Possible insider trading on Polymarket

[letteredhub]

Now if a person wins this way, and they can him by saying that he had insider information or he cheated then the person can sue them for that, because they can't do anything without any actual proof of the gambler who they blame for cheating. It is true that some people might have insider information and use that to cheat in prediction markets, but it is also possible that some people are just taking risks with their money, and actually winning, and then they are also being dragged into the issue without doing anything.

It's a very delicate situation that must be taken with utmost careful measures in whatever action the polymarket would want to take on this. At the moment it's just an issue of suspicion and allegation that is without facts to prove if it's actually an insider work or not. It's also possible that it's just some random users that took risk and luckily it coincided with what mis looking like a cheat pattern by insiders. I was wondering if those 6 users wallet failed to get the prediction correctly if polymarket would still have worry about their registration time and prediction.

[YellowSwap]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Why are you surprised? If money isn't this matter why is a whole America president creating his own meme coins and enriched his family?

Biden son is also launching his own memecoin tomorrow, why are they doing all these if not for money? Prediction markets are one of the easiest way to make money, not just anyhow money but millions.

This is why insiders will always support prediction markets with every power they have, all these powerful people cares about is making alot of money as quick as possible, you can't tell me that someone close to trump isn't part of it all.

[Jubilee58]

In this case, there has to be suspicion because this prediction was made, and not quite long there was an attack against Iran. The insider trading in the poly market can be possible because it is only an insider that can get such information that is suppose to remain hidden to people. In gambling including sports betting, many things transpires an insider can release an information that is meant to be a secret, and avoiding such release of information is almost impossible, and this is the advantage of setting a limit in your wins so that the prediction market will not go bankrupt.
It is advisable for any prediction market to sound it as a note of warning to their employees about the release of insider information or even partake in gambling, and whoever that indulges in such activity is meant to be sanctioned as well.

[Emitdama]

I like how it sounds - "possible insider trading" From side it looks like most of the predictions and trades there are done under influence of different level of insiders info. If a person makes a sports betting prediction in sport, then partly that person is guessing the result. In Polymarket or Kalshi, it seems people go to make a prediction only if they have some info that increase their chances of correct prediction. People dont go there to make random predictions.

Prediction markets always have great influence from insiders because they usually work aggressively when they have enough insider reports. In any case, things have never been separate from each other; due to recent increased activity, things are going into peak level, which is bringing interesting situations because people are making profits with their influence and insider information.

Having enough knowledge and then entering into this always works, few big names are already have good engagement while many are doing things with their front men because they always want to live anonymously where regulations are also favouring this currently but one thing is sure it is going to be having drastic changes because without changes it is not going to be staying on same level for long time, it's only matter of time in my opinion.

[bangjoe]

I've even said since the emergence of prediction markets that have been discussed before that the possibility of insider games is very possible in this market, especially related to political, economic cases that basically have a plan before being published,

Sometimes it's keep surprising me to know that despite the information you pass across about prediction market and how it is being widespread of the possibility of insider influence, you will still discover a number of people interested in playing prediction market without considering at the risk, not even talk of nowadays that we are having increasing number of platforms that also supported for prediction market on what the offer.

Idk, I don't even know why it all happened, maybe at the same time that they were having fun there, who knows?
I am also a gambler and know how dopamine explodes in the head when getting a jackpot according to personal predictions, it excites life especially with multiples of money earned, I think you have not felt it.
Whether or not they care about the bookies playing them, they don't care when they win and still hold the money, they will care when the money is gone and even the food they ask for, and they will say Fuck prediction markets. lol

[sompitonov]

Idk, I don't even know why it all happened, maybe at the same time that they were having fun there, who knows?
I am also a gambler and know how dopamine explodes in the head when getting a jackpot according to personal predictions, it excites life especially with multiples of money earned, I think you have not felt it.
Whether or not they care about the bookies playing them, they don't care when they win and still hold the money, they will care when the money is gone and even the food they ask for, and they will say Fuck prediction markets. lol

I think prediction markets have captured the imagination and passion of many because players simply think that if they're unlucky at the casino, bookmakers, or other gambling games, they'll definitely get lucky on the prediction markets. Most players think of this as a belief in their own exceptionalism and overconfidence, which is often unfounded. Of course, everyone wants to think positively, but let's instead consider what our expertise is and whether we have the edge to win consistently. It's high time for many players to open their eyes to what's happening and convince themselves they can win... I wouldn't be surprised if something else gambling emerges and a crowd of players flocks to it.

