Analysis based on stats might be useless

[Orpichukwu]

A gambler who is looking out for all this before they can place a bet, will have to wait for a long time before they can arrive at where the line is in favor for them to bet. Because where in question will they get to find out the result of all these asked questions stated. As we already have millions of people gambling on different matches per day or weekly, hoping that their forecast in each game would come true as predicted.

In respect to those gamblers who are looking out on where the majority are betting, they will eventually get their hands on such data. There are platforms which are made for gathering such information. There are even some bookies which you can visit, and you will be able to see how many numbers or bets have been placed on a particular option, and you can know where the crowd is betting on exactly. As for lineups and other formations, such bettors bet on live matches.

[GiftedMAN]

When losses piles up is when every games feel rigged, if everyone is a happy gambler no one will be looking for an excuse to feel right about the money they wasted away hoping to get rich by gambling, it is always the fault of gambling rigs or sports games that are rigged, are you saying that if a sport game is rigged there is not going to be a single winner? Think about this very well, if Chelsea and Arsenal comes together for a match and the game is already rigged, every gamblers won't bet on Chelsea team, some will bet on Arsenal, so if the rigged was that Chelsea must win and someone Arsenal win then gamblers that bet on Arsenal will go home smiling.

That is why its a called gambling and that’s why gamblers are told and advised to gamble with what they can afford to lose and its not a good thing for one to said that gambling is rigged just because it doesn't fall in your way and having the knowledge or the mindset that gambling is for money making its totally dangerous, as it can make them to gamble recklessly and even lead to destruction. And if you feel that chasing losses is fine by you, then go for it and be happy in it.

[rachael9385]

I don't agree with this. I know there are rigged or fixed games, but they are not rampant, and they are not at the top level. This is for football, which I follow a lot, at least.
It's normal for a game not to go the way you predicted or expected; that is exactly what makes the sports interesting. If team every match always go as expected then whats the fun in that?

Analysis and stats play a role, but you need to be lucky to win bets. If it was by analsis alone then a lot of people would be profitable from sports betting. In football, it's very difficult to fix a game, especially inthe top leagues where so many eyes are watch including regulatory bodies. There are things that will happen and they will loo scripted, but they are not. It's just how sports is.

A lot of bettors conclude that a game is fixed when it doesn't go according to how they predicted it but like you said these type of games are hard to come by because they are carried mostly in leagues that are not prominent. How a game plays out isn't always about stats and analysis, the players have a huge role to play. You can do your best to predict a game but the team you placed a bet on might end up losing a lot chances.

[Accardo]

A lot of bettors conclude that a game is fixed when it doesn't go according to how they predicted it but like you said these type of games are hard to come by because they are carried mostly in leagues that are not prominent. How a game plays out isn't always about stats and analysis, the players have a huge role to play. You can do your best to predict a game but the team you placed a bet on might end up losing a lot chances.

Every game that involves two teams consists of mistakes, near misses, and total inconsistency. These factors drops down the success rate of both sides, only the strong end up winning, with few lines of strategical play, and strength. Gamblers do think of fixed game, which is considerable, you never can tell what happens behind the scene, but it's not rampant or that obvious, gambler's also should acknowledge their inability to detect what actually happens in a game, that's why it's termed 'prediction'.

[AmoreJaz]

When losses piles up is when every games feel rigged, if everyone is a happy gambler no one will be looking for an excuse to feel right about the money they wasted away hoping to get rich by gambling, it is always the fault of gambling rigs or sports games that are rigged, are you saying that if a sport game is rigged there is not going to be a single winner? Think about this very well, if Chelsea and Arsenal comes together for a match and the game is already rigged, every gamblers won't bet on Chelsea team, some will bet on Arsenal, so if the rigged was that Chelsea must win and someone Arsenal win then gamblers that bet on Arsenal will go home smiling.

That is why its a called gambling and that’s why gamblers are told and advised to gamble with what they can afford to lose and its not a good thing for one to said that gambling is rigged just because it doesn't fall in your way and having the knowledge or the mindset that gambling is for money making its totally dangerous, as it can make them to gamble recklessly and even lead to destruction. And if you feel that chasing losses is fine by you, then go for it and be happy in it.

And if you really feel that the game is rigged, then, pull off your bet or cash out early. Or better yet, don't bet, plain and simple. Because you can't do anything much about it. If you sue those teams, nothing will happen. You will incur financial stress and more. So don't bet when you spot that the game is rigged.

