Three Polymarket traders made timely bets on US-Iran ceasefire

[Yaunfitda]

There's just too much insider trading IMO. Imagine betting that much, and it's a new wallet or something? It's just so unfair to everyone. I agree that it's too timely and likely to be anything else.

Since there are no laws on prediction markets right now, it's really hard to go with this. Is there anything about this on Polymarket?

Very unfair because they know what's about to happen and that's against the fairness of the bookies and other bettors too. While they can't be violated for how timely the bets are and new the wallets they used for doing that. Polymarket should have that detection if something is suspicious with their bettors because if this happens to the usual bookies that we use, they're going to mark it with a red flag.

Of course, they have the advantage as they have the information that public doesn't have. But as far as Polymarket goes, they can defend themselves by saying that they didn't know who that person or persons are, they just open an account and list their bet and put money on it. So it's really as what others see, a free for all, wild wild west of a platform. No one is in control, no authority or accountability from Polymarket, they will just allowed everything in their platform as long as they are also going to make money out of it so why not? But now it looks like authorities are now breathing on their neck because of this kind of attitude, but still they are not willing to cooperate and that could be their downfall.

[rdluffy]

It seems this is gaining traction and is already causing concern at the White House

Check this out:


Full article here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgld65x396go

[programmer3666]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

It does look suspicious to be honest. when people make big bets just before something important happens, it can feel like they had inside information. But it is also possible they just got lucky or read the situation very well. If for example someone follows the news closely and notices tension reducing between two countries, so they place a bet early and it works out. Or in sports betting, a person might hear rumors about a key player being injured before it is announced, place a bet and win big after the news becomes public.

[TastyChillySauce00]

After i read the news about whitehouse warned its staff not to bet on prediction market. I'm feeling this kind of bets may be linked to the people who has access to the insider. New wallet that accurately betting on the non common event with very high accuracy. Event a professional trader would be so hard to do that without the help of insiders.
It's hard to say it's not insider trading. I don't think an ordinary people would even think to bet on such event. This also clearly shows how prediction market is the most super corrupt system that let people openly bet on the most rigging system.  

[Beparanf]

After i read the news about whitehouse warned its staff not to bet on prediction market. I'm feeling this kind of bets may be linked to the people who has access to the insider. New wallet that accurately betting on the non common event with very high accuracy. Event a professional trader would be so hard to do that without the help of insiders.
It's hard to say it's not insider trading. I don't think an ordinary people would even think to bet on such event. This also clearly shows how prediction market is the most super corrupt system that let people openly bet on the most rigging system.  

Fair point and considering how much money they are willing to risk with a lot of uncertainty of the condition unless they are sure about the outcome based on the schedule.

Some of this questionable bet timing is very accurate like the time when US attack Venezuela and Iran on specific date while it seems so hard to predict when it will truly happened.

Since this betting market promote decentralized, this is the main reason why insider has high confidence on betting like this.

[danherbias07]

They probably are taking action on it.

I mean, they saw how these people are taking advantage of the events that are happening in the world, and I bet it is an insider who commanded some of their friends or relatives to place the bets. There's a chance he/she is also the one who funded the money for those people to place those bets.

This is where this type of industry should be aware of. There will be those who will take advantage of their different kind of trades/markets just so they can make profits. I bet this will not be the last time it happens. There will be more.

[YOSHIE]

Is this not another insider trading?

That's what's been happening lately every time you win gambling on the Polymarket prediction betting site, there are always pros and cons, Maybe this happens because every time a user wins a large amount above the 6 digits, this becomes a problem that is difficult to solve, whether the person is playing or it is pure luck.

Recently the Polymarket site has been in the world spotlight, because they are close to Trump and operate in the US, things like this can be suspicious and question marks for users who place other bets, that's how the world of gambling works, what is considered true can be considered a lie and what is a lie can be considered true, that is the world of gambling.

[KTChampions]

After i read the news about whitehouse warned its staff not to bet on prediction market. I'm feeling this kind of bets may be linked to the people who has access to the insider. New wallet that accurately betting on the non common event with very high accuracy. Event a professional trader would be so hard to do that without the help of insiders.
It's hard to say it's not insider trading. I don't think an ordinary people would even think to bet on such event. This also clearly shows how prediction market is the most super corrupt system that let people openly bet on the most rigging system.  

