Analysis based on stats might be useless

[Fredomago]

maybe the value is on the other side.

That matter still also relies on the possibility of happening. We know in gambling, even though we have statistics, the result could also be that you win, or it could also be that you lose. The more seriously we assess a bet, the more I actually cannot enjoy how sports betting really is. Betting on a favorite team and enjoying the match, I think, is more comfortable than constantly being troubled with analysis.

With that perception, you are allowing yourself to enjoy and be entertained as if the essence of your gambling activity is for that sole purpose, though there are gamblers who seriously taking it as once the option to earn, then that's adds up pressure since the intension is to make money, and then again it's more on how the gambler takes this activity either to earn or to have some fun.

[Marykeller]

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

A gambler who is looking out for all this before they can place a bet, will have to wait for a long time before they can arrive at where the line is in favor for them to bet. Because where in question will they get to find out the result of all these asked questions stated. As we already have millions of people gambling on different matches per day or weekly, hoping that their forecast in each game would come true as predicted.

[kawetsriyanto]

That doesn't matter; statistical analysis also takes that degree of unpredictability into account. Just because things happen from time to time that you can't foresee doesn't mean you can't perform a statistical analysis and adjust the odds based on it. I’m talking about how the bookmakers do it. If Real Madrid is playing against Levante in the Spanish league, it’s clear that Madrid is the favorite. The fact that something unexpected might happen once in a blue moon doesn’t change the fact that if the bookie gives you a very small payout if you bet on Madrid and a big one if you bet on Levante, that’s the best way for them to make money.

Yep, we can do any analysis to improve the chance of the wins. As you said for the match Real Madrid vs Levante, Real Madrid must be the favorite one. They have more quality players and they are in a different level. Whatever analysis we do, it is clear that Real Madrid must be more recommended to choose to win the match. However, sometimes the match can end up with unpredictable result because red card or wrong strategy used by coach. So, this is something that we can't analyze, even the bookmakers also can't predict this. But I can agree that they know better than us since they run the business. 

[Onyeeze]

Analysis based on stats is not necessarily useless most time, we should understand that sometimes games changes there previous strength and current matches may not be the same , that is why they always say gambling is just luck , sometimes using stats can help and sometimes it may not , so you can’t expect winning always from using stats, so don’t fully depend on it because it’s never guaranteed, that is gambling for you , most times they say the lowest odd is more likely to win , I know how many times I played with the lower odd but end up losing even one goal I won’t see , so I feel if luck is on your side you may likely win and if not so , you may also likely lose , gambling is not for the faint hearted.

You can never be confirm of winning sports betting, but by using research and strategy, you can sometimes protect yourself from big losses and sometimes win. Winning depends a lot on your luck and research, but you must be aware of the losses because the chances of winning through gambling are very limited, but the chances of losing is high. So gamble only what you can afford to lose, do not gamble with the mentality of making a quick profit, as this increases the amount of losses and increases the chances of addiction.

You see that mentality of making quick money is what has led many to addiction, researches and analysis is just a process to help one be in the right track but that does not necessarily mean it guarantees winnings , as long as gambling is concerned, winning is just based on luck , no mater how good one is at prediction, I keep telling people believing on your strength alone can’t bring the winning but only gives chances of getting close or possibly winning if one is lucky enough.

sometimes what makes some people to be addicted in gambling is because of greediness and they cannot depart from it, but someone who has a strategies in gambling and does not depend in gambling to survive can never be addicted, why people who depend on gambling to survive there are the one that always been addicted in gambling, so for me what I understand is that if you don't want to be addicted in gambling you have to make out a budget for gambling so that you will not spend more than what you want to spend in gambling because once you are spending more than what you budgeted to spending gambling, and you lose it will make you to be addicted in gambling

[Sandra_hakeem]

Not more like manipulation in the game so to speak, stats don't determine the results at all in many cases. I've seen a premier League team fought tooth and nail to make sure the top position holder losses some points to them, then get overturn. They stand to gain nothing since that may not help in their lower position.

Another strong factor is the weather condition. Some others may be unexpected occurrences like a severe injury of 1 or 2 keys players. Don't forget that all these vary with the type of games you're even referring to and the division of the league from which it is.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Not more like manipulation in the game so to speak, stats don't determine the results at all in many cases. I've seen a premier League team fought tooth and nail to make sure the top position holder losses some points to them, then get overturn. They stand to gain nothing since that may not help in their lower position.

Another strong factor is the weather condition. Some others may be unexpected occurrences like a severe injury of 1 or 2 keys players. Don't forget that all these vary with the type of games you're even referring to and the division of the league from which it is.

Yeah, you are absolutely correct, there are usually many unforseen circumstances that one can't possibly predict that would happen in the course of the match which could impact the overall out come of the game and also affect the bets of the gamblers.

