D-Day for Bitcoin

[Free Market Capitalist]

I don't think that there will be a ground assault on Iran, that could be the biggest mistakes of America and Trump if they do it.

I don't know for sure if it will happen or not, but what I do know is that Trump is really messing this up. Not only has his popularity taken a hit because of this war, but he's also hurting the economy, and those two things could cost him the midterm elections.

As for Bitcoin, given that we’ve missed the initial rally—which some were quick to tout as proof that Bitcoin is a safe haven during wars—I think that if the conflict worsens, the price will surely drop.

[Darker45]

I don't see the US forces occupying Iran. So far, it seems there's no build up for such purpose. If it happens, it would mean the war would drag on for months and months and other countries might also take part in the conflict. I don't believe the US would commit such careless mistake.

On the other hand, I also don't expect Bitcoin to fall below $60,000. Although that's just $6,000 away, I assume big money will take advantage of the situation even before the price hits that low. If it does, it will be quick. DCA style might not be the best strategy for such a fleeting situation.

[silpersurfer]

I don't see the US forces occupying Iran. So far, it seems there's no build up for such purpose. If it happens, it would mean the war would drag on for months and months and other countries might also take part in the conflict. I don't believe the US would commit such careless mistake.

On the other hand, I also don't expect Bitcoin to fall below $60,000. Although that's just $6,000 away, I assume big money will take advantage of the situation even before the price hits that low. If it does, it will be quick. DCA style might not be the best strategy for such a fleeting situation.

At present it is quite difficult for the US to do such a thing, it needs a very large preparation if you want to occupy Iran because Iran is very vigilant, unlike Venezuela, the presidency can be taken and the people are not angry, while if it is Iran, will the people and the government react the same? Of course there are no major consequences if you do that to Iran, failure can be a big threat if you do the operation again, and other countries must be involved, especially their allies.
Couldn't it drop below $60k if the conflict escalates? Closing the strait of hormuz for too long will create a much bigger chaos because many countries will be affected and they will be angry.

[buwaytress]

-snip-
$30k was not beyond imagination (25% of ATH? That's Bitcoin normal!).

Throw in this and possibly worse tailends after. Then 15% of ATH (18k) -- which is not unheard of for Bitcoin -- maybe? What's your thinking OP?

Historically, ATL drawdowns have decreased each cycle, coupled with greater liquidity since institutional investors and the ETF market joined the movement. If the decline were to reach or exceed -75% again, it would be a bear market anomaly for this cycle.
I personally limit the downside scenario for this cycle to $50k, as the lowest point reached by the lower wick in the previous consolidation history (monthly timeframe).

I do give cycles a lot of thought, and yes, the amplitudes are getting shorter/smaller with each cycle, but the last one did seem to take down quite a number of markers set down by previous ones, so I'm ready to look at more, including the dismantling of this ATL drawdowns -- like you said, a bear market anomaly, amongst several other anomalies already recorded by this latest (ATH prior to halving, for example).

That said, $50k appears the most technically likely... but break the $60k floor amidst mounting uncertainty and I'm just not sure anymore.

[Lucius]

I don't think that there will be a ground assault on Iran, that could be the biggest mistakes of America and Trump if they do it.

I don't know for sure if it will happen or not, but what I do know is that Trump is really messing this up. Not only has his popularity taken a hit because of this war, but he's also hurting the economy, and those two things could cost him the midterm elections.

I would say that he messed up a long time ago, but for that you would have to go back to the Cold War years when he used the same terms as he does today: "I will end the war in 24 hours," which of course turned out to be complete nonsense. Someone wrote that the Jews were waiting for a US president stupid enough to start this kind of war and they finally got him.

As for Bitcoin, given that we’ve missed the initial rally—which some were quick to tout as proof that Bitcoin is a safe haven during wars—I think that if the conflict worsens, the price will surely drop.

If it's any consolation to anyone, I think that even without the war, the price of BTC would be far from its last ATH, it's simply time for a correction, like every time it's happened in the past.

[allfriends88]

I don't think that there will be a ground assault on Iran, that could be the biggest mistakes of America and Trump if they do it.

Let's hope it doesn't happen, although some media outlets have reported that Trump is considering a ground invasion, I just hope he doesn't make that mistake. Iran, on the other hand, is well prepared if it happens. Only negotiations can truly halt this war, which seems unlikely.

As for the price, we are in the bearish cycle already, so it's just a matter of time that the price will go on a massive decline. Not sure what the price did have some uptick at the start of the war. But if you look at it, didn't sustain it's run and so we go down to $66k again.

It might be that this is not yet the lowest low in this cycle. So I do agree that anything below $60k could be a very good entry to start buying and accumulating again.

