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Author Topic: Analysis based on stats might be useless  (Read 1361 times)
Dr.Bitcoin_Strange
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April 29, 2026, 12:04:17 PM
 #81

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone.

First, there are people here who would also share the same opinion like yours in the case of leagues that involves in match rigging, so if you had mention the leagues you are suspecting, it is not supposed to annoy anyone, perhaps it's for us to learn from it and also do our own findings. We can not beat every sports betting through analysis but I do believe that it can still give an edge too in some  games, we don't have to use just statistical analysis but our intuition also help us at times.

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April 29, 2026, 12:32:37 PM
 #82

Sometimes it can be useful to watch how the line moves, but it can be a trap too.
I mark teams that have fixed games and try to avoid such games. Or i can risk with small sum to make a bet against stats, but casino can decide that you a cheater.
The best way as for me to make small bets for lots of events. It takes lots of time to analyze it, but as result fixed matches wouldn`t be a problem.
But, the thing there is that gambler should follow their instincts and do what is right and good for them, and avoid anything that will cause them more of their time and stress, which they might be able to enjoy the game again, instead they should just remain to be a responsible gambler and vet with the amount they can afford to lose, which they can enjoy gambling and also discipline themselves to avoid unwanted losses.
You are talking about gambling for fun and your words are correct. The same time, i`m talking about gambling for profit. It is another kind of gambling. It looks like a job when you do the same things every day for long period. I was happy only when calculated monthly results(like salary) and sometimes when caught huge odd or made rare big bet.
Today i bet for fun mostly, without serious analyze and seems your words are about my nowadays gambling.

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April 29, 2026, 03:15:49 PM
 #83

However, I would say analysis remains relevant despite the fact that some sports wherein integrity is increasingly questioned. But this is not anymore predicting who could be the winners or what will be the result is, but its more on identifying anomalies that continue to ruin the sports name and its integrity.

Still, we can't conclude that most of the sports are target of being rigged. That would harm the sports betting market if ever in general. But as long as we are seeing lucky and skilled winners, not staged winners, we can therefore say that sports betting still worth to bet of our money and time.

 
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April 29, 2026, 03:47:00 PM
 #84

However, I would say analysis remains relevant despite the fact that some sports wherein integrity is increasingly questioned. But this is not anymore predicting who could be the winners or what will be the result is, but its more on identifying anomalies that continue to ruin the sports name and its integrity.

Still, we can't conclude that most of the sports are target of being rigged. That would harm the sports betting market if ever in general. But as long as we are seeing lucky and skilled winners, not staged winners, we can therefore say that sports betting still worth to bet of our money and time.
Match fixing kills the beautiful game of sports. This is why I support any means by which sports administrators intend to reduce or eradicate match fixing. Fining, suspension and even banning sportmen are some of the means by which convicted players are punished.

But the abnormality in some league or games shouldn't be the reason why you would stop doing the right things before placing bets. Analysing games is compulsory in sports bets. These days you can easily get preditions using artificail intelligence tools.

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April 29, 2026, 04:20:09 PM
 #85

Match fixing kills the beautiful game of sports. This is why I support any means by which sports administrators intend to reduce or eradicate match fixing. Fining, suspension and even banning sportmen are some of the means by which convicted players are punished.

But the abnormality in some league or games shouldn't be the reason why you would stop doing the right things before placing bets. Analysing games is compulsory in sports bets. These days you can easily get preditions using artificail intelligence tools.

I think I'll agree to this cause you're right, if we start  judging games the match fixing in some leagues then no one would want to gamble again since they'll think every game is fixed, well the sport administrators are trying their best in ensuring fairness, especially in the area of match fixing, they can't totally be perfect in carrying out their duties but should do more better in other areas too cause lately the VAR is making many errors than expected.
 I don't think anyone just bet on games blindly without some analysis, although it doesn't guarantee that a gamblers would win their predictions but help give them clues to pick options that might lead to potential winnings.

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April 29, 2026, 04:33:10 PM
 #86

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.
Stats are helpful to use in between making and can make the player have a pathway to what he is doing, at same time, the prospect is not maximum to what the player will anticipate following the stats analysis.

