Analysis based on stats might be useless

[Callido]

I have no idea of which league you have this suspicion on, but for the leagues I am well familiar with (champions league, England leagues.., la liga) this is not likely, because from the performance and stats of teams, the results realised are actually deserving

Nevertheless it might be a different case in other leagues, but that I am not sure about that as well, because what is the point of the entertainment if they have a scripted result already? I don't know how true their is or perhaps your surprised losses might just be a coincidence of the disappointment of a big team

[SOKO-DEKE]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

It is possible that there are some leagues where certain games are rigged. However, what I believe is that this does not apply to the big leagues, because I don’t think something like that can happen there. Those major leagues would not want to damage the value and reputation of their competitions.But we should understand that some matches may look rigged based on the results, when in fact they are not. That is just football. As long as human beings are playing, mistakes will definitely happen, and nobody is above making mistakes.So, we shouldn’t be convinced that surprising results automatically mean matches are rigged. The only reason I sometimes think it’s possible is because I once saw news about some officiating issues linked to betting in a Turkish league. Even then, it was not in the top league but in a lower division.No matter how good someone is at analysis, luck is always needed to win in gambling

[AmoreJaz]

Yes this rigging that is happening in sport betting this time is now making the game to be very boring at the same time annoying, even most of the referees is making it look obvious.

How is rigging of match been obvious, at least you would have mention only one means why rigging of gambling is becoming obvious...It's obvious that gambling is a game of luck, And whatever you predict in gambling is what you will get in return,  even aa we think that matches can be manipulated, Are we not aware that if referee is one sided in a match, it will make the referee to go on suspension

So, many matches can't be compromised, unless it's a few players of a team can decide not to perform usually, the way they performed...so rigging of matches is not assured.

If he knows the sports very well, the athletes and all, he might have seen some unusual movements that were not seen before. Because if you are a long time fan of certain sports, you will notice some altered actions or different approach in the game. So if you happen to spot such, then, don't bet. I believe, that's the only way you can do to avoid the rigged game, if it is really rigged.

Because going to the legal route - like suing the athletes or the team or the league won't be the smartest thing to do. Because if you are only betting small and go to this option, I would say, you will only put yourself into too much stress without the assurance that you will get what you want. So the easiest thing to do is not bet or pull off your bet if the bookie allow you to. Because you can't do much if the game is indeed "rigged."

[rachael9385]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

We cannot always win when we make use of statistical analysis, even though they can significantly increase our chances of winning there are lots of things that can go wrong im a match. if you bet on the favorite team to win the underdogs and stats shows that they are supposed to they might end up losing opportunities and playing the way they are supposed to. Anything can happen in football.

[HONDACD125]

We cannot always win when we make use of statistical analysis, even though they can significantly increase our chances of winning there are lots of things that can go wrong im a match. if you bet on the favorite team to win the underdogs and stats shows that they are supposed to they might end up losing opportunities and playing the way they are supposed to. Anything can happen in football.

That is actually a bit different than what OP is trying to say, but you make a point. Even though we know that sports betting is all about having enough knowledge about the sports we are gambling on, which means we should have all statistical information by following each game closely and knowing which side is playing well and which isn't, we should even have information about what's happening with players, whether there are important transfers, buys, and whatnot, because all these things matter when it comes to making a prediction about a game since small details mostly matter the most. However, there is no doubt that you can't always win, but having up to date stats and information can help you significantly.

When it comes to fixing, it cannot be done in every single match unless it's a league or a tournament that is played locally somewhere and every single match if fixed, and I don't think any sportsbook would allow their gamblers to make bets on such leagues or tournaments that don't have enough recognition, and leagues that are good and have good reputation, you won't see a lot of fixing, and even if it happens, it cannot happen very often.

[Akbarkoe]

The possibility of match fixing or manipulation is possible, but it's highly unlikely in major leagues. However, that doesn't mean we should turn a blind eye to it; it could be due to our own ignorance.
Sometimes, statistics and other data used as analysis sources for drawing conclusions are useless if something different happens on the field. A team's luck can be exploited, such as a penalty kick, a free kick, or even a corner kick that can result in a goal, all of which cannot be calculated based on data.

[kawetsriyanto]

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Of course, sports betting can't be through analysis only. Even if there is no manipulation in the match, the result can be unexpected due to luck factor. I have been following football matches for many years (since I was kid), the result of the match is quite often unpredictable because of few factors. The luck factor is one of them. So analyzing the stats, players' current performance, and many other things never guarantee the result of the match. But we must do it, it sometimes can increase the chance of winning the bets.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

This also can't determine the result of the match. Sometimes, the result of the match can be as predicted. So, we can say it is a trap because it can be true sometimes.

