might or might not be enough for the burden of proof.

[icebar]

It could be an insider or someone who's part of the planning. They know that this is an advantage on them and that's why they're not letting it pass that they can't profit from what's about to happen and they really did made some profit in it after the attack. But did polymarket allowed the 6 accounts to withdraw the profits that they have made? because they'll also find it suspicious then.

Maybe they were able to withdraw, I mean, they couldn't figure it out that easily if some people are able to win, they probably did the investigation first before banning the accounts. For huge websites like them, it's probably going to be an issue to some if there are no payouts or withdrawals on huge money winnings.

They can't ban anyone for just winning, regardless of the amount they used to make their bets, because despite the fact that there could be rigging or insider information, there is always a possibility of a coincidence, and I'll tell you why. When basically there are just two available options for you to make a bet, you will surely choose one of them, and since you have no idea about what the results are going to be, and it is just gambling, you will surely just cross your fingers and choose one of the options, and probably the option that you believe has a higher possibility of happening.

Now if a person wins this way, and they can him by saying that he had insider information or he cheated then the person can sue them for that, because they can't do anything without any actual proof of the gambler who they blame for cheating. It is true that some people might have insider information and use that to cheat in prediction markets, but it is also possible that some people are just taking risks with their money, and actually winning, and then they are also being dragged into the issue without doing anything.

The activity of those accounts was suspicious. They had placed bets just hours before the attack on Iran and six accounts had won $1 million. The fact that they had placed bets in such a short period of time is the main reason for suspicion. It is certain that the insider did not use his own name or did it through someone else, but without any evidence of this, there is no way to call them criminals. As far as I know, there is no evidence against them that they did it through any insider. Maybe they placed the bets based on assumptions or maybe they found out at the last minute. Once this is confirmed, legal action can be taken against them otherwise, they are not considered as guilty.

[Die_empty]

The activity of those accounts was suspicious. They had placed bets just hours before the attack on Iran and six accounts had won $1 million. The fact that they had placed bets in such a short period of time is the main reason for suspicion. It is certain that the insider did not use his own name or did it through someone else, but without any evidence of this, there is no way to call them criminals. As far as I know, there is no evidence against them that they did it through any insider. Maybe they placed the bets based on assumptions or maybe they found out at the last minute. Once this is confirmed, legal action can be taken against them otherwise, they are not considered as guilty.

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who is a U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant; Michele Spagnuolo, a Google Engineer and White House Teleprompter Operator Gabriel Perez are a few of the people who have been investigated and indicted for insider trading in prediction platforms. These are just small bettors who are used as sacrificial lambs. I presume that there are big-time insider bettors within the close circle of the present US government. I suspect that some of these government officials are profiting from confidential information.

[Ronsbit]

Well it doesn't surprises me anymore because it has been so before now. His kitchen cabinet are all known for their acts and it's nothing new anymore. Like master like followers so it is with Trump and his entire clique.
If his son makes such an investment, they are all business related and we all know what they are capable of doing. The law van not restrict him from investing his money where he deems fit and necessary to make profit.

Insider trading certainly happens all the time, but detecting it is critically difficult for US regulators. While it can be detected, accusations alone won't build a solid evidence base to actually prosecute. I think the whole world sees someone in the Trump family betting and making good money, but it's unclear how long this will continue. Until there's evidence, perhaps there never will be. In any case, we need to take a broader view and ban people who hold high-ranking positions in the US government from registering in prediction markets.

Many of them do that through proxies and since they are not directly involved, you never can tell and it would be very hard to know who is doing such. So banning officials from participating from prediction market would not stop insider information from not leaking as they always have their ways around the system.

What I think should best be done is to thoroughly investigate any government related prediction won by anybody on the prediction market because there definitely would be a link to a government official through proxy as well.

[fredericktaylor]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Yes, these issues are definitely something to think about deeply, of course their answers were already known, there must be some people involved behind them, they are involved with the government party, so they are sure about this and bought shares in a short time, if they did not know about the specific issue, they would never have bought shares. In reality, those who are the main criminals will never come forward, they will enter the prediction market through other people and embezzle the money of the common people. If this continues, the confidence of the common people in the prediction market will decrease day by day, for this it is very important to take strict measures so that the order in the prediction market returns and the common people can make predictions with confidence.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

I've even said since the emergence of prediction markets that have been discussed before that the possibility of insider games is very possible in this market, especially related to political, economic cases that basically have a plan before being published,

Sometimes it's keep surprising me to know that despite the information you pass across about prediction market and how it is being widespread of the possibility of insider influence, you will still discover a number of people interested in playing prediction market without considering at the risk, not even talk of nowadays that we are having increasing number of platforms that also supported for prediction market on what the offer.

[Ayers]

They can't ban anyone for just winning, regardless of the amount they used to make their bets, because despite the fact that there could be rigging or insider information, there is always a possibility of a coincidence, and I'll tell you why.

Now if a person wins this way, and they can him by saying that he had insider information or he cheated then the person can sue them for that, because they can't do anything without any actual proof of the gambler who they blame for cheating.

You are right that just because someone wins big, they shouldn't be called insider.
But IMO real issue here is their entire trading pattern. Whether they win big or lose big is not any issue.

Let's say I bet $10k on an event and unexpectedly won. It could be coincidence.
But what if several newly created account take only one-sided bet on same sensitive event?
If they take big position few hours before the public news comes out, isn't that suspicious?
Then when everyone profits on same outcome that statistical pattern no longer look like ordinary winning.

