Three Polymarket traders made timely bets on US-Iran ceasefire

[FirmWars]

Although anyone could have won such prediction but this is an inside information for the fact that those traders were just newly registered account whom must have got a confirmation from somewhere urging them to immediately create account and bet. If it can be confirmed that those traders were the only people to win a great amount like that, then it's probably insider trading but if other traders also traded with a large fund and won as much as those new commers did, then it must have been a fair play which was a process of proper analysis by those guys.

[IsraelK]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

The timing and nature of these trades have certainly raised significant red flags within the crypto and financial communities. While there is no "official" legal verdict yet, several factors from the report and blockchain data strongly suggest the possibility of insider trading or at least highly asymmetrical information.

[STT]

Unfortunately there is some security risk occurring from the relatively large amounts like this being made.   It would seem not best if anyone can profit from any event even one they have created or played a part in and had knowledge of beforehand.
  Allowing insider dealing of that sort seems dangerous to me because it provokes the possibility they will do something erratic to make a headline just to win and profit without trace.

[SamReomo]

Is this not another insider trading?

There's chance of Insider trading in it but I don't think that those bets had much of Insider trading thing because most people already were sure that there'll be ceasefire and some neighbor countries of Iran will play their role in negotiations related to ceasefire.

However, there's still a good chance that those wallets were funded by people who might have played some role in negotiations and were 100% sure about the cease fire and that's why they placed those bets.

[Hispo]

I mean. I don't thing this was just people randomly believing there was actually going to be a ceasefire and bet a significant amount of money on it.
I would easily bet this was a very blatant case of inside trading, and unfortunately it has become a very common sight within prediction markets.

The worst part about it is how the government of the United States the the Trump administration do not seem to care about people within the federal government to use their privileged information to make hundred of thousands on dollars on the internet, while screwing over people who do not have any information, but burn their neurones trying to analyze geopolitics.

[FinneysTrueVision]

I’ve been skeptical whether these trades were really made by insiders or just bettors who got extremely lucky. Then it came out that there was some Israeli soldiers who accurately made predictions about when the war would start and they made a lot of money. The whole nature of prediction markets leaves them wide open for those kinds of situations. Just some weeks ago there was a scandal revealed by ZachXBT related to the Axiom exchange and it turns out that the employee who was exposed by the scandal also allegedly profited by placing bets on his own exchange being the subject of the investigation. It may be extremely unethical, but some people just can’t help themselves when they see an opportunity to make easy money.

[Moreno233]

This is likely not an insider trading because even if they knew that the ceasefire would work from the side of the US, they may not know if Iran was going to accept it or not. Secondly, the ceasefire have been on the news for long, so anyone can easily predict it was likely to happen. I knew it was going to happen because the next phase of escalation being attack on critical infrastructure was supposed to be a major red line that no one would be bold to cross which means both sides needed time to ponder on it.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

The bolded part says it all, it is very possible to be from the same person. He just created 3 wallets to reduce suspicion and deceive people that it is a random guess.  This is a clear case of having access to classified information, no external person would guess easily that it would come in a space of hours. The whole buildup just looks suspicious.

Is this not another insider trading?

Every indication points the the fact that it is. The user created new wallets for more privacy, but I think it's was done by a regular user.

[viljy]

Well, think about it, Trump was talking about the destruction of civilization, in fact, he hinted at the use of nuclear weapons. And at the same time, someone is betting on a truce. Then a truce is declared (although it has already ended - and has not begun - the strait is closed again due to violations of the conditions imposed by Iran). Does it look like manipulation? However, it is impossible to prove anything - but that's exactly what the Polymarket was created for (an ingenious invention... to scam everyone in plain sight). So it's just luck! It seems that there were also some oil shorts for 950 million, which is also a coincidence...

[bastisisca]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

This thing is now starting to stink badly, what could happen if not the distancing of people from this market which they believe is rigged or used by people who know the events in advance.
Obviously it's a dirty trick that doesn't allow you to play by the rules.

[X-ray]

It's obviously an insider trading. This is my reason to call prediction market is absolutely BS. It's exist only to facilitating people with the insider knowledge to extract the retail for their own bag.

It makes me believe anything about prediction market it's all grift. Anyone who is still trading there is dumb enough to think they can win against the insider bullshit.

[lombok]

Unfortunately there is some security risk occurring from the relatively large amounts like this being made.   It would seem not best if anyone can profit from any event even one they have created or played a part in and had knowledge of beforehand.
  Allowing insider dealing of that sort seems dangerous to me because it provokes the possibility they will do something erratic to make a headline just to win and profit without trace.

The possibility that anyone can take any action to affect the discourse of the masses is a huge alert to any fund manager focused on security. Profiteering practices which facilitate profit making by secretly getting information access create imbalances which harm various parties all over the world. In the absence of stringent laws, the desire to unleash artificial conditions to be made financially will hardly be kept under control and can lead to havoc. One of the cornerstones of the safe and responsible economic order is the protection of the integrity of transactions.