In the big sports leagues in Europe it is rare to hear about rigged events but it is not completely out of existence and not like what we have in those small leagues that matches as easily rigged  on regular' making stats unreliable.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side
You'll still lose my friend. Pray you are fortunate to fall on the right side at the time, cause you could still go on the side with less crowd and make losses.

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April 29, 2026, 04:33:28 PM
 #87

Stats are not useless when it comes to sports betting because it gives a clue of the possible reality of a match. Using statistics alone won't give you the winning, you also need to study the changes that are likely to occur after making your analysis. The chances of sporting events to be rigged is very slim because of the severe sanctions and punishments that can be given to those who engage in such act. There is no way to make gambling favorable in the long run and that is why it basically relies on luck. Again, our judgements about the outcome of a match differs because even after checking statistics, each person might give different opinion on what they think of the event. Betting a game without having a clue of how it might become is risky because despite that we gamble for fun, we should also make efforts that will likely go beyond just having fun.

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April 29, 2026, 06:04:04 PM
 #88

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

Sport bets shouldn't be this complicated, because there is only two possible side, lose or win, there is no win or win, or lose and lose, you either lose once or win once on that same match.

Even if the game is rigged, it either go right or left, two sides, so if I don't do research on the game and I choose to place a bet on it, just one side of the team, and I win, who cares if the game was rigged? To be it feels like an excuse to why you lost money.

If you are risking only what wouldn't bother your mind at all you will not care if the game is rigged or not, let them rig it, all you need is hope for luck, the good one.

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April 29, 2026, 06:53:50 PM
 #89

Stats are not useless when it comes to sports betting because it gives a clue of the possible reality of a match. Using statistics alone won't give you the winning, you also need to study the changes that are likely to occur after making your analysis. The chances of sporting events to be rigged is very slim because of the severe sanctions and punishments that can be given to those who engage in such act. There is no way to make gambling favorable in the long run and that is why it basically relies on luck. Again, our judgements about the outcome of a match differs because even after checking statistics, each person might give different opinion on what they think of the event. Betting a game without having a clue of how it might become is risky because despite that we gamble for fun, we should also make efforts that will likely go beyond just having fun.

Well, I would still draw a distinction between gambling and sports betting. With gambling, you’re obviously going to lose more often in the long run, but with sports betting, things can be different, especially if you don’t place bets randomly but do so more deliberately, that is, if you understand the sport you’re betting on and the relevant statistics.

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April 29, 2026, 07:52:28 PM
 #90

Stats are not useless when it comes to sports betting because it gives a clue of the possible reality of a match. Using statistics alone won't give you the winning, you also need to study the changes that are likely to occur after making your analysis.
That is true, analysis can not be totally useless because of how game usually end in a way we never expected. If analysis is left behind how can sport bettors bet their game? Or are they going to do a random selection prediction? Sincerely speaking betting and getting it right is never possible, so even though it is hard to predict, we shouldn't see it as if the analysis didn't work. Analysis works, just that house edge makes sports bet difficult to win.

The chances of sporting events to be rigged is very slim because of the severe sanctions and punishments that can be given to those who engage in such act.
There may be severe sanction or punishment to anyone who rigged sportbet, but how is that possible when there has been no prove, That law can not be effective because if this people rigged a game, it is almost impossible if not impossible to detect. Sportbet rigging is hard to detect that's why you don't hear people talks about it. It is always coded and everyone takes it as they see it since there is no prove.

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April 29, 2026, 07:52:38 PM
 #91

In sports betting, relying on statistics isn't a very good idea these days, since things are very different now. For example, in world football, I've seen how many games can appear to be rigged by the referees, and that makes me angry because it tarnishes the sport. So now there are no games that are clearly transparent; there are always inconsistencies that didn't exist before. Now, with more technology, there's more corruption. That's what's happening.

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April 29, 2026, 08:00:03 PM
 #92

Analysis is good for us to make when gambling, we should use different criterias to make our analysis and also compare them before arriving at the conclusion, the statistic we may be having could give us a direction to what to expect but they are not a mandate to what May happen, everything is still subjected to the probability of being right or wrong as we play our game, because things can be fast changing when it comes to gambling and how the statistics works.

