Can data models really beat sportsbook odds?

[Hispo]

If they could make money on their own, they would not need to advertise themselves and find clients. Don't you think?

There was a topic posted here before by one of the members, and I actually believed what he said.

The point of that post was that there really are people who sell subscriptions and give winning tips, but it’s not cheap at all. So what we’re seeing now, especially those selling in Telegram or random groups, are probably just scams. Most of them just show fake records to attract desperate sports bettors.

That’s why in this kind of space, if it’s cheap, you really have to doubt it. Same goes when choosing a tipster.

Ideally, when comes to choosing a tipster, I would only pay attention to those who have proven not to care about money anymore due to the high rate of success the have, so they give their tips for free, for whoever wanted to pick them up and make some money.
It does not make any sense to pay for tips, specially when it is so easily to scam people for alleged privileged information these days.

Also, I could even argue that relying one's choice upon one's money to others is kind of irresponsible and is not something a mature gambler would do, but that depends whom you ask, I think.

[Dave1]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I would still say that sportbooks odds will stay like that, not that it can be beaten, but we all know that major companies has also a lot of data models in calculating the odds and releasing it to casinos.

I'm not sure what you mean by under or overprice, those odds are calculated as I have said and those releases this odds have crunched the data that there is still no guarantee who will win. So it's really up to us, bettors, even if we have our own models to see what will be the best bet.

[TedMosby]

Your post reminds me of this post on X:
https://x.com/0x_Discover/status/2040724120472596617.

TLDR, he is predicting weather on the Polymarket prediction market. He uses data from aviation weather data, updated every 1–3 hours. He find mismatches between aviation weather data and data on Polymarket. Aviation data often updates hours before public forecasts.

[SamReomo]

Definitely, because it is their business that will be in jeopardy in case this can really give good results to bettors. I don't think they will just sit down and let the potential threat wiped out their vault. But for now, we don't know the capability of these models.

Such models might exist but I'm thinking why the ones who've created such models aren't using it for themselves? They could make literally in $Millions if they keep those models secret and to themselves and only place bets after a few days intervals to be on safe end. I guess they know that such models don't work well and that might be the reason why they might be selling subscriptions or something like that to loot money from the ones with cheating mindset.

[yahoo62278]

If you’ve been betting for a while and looking for ways to win, you’ve probably come across all these data models claiming they can find value and help bettors make profit because of how their system works.

What they usually mean by “finding value” is that the sportsbook line is either overpriced or underpriced. For example, maybe an injury happens and the sportsbook hasn’t fully adjusted yet, but the model spots it early and shows there’s still value in that line.

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

It's an illusion for the gullible. Some scammers are trying to find idiots who might believe them and take advantage and make a quick buck. All the info these people selling these models have is public and anyone can figure it out IMO. Sites aren't retarded either, they got all the data as well and TBH probably more.

[m4r1o]

Ideally, when comes to choosing a tipster, I would only pay attention to those who have proven not to care about money anymore due to the high rate of success the have, so they give their tips for free, for whoever wanted to pick them up and make some money.
It does not make any sense to pay for tips, specially when it is so easily to scam people for alleged privileged information these days.

Also, I could even argue that relying one's choice upon one's money to others is kind of irresponsible and is not something a mature gambler would do, but that depends whom you ask, I think.

I don't think it's right for someone to rely on a figure like that, there must be honesty in this field too otherwise it's a complete scam, i understand that people would do anything to win, even swap their mothers but it's not a wise thing to do, in fact i find it deplorable and senseless

[suzanne5223]

But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

Yes, data models can be helpful to bettors when it comes to making profitable sports betting decisions and i believe it can also help sometimes to beat the sportsbook odds but one things is certain no matter the concept or strategy used to beat a gambling platform it wont be profitable if use for the long term due to the constant change everything gambling platform model of operation.

[|MINER|]

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But that also makes me wonder, what if sportsbooks are already reacting too fast now, faster than most models can catch up? If that’s the case, does it mean these models don’t really give bettors a long term edge anymore, or can a good model still make someone profitable?

I will say that such data models will definitely help a sports bettor analyze before placing a bet on a sport, that is correct, but when it comes to whether it will make a person or a gambler profitable, I will not say.
Because we cannot change the future by using any specific strategy or tools, what will happen in the future or what is written in our destiny is completely beyond our control. So while analysis can help in this case, this type of data model will never guarantee that we will be profitable.