Kalshi caught changing rules last minute, making users lose money

[alani123]

Seems like Kalshi will be facing a class action lawsuit by many people that felt wronged in this multi million dollar market.

I wonder what will end up happening now.
The winners of the other side already got their bag and will likely run with it.

So Kalshi might have to cover it out of pocket.

They shouldn't have managed this market with so many millions in it with such a light heart.

[nelson4lov]

~Snip

The rules of the game should be clear for every gambler to understand. If there are any ambiguous terms of service the gambling company should take such responsibility.  Changing rules after the games have been concluded is criminal. Casinos might be taking such actions because they want to make a profit by all means. Are they assuming that gamblers shouldn't win big, so that they can always make a high profit? A single wrong behaviour by the management of any organisation could destroy it. Many gamblers will not trust Kalshi because of these secret amendments to the rules.

Yeah, I don't like indulging in things without clear rules or details and also don't like when things only change in the future when the edge and moved towards the gambler. Even if I was planning to play at the prediction market anytime in the near future, I won't be doing so anymore. Such markets like this should only resolve to a true or false. No exceptions. The moment they have to come out and explain after the event has been concluded means it was a manipulative move on their part.

[passwordnow]

Just like the normal casinos that we have, they're centralized and so they can change almost everything. But this is a malpractice that must be changed from these "prediction" markets. While I've got some experience that a bet has been cancelled. There are some real reasons behind that. And with that from the image, I think that it's all about the amount that he's able to bet and win from that prediction. Too bad that kalshi have this bad practice, this is going viral now and many will stop from using them anymore.

[Orpichukwu]

So Kalshi might have to cover it out of pocket.

They shouldn't have managed this market with so many millions in it with such a light heart.

Only if the people who take them to court win against them – that's when they will have to cover the cost out of their own pocket. Let's not forget that somehow these people always try to interpret and present their TOS in a way which protects them in terms of legal actions like this. In this case I just hope the plaintiffs win against them so that others can learn from it.

[Josefjix]

Out of office isn't the same when the person died before the April 1st?
Well, there are so many explanations, meaning behind this prediction to be honest.

Firstly, death that occured actually means that, kalshi is still in office since another had not been appointed, even resign actually makes it looks the same if another person isn't appointed yet.

The same death also means that Kalshi is out of office but maybe the platform was not meaning by death, but by other means of leaving the office. I don't know.

It's complicating though.

[uchegod-21]

I don't use Kalshi, but it's always good to look at the company's TOS, and when betting on any prediction market, always save the information, screenshots, etc. so you can appeal if something like this happens

The casino TOS usually include clauses that the casino reserves the right to make any changes to its casino terms or policies or rules. If they have any clause like this, I do not think  that you can fight them. It's just for you to decide if you want to go ahead with using the casino despite the clause or use a casino with a TOS you are satisfied and comfortable with.

[STT]

That's a strange rule for sure because I think we are all human and can die, in office or just for any random reason.  Doesn't have to be death via missile, but if they said well war represents force majeure; this would at least represent standard terms in many contracts.  
  I have to agree with OP, its unfair practise and besides that the change of terms after bet placed is a soft default.  

Unless it legal based just changing rules mid game, such a change to self benefit those who have the power of the rule change is horribly biased behaviour.

[MainIbem]

What a silly way to outsmart bettors, I'll never use them again after that incident, I wonder how they expected him to go out of office if not through the way he left and it doesn't matter whether it's death or not. Infact if he wasn't eliminated there's no way he would've gone out of office, he would've hide in his bunker like he normally does before his death and give command from there. Kalshi just tried to outsmart their customers with rules but like I said that's a silly way to be smart cause they'll lose the trust of many customers thereby ruining their
reputation.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

What a silly way to outsmart bettors, I'll never use them again after that incident, I wonder how they expected him to go out of office if not through the way he left and it doesn't matter whether it's death or not. Infact if he wasn't eliminated there's no way he would've gone out of office, he would've hide in his bunker like he normally does before his death and give command from there. Kalshi just tried to outsmart their customers with rules but like I said that's a silly way to be smart cause they'll lose the trust of many customers thereby ruining their
reputation.

Exactly the point, if the supreme leader has died a natural death while he was still in office, then that for me would have been a good reason to void the bet because death is a natural thing which every man and woman must have a taste of someday, and like you said, we all know that there is absolutely no way the Supreme leader would have left office except he was killed while still serving in office..

So for those who bet on the Supreme leader leaving office really took a big risk because they may never would have won this bet except what happened happened which is the supreme getting killed, but Kalshi decided to play it smart on their users thinking it was the right thing to do, I believe they were smiling and calling users bet on this market free and easy money for them without thinking of all the possibilities available that could lead to the Iran Supreme leader leaving office, shows their level of incompetence.

