Possible insider trading on Polymarket

[Bluedrem]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

I think that the most manipulated market is the poly market, and several other events, including this one, are indicating this. Even a few days ago, when President Trump arrested Venezuelan Prime Minister Nicolas Maduro, some such predictions were made in the poly market. I think there may be people close to the White House who have such information. In the case you mentioned, only those who are deeply involved in the White House will know whether President Trump will attack Iran.
To me, the poly market seems like a really rigged prediction market.

[Ronsbit]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Does this surprise you? Trump and his inner circle are used to making money off everything—at every opportunity, by any means necessary. I’ll just quote one of the latest headlines: "The investment fund 1789 Capital, of which Donald Trump Jr., the U.S. president’s son, is a partner, is investing up to $300 million in the Polymarket platform" - just like that?

Well it doesn't surprises me anymore because it has been so before now. His kitchen cabinet are all known for their acts and it's nothing new anymore. Like master like followers so it is with Trump and his entire clique.
If his son makes such an investment, they are all business related and we all know what they are capable of doing. The law van not restrict him from investing his money where he deems fit and necessary to make profit.

[Smartprofit]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

It seems like insiders have a promising profit opportunity, because the existence of polymarkets and the like. I think any prediction market can be exploited by insiders to reap extraordinary profits. After all, they have the "answer key" that they can exploit thanks to the prediction market. Even if the prediction market requires KYC on its platform, insiders still have a way (loophole) to profit from the information they possess.

I believe such bets are unfair, as they would be highly advantageous to certain parties (insiders) and detrimental to those without inside information. I believe it would be fair if the outcome were unknown to anyone, but the question is: "is that possible?" I don't think so, especially with bets on predictions of military attacks, as the OP mentioned. As far as I know, betting on prediction markets is a battle between fellow bettors, right? If that is true, then I think it makes it even more unfair. Cmiiw.

On the one hand, this is true, but on the other, it's not... 🙋

Prediction markets aren't just gambling establishments; they're also oracles that separate truth from lies. Traditional exchanges determine the fair price of certain assets. Prediction markets determine the veracity of certain events. In our age of ubiquitous lies and fraud, the existence of such online platforms is a very important social factor.

If we consider a situation in which two uninformed players play against each other, it's a classic game of chance. It can be compared to a coin toss (heads or tails).

If there's an insider on the platform, it's a game of skill (like poker). To succeed in this game, a player must not only understand how the world works but also be aware of the insider's presence.

As for betting on the outbreak of hostilities, opinions differ.  The following argument can be used to justify such bets: "If an insider publishes information about the outbreak of hostilities in advance (through bets), then civilians are given the opportunity to evacuate the combat zone in a timely manner." Although, of course, I would like the world to be completely free of wars and hostilities... In any case, politicians, not insiders, are to blame for their occurrence...

[sompitonov]

Well it doesn't surprises me anymore because it has been so before now. His kitchen cabinet are all known for their acts and it's nothing new anymore. Like master like followers so it is with Trump and his entire clique.
If his son makes such an investment, they are all business related and we all know what they are capable of doing. The law van not restrict him from investing his money where he deems fit and necessary to make profit.

Insider trading certainly happens all the time, but detecting it is critically difficult for US regulators. While it can be detected, accusations alone won't build a solid evidence base to actually prosecute. I think the whole world sees someone in the Trump family betting and making good money, but it's unclear how long this will continue. Until there's evidence, perhaps there never will be. In any case, we need to take a broader view and ban people who hold high-ranking positions in the US government from registering in prediction markets.

[Asuspawer09]

Anything could have happened at this point since the bets are already allowed, so I guess the problem was the bet itself, since it was just prone to insiders, people inside could easily take advantage of that, it wasn't like it wasn't allowed, right? I mean, they could make an account at any moment and bet on it. Coincidence was also a thing, so there might not be anything suspicious about that. I mean, if people were betting on that, they might already know the risk of it, so they know that there might be something like this that could happen.

I just don't see this kind of bet as a good thing for anything, since it was more like war. I mean, it was already similar to Squid Game, where it involves people's lives, so this should not be allowed, in my opinion.

Based on the news, some contracts were bought just hours before the first explosion was reported, and some were priced around only $0.10. If this was really just random chance, the timing feels too close.

About the point that these people already knew the risk from the start, I think that is different from an insider who already knew about an attack plan that had not happened yet. The risk here usually means winning or losing a bet, not someone getting leaked information before it happens.

I agree, bets tied to an attack or people's lives are a different category and should not really be allowed as something to bet on.

