Oil will be high for a while

[LanternSapphire]

markets move on expectations, but economies move on reality war disrupts logistics, contracts, and production. fixing all that takes time, not just a peace announcement. oil going up fast is normal, coming back down is slow.

[DrBeer]

Increased fuel price is least problem for vehicle owners. Switching to EV wont give a significant help, because the economy that is made from switching from paying for fuel to paying for electricity will be nullified by increased prices on products and services. Logistic companies and manufacturing suffer most increased fuel price. For example you saved couple hundreds EUR on fuel, but will pay about +30-50% more for everything you buy in stores. For example I was spending ~150 EUR monthly on fuel, but due to new prices I am spending +200 EUR. Previous month 1l of milk cost 0.99 EUR, today it is 1.49 EUR already. Additionally cost of EV > cost of petrol/diesel car. It will take years before your expenses on fuel-electricity balance.

Of course, the transition to electric vehicles—especially for logistics companies—is not a quick process. But those companies that think long-term, and seeing the recurring problems with oil, which has become hostage to geopolitical issues, will shift toward electric vehicles. Waiting for the next crisis and then losing business is not the best strategy.
And yes, unfortunately, logistics costs—for example, in the cost of food—are significant, which means that rising gasoline prices will trigger a chain reaction: rising oil prices → rising gasoline/diesel prices → rising service prices → rising food and other prices → reduced consumption of these goods → reduced and stagnant production of these goods → lower incomes and job losses → falling purchasing power → ....

I was only trying to say, that switching from car that runs on a fuel to EV, because oil prices when up today might not be the best way to save money on fuel. Switch to EV will pay back only in years, during which nobody can predict what would be prices on electricity. No one can guarantee, that next +5 years cost of electricity is going to stay on same level. Increasing oil prices will reduce fuel car cost, which means that gap between current petrol/diesel car vs EV is only going to be bigger. Also I dont think that such radical decisions are correct every time any crisis or price increase hits.

Electricity is becoming increasingly affordable because its generation sources are diversified: nuclear power (with fusion likely on the horizon), solar, wind, geothermal, tidal power plants, and so on.
Yes, there is a certain dependence on metals, for example, but there is no monopoly here (although China is trying to present this as a reality), there are alternative sources, and alternative technologies are being developed.
One thing is certain—there will be no SUPER-FAST global transition; it will take years.

[Youngrebel]

You are right Furball808. The duration of the war is uncertain and its effects will not end in the short term. Disruptions in energy supply, disruptions in supply chains and financial pressures are weakening companies financial resilience. Small and medium sized manufacturers with high bankruptcy risks and their supplier networks could delay the economic recovery. My think is that oil prices are likely to remain high during periods of ongoing war or continued uncertainty and even if demand recovers, it could take months or even years for supply capacity to return to normal. During this period, it will be crucial for companies to focus on restructuring, cost optimization and risk management. While governments will need to support strategic stockpiling and alternative energy investments...

I agree that smaller manufacturers are especially vulnerable and they usually don’t have the financial cushion to absorb long periods of high costs or supply disruptions, so once their supplier networks start breaking down, it creates a ripple effect that slows recovery across entire industries also your point about oil prices is also spot on. As long as there’s uncertainty or instability, prices tend to stay elevated because markets react not just to actual shortages, but to fear of potential ones. And even when things start to stabilize, rebuilding supply capacity is not instant and it takes time, investment, and confidence in the market and docusing on restructuring and cost control is probably the smartest move for companies right now. Those that can adapt quickly and whether by diversifying suppliers, improving efficiency, or managing risk better and are the ones most likely to survive this period.

[Out of mind]

No one knows for how long this war can go on. It can be weeks or months. But a lot of people seem to think that once the war ends, everything will go back to normal. That is not the case. Oil prices are going up now and for every day that companies struggle to operate, the closer they are to bankruptcy. Maybe the big companies would be fine but even them are struggling. To expect that once the war ends, everything will go back to how it was before would be foolish. It will take a while for everything to go down low, if things were to bounce back to what we used to consider normal.