Yes, that's what we believe. Perhaps it's time for a bear market. Now, instead of panicking about the market situation and the war, it's better to capitalize on this momentum by accumulating as much as possible. And it's also time for beginners to do so.

[CryptoYar]

[...]

World is divided between the fight of military war and Middle East as well as hard time of Bitcoin to keep its value. Although U.S has huge force of up to 67,000 soldiers in its plan Epic Fury, it is known by experts that this is strong air and sea plan to protect Strait of Hormuz and not total land takeover of Iran.

These price drops can be so short that such old ways as DCA might be less helpful than limit orders to grab fast falls. I believe that at now, Bitcoin is acting as both safe spot and risky item, climbing when money systems are in their first steps of mess but then dropping as buyers need money to buy high oil prices. Though, it will stay above $60,000 unless there is total world money scare.

[UmerIdrees]

The war is pointless and nothing more than something to fuel the profits of the military-industrial complex. Aparently 17,000 troops are scheduled to ground over in Iran. Hopefully what I was reading was malarkey, because Iraq/Afghanistan lasted for wayyy too long just to replace the Taliban...with the Taliban. 

I'm speculating 50k at least. Everything's gunna be hurting until late this year IMO.

50K is going to come someday and it will not be 50K but it can go as low as 42K too as the bitcoin usually makes the bottom near the 300 EMA and thats on the cards. However, war isn't the reason that bitcoin has to hit this value. Even without the war, these values would have come if he kept the bitcoin bull and bear cycles in mind.

However, every time there is a catalyst for the bitcoin price going down, and this time it could be the geopolitical and war situations globally.

[Rgram]

The question is whether Bitcoin will go below 60,000 in the near future. And if the crisis continues, whether it will go below 40,000 or not. There are many bids, ranging from 50,000 to 60,000, but they can be easily removed.

Since when did the war become a market mover where it does seem that, there are no other events or activities that are a result to the dump and pump in Bitcoin price. We really do focus everything on the on going war in few nations and largely neglecting the few that aren’t in the fighting.
I know the effects of war isn’t restricted to countries at war but, Bitcoin haven’t being dependent on conflict for it’s conditioning and it still doesn’t. Either it pumps to $70k or dumps to $40k, it’s still not exclusive on war.

[CryptoYar]

[...]

Swings in prices of Bitcoin are mostly because of its natural market steps, but not by outside reasons, such as war, which is just spark to drop that was bound to happen anyway. I agree that, world news parts of news headlines are headlines, but real case is that, Bitcoin continues to act as risky item linked with show of our tech stocks, instead of it acting as safe spot or shield, as it does with gold.

I think reaching that of $42K-50K would not be disaster but huge chance for buyers, since it follows same tech shapes which have ruled Bitcoin over last 15 years. At last, being focused on long term averages and cash flow is far more important in trader than daily news story.

[Alpen]

The war is pointless and nothing more than something to fuel the profits of the military-industrial complex. Aparently 17,000 troops are scheduled to ground over in Iran. Hopefully what I was reading was malarkey, because Iraq/Afghanistan lasted for wayyy too long just to replace the Taliban...with the Taliban. 

I'm speculating 50k at least. Everything's gunna be hurting until late this year IMO.

If we follow the logic of technical analysis, the price target after breaking the neckline of a 'Head and Shoulders' pattern is equal to the distance from the head to the neckline. In this case, Bitcoin is looking at a drop to $56K—unless Pakistan manages to mediate between Iran and the US

[Alpen]

That's pretty scary for a pattern that is believed to bring a deeper drop, but the shape is similar to Head and Shoulder only the structure I think is less perfect to say that.
But this can be a concern for all that the probability will always be there to go down or up on the price of bitcoin, so don't focus too much on that because in the end we will pass this journey back as happened before, if you have the intention to accumulate then continue consistently and keep holding it because we will never know which way bitcoin will go, and also we will never know that what causes it to go down or go back up, whether it's Iran's war with the US or other things that can trigger an increase or decrease.

Accumulating Bitcoin during a crash is what we call 'catching a falling knife' in trading. You should only enter the market at key support levels—for example, at the BTC mining production cost level

[Alpen]

When you say below $60k, what kind of bottom are you looking at? Long before the war, I'd already been expecting sub-60. Even without all that fuss I thought, $30k was not beyond imagination (25% of ATH? That's Bitcoin normal!).

Throw in this and possibly worse tailends after. Then 15% of ATH (18k) -- which is not unheard of for Bitcoin -- maybe? What's your thinking OP?

I’ve actually posted about this before—identifying the Bitcoin bottom is more about math than guesswork. In every drawdown cycle, the crypto winter floor is determined by the BTC mining production cost. That’s why targets like $18K are simply out of the question in the current environment