Bitcoin adoption slowing; Coinbase + Bitpay is enough to make Bitcoin a fiat

[AnonyMint]

I explained in great detail, that reasonable rates of decentralized debasement of the money supply is not deleterious for the productive people. Decentralized debasement actually can dilute the lazy large capitalists who intend to capture everything by riding stored capital, and productively transfer that capital in a competitive proof-of-work to the more productive knowledge capital producers. This is done at a very gradual rate so that money still retains a store-of-value quality as well. Bitcoin's debasement rate has been very high in recent years and still going at 11% per annum, yet the price appreciated due to influx of adoption.

Would you mind explaining to a noob like me how Bitcoin is debased?

Thx

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply#Projected_Bitcoins_Long_Term

2017 End BTC supply 15750000 - 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000 = 5250000

5250000 ÷ 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000 = 0.5, i.e. 50% increase in BTC supply in 4 years.

5250000 ÷ 4  ÷ 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000 = 0.125, i.e. 12.5% increase in BTC supply in 2013.

5250000 ÷ 4  ÷ (5250000 ÷ 4 + 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000) = 0.111, i.e. 11.1% increase in BTC supply in 2014.

5250000 ÷ 4  ÷ (2 x 5250000 ÷ 4 + 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000) = 0.100, i.e. 10.0% increase in BTC supply in 2015.

5250000 ÷ 4  ÷ (3 x 5250000 ÷ 4 + 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000) = 0.091, i.e. 9.1% increase in BTC supply in 2016.


Notice in Bitcoin the new coin production schedule is designed such that rate of increase is declining and the total supply is designed to never exceed 21 million BTC coins. However, IMO that is myopic because the mining is already centralized and if the government takes over, there is no limit to what they might do with the protocol. I argued that more upthread or in the past, where I said once the masses dominate the coin userbase, they really don't care as long as they get their debt and Walmart goodies.

[1715042500]

1715042500

[1715042500]

1715042500

[trainingsengineering]

> We eat food, not bytes, and we have physical
> needs, therefore tangible assets will never
> become worthless

Fact: iron was a precious metal

Fact: commodities are on a 2000 year decline in price

Read the thread for the facts.

Knowledge is growing in relative value. Facts don't lie.

A grain of sand isn't worthless, but for all practical purposes it is. Meaning tangible things can become relatively devalued to the point where they are essentially worthless. Through enhanced knowledge tangible things can become nearly limitless (i.e. robots build robots who build tangible things), while knowledge is not fungible. Not every person has every great insight.

I think many people overlooked that you wrote trending towards zero in another post, and not zero, which is a important distinction.

[Siegfried]

I explained in great detail, that reasonable rates of decentralized debasement of the money supply is not deleterious for the productive people. Decentralized debasement actually can dilute the lazy large capitalists who intend to capture everything by riding stored capital, and productively transfer that capital in a competitive proof-of-work to the more productive knowledge capital producers. This is done at a very gradual rate so that money still retains a store-of-value quality as well. Bitcoin's debasement rate has been very high in recent years and still going at 11% per annum, yet the price appreciated due to influx of adoption.

Would you mind explaining to a noob like me how Bitcoin is debased?

Thx

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply#Projected_Bitcoins_Long_Term

2017 End BTC supply 15750000 - 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000 = 5250000

5250000 ÷ 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000 = 0.5, i.e. 50% increase in BTC supply in 4 years.

5250000 ÷ 4  ÷ 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000 = 0.125, i.e. 12.5% increase in BTC supply in 2013.

5250000 ÷ 4  ÷ (5250000 ÷ 4 + 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000) = 0.111, i.e. 11.1% increase in BTC supply in 2014.

5250000 ÷ 4  ÷ (2 x 5250000 ÷ 4 + 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000) = 0.100, i.e. 10.0% increase in BTC supply in 2015.

5250000 ÷ 4  ÷ (3 x 5250000 ÷ 4 + 2013 Start BTC supply 10500000) = 0.091, i.e. 9.1% increase in BTC supply in 2016.