[Alpha Marine]

Lmao. They knew exactly what they did. Lol. How else was Khamenei going to leave office if not by death? A man who has been in power for over 35 years would simply step down from office? Lol. He would rather die, and that is exactly what happened. They might try to justify it by taking a moral ground, but it's all bs and laughable.
This is my issue with companies like this. They do something shady and try to make you look like the bad guy. The emotional blackmail tactics should have been stale by now, but unfortunately, they still work every time.
You're allowed to place a bet on wars that kill hundreds of children, but when the bet is directly related to the death of a person, they act like their conscience wouldn't let them do that, and you're a bad person for betting on the death of a person.

[Ishicryptic]

What a silly way to outsmart bettors, I'll never use them again after that incident, I wonder how they expected him to go out of office if not through the way he left and it doesn't matter whether it's death or not. Infact if he wasn't eliminated there's no way he would've gone out of office, he would've hide in his bunker like he normally does before his death and give command from there. Kalshi just tried to outsmart their customers with rules but like I said that's a silly way to be smart cause they'll lose the trust of many customers thereby ruining their
reputation.

I've never bet on a prediction site before and when I'm ready to Kalshi, won't be an option for me because of this daylight scam, they don't have any justification not to pay winners after the Iranian supreme leader passed on. Clearly they didn't mention anything about death as a clause not to pay winners but after it happened they found an ingeniuin reason not to pay out. Prediction and gambling sites goes far in business when they mantain trust, if they lose it that means that their businesses are gradually going down until it shuts down. If a prediction site wants to set new rules and requirements then it shouldn't apply to predictors that have already placed their bets

[Cointxz]

What a silly way to outsmart bettors, I'll never use them again after that incident, I wonder how they expected him to go out of office if not through the way he left and it doesn't matter whether it's death or not. Infact if he wasn't eliminated there's no way he would've gone out of office, he would've hide in his bunker like he normally does before his death and give command from there. Kalshi just tried to outsmart their customers with rules but like I said that's a silly way to be smart cause they'll lose the trust of many customers thereby ruining their
reputation.

I've never bet on a prediction site before and when I'm ready to Kalshi, won't be an option for me because of this daylight scam, they don't have any justification not to pay winners after the Iranian supreme leader passed on. Clearly they didn't mention anything about death as a clause not to pay winners but after it happened they found an ingeniuin reason not to pay out. Prediction and gambling sites goes far in business when they mantain trust, if they lose it that means that their businesses are gradually going down until it shuts down. If a prediction site wants to set new rules and requirements then it shouldn't apply to predictors that have already placed their bets

Yeah this is some complication about prediction market that has less description on the bet they are offering. Due to the nature of the general condition, bookie will always find a loophole on of their offer especially if the sentencing was intentionally leave as vague.

They will just add the addiction condition on the ToS that will give them free ticket to not pay players and at the same time collect losing bets.

This is why I still avoid prediction market and still use regular bookie that offer much clear betting options.

[qwertyup23]

Out of office is out of office because the only way that can be achieved is through death since no one in Iran will betray the Supreme Leader of Iran in order to kick him out of office. The prediction means anything can happen to him that would make him not be in power anymore either alive or not. N

Prediction market can be manipulated and we have discussed about that in recent times. I feel for this guy because he was scammed by Kalshi, since it wasn't written in the beginning before the prediction that death case is excluded.

This is absolutely made with malice and bad faith on the side of Kalshi. Changing rules in the middle of the game without any notice, which caused great prejudice to its members, can be attributed to a scam completely.

This should definitely be called-out and avoided at all cost given that these kinds of practices will only result to your loss the moment you invest money here.

What a silly way to outsmart bettors, I'll never use them again after that incident, I wonder how they expected him to go out of office if not through the way he left and it doesn't matter whether it's death or not. Infact if he wasn't eliminated there's no way he would've gone out of office, he would've hide in his bunker like he normally does before his death and give command from there. Kalshi just tried to outsmart their customers with rules but like I said that's a silly way to be smart cause they'll lose the trust of many customers thereby ruining their
reputation.

Exactly! The phrase ”be out of office” includes all the necessary circumstances that make him unavailable to occupy such position. Obviously and naturally, this includes death because the latter extinguishes all your civil personality and position.

In conclusion, this is very scammy as hell and should be avoided at all cost. With that kind of last-minute changing, they basically made it impossible to win from that condition lol.