I mean, in the first place, maybe the bets are already suspicious. I mean, who would bet that there will be an attack on Iran before February ends? It might sound like they already know that something is going to happen, or maybe im just overthinking it, since there gamblers are usually just bet on anything and they wouldn't really going to think twice about it they just want to do it and test their luck on something.

It could be an insider or someone who's part of the planning. They know that this is an advantage on them and that's why they're not letting it pass that they can't profit from what's about to happen and they really did made some profit in it after the attack. But did polymarket allowed the 6 accounts to withdraw the profits that they have made? because they'll also find it suspicious then.

Maybe they were able to withdraw, I mean, they couldn't figure it out that easily if some people are able to win, they probably did the investigation first before banning the accounts. For huge websites like them, it's probably going to be an issue to some if there are no payouts or withdrawals on huge money winnings.

[Emitdama]

I think that the most manipulated market is the poly market, and several other events, including this one, are indicating this. Even a few days ago, when President Trump arrested Venezuelan Prime Minister Nicolas Maduro, some such predictions were made in the poly market. I think there may be people close to the White House who have such information. In the case you mentioned, only those who are deeply involved in the White House will know whether President Trump will attack Iran.
To me, the poly market seems like a really rigged prediction market.

Okay, but what would polymarket get for being rugged in the first place? If we say that they provide such predictions where an insider will make a bet on the right option, while others who have no information will bet on the other option and lose, in that case, we should also say that the market is basically also under the control of those who are making those bets or at least providing those betting options in the first place, otherwise, the market itself is still going to lose money if the ones making informed bets are making more money than the whole lot betting against them are losing, which makes the market lose money.

So basically, if we say that the market itself is rigged, then we should assume that Trump's administration is the one running that market, and since they have insider information about everything that becomes an available option for betting in the market, they make large bets on the option that would make the majority on the other side lose money, while they make money, and in case the majority chooses the option which could be correct, they can manipulate by not making that thing happen. Still, these are just theories, we don't know the actual truth.

[Localhostspeed]

Insider trading certainly happens all the time, but detecting it is critically difficult for US regulators. While it can be detected, accusations alone won't build a solid evidence base to actually prosecute. I think the whole world sees someone in the Trump family betting and making good money, but it's unclear how long this will continue. Until there's evidence, perhaps there never will be. In any case, we need to take a broader view and ban people who hold high-ranking positions in the US government from registering in prediction markets.

This is why they target many wallets activities and how they make money on the prediction site. There was a person on Polymarket, he was caught because he is an insider person and this person was connected to the government. What happened was that the day Manduro was arrested and the oil market drop, the account was barely registered some hours before it went live and open the prediction and end up making millions from what happened.

Long story short, one of the operative was the person that leaked the information to open such prediction. I'm not sure what went down but even Polymarket hates insider trading, they don't like the fact that some people are using their platform to want to make activities looks like they are trying to using the platform by the team to make money, they want to make the platform 100% better for everyone.

[suzanne5223]

Insider trading certainly happens all the time, but detecting it is critically difficult for US regulators.

I don't agree with this.
Yes, insider trading happens all the time, but it's not difficult for the regulator to detect since the prediction market in question is a KYC enabled platform, and the prediction market game regulator of the US can't tell us that they don't have the private record of people can be involve in insider trading.

While it can be detected, accusations alone won't build a solid evidence base to actually prosecute.

An accusation alone is not enough to prosecute someone, but this goes beyond an accusation because it involves classified information that isn't public; when someone can easily choose the right answer in such games, they're technically not an ordinary individual.
This is how the prediction market knows people who are involved in insider trading unless there's a powerful person involved that don't allow them to take the right measures.

[yixichloro2xx]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Does this surprise you? Trump and his inner circle are used to making money off everything—at every opportunity, by any means necessary. I’ll just quote one of the latest headlines: "The investment fund 1789 Capital, of which Donald Trump Jr., the U.S. president’s son, is a partner, is investing up to $300 million in the Polymarket platform" - just like that?

Well it doesn't surprises me anymore because it has been so before now. His kitchen cabinet are all known for their acts and it's nothing new anymore. Like master like followers so it is with Trump and his entire clique.
If his son makes such an investment, they are all business related and we all know what they are capable of doing. The law van not restrict him from investing his money where he deems fit and necessary to make profit.

Both father and son wealth has grown significantly since 2025. Trump jumps of $2bn + to 7bn while his son is worth almost $150m. They've moved on from Crypto scam to polymarket. That man is just after his pockets and his incompetent cabinets can't even advise him properly.  This made me remember a rumour about Trump media and technology group, where people can pay upto thousands of dollars to get first access to information . We know how Trump's speech alone can move the market, of the rumour is true then people who pays will be profiting massively from those info. They have to turned the presidency power for their business interests.