Notice in Bitcoin the new coin production schedule is designed such that rate of increase is declining and the total supply is designed to never exceed 21 million BTC coins. However, IMO that is myopic because the mining is already centralized and if the government takes over, there is no limit to what they might do with the protocol. I argued that more upthread or in the past, where I said once the masses dominate the coin userbase, they really don't care as long as they get their debt and Walmart goodies.

Bitcoin mining is global. If somehow the government took over the major miners in the United States and forced them to change the protocol, wouldn't that just create a forked coin which people could choose not to use and instead keep using the real Bitcoin which is still mined throughout the rest of world and by smaller miners in the United States? For your scenario to play out, a total government takeover of the Internet (far more severe than the Great Firewall) and well as blanket observation and control of all commerce would be required. Even if it were technically possible for this regime to carry out this kind of extreme totalitarianism, I do not think it has the political capital and economic resources to do it. Nor do I think they are stupid enough to try. Power will adapt to Bitcoin, not destroy it.

[goin2mars]

The point I want to make with these photos, is notice even the ladies have stopped wearing their shorts and blue jeans and are adopting expensive clothing. This is in a third world country!

[snip]

What you see below is central bank QE ZIRP carry trade, pumping massive amount of debt into the developing world.

[snip]

Thank you for helping me to refine this point in my mind into a something that I would undoubtedly come to use. I was having trouble linking quite a few conclusions i see everywhere with presumptions I've held for a long time, and though I have had the idea put in front of me many times . . this one seemed to drive it in quite well.

This thread moves faster than my capacity to take in all the sourced links and shared insights, but I hope to be able to catch up with the discussion soon enough when I can get more time.

[alxs]

alxs, I am not ignoring you, just a wait a bit for your answer while I catch up on a few unstated matters.

You made some bold unsubstantiated statements in public and I am asking if you intend to back them up, if so, when, April 15th?

[goin2mars]

Time to learn how to use TOR anyone know of a good guide on how to set this up?

You mean browser? A great start is just downloading it. It's actually pretty friendly to use. You can take it much further, but in the very least just using the browser takes less than 5 mintues to see some great differences.

[tromp]

Perhaps multiplexing. Slow memory latency bound means we don't need very fast transient response.

Yes, multiplexing should be quite possible.
So you might fit over a thousand cores on a chip, and run over 32 instances.

What is the justification for memory interface saturated at 32 cores?

These cores do siphash in hardware, and have vastly simpler control logic,
so they generate the memory requests much faster than x86 cpus.
The number could be quite a bit less than 32. If you can get it down to a
single thread, then that itself brings further simplifications.
 

Tilera cores are 400mW, so 12.8W for 32 cores. That might be load dependent though. Are ARM or Atom CPUs more efficient?

Roughly comparable. Intel's spark is another step up in efficiency,
but is not competitive in performance.

Hopefully the community can arrange to provide to you access to a TILE-Gx now or in near future.

My best odds would be to write the company and try to get them
interested in running the benchmark themselves, as possible promotional material.
But considering Cuckoo Cycle hasn't been adopted yet, I doubt they want to invest
any effort.

[AnonyMint]

alxs, I am not ignoring you, just a wait a bit for your answer while I catch up on a few unstated matters.

You made some bold unsubstantiated statements in public and I am asking if you intend to back them up, if so, when, April 15th?

You have no idea how difficult it is for one man to answer posts here, as well as get any serious work done. If you actually tried to do what I am doing, you would realize how overloaded I am. Sorry I can't just jump when you say jump. I told you that you would know at the appropriate time. I am not into vaporware. I understand you want to make decisions or know it is going on, but even if I told you everything about everything I know, you still wouldn't know everything about what everyone else is doing which I don't know about.

You sort of pressured me upthread into making some statements (and I didn't want others to feel despair or think that Darkcoin or Zerocash are the only options) that I didn't really want to make publicly at that time. I understand you, but you don't understand me. Please be patient. I don't dislike you don't feel animosity from me there is none. You just didn't understand whereas others got the point without me having to say it, that I will not put my name as the most important developer of any anonymous altcoin that destroys the government. I think if you were in my position, I don't think you would want to end up like this.