Ordinary people bet on red/black and shove money into slot machines! You clearly underestimate the stupidity of "ordinary" people  In my opinion, it is much more rational to bet money on events that are directly related to the real world (sports, politics) than on the results of the RNG. And I don't see any problem with insider trading, that's the whole point of prediction platforms: those who have information "sell" it to those who don't. I don't dispute that in the places where the information leaks, this is a problem and, in most cases, a crime.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Is this not another insider trading?

Anything advanced info these users get and once they bet on gambling or prediction market is considered an insider trading. I believed using newly funded wallet too is a clear sign they know something. Whats the rationale there? These guys doesnt have an account yet or likely dont want to be associated on their other wallets used (provided their old users).

Being confidence too on the amount of bet is clear sign they know things. Maybe relatives to some politician inside and got the tip somethinfg like that.

[passwordnow]

There's just too much insider trading IMO. Imagine betting that much, and it's a new wallet or something? It's just so unfair to everyone. I agree that it's too timely and likely to be anything else.

Since there are no laws on prediction markets right now, it's really hard to go with this. Is there anything about this on Polymarket?

Very unfair because they know what's about to happen and that's against the fairness of the bookies and other bettors too. While they can't be violated for how timely the bets are and new the wallets they used for doing that. Polymarket should have that detection if something is suspicious with their bettors because if this happens to the usual bookies that we use, they're going to mark it with a red flag.

Of course, they have the advantage as they have the information that public doesn't have. But as far as Polymarket goes, they can defend themselves by saying that they didn't know who that person or persons are, they just open an account and list their bet and put money on it. So it's really as what others see, a free for all, wild wild west of a platform. No one is in control, no authority or accountability from Polymarket, they will just allowed everything in their platform as long as they are also going to make money out of it so why not? But now it looks like authorities are now breathing on their neck because of this kind of attitude, but still they are not willing to cooperate and that could be their downfall.

If they are to conduct an investigation, they should make some bullets and points so that this can be avoided in the nearest future. Because if it's done to them before and that was a success, it's possible that these people will continue to do it again but with another catch. They won't probably use new accounts and wallets anymore but older ones and it's possible the next thing they'd do is to buy those old accounts there. Even it is a free for all market, they need to make the market free and fair to everybody and also to them as a decentralized platform.

[Franctoshi]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

Big-time insider job if this is precisely how it happened. They're a group of stakers milking and taking advantage of this event and ripping off the platform, and they should get investigated about who and how they are getting this insider info regarding what action President Donald J. Trump is going to take next. If they're part of a government entity, no one is going to investigate this to the core; the matter will just die down, but it should be treated as a serious case.

[Kelward]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.

Read the full gist on: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire

Is this not another insider trading?

From what you have shared here it is quite evident that it is an insider trading because the coincidence is not quite realistic, three accounts just registered on the same platform and within a short period their predictions played accordingly. Even if it's actually coincidence but because of the mistrust about suspicious insider tradings people will still be skeptical about them being genuine guesses. This developments are not good for the reputation of prediction market because of the clear manipulations by insider traders that is worse than match fixings in sports bet.

[Fiatless]

They probably are taking action on it.

I mean, they saw how these people are taking advantage of the events that are happening in the world, and I bet it is an insider who commanded some of their friends or relatives to place the bets. There's a chance he/she is also the one who funded the money for those people to place those bets.

This is where this type of industry should be aware of. There will be those who will take advantage of their different kind of trades/markets just so they can make profits. I bet this will not be the last time it happens. There will be more.

I am pleased that the White House is taking action. But banning officials from gambling is not enough for me. The matter should be investigated, and those who are found guilty of insider trading should be punished. While common gamblers are genuinely placing bets, influential people are making easy money. This is an injustice and should be investigated.

[nimogsm]

Three new wallets were created on April 7, funded and used to bet on Iran and United States to cease fire. Few hours later there was a cease fire for at least 2 weeks I think. The three accounts won the money.

As for me, I will not be deceived by all this and go for polymarket gambling, irrespective of the condition that is involved, I don't see it as a buy idea for me to play prediction market because this is not even interesting at all, I can't be gambling on human lives and still yet they risk in playing this is very high than not.

For me, it's also wild to bet on such scenarios. But there are people for whom this is the norm, and I don't judge. If you look at all this through the prism of what's happening in the world, this is only a small part of what's entering the information field, and imagining the global scale of it is simply unsettling. If someone thinks such forecasts and bets are the norm, that's their business; the day will come when it affects them too.