[ColdLava40]

Insider trading certainly happens all the time, but detecting it is critically difficult for US regulators.

I don't agree with this.
Yes, insider trading happens all the time, but it's not difficult for the regulator to detect since the prediction market in question is a KYC enabled platform, and the prediction market game regulator of the US can't tell us that they don't have the private record of people can be involve in insider trading.

While it can be detected, accusations alone won't build a solid evidence base to actually prosecute.

An accusation alone is not enough to prosecute someone, but this goes beyond an accusation because it involves classified information that isn't public; when someone can easily choose the right answer in such games, they're technically not an ordinary individual.
This is how the prediction market knows people who are involved in insider trading unless there's a powerful person involved that don't allow them to take the right measures.

If they go simply by accusing anyone of having information then persecution will not be accurate.

Linking with kyc will making the work easier for them because that way they will be able to back track the connection of individuals with any person in a position that's able to give them access to information. Would be a tremendous amount of work, but it is possible.

Well it doesn't surprises me anymore because it has been so before now. His kitchen cabinet are all known for their acts and it's nothing new anymore. Like master like followers so it is with Trump and his entire clique.
If his son makes such an investment, they are all business related and we all know what they are capable of doing. The law van not restrict him from investing his money where he deems fit and necessary to make profit.

Trump is a business expert. He is willing to do anything to make the bags. I still wonder how he got the inspiration to sell out insider information to those willing to buy.

[Hazink]

Trump is a business expert. He is willing to do anything to make the bags. I still wonder how he got the inspiration to sell out insider information to those willing to buy.

According to how he positioned the announcement, which I don't know if it has taken effect already or not, he's monetizing his social media space, which is the truth social those who paid for the premium will have to see news when it's posted earlier before free users which I believe he can defend using that approach, but we all know what he's doing is no difference from insider trading that people are being prosecuted for.

[CryptoBuds]

I think that the most manipulated market is the poly market, and several other events, including this one, are indicating this.

Yes I agree that some trader may have insider information.
Timing and pattern of that incident shows that it is not just any simple guess or luck.
Opening a new wallet and buying share for as cheap as $0.10 cent just few hour before the attack itself cannot be done by any normal person. Again, the prediction was matched to millimeter perfection without any mistake, what a surprise!
It is clear that some of these wallet have very strategically raised fund just some time ago and bet only on that particular date.

But because this incident Polymarket is rigged, it cannot be said in any way.
If Polymarket itself is rigged, how does platform gain or lose if those informed trader wins! no way.

[Crypto Library]

Both father and son wealth has grown significantly since 2025. Trump jumps of $2bn + to 7bn while his son is worth almost $150m. They've moved on from Crypto scam to polymarket. That man is just after his pockets and his incompetent cabinets can't even advise him properly.  This made me remember a rumour about Trump media and technology group, where people can pay upto thousands of dollars to get first access to information . We know how Trump's speech alone can move the market, of the rumour is true then people who pays will be profiting massively from those info. They have to turned the presidency power for their business interests.

At first I thought that how can people actually bet on the poly market when it is already an open secret that most of the bets on the poly market are made by insider traders. Where betting means facing losses.
But then I did a little digging and realized that the poly market is currently acting like one kind of stock market or crypto market. And in those two markets where this Trump and his son have already been done insider trading and as well as legally scamming, lol.
For this reason, I currently do not believe in Trump or the reasons surrounding Trump and, to that extent, I would never bet on trade or polymarket.

[Hispo]

Trump is a business expert. He is willing to do anything to make the bags. I still wonder how he got the inspiration to sell out insider information to those willing to buy.

According to how he positioned the announcement, which I don't know if it has taken effect already or not, he's monetizing his social media space, which is the truth social those who paid for the premium will have to see news when it's posted earlier before free users which I believe he can defend using that approach, but we all know what he's doing is no difference from insider trading that people are being prosecuted for.

If i recall correctly, there was some lawsuit going on which was supposed to stop Trump and truth social from partaking in this traffic of privileged information, i dont know how that is going, though.
If Trump was not president of the USA, he would be indicted already for trading insider information in exchange for literal money. No CEO or person in a position of power can legally charge so people could have access to important information before the general public. It is a matter of common sense, if you asked me.

That is why I think we will have a lot of time along with prediction markets, because it seems Trump has grown fond of those companies, due to all the money he seems to be doing thanks to them, him and his family.

All this situation makes me wonder whether Trump will get prosecuted after he is done with his second term, because he has allegedly committed many crimes during his campaign and also during this second term of his presidency.