You talk about these powerful conspiracies but then you act towards me as if you don't believe that a $trillionairie can't have any person exterminated any where in the world if it is important enough. Or perhaps you just didn't think it out. Hope you can understand now that vagueness is intentional and necessary.

Answering relevant design points and responding to clarify technology is a very high priority for me (for reasons I will not elaborate on).

[AnonyMint]

After reading this thread and a few of the links provided by Anonymint it really struck me how important not only anonymity is but also the fact that the next generation crypto should be cpu only plus zero transaction fees. The point of mining being slightly -EV but still a highly valuable feature since it allows everyone to convert fiat to crypto without any third party involved was a heureka moment for me. It's just an amazingly simple but yet extremely important feature. Not only would it solve the exchange/trust problem of bitcoin but it would also greatly facilitate the adoption of the masses.

Note I think the EV will actually be higher with perpetual debasement, because mining has to be paid for even if you pay for it with transaction fees instead. But then not only does that design create the Tragedy of the Commons I asserted upthead (see my reply to vokain), but also it charges the security to the commerce sector which you need the most to expand in order to increase the value of the coin.

Tinfoil hat investors shoot themselves in the foot with their myopic selfish greed. It starts with goldbugs not understanding what money is and not understanding basic facts about macroeconomics. Gold has never been the only money in the economy. It was always fractional reserve or coin shaving/impurities debased. Even the 1800s and the East Roman Byzantine empire were not exceptions. I was a silverbug before, so I understand very well the psychology.

I am hoping some people can figure this out rationally now that I have explained it.

P.S. I still think precious metals have a role to play, e.g. they are a hedge against chaotic outcomes, and I will own some. But they can't be the daily currency. Impossible. The high tech knowledge economy would implode and we would go into a Dark Age if these gold and silverbug hoarders (stackers) had their way. The velocity of money would fall into the abyss. Gold goes very high when there is chaos in the government and society. This coincides with a collapse in the velocity of money because investors are fearful and hoard capital (or a runaway hyperinflation in the case of a totally debased government that can't even sell its own bonds, which never happens with the reserve currency).

And even gold's global above ground supply is debased by increasing physical supply from mining a couple of percent per year.

P.S.S. I hope enough people own gold in some sort of standardized form that we can do decentralized exchange with physical meetups to trade between crypto-currency and gold. I wish the community could decide on some standard form of gold that is easy to trade without assay. And some easy test for tungsten fakes. Gold is a very compact, durable, autonomous way to physically store value without external risk. Crypto-currency has external risk because it depends on a global ledger, potentially technology with lurking bugs, and on internet communication.

Don't ask me what silver's role is now. I have no idea now, as my view has changed so much now that I see silver can't be a daily currency any more. I suppose silver is still undervalued relative to gold. I certainly thought so in the past. Silver is a high technology metal due to it being best electrical, thermal conductor, most reflective, acoustical properties, second most extrudable, etc.. But typically used only in very small amounts in such applications. Perhaps silver is headed to be very valuable in the high knowledge economy.

[AnonyMint]

[snip]

Notice in Bitcoin the new coin production schedule is designed such that rate of increase is declining and the total supply is designed to never exceed 21 million BTC coins. However, IMO that is myopic because the mining is already centralized and if the government takes over, there is no limit to what they might do with the protocol. I argued that more upthread or in the past, where I said once the masses dominate the coin userbase, they really don't care as long as they get their debt and Walmart goodies.

Bitcoin mining is global. If somehow the government took over the major miners in the United States and forced them to change the protocol, wouldn't that just create a forked coin which people could choose not to use and instead keep using the real Bitcoin which is still mined throughout the rest of world and by smaller miners in the United States? For your scenario to play out, a total government takeover of the Internet (far more severe than the Great Firewall) and well as blanket observation and control of all commerce would be required. Even if it were technically possible for this regime to carry out this kind of extreme totalitarianism, I do not think it has the political capital and economic resources to do it. Nor do I think they are stupid enough to try. Power will adapt to Bitcoin, not destroy it.