The war that has started between Iran and the United States will not end so easily, but as we go on, tensions are increasing. The oil situation in the world market has become very serious, especially its price is increasing and its demand is increasing, which is changing everything. Oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz are decreasing, which is affecting the world market. If this continues for a long time, different countries will have to face bigger problems. However, once the war stops, the situation will not calm down so quickly, it will take more time because of the syndicates of different countries, and prices will remain higher. It is a long time before the situation returns to the way it was before, but we all want this war to stop and peace to return to the world, every country is currently likely to fall into an oil crisis if the war does not stop.

[Oluwa-btc]

Among the peace proposal Iran has put forward, the one I like and support the most is the demand that the US close all military bases and withdraw all troops from West Asia. This alone would be enough to bring peace to the Middle East for a long time. However, the US would certainly not agree to this. Because if they agreed, it would mean they would completely lose their interests in the region, and their Petrodola empire would collapse

Both sides are merely making demand that benefit themselves, rather than genuinely proposing concessions or working towards peace. The war is probably far from over.

Iran is not doing that. They're not just making demands which benefits them alone, they are making decisions which benefits Palestine, Yemen, Qater, Lebanon and also Libya. In general, this demands are not just for them but for the region and those who have been heavily affected. I do think it is wise they leave since they can not bring peace in the region but chaos, looting and war and nothing but carrying out demands on behalf of Israel.  Yeah, they also negotiated for a ceasefire but Iran said no, they do not want Israel to stock up themselves.

[fuguebtc]

Iran is not doing that. They're not just making demands which benefits them alone, they are making decisions which benefits Palestine, Yemen, Qater, Lebanon and also Libya. In general, this demands are not just for them but for the region and those who have been heavily affected. I do think it is wise they leave since they can not bring peace in the region but chaos, looting and war and nothing but carrying out demands on behalf of Israel.  Yeah, they also negotiated for a ceasefire but Iran said no, they do not want Israel to stock up themselves.

I once read somewhere that in its more than 250 year of existence, the United States has spent over 230 year waging war. And over 80% of the wars fought globally after world war II involved the US, either directly or indirectly. Therefore, I also believe that the Iranians are considering the common good of the entire region when making that request

I also believe that if the United States withdrew all its troops from the Persian Gulf region, peace would come to that area instead of decades of war


The United States is not the world's policeman or peacekeeper, but the perpetrator of war crime.

[DrBeer]

There is a solution to the problem, and it is already being implemented!
The Gulf states that have suffered from Iran’s terrorist attacks Iran having waged war against them (Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar), hold more than half of the world’s oil reserves and are developing major oil fields such as Gavar. Given the high geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, these states are actively building onshore pipelines (channels) to export raw materials directly to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the vulnerable strait.
Key aspects of the region’s oil infrastructure:
Giant fields: Most production is concentrated in coastal areas and on the continental shelf. Saudi Arabia (Gawar, Abqaiq) and Iran (Ahvaz, South Pars) are the region’s leaders.
The Strait of Hormuz issue: The lion’s share of maritime exports passes through this narrow strait. Due to the risk of its closure in the event of attacks or military conflicts (as in 2026), countries are seeking alternatives.
Onshore pipelines (oil pipelines): This is a key strategic solution for ensuring supply stability.
Petroline oil pipeline (Saudi Arabia): Crosses the country from east to west to the Red Sea.
Abu Dhabi Oil Pipeline (UAE): Allows oil to be exported from the UAE directly to Fujairah (Indian Ocean), bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Upcoming Projects: New pipelines through Saudi Arabia and Oman are being discussed to reduce dependence on sea routes.

[Alpen]

In the market, there’s really no such thing as an 'objectively high' or 'low' price. Oil could easily pull another 100% gain from current levels, so why not invest?

Oil prices could continue to rise even higher and double as you predict, but keep in mind that this is just a prediction and nothing is certain.

Once again: Is it wise to invest in asset that have already increased significantly and ignore those that haven't yet?