[Churchillvv]

But because this incident Polymarket is rigged, it cannot be said in any way.
If Polymarket itself is rigged, how does platform gain or lose if those informed trader wins! no way.

The service provider itself may not be aware of what is going on but people in White House or some where close could be the people trading information and not the platform itself like polymarket. If this same kind of trade occurred during trump invasion on the Venezuela island, then it could be someone in his circle taking advantage of the inform

[Sandra_hakeem]

I don't think this is anything new. We have seen similar stuff before and it is only natural. Some people will always convert their insider knowledge to cash.

...because why not?? What's the use of having access to insider knowledge and not converting them into some huge cash profit, especially in a case of war like this? Polymarket better not complain about a thing because they have also consciously robbed millions out of people without them knowing.

Since politics is not sports and it is not regulated like sports, I don't see an issue. If you don't want to get robbed, you can always avoid making bets on politics.

Well they have a weird pattern of betting on non-sporting events so the outcome shouldn't be much of a concern to anyone else.

The smaller the scope of the bet, the more tempting for just one person involved to produce a bias that wins the bet in some way.

As simple as that. The person behind this will be so dumb to let them get him , unless someone tries to tell on him which I doubt.

[Yeesha]

Insider trading will someday ruin the business of prediction markets.
The 6 insiders' accounts that placed bets on Polymarket must be investigated. Buying shares a few hours before the explosions is enough reason for Polymarket to take actions if not, they will keep on paying insiders.

It is so shocked and surprising. I mean, where and how will someone have such great/valuable informations from, even before the explosions. They need to focus greatly on this matter. Because this issue deserves a thorough investigation to determine or know whether those accounts are actually having access to insiders information. It may be true or false, but if the allegations are proven that they are actually having access to the insiders information, and they are found guilty of that, then appropriate actions need to be taken to protect the reputation of the prediction markets.

[hedgeh0g]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

This is an absolutely sure sign that insider information is taking place and the creators of these accounts absolutely knew something. I believe in luck or coincidence, but to have six accounts at once (three would be suspicious in my opinion), and for all those registered in February, is too suspicious. But we all remember the case of the bet on Maduro's abduction, which was made by a military man with insider information. All this undermines honesty and makes ordinary people think that the Polymarket is an insider's zone.

[DrBeer]

The 6 users created an account each on Polymarket in February, bet that the United States president will launch an attack on Iran before the end of February. In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, with some contracts acquired for around $0.10, per the report.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/polymarket-traders-1m-us-iran-strike-insider-trading-concerns

Is this not suspicious?

Does this surprise you? Trump and his inner circle are used to making money off everything—at every opportunity, by any means necessary. I’ll just quote one of the latest headlines: "The investment fund 1789 Capital, of which Donald Trump Jr., the U.S. president’s son, is a partner, is investing up to $300 million in the Polymarket platform" - just like that?

Well it doesn't surprises me anymore because it has been so before now. His kitchen cabinet are all known for their acts and it's nothing new anymore. Like master like followers so it is with Trump and his entire clique.
If his son makes such an investment, they are all business related and we all know what they are capable of doing. The law van not restrict him from investing his money where he deems fit and necessary to make profit.

We are witnessing a rapid accumulation of wealth by the "new president’s" family immediately following his election. And this involves, if not all, then the vast majority of incidents related to the abuse of "official position" and actions that are effectively unchecked - actions that are often either illegal or borderline legal. But right now he is "untouchable", which is why he "does whatever he wants".

[suzanne5223]

Insider trading certainly happens all the time, but detecting it is critically difficult for US regulators.

I don't agree with this.
Yes, insider trading happens all the time, but it's not difficult for the regulator to detect since the prediction market in question is a KYC enabled platform, and the prediction market game regulator of the US can't tell us that they don't have the private record of people can be involve in insider trading.

While it can be detected, accusations alone won't build a solid evidence base to actually prosecute.

An accusation alone is not enough to prosecute someone, but this goes beyond an accusation because it involves classified information that isn't public; when someone can easily choose the right answer in such games, they're technically not an ordinary individual.
This is how the prediction market knows people who are involved in insider trading unless there's a powerful person involved that don't allow them to take the right measures.

If they go simply by accusing anyone of having information then persecution will not be accurate.

Linking with kyc will making the work easier for them because that way they will be able to back track the connection of individuals with any person in a position that's able to give them access to information. Would be a tremendous amount of work, but it is possible.

You can go and do your findings most prediction markets fish out most users that's into insider trading through abnormality, account behavior, pattern analysis, timing, and external data cross checks (background). So, i know what i am saying, and we can use how the persecutor will treat individual issue with online gambling platform issues.