Circle CEO apparently disagrees and says the G20 will cooperate. I have also provided citations upthread about G20 declarations on their plans to cooperate.

Two or three pools control > 50% of the hash rate. That isn't the entire internet. That is only three businesses that have to be raided.

The masses won't care. Who is going to support your fork? You won't even have a majority of mining hash rate.

As for individual miners switching to another pool upon that event, note one miner in East Washington had already 6 - 7% of the total Bitcoin network hash rate and is aiming to reach 10%. ASICs concentrate mining power and this will continue to get worse.

[RAJSALLIN]

As long as the net EV is slightly negative it will prevent "professional" mining cartels to form.

When it comes to gold all in all I agree with you. Gold and silver backed currencies are a thing of the past. The only theory in which gold could possibly have an economic role in the future is the freegold theory of "Another". Although there are some serious faults in that theory as well imo. Gold has held it's value for thousands of years though but to see it re-taking a role as a medium of exchange is stretching it.

Silver does have a much larger industrial side and then there is also the fact that a lot of above ground silver is deposited in dumps so the current stock is fairly limited. Although I personally think that if silver prices started touching base with the silver bug dreamers it wouldn't take long before traditional mining companies started staking land fills. Mining old electronics has got to yield ratios in the XXg/t at least in which a high enough price and they would automatically become profitable to mine. It's not like the element silver is going to be extinct on this earth like some bugs seem to believe. But yes the industrial applications of silver does make it fairly interesting.

[alxs]

You have no idea how difficult it is for one man to answer posts here, as well as get any serious work done...

You are absolutely correct, yet again...I apologize and feel bad
(i may elaborate/expand on this reply in next day or so. In other words, grovel more...haha)

edit: I am haunted by the totalitarian nightmare that exists today and suicidal? (not best choice of word or meaning but gets point across) picturing "If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever. George Orwell"
So am desperately seeking "hope" So again apologize for pressure.  I will say flatly, not to be "fanboi" you have given me "hope" but I had "hope" with Obama so am easily fooled and a sucker.
(I have a wonderful life and family, 'suicidal' is a metaphor...'depressed' is to weak...'haunted' is accurate)

No need for anyone to respond to this post.  I am just revealing myself and thoughts to the NSA.  

[AlexGR]

P.S.S. I hope enough people own gold in some sort of standardized form that we can do decentralized exchange with physical meetups to trade between crypto-currency and gold. I wish the community could decide on some standard form of gold that is easy to trade without assay. And some easy test for tungsten fakes. Gold is a very compact, durable, autonomous way to physically store value without external risk. Crypto-currency has external risk because it depends on a global ledger, potentially technology with lurking bugs, and on internet communication.

Gold bullion coins should be adequate. There are some plastic devices that check diameter, thickness, weight etc. Something like that: http://www.goldcoinbalance.com/

And even gold's global above ground supply is debased by increasing physical supply from mining a couple of percent per year.

In case price levels go to 7-10-15k USD / 1oz, we might see production (=more debasement) going up by 2-3-5x. It would be economically feasible to mine land that is now in the "non profitable" spectrum. There's too much land for additional supply when the prices rise.

[pungopete468]

The biggest problem with gold is the confiscation...

The powers that mismanaged our economy will expect us to work as slaves to repay this debt they've created. The taxes will be insane; as if they weren't already...

If you can't accumulate wealth anonymously then it will be taxed (legally yet unlawfully seized). No doubt the national welfare state will be expanded to place a crutch under the problem that they are perpetuating.

Gold isn't safe.