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April 29, 2026, 08:43:53 PM
 #93

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.
It's better to be truthful and be hated than loved but with the lies. In esports, there have been a lot of low tier tournaments that have been rigged. thus, there's the history of being called '322' and it's about throwing the games because the player himself has bet against his team. And so, it's not that hidden anymore that if it's a sport or a league that's not too big and not that much money in it, teams and even the players might be involved in rigging the game and winning through betting against themselves.

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April 29, 2026, 08:45:23 PM
 #94

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.
Don't go for lower leagues, simple as that. It's not easy to rig games in major leagues, especially if they are telecasted live and watched worldwide, because then if something unusual is noticed, it will become a very big issue, because we know how fast the social media is nowadays, and no corporation would want them to become a news in the social media for allowing such things, so there will be closer inspections and everything to stop such things from happening in major leagues or tournaments, and even if it happens, it will happen rarely, so it's not like every other match will be rigged, maybe one in a 50 matches or something like that.

People mostly go for lower and not-so-popular leagues because of greed, it is because they get good odds, and they believe they have higher chances of making money on those leagues, and then if they lose because of the games being rigged, then it is their own fault as well, because they don't make their bets on major leagues and major matches because of the odds and the possibility of winning.

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April 29, 2026, 08:54:37 PM
 #95

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.
Match-fixing is not something we can completely avoid.



Quote
But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.


Yes, I understand that feeling, I once bet on a local match, when watching that match I felt that the match felt odd, but one thing is for sure we don't really know for sure if the match was controlled, therefore to reduce any form of cheating and make our analysis really useful is to bet on the big leagues, although it is not entirely safe because even the big leagues can manipulate but at least with stricter rules, it allows us to get fairer matches.

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April 29, 2026, 09:16:10 PM
 #96

Basically, it's just a guess, so it's still just a guess. Statistics do help us, but they're only a small help and won't improve our chances of winning. However, with these statistics, gambling becomes more interesting and less boring. We can make slightly better choices, even if they don't significantly contribute to our winnings.
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April 29, 2026, 09:32:23 PM
 #97

In sports betting, relying on statistics isn't a very good idea these days, since things are very different now. For example, in world football, I've seen how many games can appear to be rigged by the referees, and that makes me angry because it tarnishes the sport. So now there are no games that are clearly transparent; there are always inconsistencies that didn't exist before. Now, with more technology, there's more corruption. That's what's happening.

Yes this rigging that is happening in sport betting this time is now making the game to be very boring at the same time annoying, even most of the referees is making it look obvious. And sure the more we are advancing in technology that's the more corruption is also increasing, truly if not because of this rig that has been happening in sport betting I think people would have been making more winnings even though it's a game of luck because I know how many times i would have won a huge amount of money but at the end that team I have more confident in will be the one to ruin the whole game, and if you watch it you  will see that the match is already fixed.


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Wakate
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April 29, 2026, 09:44:14 PM
 #98

Basically, it's just a guess, so it's still just a guess. Statistics do help us, but they're only a small help and won't improve our chances of winning. However, with these statistics, gambling becomes more interesting and less boring. We can make slightly better choices, even if they don't significantly contribute to our winnings.
Statistics do help players to know how to bet and to know what team is active and in form so they can stake on them.
Gambling is not something you can easily predict and you need some kind of statistics that will help you to make decisions that will attract the ability to make profits from betting.

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GeorgeJohn
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April 29, 2026, 09:50:14 PM
 #99

Yes this rigging that is happening in sport betting this time is now making the game to be very boring at the same time annoying, even most of the referees is making it look obvious.
How is rigging of match been obvious, at least you would have mention only one means why rigging of gambling is becoming obvious...It's obvious that gambling is a game of luck, And whatever you predict in gambling is what you will get in return,  even aa we think that matches can be manipulated, Are we not aware that if referee is one sided in a match, it will make the referee to go on suspension

So, many matches can't be compromised, unless it's a few players of a team can decide not to perform usually, the way they performed...so rigging of matches is not assured.

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Nwada001
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April 29, 2026, 09:52:51 PM
 #100

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.
I have a friend who has decided to only be betting on offside, number of cards, and corner kicks; anything that has to do with winning, he said he's off for the main time because of how he got disappointed on most of the games he believed the result to have been fixed based on the players' performance and their strength not matching what they are usually known for.

 
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