[AVE5]

I've even said since the emergence of prediction markets that have been discussed before that the possibility of insider games is very possible in this market, especially related to political, economic cases that basically have a plan before being published, and people who know it must be looking for ways to make it a valuable value, can sell A1 info or he uses it himself through the hands of others.
But some people are indeed apathetic with it all and think that they are looking for luck with the similarity of the answers that some small group already knows.

If we were in a physical conference to discuss about this insider of a thing in the prediction market, I'd ask you to speak louder so that those at the back seat can heat you because you just hit the nail at the head. Lol.
It's very convince able to believe what you've said because for anyone to win in the prediction market and will be accused of cheats of an insider leaking information means they never expected anyone to win so, whoever that wins is in suspect.
The prediction market has also been made a smart contract that the insiders could even sell the game or places the bet under someone else account.
It even seems more fun as both parties are stressing on outsmarting themselves in the market while regulations about the insiders bets tightens. So the smart ones will always win.

[danherbias07]

In this case, there has to be suspicion because this prediction was made, and not quite long there was an attack against Iran. The insider trading in the poly market can be possible because it is only an insider that can get such information that is suppose to remain hidden to people. In gambling including sports betting, many things transpires an insider can release an information that is meant to be a secret, and avoiding such release of information is almost impossible, and this is the advantage of setting a limit in your wins so that the prediction market will not go bankrupt.
It is advisable for any prediction market to sound it as a note of warning to their employees about the release of insider information or even partake in gambling, and whoever that indulges in such activity is meant to be sanctioned as well.

It's very different in sports betting. Most of the time, it will come from the players, and they will be the ones profiting from what they do. In a professional sport, it is illegal because they have a contract that doesn't allow them to manipulate their stats or, worse, throw the game just for the reason of winning their own bets.
The consequences for those crime are very harsh and it means losing their contract and being black listed to the league and other leagues if the administrations will go to such lengths to make that player pay for his mistakes.

Being an insider in prediction markets is not that harsh. Yet. What he could've won may actually fill the mistake that he has made and maybe leave some profits and another job to look forward to. If a person can somehow change the results, I bet he will be hired by someone to do it again while he is hidden and paid.

[Taskford]

In this case, there has to be suspicion because this prediction was made, and not quite long there was an attack against Iran. The insider trading in the poly market can be possible because it is only an insider that can get such information that is suppose to remain hidden to people. In gambling including sports betting, many things transpires an insider can release an information that is meant to be a secret, and avoiding such release of information is almost impossible, and this is the advantage of setting a limit in your wins so that the prediction market will not go bankrupt.
It is advisable for any prediction market to sound it as a note of warning to their employees about the release of insider information or even partake in gambling, and whoever that indulges in such activity is meant to be sanctioned as well.

It's very different in sports betting. Most of the time, it will come from the players, and they will be the ones profiting from what they do. In a professional sport, it is illegal because they have a contract that doesn't allow them to manipulate their stats or, worse, throw the game just for the reason of winning their own bets.
The consequences for those crime are very harsh and it means losing their contract and being black listed to the league and other leagues if the administrations will go to such lengths to make that player pay for his mistakes.

Being an insider in prediction markets is not that harsh. Yet. What he could've won may actually fill the mistake that he has made and maybe leave some profits and another job to look forward to. If a person can somehow change the results, I bet he will be hired by someone to do it again while he is hidden and paid.

