Strait of Hormuz now open?

[summonerrk]

The Strait of Hormurz has been closed for nine weeks straight, and oil supply has fallen by at least 10%, forcing global demand to decline by millions of barrels per day. This will be achieved either through high prices or through forced government consumption reductions. Countries have already released 400 million barrels from reserves onto the market, and a loss of 1 billion barrels is practically guaranteed. Reserves are depleting rapidly. Asian petrochemicals, diesel, and aviation have all suffered. India is experiencing certain problems. If the US market doesn't react to this yet, even growing, then the market will have to consider all these risks in the future. SNP500 will fall from its highs. I hope Bitcoin doesn't follow suit.

[Alpen]

I do not know whether it was an accident or a deliberate act by the US military when their Tomahawk missiles killed more than 120 schoolgirls and 26 teachers. And whatever the reason, it was still a war crime.

However, that pales in comparison to the destructive power and consequences of nuclear weapons.
Did you know that the two atomic bombs that the United States dropped on Japan in 1945 killed more than 200,000 people? Not to mention, its consequences continue to this day. So, the likelihood of the US using nuclear weapons against Iran is virtually zero.

From my own personal experience, I'll say that an instant death is far easier than the slow, inevitable decline from radiation sickness. Or a life spent in fear for your children — will they get cancer? What consequences will they face after being exposed to radiation? To be honest, I only understood this with age, because I was once a child myself and, like everyone, had a carefree and happy childhood.

So, to sum it all up: specific individuals vested with state power commit terrible acts, with enormous casualties and horrific consequences. And they aren't even condemned for it. Not in the past, not in the present, and not in the future.

And since they aren't condemned, it means that those who follow in their footsteps will also go on to commit terrible things. After all, they know that not only will they get away with it, but they'll be remembered by history.

How can this be avoided? By decentralizing power. Money is also power. That's why all governments are so afraid of the cryptocurrency market. It's naive to think cryptocurrencies will ever be allowed. Everything being done right now at the legislative level are steps of counteraction, not legalization.

[allthebitandbobs]

Believe me when I tell you that I closely follow the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, but I still struggle to understand what is going on and why there are those destuctive declaration when we apparently are heading in the right direction.
Also, I think nobody in the thread can anser to this simple question: is the Strait open or not? Is it s Shreodinger Strait: open and closed at the same time?

This question also confused me the most because I usually see so many clips saying that the Strait of Hormuz is open even the AI generated videos, but if it is open then why things are not going as we wanted. I don't know how true it is, they also say that they accept Bitcoin in exchange of dollar but if that is so I think Bitcoin will continue to have more value, and to me it's a welcoming development.

The closure of Strait of Hormuz is affecting the global economy because not only oil that is skyrocketing, other things follow has well, I just pray they should do something to end the conflict and embrace peace because peace is always the way out.

It is open to "some" that is the reason why most people are confused. First of all there are Iranian ships, who will pass through that without a problem from Iran obviously, and if USA doesn't stop them then they go without a problem.

Secondly there are Iranian allies, like Russia or so forth, which will not have problems with Iran and can pass if USA doesn't stop them. So those are the ones who will not be stopped by Iran. And USA doesn't stop any ship that is their own allies, but Iran stops all the ships that did not pay or allied with the USA (like NATO members). So whoever slips by that, is passing through.

In "theory" nobody should, because one side allows one part, but the other doesn't so nobody should, but sometimes they do.

[DrBeer]

The Strait of Hormurz has been closed for nine weeks straight, and oil supply has fallen by at least 10%, forcing global demand to decline by millions of barrels per day. This will be achieved either through high prices or through forced government consumption reductions. Countries have already released 400 million barrels from reserves onto the market, and a loss of 1 billion barrels is practically guaranteed. Reserves are depleting rapidly. Asian petrochemicals, diesel, and aviation have all suffered. India is experiencing certain problems. If the US market doesn't react to this yet, even growing, then the market will have to consider all these risks in the future. SNP500 will fall from its highs. I hope Bitcoin doesn't follow suit.