I live in the US and can't speak for other countries; the people living in the United States need a contingency plan. Should the government become oppressive, inadequate, or unnecessary, the people need to be willing and capable of abolishing and reforming. The value of life and liberty have been taken for granted and now the probability of losing both appears greater than ever before. IfWhen the financial system collapses, the government will collapse with it; like the grand finale of a great illusion it will suddenly be different than it was before. Once the curtain is pulled there will be no chance for non-violent change. *Boot-meet-face-forever*

We have a responsibility to protect those we love. The importance of what we do in the spirit of life, liberty, and love is always greater than the personal cost; especially when the cost of action might be your own life. If you have children you'll understand this...

There is no greater torture in the world than watching your children suffer. Unless the prevailing winds change; we will find ourselves in a world where each of us living today will suffer the despair of watching our loved ones transition from servants of this system to slaves of this system...

[alxs]

The powers that mismanaged our economy will expect us to work as slaves to repay this debt they've created. The taxes will be insane; as if they weren't already...We have a responsibility to protect those we love. The importance of what we do in the spirit of life, liberty, and love is always greater than the personal cost; especially when the cost of action might be your own life. If you have children you'll understand this...

There is no greater torture in the world than watching your children suffer. Unless the prevailing winds change; we will find ourselves in a world where each of us living today will suffer the despair of watching our loved ones transition from servants of this system to slaves of this system...

(edited)

Very well said. My thoughts exactly except we are already slaves of this system.  The question is how do we free ourselves and I have yet to see that answer.

Thinking more about your post, distinction between servants and slaves is accurate so i retract my own statement above.  Have to think about this some more.  Servant vs Slave...

[pungopete468]

We are living right on the borderline between servitude and slavery.

The difference is the opportunity for change. We have enough power left that we could make a non-violent change. The creation of an alternate financial instrument is exertion of that power to some extent...

The moment that our cooperation is no longer required is the moment it will no longer be voluntary.

Once the system collapses things will change; the line will be crossed and we will be segregated into the demographic of either slaves or criminals. The system has been primed already, most of us are criminalized by egregious and unenforced laws. The difference will not be as much in the law as it will be in the enforcement abuse of those laws...

[alxs]

We are living right on the borderline between servitude and slavery...

You are absolutely correct and accurate in every point stated.

My feeble mind is still trying to decide if we are servants or slaves today....So you are a few steps ahead of me...

[AnonyMint]

edit: I am haunted by the totalitarian nightmare that exists today and suicidal? (not best choice of word or meaning but gets point across)

I am sure you realize this, but that is why I urged upthread that we not go further into conspiracy theories, because some of have theorized that Alex Jones is actually a tool of the elite to cause us to be so consumed by noise and our emotions, that we aren't able to calm down and react rationally.

It is very unlikely that the formerly lurking now budding totalitarianism can win. The only question now is how far down the rat hole can we go before we the people win.

Stoic (typically a consistent quality of men, typically women only if their children are in immediate danger, exceptions of course), resolute, methodical, reasoned, and open sourced action will achieve the goal we seek.

[pungopete468]

edit: I am haunted by the totalitarian nightmare that exists today and suicidal? (not best choice of word or meaning but gets point across)

I am sure you realize this, but that is why I urged upthread that we not go further into conspiracy theories, because some of have theorized that Alex Jones is actually a tool of the elite to cause us to be so consumed by noise and our emotions, that we aren't able to calm down and react rationally.

It is very unlikely that the nascent totalitarianism can win. The only question now is how far down the rat hole can we go before we the people win.

Resolute, methodical, reasoned, and open sourced action will achieve the goal we seek.

I agree 100% that the people will eventually win. The knowledge is out; the old paradigm that the elites are wet-dreaming about won't self-sustain anymore. The question is how long will it take and how many casualties will the people suffer? There has never been a shortage of jack-boots willing to support tyranny/oppression...

I hope that as a society we can break away from the dependency before the system collapses on top of us. The risk of dependency is just too great under this form of financial system. I hope we can change it before it mutates...

I'm still following this thread even when I don't contribute. We have some very good content in here.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Some great points on using debasement to fund the network instead of tx fees. Always seemed strange to me to just assume that fees are the best way to go.