And one notable of such things is player(s) getting into serious injuries and some other like disruption in the field for whatever reason; while the match is still on, all this and perhaps some more we might have forget to mention are possible circumstances that analysis can't capture and put into consideration, and this is why even though sports betting is a knowledge based game, it's still has a significant part of it that is luck based, where the bettor even after carrying out a thorough analysis and research, will still depend on luck to win the bet.

[uneng]

Statistics and analysis are pointless on long run, because we are always talking about three potential outcomes for each match. You don't have only two variables like team A wins and team B wins. You have also the outcome where the match may end in a draw.

The draw is the green zero number of the roulette game. The draw is the edge the house has against you. And you can't overcome it the more you play.

Analysis would be determining if there were only two variables for each match. Then we could consider it a game changer. However, it's not the case for real.

[junder]

Stats are just data to gather information about teams playing, but the thing there is that, you can not depend on data alone to make you gambling decisions because doing so can lead to your loses in fast since matches don't go along the expectations of many, so for that statistics and analysis can fail infact everything else can fail you as a gambler that is why you should give luck a place whenever you are gambling because that the only thing that give you the winnings, and to avoid over stepping your boundaries you should always trust less in your analysis, expertise or stats.

True what you say, with statistics it is only a tool or object that can be used to collect data with the aim of making accurate predictions, but however in any match anything can happen especially if with big matches there are usually irregularities that occur that may not be accepted by the disadvantaged party because of the match that has been arranged. So in the end it is still luck that determines whether we will win or not.

[Olatundespo]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

The strategy you have recommended in your last paragraph is a kind of copy gambling. You will not find your own identity in this betting because you are betting by following other gamblers so there is no need to analysis the teams and players. If you bet regularly with this strategy you will be dependent on others and your experience will reach zero.

Some matches in the tournament may seem fixed but you are not sure. Analysis the teams and look at their statistics and bet on the team that you are inspired to bet on. If you lose it is an experience for you and if you win it is also an experience and your confidence will increase. You should refrain from betting on the advice of others or by imitating them. At least through your own research and analysis, you will have more fun even if you do not win and if you win by imitating others, you will have no achievement in it.

[ZeroVinsonN]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

The truth is that you can't mention any specific league because you really have no way of proving that they are rigging their games, the idea that most games are fixed have been around forever usually because of certain occurrences in sports that seem too old and to be sincere the chances that these games are fixed are there, but there really is no way to be able to prove it, we can speculate but with nothing solid it's just not going to hold. If you think any league is compromised then just stop gambling there, there are other leagues out there, hopefully they are not all rigged.

[Suleiman the Magnificent]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

Whenever I see anything related to stats, the same wonderful quote comes to mind every time: 'Stats are like a mini skirt; they reveal a lot but hide what's most important.' Yes, stats matter but expecting everything to unfold in line with them at the end of the day is a bit naive, I'd say. Especially in recent years, since the betting industry has taken sports hostage, making predictions based on stats has become much more difficult. Because if everything went according to the stats, betting companies would be shutting their doors in no time.

[Outhue]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

When losses piles up is when every games feel rigged, if everyone is a happy gambler no one will be looking for an excuse to feel right about the money they wasted away hoping to get rich by gambling, it is always the fault of gambling rigs or sports games that are rigged, are you saying that if a sport game is rigged there is not going to be a single winner? Think about this very well, if Chelsea and Arsenal comes together for a match and the game is already rigged, every gamblers won't bet on Chelsea team, some will bet on Arsenal, so if the rigged was that Chelsea must win and someone Arsenal win then gamblers that bet on Arsenal will go home smiling.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Lol boxing?  There are lots of matches where judges decision are often in conflict with the statistics.  Like some of the matches of Floyd Mayweather Jr.  where the opponent is clearly the one should won the fight but instead it was rewarded to Mayweather Jr.  There are also matches in olympics and other amateur tournament where decisions highly favored the hosting country even if the statistics of the match said otherwise.

I believe all kind of sports that has a third party calling the shots and decision like referee, judges or umpires often gives biased results.

Well, I can't believe that the controversy surrounding decisions has even reached boxing. I've witnessed how blatantly they can be manipulated, but even so, I trust those statistics more than those of other sports, at least in my field, which is combat sports and football. These controversial fights make you think about many things, but I know that a boxer wins based on the training he puts in; if his is harder than the other's, that's the one who will win.

[GiftedMAN]

Whenever I see anything related to stats, the same wonderful quote comes to mind every time: 'Stats are like a mini skirt; they reveal a lot but hide what's most important.' Yes, stats matter but expecting everything to unfold in line with them at the end of the day is a bit naive, I'd say. Especially in recent years, since the betting industry has taken sports hostage, making predictions based on stats has become much more difficult. Because if everything went according to the stats, betting companies would be shutting their doors in no time.

