Analysis based on stats might be useless

[Botnake]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

[Wapfika]

It’s hard to give an opinion if there’s no specific sports or league being mentioned here because sports have different organizations and type of management to ensure fair league.

I’m not a regular sports bettor but I fully believe on the stats analysis to determine the outcome of the game. There’s just some game which unexpected can happened since players and team can slump on specific games even though they are initially strong. This is normal scenario since our human body is complex and there’s no guarantee we can play consistently on all the game.

It’s always analysis and luck to be successful on sportsbetting.

[cryptoaddictchie]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

So you believed that some league games even they dont start playing yet per match has already an outcome since it was controlled? I cant argue with that cause thats a possibility. Well theres not much proof on it but game fixing even at the highest level is possible indeed. Its just too bad if this is really happening at some prestigue league out there.

Sometimes bets are based on odds so they just simply favor it even though the chances for -odds team are less chance of winning.

[DubemIfedigbo001]

Some sports matches are being rigged actually, majorly in lower leagues and few of the higher leagues and when you place bets, it's mostly What you ordered vs What you get settings that play out, but every now and then we hear of people getting a big win, which makes me keep asking myself if it's just about me, or are the betting companies just staging winners . It brings us back to the fact that gambling is more about luck than accurate predictions, because after spending much time analyzing and predicting games, 90 minutes of play would still decide if we were lucky enough to win.

[Dave1]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

Maybe, but it's hard to get that proof mate. And I do think that almost every league could be rigged.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

If we will select just a few games that we know, then maybe we can still win or at least have a net positive outcome. But if you go and try every games to bet, then sooner or later the law of large numbers might caught up with you.

Yes, that's one thing that we want to check, maybe there could be wild swings and bet and that could only mean that something is not right on that game and so it's better to stay away as your gut feeling might be right.

[Free Market Capitalist]

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone.

That's true, but it's not because a few games in minor leagues might be rigged; it's because an individual simply can't match the analytical capabilities of bookmakers and casinos. They have far more money to invest in statistical analysis tools—and, these days, AI. It's not impossible, but it's difficult for an individual to find an edge.

[TopTort777]

In MMA making an analysis often is useless, because one lucky punch changes everything. You can process data of every fight, follow every social media to figure out what happens in fighters life, put prediction on paper, where in every aspect your fighter wins (more wins, more fights, more experienced, more wins against fighter who is skilled in striking and etc), bookies tell that your guy is 1.50< favorite. Your guy has been crippling his opponent for 4 rounds. His opponent even require motivation speech from coaches to continue fighting after first round. And that huge underdog lands one lucky high kick and win... That is why all that analysis is sometimes a bs, and you should bet live.

[freedomgo]

Just do what works for you. That “rigged” thing has never really been proven in major sports. Maybe we think it’s rigged because the outcome didn’t go the way we expected.

But in reality, it’s usually the odds providers who make one side look very attractive, and that becomes the trap. It’s not always that the game is rigged, it’s more like we end up convincing ourselves too much about an outcome that turns out to be wrong most of the time.

[swogerino]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

Well I don't want to repeat what you have said but this is a well known fact. Before the year 2000 in fact people were able even to hit some extreme 13 games which was organized in Italy called Tottosport or something like that and people almost every week there was a winner. I want to say with this that gambling was not as massive as it is today while after the year 2000 thanks also to the boom in information technology online gambling rose a lot. Now referees are the ones who decide the outcome of events and we don't know their integrity, they surely impact games and results.

[Charles-Tim]

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

This is not related to a match that will be manipulated..what if the match is played and the team that most people choose won? Another thing is if you choose the other team to win, but what if the teams draw instead. The way sort betting is, even if the matches are not manipulated, the gambling sites know how they will set the odd for almost all bettors to lose after they have bet in few matches in parlays or singles.

