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I have come across a lot of interesting posts regarding the topics you guys are touching upon and there are two specific questions I have.
The first question is, why do quite a few people still think that the 4 year cycle is so relevant? If it was, wouldn't the market react to patterns and adjust their actions accordingly, which would lead to a far more scattered pattern that doesn't allow for a simple exploitation of a strict pattern anymore? Assume that I know the market has at quite specific time windows acted in certain ways in the past, it would only be logical for me to adjust my actions and act either earlier or later, depending on whatever is favorable. Over time everyone would do that and how could the 4 year cycle still have significant effects when more and more people know that it makes more sense to not strictly stick to it? I would always try to buy before the masses buy because they drive up the price, and I would always try to sell before the masses sell. Since there are very strict patterns as suggested in many posts on bitcointalk, it should be possible for many marktet participants to be a little smarter than most others. And the more often one person tries to outsmart the others, the more this pattern loses meaning, or am I getting that wrong?
If these adjustments happen over many years, can there still be talk of a 4 year cycle? If I know there is a block halving coming and I know that buys became much stronger in the past three months before the halving, I will start buying four months before the halving. This was just put in simple terms, but you know what I mean I think. If I do it four months before and more market participants do it, it would be smart in the future to start buying five months or six months in advance.
The second question is, if an AI software was able to generate an alpha and if that AI software gets a million requests per day, how can there still be an alpha? Or a significant alpha? Since the more buyers or sellers get the same recommendation, there is less alpha left for everyone. It would have to adjust the strategy, give a new recommendation and give that to people so long that they still can benefit from it, then change the strategy again.
I understand that maybe some people got lucky with an AI advice from ChatGPT, but since everyone has access to those programs, the potential for significant alpha to be taken opportunity of is reduced with every single request from users.
The big companies use software all the time and that makes sense and they may have their own specified inputs, gathered information over time that they deem more valuable, but now that everyone has access to real time processing information, it's not like the whole world can win in times of stagnant markets. In that situation it must be a zero sum game that some can luckily win due to leveraged positions or other techniques.
You have been registered here about as long as me dzonikg28, and if you have been fucking around trying to trade for the past 12.5 years, then maybe you are still like a lost little puppy.
You don't need to try to trade 4-year cycles in order to still profit from them, since in bitcoin, the longer that you been in bitcoin and erroring on the side of accumulation and hold, then the more likely that you have been prosperous in your focus on investing rather than fucking around trying to trade, and yeah, guys think that they are more sophisticated players if they are trying to trade the 4 year cycle, and perhaps some guys have gotten lucky trying to trade the 4 year cycle, yet the mere luck of some guys should not justify that it is a good thing to be fucking around trying to trade the 4 year cycle.
My own personal ideas relate to accumulating a sufficiently large enough stash that you can figure out that you have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin, then once you get to enough or more than enough bitcoin, then you likely have more freedom to sell some of it.. by using price-based and/or time based sustainable withdrawal.
Even if you had started buying $50 per week in bitcoin in January 2014, you would have invested $2,600 per year and then invested just over $30k over the past 12.5 years to have had accumulated right around 17.52 BTC, which seems difficult to presume that you would have had needed to get better returns than that.
Of course, my own story is a bit different since I started to use my own version of price based sustainable withdrawal towards the middle/end of 2015, even though I had to hone (and tailorize) my own systems/practices, yet it seems to me that
right now, even
with time-based sustainable withdrawal, a guy with 17.52 BTC could have a sustainable withdrawal rate of right around $7,825 per month, which would be about $94k per year, and I am pretty sure that the guy can give himself a 7% cost of living adjustment raise in the dollar amount each year, which would be a pretty damned good investment for having had merely put in $30k over the past 12.5 years.
Accordingly, given my own above description, I have difficulties seeing how someone fucking around with trading would have had done better than the guy who had focused mostly on buying and accumulating of bitcoin.
Of course, at the same time, past results do not guarantee future results, even though I personally continue to advocate staying focused on buying and accumulating and don't get overly distracted by 4 year cycles, even though so far they continue to seem to exist and to have affects on upward and downward periods in the bitcoin spot price market, yet at the same time, there seems to be quite a bit of advantage to build up a guy's bitcoin stash through focusing on ongoing buying, and ongoing buying seems to help to build the bitcoin stash since since we can never have a lot of confidence in regards to bitcoin price direction, even if a bitcoin 4 year cycle continues to seem to exist..... and then once his bitcoin stash gets larger then he might be able to start to employ selling to either maintain his stash or to start to sustainably withdrawal through price-based and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal methods, perhaps similar to the ones that I talk about in
my thread on the sustainable withdrawal topic?
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You sounded manipulative here, and actually constructed your response in the opposite of what I wrote.
Regardless, I stand by what I said, and to summarise/rephrase what I wrote to the OP:
1a. Learn Bitcoin online to allow you focus in gaining understanding, instead of random replies.
1b. Use Gemini/ChatGPT to point you to the right links and articles that will help your learning.
2. Plan your investment around the Bitcoin's 4-year cycle.
I don't think I see where Trading comes in play in that, and neither did I see where Gemini/ChatGPT is giving the direct instructions and investment advice.
I stick with what I said also. You seem to have difficulties recognizing how there is no real need for investors to incorporate trading into their investing practices.
