Bitcoin’s Second Leg: War and Global Inflation

[Alpen]

Bitcoin's late‑February run coincided with the outbreak of fighting in Iran. But that rally from $65K to $70K was by no means just some random speculative pump. It coincided with coins being pulled hard off exchanges and, at the same time, a flood of money into BTC ETFs. Both metrics tell the same story: strong demand from hodlers and institutions during the conflict.



Now for the plot twist. The region where war broke out is the commodities heart of the global economy. Oil and gas prices have already shot through the roof. Judging by the US wholesale price indicator, inflation is already starting to heat up—and all the gold piled up by central banks will be sold off to prop up national economies.

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis. That gave crypto its first step up from the bottom. The war was predictable. But crypto still answers to market rules—and price factors everything in. Yesterday's Fed rate freeze rolled the price back to $70K. Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

[Yaunfitda]

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis. That gave crypto its first step up from the bottom. The war was predictable. But crypto still answers to market rules—and price factors everything in. Yesterday's Fed rate freeze rolled the price back to $70K. Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

But we don't know when will the conflict will end. So it's better to really not hear this noises from the outside. If we believed that Bitcoin is the best hedge against conflict, preservation at this trying times, then so be it. Just continue to accumulate and HODL for the longest time. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we should be looking at the bigger picture. Right now it's good to see $70k++, but still we don't know, as far as cycle goes, we should be in the bear market. But then again, we could be seeing super-cycle and we might see the price not going below $70k but instead, become bullish for all we know.

[Charles-Tim]

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis.

Because gold is falling this time, that does not mean it is not a store of value, but what that happened was that gold has increased so significantly and it is affected by some economic United States news that is not even related to the war.

Bitcoin rose but I do not think it is also because of the news but I like how bitcoin just fell and rose very well during the war. This has let people that are saying bitcoin price movement is correlating with stocks movement that they are wrong.

[Awaklara]

Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

So it can be said that this also becomes a sign that we will exit the bearish market at that moment? Unfortunately, we will not know how long the war will last. I believe Bitcoin will reach $75k again, and it might not even take long. But that might not mean we are moving into the next bullish market. The market might still be like this, rising and correcting in prices that don't differ much for a while. But if we really exit the bearish market sooner, maybe that would be better.

[aoluain]

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis. That gave crypto its first step up from the bottom. The war was predictable. But crypto still answers to market rules—and price factors everything in. Yesterday's Fed rate freeze rolled the price back to $70K. Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

I think there is more at play ATM and a lot at stake in the coming weeks and months. I am feeling
bearish tbh and the current price hike will be short lived.
I am basing this on the fact that literally everything is going to be affected by this war - which isnt
over yet and both sides now are targeting oil infrastructure.
From what just happened in the 2.5 weeks of the war its going to take monrhs to get back to normal
and thats if they just stopped now.

Everyone is going to be affected, there could be a global recession, some analysts have already
mentioned depression. It that happens there will be pressure on households to pay bills, pay loans
and fund the day to day costs of inflated goods.

Nah, I think there is a lot more to play out yet...

[el kaka22]

I would say not the only one. There are many industries that goes up during a war, gold did went up as well if you believe it or not, and there are companies that goes up during war, mainly defense related, but in the end many things that are related to it also goes up as well. Sure you may not see the connection right away, but even chip manufacturers like NVidia make money during this time because war uses a lot of resources, and you may not know all of them.

In the end, bitcoin is not the only thing that goes up during a crisis, there are others and we are going to see them be a lot better and we could make a lot more money as well. We just need to be careful on how to get better on the long run when we are investing.

[Moreno233]

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis.

This is completely wrong assertion, Bitcoin rose and so does many other assets including crude oil and natural gas. There are many factors that makes an asset to rise during war and uncertainties. I remember when wheat rose significantly when the war in Ukraine broke out, this was in response to demand and supply as Russia and Ukraine contribute a significant percentage of world's supply of wheat. Now we have oil and gas rising too because of the war and what is happening to gold is normal retracement since it has been rising massively in recent past so it is normal for it to experience some corrections.

[EluguHcman]

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis. That gave crypto its first step up from the bottom. The war was predictable. But crypto still answers to market rules—and price factors everything in. Yesterday's Fed rate freeze rolled the price back to $70K. Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

But we don't know when will the conflict will end. So it's better to really not hear this noises from the outside. If we believed that Bitcoin is the best hedge against conflict, preservation at this trying times, then so be it. Just continue to accumulate and HODL for the longest time. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we should be looking at the bigger picture. Right now it's good to see $70k++, but still we don't know, as far as cycle goes, we should be in the bear market. But then again, we could be seeing super-cycle and we might see the price not going below $70k but instead, become bullish for all we know.

You have made your point clear that the war analytical outcome with this influence of global revolutionary economy threats should not be a reason to why we should only invest on Bitcoin at this terrifying time was going to spike to market manipulation whether it was going to trigger Bitcoin price increase in value or not.

