Is the 2026 Supercycle still on the table?

[Yaunfitda]

Personally, I also tend to that interpretation: we're either in the bottoming phase or still in a bear market (but probably in the final stages before the capitulation). A "Supercycle" for me would have been a bottom above 80k, but the lines are blurry anyway. The current prices look good to buy, but there may be lower lows ahead for the patient, especially if the insecure geopolitical situation persists.

Right, if we are in the super cycle then we could have been bottom at $80k, but it didn't happen as we continue to go down hard to $63k-$65k and there's a possibility that this might not be the bottom after all. So yeah, everything is blurry right at this point, we don't know where the market is going, specially that we have a lot of noises that lingers in the background - the conflict in the Middle East and there seems to be not stopping anytime soon. So for me I will say that we should shade that 2026 is year wherein we will break barriers and saw a super cycle.

[khiholangkang]

I know you read about CZ's 2026 Supercycle prediction, but you should understand that it's just his prediction and you shouldn't take it seriously because it's simply unreasonable. Given the current situation, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin could soar so high in such a short time. Bitcoin is currently sideways, and although CZ predicts that ETF inflows and other such things could drive the price up drastically, realistically, that's simply not plausible. The market is predicted to be bearish, and we might see Bitcoin's price drop from its current level, and that could last for a while. However, if you're prepared, this shouldn't deter you because it's only temporary - Bitcoin will definitely rise again. Just hold on and focus on accumulating if you can.

Thats the point, the news and whatever CZ has saud it's just his mare predictions and chances are, it may it may not. Believing totally on what the news or some big shots says about Bitcoin track movement might be worrisome since it may not always work or align with there thoughts or predictions. Sometimes, we just have to listen, think, filter and maybe do the best we can as regards our purchase and holding.

The bottom is still the same, just buy if you can and HODL. Bitcoin remains Bitcoin, and sure, there is every potential of rising higher above it's previous ATH price. So, we can keep watching while accumulating the ones we can and HODL. Someone said earlier, 'pay attention to your financial ability', and that's it. We buy, we HODL, we watch out financial strength, so that we don't get choked up, so that we can be able to HODL for long.

All of that is just a prediction, whoever does it will never know whether it will happen or not even the owner of the largest exchange in the world, he speaks based on data that he believes in so he says that but it is not something that is certain because no one can predict the future.
Just like we speculate and we believe it might happen but in fact it doesn't happen it's just a part of the data that we have with some hope that can happen with it.

Don't doubt bitcoin, it will definitely print ATH again after the next Halving that's what bitcoin has to this day and why Bitcoin is always trusted by many investors, and HOLD is the key to what is the meaning of correct investment in bitcoin.

[STT]

The price is fine, the worries are fair but overdone as they are most times.   I'm fortunate right now, I'm on a machine with an old BTC chart and price action looks fine in the bigger picture.    

  People don't love charts as much as I do so I wont post it but I see a valid target as 90k.  This chart I have not updated since last year, yet long term that's only a few seconds ago.
   We fell seemingly a ton and people got scared, that's fairly normal & it happens every time for one reason or another but it doesn't negate the larger gain possible with Bitcoin that I believe will still occur.

[As-Soon-As]

I finally decided to buy the dip and made my first Bitcoin purchase, yesterday.
‎Despite the about the what is going at the Middle East
‎My question to the veterans here, Are we just seeing a standard midcycle correction, or do you think the 2026 Supercycle idea is dead? I’m planning to hodl for at least 3 years, but I’d love to know if I should keep some dry powder for a potential drop to $55k.

‎Glad to finally be part of the community.

The price of Bitcoin is quite under control, so now is the right time for you to invest in Bitcoin. If you have bought Bitcoin and are waiting for more dips, then it will be the best plan for you to follow the regular DCA method rather than buying dips. Because if you follow the regular DCA method, your Bitcoin purchase will be consistent, and if the Bitcoin price is dumping,
your DCA method will save you, and even if the Bitcoin price is pumping, you will save on Bitcoin purchase. So in both cases, you can invest in Bitcoin by following this DCA method and it will be much easier for you to hold it for a long time.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

There are always public figures and influencer types on social media that say we will be in a super cycle but in my 12 years in Bitcoin, it’s been BS every time.

CZ of Binance said it recently but again, it’s BS. He just wants to keep people buying on his exchange. Don’t believe everything you read. We will go to new ATHs again but this is not a super cycle. We are in a bear market.

[aoluain]

^ totally agree.

Until the halving changes ^{which wont happen} the 4 year cycle will continue along a
sort of defined pattern of bull to bear and back again as a consequence of - the halving.

The only caveat I would add is the consequences following the war on Iran which could have a
short term pull on the market into the bear cave and long term amplify the bull market and
I dont think these consequences have been realised yet.

[Crypto Library]

I finally decided to buy the dip and made my first Bitcoin purchase, yesterday.
‎Despite the about the what is going at the Middle East
‎My question to the veterans here, Are we just seeing a standard midcycle correction, or do you think the 2026 Supercycle idea is dead? I’m planning to hodl for at least 3 years, but I’d love to know if I should keep some dry powder for a potential drop to $55k.
‎Glad to finally be part of the community.

I still don't think anything has happened in the market that will break the Bitcoin super cycle pattern. Because just like Bitcoin created a new all-time high price in 2025, about a year after the halving,
I think there's still a huge amount of time left in 2026, only the first quarter is over, there are still three more quarters left. So I think where Bitcoin is currently, it's right where it's at. I think the price of Bitcoin is likely to drop to around 40k, not just 5k, I think, by the end of 2026 or 2027.

