Oil will be high for a while

[letteredhub]

The reasoning I heard for higher oil medium to long term is that current pricing is based off military escorts.

There is no military escorts to cost anything. The reason for the high price is the shortage, that's all. We are heading toward 3 billion barrels shortage now. And you know supply and demand and all that...

I wonder how long enough the recent artificial cheap price is gonna last while the war hasn't ended and supply shortages remain constant while demands continues to increase. The only solution to the oil price spike is stopping of all conflicts in the Middle East which allows for free and safe transport of oil across all seas routes to Africa l, Asia, Europe and other parts of the world.

This has to also include the Russia and Ukraine war as well, since Russia is also a big exporter of oil to Europe and other parts of the world.

Every other avenue that is employed would continue to see oil price skyrocketing.

Iran is not beyond using the democracy of other countries as a weakness to leverage in their tactics ,it'd be too much of a giveaway in their eyes to let that opportunity pass without special effort.

Iran does not care one bit about the Neo Dictatorship in the USA since it really doesn't make an iota of difference which one of the Epstein Class oligarchs win over which other ones of the Epstein Class oligarchs since they are all slaves of the Zionists and get their orders from them

Democrats or Republicans they're obviously of similar class-control and it shouldn't raise hope of anything becoming different from what is going on should another wing take over power.

[DrBeer]

....
The reason why oil has been rising are these 4:
(1) The US Strategic Petroleum Reserves is falling lower and lower which makes dumping it on the market to artificially keep the price low so much harder and its effect smaller.
....

 

No matter how much U.S. oil reserves may decline, the U.S. continues to PRODUCE and EXPORT oil to the global market. Yes, right now, while prices are high, it's more profitable to export than to sell cheaply on the domestic market.
It's a different story in Iran - things are going just great with oil there
Especially against the backdrop of Ksir's mendacious propaganda about his alleged control over the Strait of Hormuz and the situation as a whole

Export Collapse: Physical oil shipment volumes have plummeted by 70-80%. Before the conflict began, Iran exported about 1.8-2 million barrels per day (mainly to China). By the fall of 2026, shipments had fallen to 220,000-560,000 barrels per day, and according to estimates by Kpler analysts as of late October, the reserves previously stockpiled on tankers have been depleted, and new shipments to China have virtually ceased.
Naval blockade: The main reason was strict monitoring by the U.S. Navy. The Iranian terminal on Kharq Island, through which more than 90% of all exports passed, was blocked.
Search for Alternatives: Tehran is attempting to use northern logistics routes (via the Caspian Sea with Russia's support), but their capacity is extremely limited and cannot replace full-scale maritime exports by tankers.
Economic consequences: Unable to sell its oil, Iran's onshore storage facilities are overflowing, forcing the country to shut down wells and sharply reduce production. Iran's GDP fell by more than 10% in the first quarter of 2026, inflation exceeded 70%, and the national currency (the rial) depreciated to historic lows.

P.S. So, has the entire U.S. Navy been sunk yet?

[pooya87]

If Donald Trump still insist to carry on with the Iran war after the midterm elections in America, I believe oil prices will even go higher than this price.

It is not a matter of if unfortunately; it's only a matter of when. The colonizers need Iran's resources desperately (among other reasons I've explained many times). As I said months ago, the moment the weather situation improves and they "re-arm", they'll retry their luck (remember in summer the temperate in Arab countries where they have to put their military assets is extremely high and there are sand storms that destroy aircrafts specially now that majority of hangers are destroyed).

The steps leading to that renewed aggression are being taken too. Here are some evidence:

• US regime's proxies (takfiri terrorist groups which are an important branch of US Army) have regrouped on both sides of Iran (East: inside mountains in separatist occupied northern Iraq; West: in mountains in western Pakistan) and other places like north of Aras river.
• Iran has already bombed multiple secret US sponsored terrorist camps in West Asia and neutralized some of US Army's capabilities over the past month or so
• The Axis is currently carrying out airstrikes in Iraq (remember back in March, the most damage dealt to the Axis in Iraq, Syria and Jordan was actually dealt by Iraqis. They shot down so many of US airforce including fuel tankers that crippled the regime's air capabilities). The Axis thinks they can eliminate that before they attack Iran.
• Iran's allies in Iraq and lets just say in a lot of other places have been armed to the teeth with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones and air-defense to deal devastating damage to the occupiers of their respective lands in the next round
• Iran also just released a gigantic list of American assets (military, economical, infrastructure, political, AI farms, cloud servers, internet cables, etc.) for obliteration under the name "Zero Hour Targets".
• On the European front the Axis is trying so hard to temporarily freeze that front so that they can shift their focus elsewhere.
• On Yemeni front they are also trying to temporality freeze that front to keep the Strait of Bab al-Mandab open.

If Iran was conducted the same way we'll be discussing this still in a few years still with gigantic accumulated losses on both sides, nobody winning.

The two fronts are very different though.

• Against Russia, the Axis succeeded in establishing a proxy through which they continue to fight Russia without needing to directly intervene themselves (deploying their own forces at large scale). So Russia continues bombing that proxy, while the proxy hits Russia back. As the members of US regime have said many times: "US will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian" (paraphrasing).
• Against Iran, the Axis tried to establish a strong proxy (Arabic NATO, Turkic NATO, Takfiri terrorists, and of course the Zionist regime) but over the past decades, Iran neutralized all of them (World War 4) and they are either too weak or unwilling to be a proxy. So the Axis had to fight Iran directly and pay the price directly (ie. It was US military bases and US economic assets that were bombed in retaliation no its proxies and it was US regime's forces that went back in body bags).

This is why the first time they tried it, the "fire exchange" lasted only 12 days and second time only 40 days and third time (Hormuz Operations) only 17 days. This next time may be so much bloodier (more elementary schools and hospitals bombed by the American terrorists) but it may not last longer than 2 weeks.

I wonder how long enough the recent artificial cheap price is gonna last

Either price would shoot up to the moon or the world sinks into a deep recession worse than The Depression and with demand evaporating the price comes down (we saw a preview during COVID recession when oil price became negative)!