[Charles-Tim]

Anyone who is still trading there is dumb enough to think they can win against the insider bullshit.

I guess you have not bet or gamble on prediction markets before. Have you? The three accounts can be insider's or insiders' work but there are other events and things that you can bet on prediction markets. Example is bitcoin price predictions and sport matches predictions. Especially the bitcoin price predictions will be hard to manipulate unless the bitcoin price is manipulated.

[Nwada001]

Are these wins a coincidence? I don't think so since these accounts were newly created and funded. The amount that was risked is also suspicous.

I assume that some set of people is getting constant inside information from someone close to the corridors of power in the US. Polymarket have need to seek means to investigate this suspicoin because it is affecting the reputation of their platform.  

This is not the first time some bettors on Polymarket have been accused of having something to do with insider information, but we can also look at it from another area: someone who is already a user for privacy reasons can just create and fund a new wallet to stake on such an event due to privacy reasons, we can also look at it from that area.

And if you want to use the money wagered as a reason to doubt, then you should also check the amount people stake on dice and other games at a go in some casino play history, and you will happen to find out that some people take crazy risks, and if they don't win the bet, they lose a significant amount. There could be the possibility of it being an insider job, but we also need to look at it from other angles.

[KTChampions]

This is likely not an insider trading because even if they knew that the ceasefire would work from the side of the US, they may not know if Iran was going to accept it or not. Secondly, the ceasefire have been on the news for long, so anyone can easily predict it was likely to happen. I knew it was going to happen because the next phase of escalation being attack on critical infrastructure was supposed to be a major red line that no one would be bold to cross which means both sides needed time to ponder on it.

You are naive, it was not just a ceasefire, but a ceasefire on that very day, i.e. there were only a few hours left before the completion of the deal. At this point, those who bet large sums on an event whose window for execution closed in a few hours were highly likely insiders. As for Iran's possible objection, the US announced the ceasefire as agreement with Iran's plan. Why should Iran object? The US announced its objection the morning after the ceasefire took effect.

[rdluffy]

It's obviously an insider trading. This is my reason to call prediction market is absolutely BS. It's exist only to facilitating people with the insider knowledge to extract the retail for their own bag.

It makes me believe anything about prediction market it's all grift. Anyone who is still trading there is dumb enough to think they can win against the insider bullshit.

I don’t deny that there are insiders, or people with the ability to influence the outcome, but the predictions are open to everyone
If you follow specific wallets (accounts) that you think are run by insiders, or that get a lot of their predictions right, you can make the same predictions and try to make some money 

Some events are practically impossible to predict, like the price of BTC itself, it’s even been mentioned here before
Unless you make a major prediction and have enough money to manipulate the price of BTC

[Strongkored]

Is this not another insider trading?

It was indeed suspicious because it seemed planned, I doubted it was a coincidence.
While other possibilities are possible, such as the fact that it's a new wallet because the bettor doesn't want to mix up the wallets used to store their primary assets for direct gambling, whatever the case, it actually shows how the prediction market also includes fixed matches and insider betting.

[crwth]

There's just too much insider trading IMO. Imagine betting that much, and it's a new wallet or something? It's just so unfair to everyone. I agree that it's too timely and likely to be anything else.

Since there are no laws on prediction markets right now, it's really hard to go with this. Is there anything about this on Polymarket?

[Slow death]

Ever since I heard about this prediction market and then checked the website, I started wondering how they would guarantee that there would be no manipulation in each market, because it's a difficult task. This example of the war in Iran is just one case; there are probably many other cases that go unnoticed and that people bet on. I believe that with the popularity of the platform and the times we live in, where this youth doesn't take life very seriously, I wouldn't be surprised to hear that government officials from certain countries are betting on this site based on privileged information.

My curiosity is about the maximum amount of money each person is allowed to bet on this site, because I don't have an account on this site and I don't like betting on the prediction market, but I wonder if it's worth it for a public official from a first-world country to risk losing their job because of leaking important information and making bets based on privileged information. Because I honestly don't see that as a risk worth taking.

[passwordnow]

There's just too much insider trading IMO. Imagine betting that much, and it's a new wallet or something? It's just so unfair to everyone. I agree that it's too timely and likely to be anything else.

Since there are no laws on prediction markets right now, it's really hard to go with this. Is there anything about this on Polymarket?

Very unfair because they know what's about to happen and that's against the fairness of the bookies and other bettors too. While they can't be violated for how timely the bets are and new the wallets they used for doing that. Polymarket should have that detection if something is suspicious with their bettors because if this happens to the usual bookies that we use, they're going to mark it with a red flag.