And speaking of actual proof. Evidence is needed for conviction in court. But there is no need for courtroom level proof in advance for any platform to start suspicious-activity investigation.

[Hispo]

They can't ban anyone for just winning, regardless of the amount they used to make their bets, because despite the fact that there could be rigging or insider information, there is always a possibility of a coincidence, and I'll tell you why.

Now if a person wins this way, and they can him by saying that he had insider information or he cheated then the person can sue them for that, because they can't do anything without any actual proof of the gambler who they blame for cheating.

You are right that just because someone wins big, they shouldn't be called insider.
But IMO real issue here is their entire trading pattern. Whether they win big or lose big is not any issue.

Let's say I bet $10k on an event and unexpectedly won. It could be coincidence.
But what if several newly created account take only one-sided bet on same sensitive event?
If they take big position few hours before the public news comes out, isn't that suspicious?
Then when everyone profits on same outcome that statistical pattern no longer look like ordinary winning.

And speaking of actual proof. Evidence is needed for conviction in court. But there is no need for courtroom level proof in advance for any platform to start suspicious-activity investigation.

I believe prediction market heavily rely on pattern recognition I order to detect suspicious activity. And so far it has worked for them to detect some people who were actually abusing their position in order to get money easily.
That was the case of the teleprompter operator of Trump, sho got arrested and also the American soldier who participated in the capture of Nicolas Maduro, who has also been indicted and prosecuted in the USA.

While those pattern recognition systems help to check and detect some insiders, I would bet there are still hundreds or even thousands who have gone undetected by months, by breaking those patterns and allowing themselves to lose some money, so they won't startle the AI on Polymarket and Kalshi.

[BALIK]

some people have privileged information, they could not have, by now it is known to everyone even to the stones that Trump or perhaps his son, have played knowing the information beforehand

It is not yet proven that Trump or his son bet using insider information. Suspicious betting pattern and proven insider trading are not same thing.

So, while declaring it can’t ensue is incorrect, stating Trump family surely did it is a much stronger assertion without proof.

I wonder if Polymarket has properly investigated funding source, account creation time, trading history, and information access of suspicious account instead of speculating about who made bet? I haven’t found any publication on these topics online. You know, advantage of Blockchain is that transaction trail is publicly visible, so investigator have opportunity to do pattern analysis.

[Julien_Olynpic]

A thought that's been occupying me lately is whether prediction markets can even exist without insiders. Is it just a matter of the peculiarities of the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms? I think it's the nature of prediction markets in general. If someone tries to create an ideal prediction market free of insiders, they'll run into significant difficulties. Without insiders, the only things that can exist are predictions for highly liquid financial markets, including the top 10 cryptocurrencies, which are more or less decentralized. Anywhere there's a strong influence of one person, insiders are likely to exist. Most predictions involving famous figures are potentially designed for insider trading.

[eisen33]

Prediction markets themselves might want to consider excluding events where insider trading is more likely to occur. But if there are enough of these events, then despite the fact that insider trading is prohibited, they may actually be encouraging it by offering markets on such events in the first place.

[TopTort777]

I like how it sounds - "possible insider trading" From side it looks like most of the predictions and trades there are done under influence of different level of insiders info. If a person makes a sports betting prediction in sport, then partly that person is guessing the result. In Polymarket or Kalshi, it seems people go to make a prediction only if they have some info that increase their chances of correct prediction. People dont go there to make random predictions.

[ZeroVinsonN]

Many of them do that through proxies and since they are not directly involved, you never can tell and it would be very hard to know who is doing such. So banning officials from participating from prediction market would not stop insider information from not leaking as they always have their ways around the system.

What I think should best be done is to thoroughly investigate any government related prediction won by anybody on the prediction market because there definitely would be a link to a government official through proxy as well.

If I worked for the government and I wanted to trade on a piece of information that I already know about but the general masses don't then I simply have to just have someone else do it for me and we can split the winnings, of course making sure that it doesn't get linked back to me in anyway.
The biggest mistake people can make is thinking that banning a particular group of people will make it impossible for them to participate in prediction markets, as long as they are smart enough they will find a way around those restrictions.

[Somegory]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

What do you mean by possibly?
Insiders and prediction markets are forever together.

Even if some law is restricting some institutions it will be in the front not behind close doors, I am telling you that insider's will always be a part of prediction markets and nothing can stand it their way.

They will rather start using aliases and body double or something to get passed any future restrictions, who are the ones benefiting the most from prediction markets if not insiders?

[Localhostspeed]

I am actually aware that "some" crises that happen in the world today (including natural disasters) are orchestrated by some selfish personalities just so they can benefit via the crypto market, the forex market, economic benefits, and so on. I personally wouldn't be surprised if that's the case in this situation as well.

Or probably information concerning that might have been leaked to the individual involved, or maybe they just wanted to have fun. But we should be aware of things that are very much possible. Nothing is too wild to be done anymore.

This is why I want people to make it make sense when I see millions on predictions market, why would any person from another country be so interested in making bet about what's happening in another country crisis. You don't live there, you don't even stay there but you are confident that you can predict the outcome and not just with small money but big amount of money and to top it all, they do win as expected and you want to convince the public isn't an insider.

You can't tell me that somebody will be willing to bet millions if they are not big and if they are big, it mans they have connections and information from other people that the public never knows. It's this information they have they use to make money from public that is predicting against them. If they check some of them, they might be part of the people that are making some regions so hard to live because of lack of peace there.