I think depends on those people involve on the manipulation, but usually the easy one get caught doing this are the players and referees.

But if you search about this insider betting or any manipulation involve in this section. You will see those old discussion and incidents happened in the past.

Its maybe not harsh, because those insiders have great advantage. But I think this is unethical knowing that they are taking advantage with the information they get and to many people might get affected with those information's they have and any possible manipulative actions did on prediction market or even on sports betting sites.

[Antotena]

I think prediction markets have captured the imagination and passion of many because players simply think that if they're unlucky at the casino, bookmakers, or other gambling games, they'll definitely get lucky on the prediction markets. Most players think of this as a belief in their own exceptionalism and overconfidence, which is often unfounded. Of course, everyone wants to think positively, but let's instead consider what our expertise is and whether we have the edge to win consistently. It's high time for many players to open their eyes to what's happening and convince themselves they can win... I wouldn't be surprised if something else gambling emerges and a crowd of players flocks to it.

I think because prediction is about any events and not limited to what casino brings to them unlike predictions where people can deliberately ask for a event to be listed and people are going to bet on the outcome. That's why people are running after the trend but where there is a good intention, you should expect people with bad intentions too, there is no way an event with possibilities can't be manipulated, people with influence fan change an outcome.

The crypto trading market is full of market manipulation, the SEC has fight it hard to control it but I don't think that till now people that manipulate market has stop, I think because of influence of people to trigger what's happening, some countries has banned prediction market from there country, some of the prediction market affect their country especially when it involves politics and the life of the people.

[OgNasty]

The nature of prediction markets almost makes it built for insider trading. It gives people “in the know” a reward for their knowledge. I’m still not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but I am sure it will become a dangerous thing in the future when people show how far they are willing to go in order to win some money from a bet.

[xenomorfo]

If we were in a physical conference to discuss about this insider of a thing in the prediction market, I'd ask you to speak louder so that those at the back seat can heat you because you just hit the nail at the head. Lol.
It's very convince able to believe what you've said because for anyone to win in the prediction market and will be accused of cheats of an insider leaking information means they never expected anyone to win so, whoever that wins is in suspect.
The prediction market has also been made a smart contract that the insiders could even sell the game or places the bet under someone else account.
It even seems more fun as both parties are stressing on outsmarting themselves in the market while regulations about the insiders bets tightens. So the smart ones will always win.

I still don't understand why you get involved in these adventures, guys let's be clear
This is a rigged game.

if you play hoping to find a way to cheat us, cheating together with him, you are lucky
but know that you are playing an unfair game and that you could lose lots of money just because someone is being clever.

I stay away from it.

[Awaklara]

I was wondering if those 6 users wallet failed to get the prediction correctly if polymarket would still have worry about their registration time and prediction.

Of course, there would not be a situation like that. Investigations occur because there is suspicion based on events and facts. They would not conduct an investigation if they did not experience a loss. Such a situation certainly disrupts their business, so it is only natural that they take action. Not just in the prediction market, in casinos, we also often encounter cases like that.

[Obari]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

I don't know why but I think it will difficult to hold these traders for any wrong doings because it can as well be regarded that they all did a random bet and I still wonder how that kind of result would be manipulated if the fore men are not in government and don't have a very critical relationship and understanding with the president to be able to know and get such information.
Except the judge isn't being fare, with a good legal counsel, I think there wouldn't be any actual evidence against the except ip is been used to investigate and with ip address, it can still be denied.

[boyptc]

I think depends on those people involve on the manipulation, but usually the easy one get caught doing this are the players and referees.

In sports, that's true.

Most of the athletes who have been doing any manipulation against to the result that gives them more odds is what are being caught.

They're betting against their teams and a dirty play or move that they do changes the result of the game in favor of the opponent.

But that's going to be in favor of their bet. I cannot still think why these athletes are putting their careers on the line even if they're not yet near to retirement.