Just a few days ago, news broke that “the UAE is leaving OPEC and OPEC+ to increase oil production without being constrained by quotas.”
 This means that the country will produce and sell more oil to the market without being bound by OPEC/OPEC+ cartel agreements. This is positive news for the market. Yes, no one is saying that this will cause oil prices to plummet tomorrow, but it signals a shift in the market that will lead to a reduction in restrictions on production and sales to the market

[Cookdata]

This question also confused me the most because I usually see so many clips saying that the Strait of Hormuz is open even the AI generated videos, but if it is open then why things are not going as we wanted. I don't know how true it is, they also say that they accept Bitcoin in exchange of dollar but if that is so I think Bitcoin will continue to have more value, and to me it's a welcoming development.

The closure of Strait of Hormuz is affecting the global economy because not only oil that is skyrocketing, other things follow has well, I just pray they should do something to end the conflict and embrace peace because peace is always the way out.

Strait of Hormuz remains closed for now, as far as I can remembered, I have seen much AI videos of destroyed ship by Iran on X but good thing is I have not seen any reputable post them, even though it's obvious that the media outlet are been controlled, I don't think news of ship destroyed worth millions of dollars will be silent. Most of those covered AI generated videos are garbage. I feel for this generation because of misifinform they spread wrong information on right platform..

Just a few days ago, news broke that “the UAE is leaving OPEC and OPEC+ to increase oil production without being constrained by quotas.”
 This means that the country will produce and sell more oil to the market without being bound by OPEC/OPEC+ cartel agreements. This is positive news for the market. Yes, no one is saying that this will cause oil prices to plummet tomorrow, but it signals a shift in the market that will lead to a reduction in restrictions on production and sales to the market

I'm still trying to know why the sudden exit from UAE. Could this be that many of the countries that are under OPEC are been controlled by some unfriendly policy and why now? If they want to make more supplies now, what's the next plan for movements of oil through Strait of Hormuz that has remained closed. If they successfully pull this off without any consequences, other countries will likely want to leave which is why I don't think it's possible, they should watch their back and allies that are fueling this decision.

[Dewali]

Seeing what has happened in the past few concerning isreal and American aggression against Iran . Which has caused the global disruption of oil supply in the striat of Hormuz , hereby sending spike of oil price globally .
  Even after the war I don't think the strait of Hormuz will return back the way it once were due to infrastructural damage that was done to Iran including petrochemical plant,Tehran_ Karaj bridge and universities.
  With all this , I think Iran hold all the cards deciding what will the next movement of war and hw the end war is going to end. Because Donald trump himself has used all their options and none has resulted to thei r objectives of why they started the war.

[Issa56]

Seeing what has happened in the past few concerning isreal and American aggression against Iran . Which has caused the global disruption of oil supply in the striat of Hormuz , hereby sending spike of oil price globally .

The war is just affecting everyone right now, my country isn’t involved in the war, but price of oil has increased since the war started, and price of other food items have increased also. In my country immediately price of oil increases, other items prices increase also, because you need transportation to be able to transport your goods, and you going to be spending more on transportation, so you look for how you going to recover that.

The United state of America are also affected by the current war happening, I think maybe they didn’t expect Iran to block the strait of Hormuz before they started the war, and now they looking for possible ways to open the strait of Hormuz back but it’s impossible for them, Iran are the one controlling it.

  Even after the war I don't think the strait of Hormuz will return back the way it once were due to infrastructural damage that was done to Iran including petrochemical plant,Tehran_ Karaj bridge and universities.

I think the era of free passage at the strait of Hormuz has passed, even if the war ends, am sure Iran will be collecting some money from any ship thats going to pass, they will be using that to rebuild their country, United state and Israel have really destroyed a lot, and people have really died.

[Barcode_]

Before the war started, Donald Trump and his administration team were thinking that Iran would surrender fast once the USA and Israel armies began their strikes on Iran and taking out their top leaders one by one. But that did not happen and Iran is showing their strong resilience by resisting airstrikes from both the USA and Israel before the agreement of the ceasefire.

The Iran armies shutting down the Strait of Hormurz has since became a sticky issue for USA and all the countries around the world as tons of oils are passing through this crucial sea passage before the war began. I believe Iran will not open the Strait of Hormurz easily as this is the only advantage which gives them more negotiation power over USA on the table. But sadly, the people over the whole world are suffering economically due to the closure of Strait of Hormurz, and once oil prices shoots up to the sky, everything we used in our daily life will eventually see an increases in price.