[Miles2006]

I might just avoid the league knowing fully well the results are rigged, this kind of mindset might as well discourage any form of thorough thinking as mentioned analysis. At the end of the day it’s either you get a win or lose which makes it even more complicated after taking much time to read and analyze games, well nothing is guarantee either an already set game that just needs bettor to play while the score is ready, this doesn’t sound right still I can’t argue the fact because a proper analysis still gets a win though not all the time.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

"if you see something, say something" is a common slogan in my community security outfit where I live, there is absolutely no reason to hold good information in the name of not trying to offend fans except if you information is not credible, this forum is a public place for discussions, for sharing of personal thoughts and opinions, if you share your opinion about a league, no one will attack you here since this place is not X or Facebook where you will say you are afraid of losing followers or subscribers who might or may not be pleased with what you said.

Speaking about games being rigged, I think this is rare to see when it comes to top leagues, rigging of games are more common in small local league and so on.
But again, there are some games where past events does not determine the outcome of the future at all, and in this regards, analysis on past events is usually useless because using such as a decision maker will or may simply lead to loses.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Of course, statistics are mostly useless in sports betting, and it's easy to see why. All statistics are already factored into the bookmaker's odds. Therefore, knowledge of publicly available statistics offers no advantage to a bettor aiming to win. In other words, publicly available statistics don't give a bettor an advantage over other players. Only the following can provide an advantage:
1. You collect your own statistics that, for some reason, the bookmaker doesn't collect. Perhaps this is a parameter that's overlooked, difficult to collect, requires insider access, or is unbelievable.
2. You collect publicly available statistics but process them in your own proprietary way based on your own theory. As a result, you obtain results that the bookmaker can't, and this can be your advantage.
3. Something in between 1 and 2.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

It's not that it's useless; it's just that your analysis is up against the bookmaker's analysis, which, moreover, has the freedom to set the odds—and does so in a way that ensures a profit in the long run. 

Of course, sports betting can't be through analysis only. Even if there is no manipulation in the match, the result can be unexpected due to luck factor. I have been following football matches for many years (since I was kid), the result of the match is quite often unpredictable because of few factors. The luck factor is one of them. So analyzing the stats, players' current performance, and many other things never guarantee the result of the match. But we must do it, it sometimes can increase the chance of winning the bets.

That doesn't matter; statistical analysis also takes that degree of unpredictability into account. Just because things happen from time to time that you can't foresee doesn't mean you can't perform a statistical analysis and adjust the odds based on it. I’m talking about how the bookmakers do it. If Real Madrid is playing against Levante in the Spanish league, it’s clear that Madrid is the favorite. The fact that something unexpected might happen once in a blue moon doesn’t change the fact that if the bookie gives you a very small payout if you bet on Madrid and a big one if you bet on Levante, that’s the best way for them to make money.

[Son Of Blockchain (SOB)]

Yes this rigging that is happening in sport betting this time is now making the game to be very boring at the same time annoying, even most of the referees is making it look obvious.

How is rigging of match been obvious, at least you would have mention only one means why rigging of gambling is becoming obvious...It's obvious that gambling is a game of luck, And whatever you predict in gambling is what you will get in return,  even aa we think that matches can be manipulated, Are we not aware that if referee is one sided in a match, it will make the referee to go on suspension

So, many matches can't be compromised, unless it's a few players of a team can decide not to perform usually, the way they performed...so rigging of matches is not assured.

Match rigging is real although you're right that players and officials pay for the act when they're caught which is going on suspicions and bans but it's not very rampant in big leagues since they're aware that the majority watch the matches in those league and are very observant to know when something doesn't add up.
 While it's not very obvious in major league, it's mostly done in local leagues and from my research I learnt that it's carried out by "syndicated of organised crime". You can see what happened in the AFCON finals that's a clear example of match rigging but it backfired cause Senegal played smart even though they broke the rules of leaving the pitch out of annoyance to make the officials retrace their intensions. another instance of match rigging is the recent game between Bournemouth and Manchester United go rewatch it an see for yourself.

[Dunamisx]

We may make our analysis and be right about it due to the statistical information gathered, however, sometimes, things don't work out like that, it may take a while for us to get things right back de on the statistics information gathered as well, that is why gambling is always a mixed reaction and expectations, we can't also rely fully on the stats, just to play safe.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

We may make our analysis and be right about it due to the statistical information gathered, however, sometimes, things don't work out like that, it may take a while for us to get things right back de on the statistics information gathered as well, that is why gambling is always a mixed reaction and expectations, we can't also rely fully on the stats, just to play safe.

Luck, still goes down on luck itself. Even in sports betting, sometimes you need this in order to win. So even if you have all the numbers gathered and you analyzed it to the tee, there could still be one factor that we don't have total control, which is luck itself.