[d5000]

Until the halving changes ^{which wont happen} the 4 year cycle will continue along a
sort of defined pattern of bull to bear and back again as a consequence of - the halving.

I know this is a popular opinion and it seems that the last 12 years could "confirm" that pattern, but I disagree.

Miners are almost insignificant as Bitcoin sellers now. There are 144 blocks per day with 3.125 Bitcoins each (164k per year). The next halving, we will have 1.5625 (85k per year). More than 20 million Bitcoins have already been mined.

This means, the Bitcoin supply inflation will go from about 0.7% to about 0.35% per year. That meager 0.35% will be the only consequence of the next halving (and even during halving periods), The 2032 halving will reduce the supply inflation only by 0.17 percentage points, the next one by 0.08 and so on.

Things were different in 2012, when the halving, just after the first 10 million BTC had been mined, reduced the supply inflation from 26% to 13% per year. This had a notable effect on supply and thus the first having's effect as a "booster" of the 2013 bull markets was probably very important.

In 2016 I can also still accept that there was maybe an effect on the 2017 bull market, as back then the supply inflation decreased from about 8% per year to 4% per year, which also is still significant. I guess however the 2017 bull market had primarily other causes, mostly real adoption, the approval of the first Bitcoin derivatives, and also the appearance of Ethereum and the ICO craze which flooded the crypto market with non-techie retailers, affecting Bitcoin too.

But in 2020 the reduction on supply inflation was already very small: from about 3.5% to 1.75%, or some 1.75 percentage points.

[asriloni]

‎My question to the veterans here, Are we just seeing a standard midcycle correction, or do you think the 2026 Supercycle idea is dead? I’m planning to hodl for at least 3 years, but I’d love to know if I should keep some dry powder for a potential drop to $55k.

It's hard to call this as a correction. It's more like a bearish trend instead of correction caused all of crypto have been dropping so hard since its ATH last year. It seems we're gonna be side ways for sometimes, then continue with another dump that may occur.

Other than it i can't really say supercycle idea is dead, but it won't happen in short time. So many crypto projects get shutdown, war, inflation, and economic crisis are still sense reason why supercycle ain't gonna happen soon.

However, if you have a plan to hold your bitcoin for at least for three years. Then you can be careless with your bitcoin after you bought it. Just DCA bitcoin, send it to your wallet, the leave it for three years later.

[jaberwock]

Super cycle is not real and not going to happen. I have never heard of this after any bull season, we had many bull seasons before where we went high, and then we started to go low, and nobody said that we will have super cycle, and for soe reason this one people are saying this. It's not a real thing, it is not going to happen, we are not going to suddenly change the way we do things.

We should realize that it is not going to be good at all and we should all be considering how this could be difficult to go up even further. We are in the bear market right now and we are going to stay at the bear market for a while long and we should accept our situation and move on. If you insist on supercycle coming, you are going to lose more.

[STT]

Good positive day today, the way to judge this now is not by the success or up wave but by the strength of any future pullback on negative days especially in news and volume.  We have plenty of bad news and volume should result to test BTC, on the negatives we'll know better if the positives were temporary or accumulating a trend.

  Only the trend really matters for the larger numbers or supercycle, whatever nice words to label a possible rise.  Movement here matters more, BTC is leaving the orbit of the prices its kept since Early FEB .  I do think it can go all the way to 90k or so but not in any simple way I suppose, looking for the next pullback to prove support.

[SquallLeonhart]

Price may look green, and 70k could make you happy, but the reality is that we are not going to peak to a new ATH until next halving. That has been how it is for years and it will not change suddenly. I understand wanting more and more, but that's not what we are going to have bitcoin market right now.

We should be considering the fact that it is going to be something that will take a while before we could do anything about it. I understand that it is not the best case scenario for us to see it go down more, but no supercycle is coming to help us, and we have to face that it will go down, and we need to be ready for it so we can buy cheaper.

[Minor Miner]

Price may look green, and 70k could make you happy, but the reality is that we are not going to peak to a new ATH until next halving. That has been how it is for years and it will not change suddenly. I understand wanting more and more, but that's not what we are going to have bitcoin market right now.

We should be considering the fact that it is going to be something that will take a while before we could do anything about it. I understand that it is not the best case scenario for us to see it go down more, but no supercycle is coming to help us, and we have to face that it will go down, and we need to be ready for it so we can buy cheaper.

Have you forgotten that Bitcoin reached its ATH before the halving during this bull cycle? Anything can happen, and Bitcoin's price volatility is determined by money flow, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic factor. Halving is just a minor catalyst, not the deciding factor.

However, I agree that expecting Bitcoin to grow in the current environment is unrealistic and there is no such thing as a supercycle.

[philipma1957]

Price may look green, and 70k could make you happy, but the reality is that we are not going to peak to a new ATH until next halving. That has been how it is for years and it will not change suddenly. I understand wanting more and more, but that's not what we are going to have bitcoin market right now.

We should be considering the fact that it is going to be something that will take a while before we could do anything about it. I understand that it is not the best case scenario for us to see it go down more, but no supercycle is coming to help us, and we have to face that it will go down, and we need to be ready for it so we can buy cheaper.

wrong so wrong its sad.

last 1/2ing was april 2024

and we reach 70k before that.

so to say we cant reach 127k before april 2028 is because it never ever happened

since we already did it for the 2024 ½ ing.


my thoughts are we can do 127k or higher

1 in a month or less — holy bat fuck
2 some time in 2026—- super cycle
3 some time in 2027— super cycle
4 right before 2028 1/2ing no supercycle
5 right after 2028 ½ ing no supercycle
6 never ever oh well

but dont say we never can reach a new high before 2028 1/2ing