I'll definitely keep that quote in mind, even though it sounds like the author of the quote is a perv
But this is actually very accurate, most people rely too much on the stats that they end up missing the real picture. stats don't give you the main results, but it only gives you some clues and let you figure the real thing out for yourself. more like a compass that guides you towards a direction, but the destination you seek is completely up to you to figure out.

[Alpha Marine]

I don't agree with this. I know there are rigged or fixed games, but they are not rampant, and they are not at the top level. This is for football, which I follow a lot, at least.
It's normal for a game not to go the way you predicted or expected; that is exactly what makes the sports interesting. If team every match always go as expected then whats the fun in that?

Analysis and stats play a role, but you need to be lucky to win bets. If it was by analsis alone then a lot of people would be profitable from sports betting. In football, it's very difficult to fix a game, especially inthe top leagues where so many eyes are watch including regulatory bodies. There are things that will happen and they will loo scripted, but they are not. It's just how sports is.

[Muba20]

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

A gambler who is looking out for all this before they can place a bet, will have to wait for a long time before they can arrive at where the line is in favor for them to bet. Because where in question will they get to find out the result of all these asked questions stated. As we already have millions of people gambling on different matches per day or weekly, hoping that their forecast in each game would come true as predicted.

In placing bets, the bettor must have knowledge of various things. Just as there is no certainty if a bet can be placed by judging the line movement, it is also unreasonable to expect that everything will be perfect. Before placing a bet, the gambler must consider both sides and must reach a conclusion there, otherwise the expected result of the bet is not more likely to happen. If someone places a bet, then he has to place the bet with risk. After mastering the strategies, a conclusion has to be reached. Every bet is risky, which is why the gambler has to balance everything.

[alastantiger]

A gambler who is looking out for all this before they can place a bet, will have to wait for a long time before they can arrive at where the line is in favor for them to bet. Because where in question will they get to find out the result of all these asked questions stated. As we already have millions of people gambling on different matches per day or weekly, hoping that their forecast in each game would come true as predicted.

Strategizing has it's benefit and statistics helps a lot when gambling on sport games. There are games that we'll have to depend on stats because this help us to have an idea of how the game is likely going to play out. For an example Arsenal has always defeated Chelsea for over 4 years now and this helps us to be able to predict that Arsenal is going to win Chelsea or they are going to draw if they get to play each other but without having this statistics then we won't be able to know that is how the game is going to end despite the level of form that both teams are on. Stats are a good way to have an edge when playing any sport game and it does not matter the league that you are betting on because stats does a lot in all leagues.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Analysis and stats play a role, but you need to be lucky to win bets. If it was by analsis alone then a lot of people would be profitable from sports betting. In football, it's very difficult to fix a game, especially inthe top leagues where so many eyes are watch including regulatory bodies. There are things that will happen and they will loo scripted, but they are not. It's just how sports is.

You are right, mare, analysis is not the only thing that is required for someone to experience long term success in sports betting, luck is also required before long success can be achieved. While a bettors is learning how to do analysis properly, they need to also pray for luck to always favour them because if luck is absent, they can even lose matches that is supposed to give them a win. Match fixing is more common in small leagues, if someone is scared of that, they should only be betting on top leagues.

[kawetsriyanto]

In placing bets, the bettor must have knowledge of various things.

What various things do you refer to? As far as I know, people commonly only analyze the stats or history of the match results of the teams or players. Also, they will take a look of the current condition of the teams/players. So, it actually requires few information only.

Just as there is no certainty if a bet can be placed by judging the line movement, it is also unreasonable to expect that everything will be perfect.

What line movement do mean? TBH, I don't get your point.

Before placing a bet, the gambler must consider both sides and must reach a conclusion there, otherwise the expected result of the bet is not more likely to happen.

Analyzing both sides (players/teams) is common thing in sports betting. However, this never guarantees the result. Even if we have done it in a correct way, the result of the match still can be unexpected

After mastering the strategies, a conclusion has to be reached.

I don't think there are certain strategies to be mastered in betting. Even we use certain strategies, it can't guarantee for the win in betting. We must admit that there is a luck factor in betting as well. Just bet as common people do!

[Achalugo BTC]

In placing bets, the bettor must have knowledge of various things. Just as there is no certainty if a bet can be placed by judging the line movement, it is also unreasonable to expect that everything will be perfect. Before placing a bet, the gambler must consider both sides and must reach a conclusion there, otherwise the expected result of the bet is not more likely to happen. If someone places a bet, then he has to place the bet with risk. After mastering the strategies, a conclusion has to be reached. Every bet is risky, which is why the gambler has to balance everything.

In addition to this, they should be ready and prepared their minds, emotions and everything in them from gambling because if even though you might analysis the game very well, you can't still tell the end result and that  is what makes it a gambling, as one can only try their luck but can't control the luck. So players are to ensure they stay grounded in the act of being responsible in gambling, as it pays to be a responsible gambler.