[blomen]

i don't think people have high enough expectations about the power of prediction markets. right now, you can bet on absolutely anything that could happen in the world, and as liquidity increases, the variety of these bets, people's desire to make money, and the danger of this whole system will inevitably increase. i'm sure kalshi and other prediction markets are making incredible amounts of money, but they may also be experiencing some problems due to bots that constantly take advantage of arbitrage.

ultimately, the prediction market that respects the rules and provides fair management will survive. neither kalshi nor any other prediction market can survive without caring about people's money.

[Julien_Olynpic]

The prediction platform acted incorrectly in this case. They're hiding behind the idea that betting on death is unethical, which is certainly true. However, in this case, this shouldn't have been done after the bet was placed. The most sensible solution would have been to publish a statement about the rule changes, which would have taken effect after all death bets had expired.

Incidentally, some predictions are also death bets, just in a veiled form. For example, when you bet on a US military invasion of Iran, you're essentially betting on someone's death.

[jcojci]

Seems like Kalshi will be facing a class action lawsuit by many people that felt wronged in this multi million dollar market.

I wonder what will end up happening now.
The winners of the other side already got their bag and will likely run with it.

So Kalshi might have to cover it out of pocket.

They shouldn't have managed this market with so many millions in it with such a light heart.

Greed. They want to make a lot of money so they making more market with so many millions. They can doing many things to save their business but they will facing a class action lawsuit by many people who felt wronged, they must pay the losses.

People are wonder what will happens later and hope Kalshi can refund the money. But this case seems not stop Kalshi to keep operating so we can still watching it later.

[Smartprofit]

As far as I know, prediction platforms often prohibit betting on events related to political assassinations and terrorist attacks. 🙋

These rules are introduced for moral and ethical reasons. It's unacceptable to encourage terrorists to kill people and make money from it. After all, a potential terrorist could place a bet on such an event, win, carry out a terrorist attack, and then earn money for another terrorist attack (in the future). This is unacceptable!

By the way, from all this, one can conclude that the Kalshi prediction platform considers the assassination of the Iranian leader to be an act of terrorism. 🤷

In this situation, as far as I understand, the problem is that the rules were changed at the last minute. This is, of course, incorrect. And it raises questions about the platform itself.

[KTChampions]

Lmao. They knew exactly what they did. Lol. How else was Khamenei going to leave office if not by death? A man who has been in power for over 35 years would simply step down from office? Lol. He would rather die, and that is exactly what happened. They might try to justify it by taking a moral ground, but it's all bs and laughable.
This is my issue with companies like this. They do something shady and try to make you look like the bad guy. The emotional blackmail tactics should have been stale by now, but unfortunately, they still work every time.
You're allowed to place a bet on wars that kill hundreds of children, but when the bet is directly related to the death of a person, they act like their conscience wouldn't let them do that, and you're a bad person for betting on the death of a person.

Yes, all these moral justifications are a cover for deception and fraud (ironic lol).
As I understand it, Kalshi's main feature is working in the US while complying with regulatory requirements. I'll be following this case with interest, as this key feature makes Kalshi vulnerable to lawsuits within the US. I hope those users who lost money (even in the form of lost profits) will sue this platform.
Kalshi is currently valued at 20 billion in capitalization, and this scandal could hit that figure.

[salad daging]

As far as I know, prediction platforms often prohibit betting on events related to political assassinations and terrorist attacks. 🙋

Then why did Kalshi agree to this murder bet? Was it a negligence on their part?

These rules are introduced for moral and ethical reasons. It's unacceptable to encourage terrorists to kill people and make money from it. After all, a potential terrorist could place a bet on such an event, win, carry out a terrorist attack, and then earn money for another terrorist attack (in the future). This is unacceptable!

After all it is morally and ethically unacceptable to bet on “who will die” it is not ethical at all so I can assume terrorists can also do this bet to make money from the prediction market.

In this situation, as far as I understand, the problem is that the rules were changed at the last minute. This is, of course, incorrect. And it raises questions about the platform itself.

So who is really at fault? Changing the rules at the last minute is clearly to me like there is manipulation in Kalshi only we don't know, is there a ToS in prediction market betting? I never read the ToS there.

[rdluffy]

As far as I know, prediction platforms often prohibit betting on events related to political assassinations and terrorist attacks. 🙋

These rules are introduced for moral and ethical reasons. It's unacceptable to encourage terrorists to kill people and make money from it. After all, a potential terrorist could place a bet on such an event, win, carry out a terrorist attack, and then earn money for another terrorist attack (in the future). This is unacceptable!
...

There's an interesting article here: https://www.citationneeded.news/trump-death-bets/

It says:


It's something to think about, regarding “assassination markets.”
It really could be something that influences or even stimulates something like that