I will focus on taking profit and limiting further accumulation of assets such as gold or oil. Instead, Bitcoin has fallen significantly and is now a more suitable option.

Are you seriously making that argument on Bitcointalk? Think about how much Bitcoin has grown over the last 15 years—we’re talking tens of thousands of percent. If 'buying an asset that has already increased' was a dealbreaker, none of the long-term holders or the massive institutions that recently joined us would have ever touched BTC. Massive historical growth didn't stop them, so why should it stop an oil investor now?

[Fredomago]

Among the peace proposal Iran has put forward, the one I like and support the most is the demand that the US close all military bases and withdraw all troops from West Asia. This alone would be enough to bring peace to the Middle East for a long time. However, the US would certainly not agree to this. Because if they agreed, it would mean they would completely lose their interests in the region, and their Petrodola empire would collapse

Both sides are merely making demand that benefit themselves, rather than genuinely proposing concessions or working towards peace. The war is probably far from over.

Iran is not doing that. They're not just making demands which benefits them alone, they are making decisions which benefits Palestine, Yemen, Qater, Lebanon and also Libya. In general, this demands are not just for them but for the region and those who have been heavily affected. I do think it is wise they leave since they can not bring peace in the region but chaos, looting and war and nothing but carrying out demands on behalf of Israel.  Yeah, they also negotiated for a ceasefire but Iran said no, they do not want Israel to stock up themselves.

That's the point and it would be tough for US to agree to that demand and we will continue to expereinced oil price hike as the conflict unable to settle with negotiations, Iran made their statement and US have their own stand point, either someone from a higher grounds from both nations will be use as mediator and bring something in the table that both parties will agree, then we may find solution but other than that, price will continue to rise up so with the ongoing conflict and exchange war practices from both ends.

[free-bit.co.in]

There is a solution to the problem, and it is already being implemented!
The Gulf states that have suffered from Iran’s terrorist attacks Iran having waged war against them (Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar), hold more than half of the world’s oil reserves and are developing major oil fields such as Gavar. Given the high geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, these states are actively building onshore pipelines (channels) to export raw materials directly to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the vulnerable strait.
Key aspects of the region’s oil infrastructure:
Giant fields: Most production is concentrated in coastal areas and on the continental shelf. Saudi Arabia (Gawar, Abqaiq) and Iran (Ahvaz, South Pars) are the region’s leaders.
The Strait of Hormuz issue: The lion’s share of maritime exports passes through this narrow strait. Due to the risk of its closure in the event of attacks or military conflicts (as in 2026), countries are seeking alternatives.
Onshore pipelines (oil pipelines): This is a key strategic solution for ensuring supply stability.
Petroline oil pipeline (Saudi Arabia): Crosses the country from east to west to the Red Sea.
Abu Dhabi Oil Pipeline (UAE): Allows oil to be exported from the UAE directly to Fujairah (Indian Ocean), bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Upcoming Projects: New pipelines through Saudi Arabia and Oman are being discussed to reduce dependence on sea routes.

Is it really necessary to make things so complicated? Meanwhile, we have a simpler and more effective solution: end this meaningless war by having the US withdraw its troops and stop invading Iran. In that way, not only will thing return to normal, but the number of innocent people killed in this war will also be significantly reduced.

By the way, is it fair to call a country that is being attacked and invaded as a terrorist state?

[Danica22]

Among the peace proposal Iran has put forward, the one I like and support the most is the demand that the US close all military bases and withdraw all troops from West Asia. This alone would be enough to bring peace to the Middle East for a long time. However, the US would certainly not agree to this. Because if they agreed, it would mean they would completely lose their interests in the region, and their Petrodola empire would collapse

Both sides are merely making demand that benefit themselves, rather than genuinely proposing concessions or working towards peace. The war is probably far from over.

Iran is not doing that. They're not just making demands which benefits them alone, they are making decisions which benefits Palestine, Yemen, Qater, Lebanon and also Libya. In general, this demands are not just for them but for the region and those who have been heavily affected. I do think it is wise they leave since they can not bring peace in the region but chaos, looting and war and nothing but carrying out demands on behalf of Israel.  Yeah, they also negotiated for a ceasefire but Iran said no, they do not want Israel to stock up themselves.