To be on the better stance in this situation, you can consider converting your physical values to digital value for security purpose and as inflation also sets its place, be it known that it is important to store your funds in a safe haven assets such as Bitcoin while you don't hope to sell or make profits at the end of the war. .

Perhaps you don't know when the war will end so, you just have to focus on accumulating values of Bitcoin while holding without panics but hold as a long term store of values.

[Odusko]

Sometimes even when bitcoin react so much to an event, we can't initiaterely claim that bitcoin will continue or even keep reacting to such news most especially in situations like this current crisis in the middle East, we can't accurately tell how bitcoin is going to react to the happenings and news of the war, bitcoin is a volatile asset and most of the times bitcoin doesn't follow same pattern., the Iran and Israel war could push the price of bitcoin to $100k or even above.

[JeffBrad12]

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis. That gave crypto its first step up from the bottom. The war was predictable. But crypto still answers to market rules—and price factors everything in. Yesterday's Fed rate freeze rolled the price back to $70K. Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

I'm on the same book and I agree, it could help to push bitcoin at the level of $75k. Last time it tried, it couldn't break resistance but the chart pretty obviously showing another attempt of retesting the resistance.
We've been in the bearish market for so long, I think its time for bitcoin to do another leg up and currently it's the least expected time for bitcoin to go up in the perspective of the ordinary retailers.

[Alpen]

But we don't know when will the conflict will end. So it's better to really not hear this noises from the outside. If we believed that Bitcoin is the best hedge against conflict, preservation at this trying times, then so be it. Just continue to accumulate and HODL for the longest time. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we should be looking at the bigger picture. Right now it's good to see $70k++, but still we don't know, as far as cycle goes, we should be in the bear market. But then again, we could be seeing super-cycle and we might see the price not going below $70k but instead, become bullish for all we know.

Many analysts are already saying that the bottom is in for this cycle. Either way, there's reason to believe it — we've already seen the longest Bitcoin drawdown since 2018 and the lowest CryptoFear index reading on record

[Alpen]

Because gold is falling this time, that does not mean it is not a store of value, but what that happened was that gold has increased so significantly and it is affected by some economic United States news that is not even related to the war.

Bitcoin rose but I do not think it is also because of the news but I like how bitcoin just fell and rose very well during the war. This has let people that are saying bitcoin price movement is correlating with stocks movement that they are wrong.

If Bitcoin holds its upward trend during a stock market decline, investments in BTC ETFs will grow exponentially!!!

[Free Market Capitalist]

I love how people take a very short period of time that works in their favor and start drawing conclusions that suit them based on that. We’re talking about Bitcoin having risen by, what, 5% since the conflict began? That falls within Bitcoin’s normal volatility over a three-week period.

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis.

Lol. Nice wishful thinking. It seems that, according to Alpen, oil prices have also fallen during this crisis. If you wanted to go overboard, you could have said that Bitcoin is the only asset that will keep rising from now on for the rest of eternity.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Because gold is falling this time, that does not mean it is not a store of value, but what that happened was that gold has increased so significantly and it is affected by some economic United States news that is not even related to the war.

Bitcoin rose but I do not think it is also because of the news but I like how bitcoin just fell and rose very well during the war. This has let people that are saying bitcoin price movement is correlating with stocks movement that they are wrong.

If Bitcoin holds its upward trend during a stock market decline, investments in BTC ETFs will grow exponentially!!!

I think it's obvious that BTC ETF's are now like a haven for investors. Imagine putting your money without you actually holding the keys to your coins. Now, that is the first for everyone as we preach that we should have total control of our private keys and this is what ETF has to offer that's why it grow so much.

However, that narrative might not sit well for traditional investors like the majority of us. Who still look at the price movement and what is the feeling of the current moment. So maybe this war might proved that Bitcoin is a good store of value, but there are still a lot of investors on how they view Bitcoin.

[YOSHIE]

Bitcoin’s Second Leg: War and Global Inflation

I don't care about the current war, what I see is that Bitcoin is currently still in the realm of promising speculation in the future, regardless of bombs everywhere, we have seen years of war in the Middle East, from century to century, but the economy and currently Bitcoin is still sought after by investors and is used as the best storage asset against inflation.

I'm sure there is no useless speculation in the current situation, it's just that sometimes many people associate Bitcoin with war, in fact Bitcoin is not only used in Iran, countries and people in other countries also care about Bitcoin, so there is no real phase for me thatmust be contested.

[rbynxx]

So, it turns out Bitcoin is becoming the only asset that can actually rise during a crisis. That gave crypto its first step up from the bottom. The war was predictable. But crypto still answers to market rules—and price factors everything in. Yesterday's Fed rate freeze rolled the price back to $70K. Believe me, the incoming inflation data will push BTC back to $75K—and that'll be the second leg up. The third leg will come once the war ends.

That's a hopeful take I guess.but I'd rather be mindful though. We've been down badly and we just got up a few percentage from that devasting dump and more like some dead cat bounce thing recently and it pull back a bit. Well, who don't love some leg up? I hope you're right though and how positive are your that this war wouldn't last that long? Will this war even take to 3 months? It's costly on both sides and hope they'll find some resolutions.