[Oluwa-btc]

Before the war started, Donald Trump and his administration team were thinking that Iran would surrender fast once the USA and Israel armies began their strikes on Iran and taking out their top leaders one by one. But that did not happen and Iran is showing their strong resilience by resisting airstrikes from both the USA and Israel before the agreement of the ceasefire.

The Iran armies shutting down the Strait of Hormurz has since became a sticky issue for USA and all the countries around the world as tons of oils are passing through this crucial sea passage before the war began. I believe Iran will not open the Strait of Hormurz easily as this is the only advantage which gives them more negotiation power over USA on the table. But sadly, the people over the whole world are suffering economically due to the closure of Strait of Hormurz, and once oil prices shoots up to the sky, everything we used in our daily life will eventually see an increases in price.

As it should be! Underestimating your enemies in a war is a fatal error. And Donald Trump with big egos has refused to accept defeat and back off completely. Airstrikes have obviously damaged them real good likewise killing innocent children but they have not failed to retaliate bringing down all the US base in the middle east to rubles.

The US naval fleet and ships is responsible for the blockade now. Asides that, the Strait of Hormuz was never closed but it was to the US and their allies. We're having the impact already in our everyday life. That said, thanks to the war, they mad Iran stronger and obviously one of those pushing for a multi-polar world alongside Russia and China.

[Cheema02]

The Strait of Hormurz has been closed for nine weeks straight, and oil supply has fallen by at least 10%, forcing global demand to decline by millions of barrels per day. This will be achieved either through high prices or through forced government consumption reductions. Countries have already released 400 million barrels from reserves onto the market, and a loss of 1 billion barrels is practically guaranteed. Reserves are depleting rapidly. Asian petrochemicals, diesel, and aviation have all suffered. India is experiencing certain problems. If the US market doesn't react to this yet, even growing, then the market will have to consider all these risks in the future. SNP500 will fall from its highs. I hope Bitcoin doesn't follow suit.

Your point is very realistic about Strait of Hormuz and its directly pet pressure on energy markets and also on world economy. So when oil shortage occurs then its leads the inflation which then directly collapse the stock market. But sometimes markets not directly response to these situations because the traders expects the alternative routes for trading or some diplomatic solutions so a little delay can be seen in trade market. And governments use its reserves in this time and if conflicts continue for longer time then its also damage the liquidity assets like bitcoins but after some time Bitcoins recover easily. And also your point is valid and the conflicted countries trying to maintain the situation through general discussions on ceasefire talk and temporarily the market is going to stable.

[fruktik]

Trump declared he had officially ended the war in Iran so Congress wouldn't block his decision to continue it. What a lying bastard. He lies so brazenly and cynically to the entire world that just the sight of him makes me sick. What's happening to America? Where is it heading? Is there really no one who can stop this madness? It's time for the people to wake up and give this son of a bitch a kick in the ass. He deserves the electric chair, and all his accomplices must be punished to the utmost.

[viljy]

Trump declared he had officially ended the war in Iran so Congress wouldn't block his decision to continue it.

So that's why he made this announcement... Well, then if the blockade of the strait by the fleet actually continues, it will no longer be a military action? Or what? Or is it just to comply with legal formalities so that Congress does not consider the issue of military action at all?

[DrBeer]

Trump, having failed to achieve a military defeat of Iran,and this must be acknowledged, decided to take a different approach:
- The war is officially over; “everything is fine”; “those who were making a fuss about the war should go home.”
- The Strait of Hormuz is closed to Iranian ships and tankers carrying Iranian oil. You can just hop on a ship and watch the Iranian economy fizzle out.
Import ports are closed, oil isn’t being shipped, oil storage tanks are running dry... Just sit back and watch
 

[fuguebtc]

Trump declared he had officially ended the war in Iran so Congress wouldn't block his decision to continue it.

So that's why he made this announcement... Well, then if the blockade of the strait by the fleet actually continues, it will no longer be a military action? Or what? Or is it just to comply with legal formalities so that Congress does not consider the issue of military action at all?