I agree with your view that, with that request, Iran is benefiting the entire Middle East region, not just itself. However, as I said, that will not happen, and the United States will never agree to that condition.

According to the latest rumor, it appears both sides have reached a 45 day ceasefire agreement. Although there is no official confirmation, it seems highly likely.

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

[Just Say]

No one knows for how long this war can go on. It can be weeks or months. But a lot of people seem to think that once the war ends, everything will go back to normal. That is not the case. Oil prices are going up now and for every day that companies struggle to operate, the closer they are to bankruptcy. Maybe the big companies would be fine but even them are struggling. To expect that once the war ends, everything will go back to how it was before would be foolish. It will take a while for everything to go down low, if things were to bounce back to what we used to consider normal.

The war that has started between Iran and the United States will not end so easily, but as we go on, tensions are increasing. The oil situation in the world market has become very serious, especially its price is increasing and its demand is increasing, which is changing everything. Oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz are decreasing, which is affecting the world market. If this continues for a long time, different countries will have to face bigger problems. However, once the war stops, the situation will not calm down so quickly, it will take more time because of the syndicates of different countries, and prices will remain higher. It is a long time before the situation returns to the way it was before, but we all want this war to stop and peace to return to the world, every country is currently likely to fall into an oil crisis if the war does not stop.

It is being speculated that the war that has started between Iran vs. the US and Israel will not end so easily, but rather tensions are increasing as time goes by. Apparently, both the price and demand for oil in the world market are increasing, but we are seeing that its supply is low, which makes it seem to me that the economies of many countries are dangerously vulnerable to this situation. However, at the moment, you should note that OPEC has agreed to increase its oil production quota by about 206000 barrels per day for the next month.

On  Sunday, OPEC+, consisting of some members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to a modest rise of 206,000 barrels per day for May. However, that decision will largely exist on paper as several of the group’s key producers are unable to raise output due to the Iran war.

[Berry2d]

I think, even if the war ends soon, it does not necessarily mean that oil prices will drop rapidly. The current disruptions and supply chain disruptions create delayed but lasting stress on company balance sheets. Small and medium sized suppliers facing increased bankruptcy risk prolong supply shocks in the market. Repairs and reinvestments in the energy infrastructure take time. Prices may remain high until stocks are replenished. Additionally, even major players will act more cautiously under financial pressure until investor confidence and financing conditions recover. Therefore, beyond short term speculative fluctuations, it may take months or even years for the market to normalize. Political uncertainties and geopolitical risks will also continue to exert upward pressure. Consequently, in my think, it would be wise to assume the high price scenario when doing strategic planning and to work on liquidity supply alternatives...

Good points you just identified on the possible price of crude now and after the war, since the existence of this ongoing war, but major, minor and even national distributors have been faced by serious lost and getting back on there fit will be very difficult for now.
Some distributors lost there facilities on the process making it difficult to get involved in major businesses which will then reduce competition in the distribution world,  although most distributions are done by government but same will still happen as it will be time consuming before the nonfunctional facilities gets back to operation.

[DrBeer]

There is a solution to the problem, and it is already being implemented!
The Gulf states that have suffered from Iran’s terrorist attacks Iran having waged war against them (Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar), hold more than half of the world’s oil reserves and are developing major oil fields such as Gavar. Given the high geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, these states are actively building onshore pipelines (channels) to export raw materials directly to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the vulnerable strait.
Key aspects of the region’s oil infrastructure:
Giant fields: Most production is concentrated in coastal areas and on the continental shelf. Saudi Arabia (Gawar, Abqaiq) and Iran (Ahvaz, South Pars) are the region’s leaders.
The Strait of Hormuz issue: The lion’s share of maritime exports passes through this narrow strait. Due to the risk of its closure in the event of attacks or military conflicts (as in 2026), countries are seeking alternatives.
Onshore pipelines (oil pipelines): This is a key strategic solution for ensuring supply stability.
Petroline oil pipeline (Saudi Arabia): Crosses the country from east to west to the Red Sea.
Abu Dhabi Oil Pipeline (UAE): Allows oil to be exported from the UAE directly to Fujairah (Indian Ocean), bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Upcoming Projects: New pipelines through Saudi Arabia and Oman are being discussed to reduce dependence on sea routes.