If guys have goals to accumulate bitcoin then selling bitcoin in order to accumulate bitcoin does not make a lot of sense, even though you are free to do what you like, even though you likely contribute to a lot of confusion when you ongoingly fail/refuse to distinguish trading from investing... and there are many ways that vague proclamations about the benefits of Gemini/ChatGPT is going to end up helping guys to distinguish between investing and trading if they are coming at it with a problematic framework and a confused mind.
By the way, I am a pretty big fan of AI systems too, when it comes to learning certain topics, yet there are needs to both put in good prompts and to guide it into areas in ways that help to clarify confusion and even to sort through topics, so there could be ways that guys end up developing their own ideas about how to deploy investing versus trading, even though there surely continue to be a lot of ways that they can both become confused and distracted into trading and crypto rather than focusing on investing in bitcoin, which will end up causing them to lose money rather than to be ongoingly building their bitcoin stash and strengthening their cashflow management systems/practices.
For sure, many of us recognize and appreciate that if we are able to increase our discretionary income, then we will tend to have more money to work with in order to be able to invest, save and/or discretionarily consume, and surely it could be possible that AI could also be helpful for guys to figure out ways to increase their discretionary income by increasing their income and/or decreasing some of their expenses.
Whether guys utilize AI in their brain storming of ideas or not, building wealth tends to take a long time, even though surely many of us likely get tempted into wanting to take short-cuts and to try to get rich quick, which may well lead us into engaging in activities that might not be to our longer term advantage, even though they might appear to have decently good chances of paying off in the short-term.
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Secondly, I don't think planning your investment within the 4-years circle is good enough for an intending love term HODLer. We can't predict the market as we know, meaning that there is no assurance that a 4-years HODLing period will yield anything tangible due to its volatility. Thus, the best is to just set a long term target while remaining consistent in the market as you buy gradually with your Discretionary income.
EarnOnVictor is not suggesting that guys invest in bitcoin for ONLY 4 years, but instead he is suggesting that guys try to play the waves of the 4-year cycle, since he seems to believe that playing the 4-year wave is an "easy way" to make more money as compared with guys who merely ongoingly buy bitcoin. In other words, EarnOnVictor, continues to make a lot of assumptions that guys can figure out when to sell and to buy back...and also when to slow down in their buying (presumptively at the top) and to slow down in their selling (presumptively at the bottom). He believes that there are techniques (and learnings) to be able to identify where the BTC price is going before it happens.. so that guys can supposedly make more money by following a trading technique as compared with following strict buying only techniques.
After making this kind of decision just make sure you maintain your consistency and also persistently in accumulating your Bitcoin and also have in mind that you are an investor not a trader. Holding your Bitcoin for as long as you can but it shouldn't be less than four years because if it is less than four years you will be considered as a trader. It should be minimum of 8+ years.
If possible, it could be more than 8 years, as you mentioned above. Yes, maintaining consistency requires constantly seeking passive income so the balance can continue to grow. For example, we usually pay $50 in installments in an accumulation plan. With additional income, it can increase to at least $60. That's quite a lot, isn't it? Simple, but it works.
For many guys it is going to be more than 8 years to really build a decently good bitcoin stash size, and yeah, it is likely good to increase the amount of bitcoin that you are buying weekly, if your discretionary income goes up.
If you are trying to figure out how much time it is going to take you, then you likely have to look at how much of your income you are putting in. If you are putting in 10% of your income, then it is going to take you nearly 10 years to put in a year's worth of your income, and so guys who are able to put higher percentages of their income, they are going to get to a point of reaching enough or more than enough sooner, yet even if they have enough or more than enough, they still might not transition into being able to sell until after going through a maintenance phase that might be 2-4 years or more.
You are in the best place to figure out both the amounts that you are able to put into bitcoin and also how long you expect that the amount that you put in is going to add up to significantly large amounts, depending on what the bitcoin price ends up doing in the next 4-10 years or longer.
One ofthe things that make new investors to lack confidence in Bitcoin investment is that they lack the basic understanding of what Bitcoin is all about and for sure Bitcoin to them is an escape route to poverty and other financial challenges, Bitcoin to them have the ability to make them rich quick, but in the end when the reality with Bitcoin happens, they will begin to play the blame game and not accepting they own fault of not studying Bitcoin and understand the market volitilities around Bitcoin.
Not knowing about Bitcoin or its volatility can lead to a lack of confidence in investing. Many people think that Bitcoin is a way to make money and its price will only increase. However, those who know do not just expect to make a profit, they know how volatile it is and how much expectation is realistic. Therefore, those who trade Bitcoin thinking it is a way to make money end up losing money and end up blaming Bitcoin, even though they are responsible for their own decisions. Therefore, one should have realistic expectations and ideas when investing, otherwise the investor himself will be responsible for unrealistic expectations.
Ongoingly we should be reminded that our attempts should be to try to control what we are able to control and to not get worked up about the parts that we are not able to control. So we are able to choose our levels of aggressiveness in regards to how much bitcoin we buy and how regularly we buy bitcoin, and we are also able to control the extent to which we strengthen our cashflow management practices in terms of how much we choose to put into savings (back up funds) and/or discretionary consumption.
And, yeah, from time to time, we are likely going to have to make adjustments based on
our own 9 personal factors, so it is likely good if we are striving to stay aware and to make adjustments to our own personal factors.