[Stepstowealth]

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

You surely cannot win with analysis alone because if it was so then individuals who are very good with analysis maybe statistics would have been very successful gamblers. In gambling after you've done your analysis it only points you in a likely outcome of the game you're about to bet on, there is also and always the room for you to make your bets or place your bets base on some intuition or guts feeling of how you think the game may turn out to be. I feel the best gamblers are gamblers who do not bets with their guts feeling alone or intuition or gamblers who make only analysis and then make bets base on their analysis, the best gamblers are gamblers who know how to combine their gut feeling intuition and then some analysis.

[rdluffy]

But what sport are you talking about?
I don't think anyone here would take offense if you mentioned which league it is, haha

Some results can be really frustrating, I've lost several bets in the final minutes of soccer games
I'm sure some games or players might still be linked to betting rings, but that's extremely hard to prove

[Sammye3]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

Analysis based on stats is not totally useless , but would help to reduce the incidence of loss. Without stats, it would be difficult to predict possible outcomes during a match which would lead to wrong choices. But in all this, betting is luck-based so statistics should not be a guarantee for correct outcomes but just should be seen as a guide.

[Agbe]

I think we have discussed such topic this year. Some believed that it is manipulated (rigged) while some see it from another dimension. As I said before, others might be buy live football is hard to manipulate because you place your bet on the team you know would win the game and sometimes after placing the bet, you can go to the field and watch the match but there are times, the team we believed that would win the match, play off game and loss the match. And stats is what has happened between the teams. Op you have to know that team performance change. Either from the coach or the players.

[Findingnemo]

If those games are rigged then they are not going to have the same popularity for very long and it's not just a sport anymore it is kind of business that makes more money when they win so everyone wants to win but we can't also deny the games can be fixed or atleast the players but those are rare and saying the entire league is rigged seems like a bit of exaggeration that is coming out of desperation.

[Strongkored]

I also believe that there are matches where the scores are already fixed, and I even suspect that this happens in major leagues as well. However, if our suspicions cannot be proven, then they are also useless. 
I will still carry out analysis before betting even if the results might already be fixed, because no matter what, we never know which matches are fixed, so it is still necessary to analyze since this is also important when betting on matches whose results turn out to be genuine.

[AmaGold70]

In gambling, most times, the bet doesn't favour majority of the gamblers, this is because every gambler plays their bet with different options, and while your own option may not favour you, the other person's option may be favourable to him or her. On a normal ground, bets are being played based on the team's performance, and form, even though as gamblers we feel games are being manipulated, deviating from placing games based on team's strength and performance will cause gamblers more harm than good. Imagine when a team is performing well, and they are at the top of their league, now they are playing against the team that is at the bottom of their league, is a difficult thing to say the team at the bottom will win the the leading team just because you feel the match can be manipulated, it is normal to give winning to the leading team .

[Moreno233]

I have been in the gambling business for long to understand that some games are truly rigged. The rigging is in various forms and degrees but they are usually done in a way that it will not become obvious. Despite this realization, I try my best not to put that at heart because I don't have the means of identifying a rigged games and what options they were designed to produce as result. I just regard the entire thing as the reason it is gambling, we win some and lose some.  

[danherbias07]

Yeah, I agree with that. But analysis is not useless. If the game is rigged for the winner based on stats, then you will still do it right. Most sports games have only one winner out of 2 teams or 2 players. So it still becomes 50/50. Now, if the one who rigged it has placed their bets for the winner, which is actually the favorite, then I guess we will actually win it too.

Anyway, I still believe that professional sports are not doing it. But, there are instances when you will really feel like it's been scripted or someone is in control of what is supposed to happen for the results to be in their advantage.

[stadus]

Maybe you’ve changed your analysis, and that’s normal because we all want to win. If we’re not seeing good results with our old way, then of course we’ll try to improve. And for you to reach this kind of thinking, it just shows you’ve become more mature in sports betting. You’re no longer relying only on the numbers you see, but also on the speculation around the sports betting world.

That’s not really new to us either. We can find a lot of videos online about conspiracy theories in games, so if you believe that really happens and you use it as part of your analysis, and it gives you positive results, then it’s probably better to stick with it.

Maybe one day you’ll even decide to create your own thread and share your picks. I’d actually like to follow it too if it turns out profitable.