Is it really necessary to make things so complicated? Meanwhile, we have a simpler and more effective solution: end this meaningless war by having the US withdraw its troops and stop invading Iran. In that way, not only will thing return to normal, but the number of innocent people killed in this war will also be significantly reduced.

By the way, is it fair to call a country that is being attacked and invaded as a terrorist state?

Sorry for answering your question with a question, but your responses to my clarifications will help us speak the same language and discuss the same values!

Question: Do you consider Germany in 1945 to have been a victim of an attack by the aggressive anti-Hitler coalition?

Could World War II have been stopped simply by withdrawing the anti-Hitler coalition’s troops from the territory of Germany and its allies?

Your answers will help me respond to your questions in this post as accurately and honestly as possible!

[Unknown Op]

I think, even if the war ends soon, it does not necessarily mean that oil prices will drop rapidly. The current disruptions and supply chain disruptions create delayed but lasting stress on company balance sheets. Small and medium sized suppliers facing increased bankruptcy risk prolong supply shocks in the market. Repairs and reinvestments in the energy infrastructure take time. Prices may remain high until stocks are replenished. Additionally, even major players will act more cautiously under financial pressure until investor confidence and financing conditions recover. Therefore, beyond short term speculative fluctuations, it may take months or even years for the market to normalize. Political uncertainties and geopolitical risks will also continue to exert upward pressure. Consequently, in my think, it would be wise to assume the high price scenario when doing strategic planning and to work on liquidity supply alternatives...

Good points you just identified on the possible price of crude now and after the war, since the existence of this ongoing war, but major, minor and even national distributors have been faced by serious lost and getting back on there fit will be very difficult for now.
Some distributors lost there facilities on the process making it difficult to get involved in major businesses which will then reduce competition in the distribution world,  although most distributions are done by government but same will still happen as it will be time consuming before the nonfunctional facilities gets back to operation.

Now Israel is totally dominant on the whole World because they have money which is power and they are giving funds to the government of USA to run the country and that is reason Donald trump is supporting for the benefits of Israel and he want to destroy the country of Iran and he has no relation with the people of Iran because they are Muslims and he forgot the human rights as we heard the word of human rights in the western countries. Petrol prices are going high as they are need of every person and people are dependent partially or totally depending of their kind of business and job but they are facing difficulties because all paths were banned due to War and many countries stopped many big projects and they faced billions of dollars loss.

[X-ray]

Looking at the situation, the Hormoz strait is getting a bit more lax, not fully open yet like it used to be, but not as closed as it was a week or so before, we are getting some ships out here and there, most of them non-USA of course but still it's good that we are getting oil again back in to the world.

So many oil tanker still hesitant to pass the strait though, even with the agreement on the ceasefire the company just don't want to risk getting fired by missile and get their ship drowned.

It will be quite a long time before we gonna see the price of oil stabilizes again, we're nowhere near wrapping things up seeing the current state of the strait.

The truth is the ships that are getting the pass is nowhere enough to satisfy world's need of oil.

[Smack That Ace]

Looking at the situation, the Hormoz strait is getting a bit more lax, not fully open yet like it used to be, but not as closed as it was a week or so before, we are getting some ships out here and there, most of them non-USA of course but still it's good that we are getting oil again back in to the world.

So many oil tanker still hesitant to pass the strait though, even with the agreement on the ceasefire the company just don't want to risk getting fired by missile and get their ship drowned.

It will be quite a long time before we gonna see the price of oil stabilizes again, we're nowhere near wrapping things up seeing the current state of the strait.