That's why it's hard to win and there are no guarantees in gambling. Because there are certain factors that might influence the result and it's beyond numbers and statistics. Also, there is the risk involved.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Yes this rigging that is happening in sport betting this time is now making the game to be very boring at the same time annoying, even most of the referees is making it look obvious. And sure the more we are advancing in technology that's the more corruption is also increasing, truly if not because of this rig that has been happening in sport betting I think people would have been making more winnings even though it's a game of luck because I know how many times i would have won a huge amount of money but at the end that team I have more confident in will be the one to ruin the whole game, and if you watch it you  will see that the match is already fixed.

Yes, things can get that boring. Besides, I'll say this: the only sport where statistics are almost never wrong is boxing. Wow, things are pretty good when I see those stats. But I don't know much about other sports, except that it doesn't work in soccer. Soccer is so unpredictable now that even the craziest bets can happen.

Also, soccer has changed a lot because VAR and referees have become such prominent figures, and that has a huge impact.

[Peanutswar]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

We cannot remove this kind of thing from the world of sports. We know that these are one of the largest well known entertainment in the world and they wanted to increase the number of more games and also giving a points to other players some of them are already secured with the upper bracket reason choking and throwing the game but still its just base on our observation and we arent have a proof unless release by the game officials so if you think its not into your pride as a sports bettor you might shift other games or else try to look other matches which has a high restriction of rules.

[bitcoindusts]

Yes this rigging that is happening in sport betting this time is now making the game to be very boring at the same time annoying, even most of the referees is making it look obvious. And sure the more we are advancing in technology that's the more corruption is also increasing, truly if not because of this rig that has been happening in sport betting I think people would have been making more winnings even though it's a game of luck because I know how many times i would have won a huge amount of money but at the end that team I have more confident in will be the one to ruin the whole game, and if you watch it you  will see that the match is already fixed.

Yes, things can get that boring. Besides, I'll say this: the only sport where statistics are almost never wrong is boxing.

Lol boxing?  There are lots of matches where judges decision are often in conflict with the statistics.  Like some of the matches of Floyd Mayweather Jr.  where the opponent is clearly the one should won the fight but instead it was rewarded to Mayweather Jr.  There are also matches in olympics and other amateur tournament where decisions highly favored the hosting country even if the statistics of the match said otherwise.

I believe all kind of sports that has a third party calling the shots and decision like referee, judges or umpires often gives biased results.

[YellowSwap]

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone.

That's true, but it's not because a few games in minor leagues might be rigged; it's because an individual simply can't match the analytical capabilities of bookmakers and casinos. They have far more money to invest in statistical analysis tools—and, these days, AI. It's not impossible, but it's difficult for an individual to find an edge.

This analysis tools are the ones that will play the games on the field, football for example, there were times where even the best team are supposed to win, many people bet on them and they still lose.

Analysis on games that you won't carry out yourself, using your own energy, betting on such things are stupid to me, gamblers should be in balance mode, that even after every analysis they can still lose.

There is no amount of best tools you have, you can't read the outcome a game, manipulation is the whole team agreeing to lose the game for the other team to win, how will analysis help in this situation.

[Africolo]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

Without mentioning the league that you have perceived that it's been rigged people won't really believe in what you're saying though I have had an experience that justifies that what you are saying might be true and someone told me few years back that the book markers do fixed games in their favor and from the look of things too casinos and other sports betting platforms has been built to benefit the owners than the gamblers.

If the games are being rigged even before they start then the analysis that we do is totally useless so I agree with you on your assertions , sports betting is so unpredictable and you never can tell the outcome of games even after much analysis that is being done, but as for match rigging I think it's actually real from the stories heard from gamblers.

[Muba20]

I have no idea of which league you have this suspicion on, but for the leagues I am well familiar with (champions league, England leagues.., la liga) this is not likely, because from the performance and stats of teams, the results realised are actually deserving

Nevertheless it might be a different case in other leagues, but that I am not sure about that as well, because what is the point of the entertainment if they have a scripted result already? I don't know how true their is or perhaps your surprised losses might just be a coincidence of the disappointment of a big team

There is no evidence that the outcome of any match is predetermined. It is not the case and it cannot be guaranteed 100%. Since everything in gambling is uncertain, there is always uncertainty in it. It seems normal for unexpected events to occur in some bets, sometimes the results of some matches are obtained in a way that no one could have imagined. That is why there is curiosity about those matches. However, some may question that if the teams that are champions or first in the leagues how much they get as winning money but have to spend a lot more on players than how much money is paid, then who will cover that cost? Of course, there is income for the clubs, but there are some things that cannot be kept in front of everyone.