I'm not saying that they should tolerate and do it when they're nearly done with their careers, no. There's no reason of doing it.

[lombok]

In sports, that's true.

Most of the athletes who have been doing any manipulation against to the result that gives them more odds is what are being caught.

They're betting against their teams and a dirty play or move that they do changes the result of the game in favor of the opponent.

But that's going to be in favor of their bet. I cannot still think why these athletes are putting their careers on the line even if they're not yet near to retirement.

I'm not saying that they should tolerate and do it when they're nearly done with their careers, no. There's no reason of doing it.

The current sports audit is usually able to identify any anomaly in the acts of both athletes and officials with astounding precision. Literary greed, tolerance to extremities in the dark, inhibits critical thinking, which leads to high risk, and misplaced judgments. Today's greed is simply destroying the integrity of competition.

Dismissal and loss of official working permits leave the journey of those who make wealth as a tragedy. Net income in the long term is eliminated immediately, but in its place, it is continuously replaced by social sanctions. After forfeiting self respect, the heavy regret accompanies all the steps of life.

[GxSTxV]

Coincidence, luck or randomness, I don’t really believe in that, especially that this bet prediction happened just few moments before the attack which gives it even more like zeroes to the 0.1% chance to happen or how someone on earth can have this hunch?
I believe that this insider can be from close relatives to the responsible and the ones who knew about what’s going to happen.

We cannot also say that this is unfair since everything is happening inside the system is not fair, you have a choice to not bet, it is a choice to not gamble or predict against this. The inside is free to take that share of money just like other who bet, even though it’s not fair.

[Hispo]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

I don't know why but I think it will difficult to hold these traders for any wrong doings because it can as well be regarded that they all did a random bet and I still wonder how that kind of result would be manipulated if the fore men are not in government and don't have a very critical relationship and understanding with the president to be able to know and get such information.
Except the judge isn't being fare, with a good legal counsel, I think there wouldn't be any actual evidence against the except ip is been used to investigate and with ip address, it can still be denied.

Those bettors can still be prosecuted if the are found to be close to the president of the USA or working for the military of the United States. We have already seen some instances of military people getting arrested because of their involvement in the capture of Nicolas Maduro and also betting on themselves capturing him and taking him before American justice.

It is not impossible to catch inside traders, even if they use a service like Polymarket, which is rather pseudo-anonymous.
The problem is the amount of people who may be partaking in inside trading and have connections with the justice system as well, so they can get away with it.

[laspol65]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns
Is this not suspicious?

It seems suspicious to me as well; they suddenly created accounts and placed massive bets, and—true to their plan—the event unfolded exactly when intended. Yet, it appears no one has been arrested so far; they executed the scheme so flawlessly that no suspicions were raised at the time, though in hindsight, it looks highly dubious. They secured the funds in a way that left no trace of evidence; however, if those six individuals were to be arrested,
the truth would finally come to light—specifically, who they are, where they obtained the information about the event, and how they managed to place such high-stakes bets and win so easily. Until they are apprehended, uncovering the actual facts remains difficult.

[GreatArkansas]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns
Is this not suspicious?

It seems suspicious to me as well; they suddenly created accounts and placed massive bets, and—true to their plan—the event unfolded exactly when intended. Yet, it appears no one has been arrested so far; they executed the scheme so flawlessly that no suspicions were raised at the time, though in hindsight, it looks highly dubious. They secured the funds in a way that left no trace of evidence; however, if those six individuals were to be arrested,
the truth would finally come to light—specifically, who they are, where they obtained the information about the event, and how they managed to place such high-stakes bets and win so easily. Until they are apprehended, uncovering the actual facts remains difficult.

Same feeling here; sudden accounts plus perfect timing do not look clean to me. I'm curious how these can be prevented, especially with all the KYC we have, but I don't know on Polymarket how they are solving this issue.
For now it is still hard to prove anything for sure, so the truth stays stuck until someone gets arrested.