The truth is the ships that are getting the pass is nowhere enough to satisfy world's need of oil.

News surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is chaotic, and it is difficult to know what is true.

From what I have read, the strait has been fully opened, but another obstacle has emerged, Iran is also having difficulty identifying the mines they once laid due to a lack of equipment. This made many oil tankers hesitant, even after the lockdown was lifted.

Furthermore, the lifting of the lockdown is only valid for two weeks, and if a peace agreement is not reached, the lockdown could be reimposed. Therefore, it is too early to expect oil prices to return to normal levels anytime soon.


https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/iran-mines-strait.html

[beerlover]

I once read somewhere that in its more than 250 year of existence, the United States has spent over 230 year waging war. And over 80% of the wars fought globally after world war II involved the US, either directly or indirectly. Therefore, I also believe that the Iranians are considering the common good of the entire region when making that request

I also believe that if the United States withdrew all its troops from the Persian Gulf region, peace would come to that area instead of decades of war


The United States is not the world's policeman or peacekeeper, but the perpetrator of war crime.

This is what Americans can never understand. They think that somehow they are responsible for it, and if they do not do this, then there will be worse things. Reality is that, they are growing up and realizing thanks to age of social media, because even republicans do not want a war with Iran these days, even people who love trump do not want a war like this with Iran.

But the reality is that, there are many who are convinced with Iran having a nuke weapon possibility and they had to fight otherwise Iran would finish building a nuke and would nuke USA , that is not how nukes exists, hell USA has so many of them, it's really just a deterrent at this point, nothing more. On top of that, if you ever want to do build a nuke, it wouldn't be building in a place where you can bomb it, hell imagine bombing a nuke plant, that alone would be chaos. So no, it's not about nukes, never was. That's just a lie told to sell a war.

[X-ray]

News surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is chaotic, and it is difficult to know what is true.

From what I have read, the strait has been fully opened, but another obstacle has emerged, Iran is also having difficulty identifying the mines they once laid due to a lack of equipment. This made many oil tankers hesitant, even after the lockdown was lifted.

Furthermore, the lifting of the lockdown is only valid for two weeks, and if a peace agreement is not reached, the lockdown could be reimposed. Therefore, it is too early to expect oil prices to return to normal levels anytime soon.


https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/iran-mines-strait.html

Yeah thats one another big problem, imagine a vessel carrying tens of millions of dollar worth of goods even hundreds of millions going under because of a mine.

No wonder those ships aren't trying to pass or anything just staying still for weeks.

Recently US-Iran negotiation seems to be a failure as well. Seems like the strait is about the be closed until unforeseeable future.

[Emitdama]

News surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is chaotic, and it is difficult to know what is true.

From what I have read, the strait has been fully opened, but another obstacle has emerged, Iran is also having difficulty identifying the mines they once laid due to a lack of equipment. This made many oil tankers hesitant, even after the lockdown was lifted.

Furthermore, the lifting of the lockdown is only valid for two weeks, and if a peace agreement is not reached, the lockdown could be reimposed. Therefore, it is too early to expect oil prices to return to normal levels anytime soon.


https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/iran-mines-strait.html

Yeah thats one another big problem, imagine a vessel carrying tens of millions of dollar worth of goods even hundreds of millions going under because of a mine.

No wonder those ships aren't trying to pass or anything just staying still for weeks.

Recently US-Iran negotiation seems to be a failure as well. Seems like the strait is about the be closed until unforeseeable future.

Even worse, this isn't some dry vessel neither, it's a vessel that has millions of cubic sized oil tanks, so if it hits any mine, and there is an explosion, we are talking about a huge crater size explosion here, there are some tankers that can carry as much as 2 million barrels of oil, imagine exploding that suddenly, that would be insane, you would be bale to see it from USA or something lol, okay obviously not that much but you get the point, it would be bad for the people even on the land, because an explosion at the sea at that level, would hurt people at the land as well, it would be insanely big.

I am hoping that it's just another like by USA about Iran, and not the reality, and nothing will happen to these ships.