Blocking a strait with naval forces is considered a military action. However, from what I have learned, the Trump administration fully justified these action as a defensive operation or freedom of navigation, not war. Furthermore, Congress is controlled by the Republican Party, and if this action causes controversy and division. Trump will still have the advantage.

So I guess the blockade of the strait will continue.

[Ayers]

Trump, having failed to achieve a military defeat of Iran,and this must be acknowledged, decided to take a different approach:
- The war is officially over; “everything is fine”; “those who were making a fuss about the war should go home.”
- The Strait of Hormuz is closed to Iranian ships and tankers carrying Iranian oil. You can just hop on a ship and watch the Iranian economy fizzle out.
Import ports are closed, oil isn’t being shipped, oil storage tanks are running dry... Just sit back and watch
 

Before Trump decided to launch a preemptive strike against Iran and US supporters also believed that. They believed that Iran would surrender immediately because the US had overwhelming military superiority. But the result is that 60 day have passed, and the US is still unable to subdue Iran

Similarly, they are shifting to an economic lockdown strategy because Trump 60 day commander-in-chief authority has ended under the constitution. This time they are also boasting that Iran would soon surrender and cave. But let's wait and see what happen instead of just dreaming.

[RockBell]

Before Trump decided to launch a preemptive strike against Iran and US supporters also believed that. They believed that Iran would surrender immediately because the US had overwhelming military superiority. But the result is that 60 day have passed, and the US is still unable to subdue Iran

The us made a mistake by trying to make Iran surrender by force now the peace of it they would have just looked for alternative way to solve all this problems, and they don't have a choice now that to embrace peace also that things can even go back normal so that the prices of fuel and other commodities can also drop and its going to be very defeat to subdue Iran just like it will cost them more to be able to do that even with all the military superiority.

Similarly, they are shifting to an economic lockdown strategy because Trump 60 day commander-in-chief authority has ended under the constitution. This time they are also boasting that Iran would soon surrender and cave. But let's wait and see what happen instead of just dreaming.

And Iran stood there ground and now the whole world is suffering for what would have been peaceful resolved and the 60 have reached and no positive even after so many threats and nothing is even getting better because the important thing is for the price of fuel to come down.

[Humman001]

Unable to demonstrate direct military success against Iran, Trump seems to have turned to a different strategy this time.

His message seems to be: the war is over, the situation is under control, and it is now time for those who have been expressing concern or spreading tension about the war to go home.

But in reality, a new avenue for exerting pressure has opened up. If the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to Iranian ships and tankers carrying Iranian oil, Iran's economy could come under great pressure. Because if imports and exports are disrupted, oil sales stop, and oil reserves decrease, the country's economic strangulation begins.

In other words, even though the gun war is over, the economic war continues. Now the strategy is to gradually weaken Iran's economy without directly striking.

[summonerrk]

Trump announced that, starting Monday, the United States will begin directing some neutral vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. As Trump wrote, the movement of the ships is intended solely to free people, companies, and countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong and are victims of circumstance. If this humanitarian process is somehow impeded, Iran will have to fight this interference with force. Does this seem like a provocation? Well, most likely, yes, because that's populism. But it's unclear yet, because Trump didn't specify what steps the United States will take to help the ships exit the Strait. It's surprising that Bitcoin is rising amid such mildly positive news.

[bubilas]

That's right, and this doesn't look like a path to a peaceful resolution at all. US Central Command announced on Sunday that it would provide military support to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including the use of submarines, aircraft, and drones. Interestingly, Iranian media, citing sources, are reporting possible preparations for a forcible lifting of the US naval blockade. Even before this, Kseer demanded that coastal vessels leave their anchorages and head toward Dubai, or face consequences. So far, markets are reacting very favorably to any positives and trying to overlook the negatives.

[NeuroticFish]

But it's unclear yet, because Trump didn't specify what steps the United States will take to help the ships exit the Strait. It's surprising that Bitcoin is rising amid such mildly positive news.

I don't consider them even "mildly positive", and imho the price change is unrelated to these declarations... although I cannot tie it to any visible event.
I don't know what I'm missing... maybe some whale is buying again? MSTR?