One can always use the stats and the prediction sites, but the actual happening inside the arena might produce different results, different from what you predicted. That's why you call it a game. Because no one has the total control of the game, we are all just speculating and trying to bet to get some profits out of it.

[Fredomago]

When losses piles up is when every games feel rigged, if everyone is a happy gambler no one will be looking for an excuse to feel right about the money they wasted away hoping to get rich by gambling, it is always the fault of gambling rigs or sports games that are rigged, are you saying that if a sport game is rigged there is not going to be a single winner? Think about this very well, if Chelsea and Arsenal comes together for a match and the game is already rigged, every gamblers won't bet on Chelsea team, some will bet on Arsenal, so if the rigged was that Chelsea must win and someone Arsenal win then gamblers that bet on Arsenal will go home smiling.

That is why its a called gambling and that’s why gamblers are told and advised to gamble with what they can afford to lose and its not a good thing for one to said that gambling is rigged just because it doesn't fall in your way and having the knowledge or the mindset that gambling is for money making its totally dangerous, as it can make them to gamble recklessly and even lead to destruction. And if you feel that chasing losses is fine by you, then go for it and be happy in it.

And if you really feel that the game is rigged, then, pull off your bet or cash out early. Or better yet, don't bet, plain and simple. Because you can't do anything much about it. If you sue those teams, nothing will happen. You will incur financial stress and more. So don't bet when you spot that the game is rigged.

As simple as that, though gamblers will only cry out after the game the reason why they can't do anything but to voice out their observation regarding to a manipulation that happened, but in terms of any control there's nothing that a gambler can do, the reason why even how you deep you deal with your research and how good your analysis there's no way that it will guarantee your win, which should fall to use only the amount that you can afford to let go.

[Royal Cap]

In placing bets, the bettor must have knowledge of various things. Just as there is no certainty if a bet can be placed by judging the line movement, it is also unreasonable to expect that everything will be perfect. Before placing a bet, the gambler must consider both sides and must reach a conclusion there, otherwise the expected result of the bet is not more likely to happen. If someone places a bet, then he has to place the bet with risk. After mastering the strategies, a conclusion has to be reached. Every bet is risky, which is why the gambler has to balance everything.

But one thing many people miss is that not betting is also a decision, If everything is analyzed and there is no clear edge, then skipping is often better than betting. Many people think that they have to play something every day and this is where the mistakes start. So I think the real thing is to stick to your limits. Suppose someone decides in advance how much they will lose then even if a bad series comes, they don't lose everything, In the end the game is unpredictable, so it is more important to keep control on your side.

[Bitcoin.com97]

Analysis based on stats is not necessarily useless most time, we should understand that sometimes games changes there previous strength and current matches may not be the same , that is why they always say gambling is just luck , sometimes using stats can help and sometimes it may not , so you can’t expect winning always from using stats, so don’t fully depend on it because it’s never guaranteed, that is gambling for you , most times they say the lowest odd is more likely to win , I know how many times I played with the lower odd but end up losing even one goal I won’t see , so I feel if luck is on your side you may likely win and if not so , you may also likely lose , gambling is not for the faint hearted.

You can never be confirm of winning sports betting, but by using research and strategy, you can sometimes protect yourself from big losses and sometimes win. Winning depends a lot on your luck and research, but you must be aware of the losses because the chances of winning through gambling are very limited, but the chances of losing is high. So gamble only what you can afford to lose, do not gamble with the mentality of making a quick profit, as this increases the amount of losses and increases the chances of addiction.

You see that mentality of making quick money is what has led many to addiction, researches and analysis is just a process to help one be in the right track but that does not necessarily mean it guarantees winnings , as long as gambling is concerned, winning is just based on luck , no mater how good one is at prediction, I keep telling people believing on your strength alone can’t bring the winning but only gives chances of getting close or possibly winning if one is lucky enough.

sometimes what makes some people to be addicted in gambling is because of greediness and they cannot depart from it, but someone who has a strategies in gambling and does not depend in gambling to survive can never be addicted, why people who depend on gambling to survive there are the one that always been addicted in gambling, so for me what I understand is that if you don't want to be addicted in gambling you have to make out a budget for gambling so that you will not spend more than what you want to spend in gambling because once you are spending more than what you budgeted to spending gambling, and you lose it will make you to be addicted in gambling

This is also a valid e reason , many get addicted just because they want to make living through gambling, they gamble for profit and if it’s not coming they began to go harder to fulfill their quest, that is where many lost it , because at that point they don’t set a bankroll , no budget again , always gambling without limits again , then end up spending so much before they know it , gambling addiction start from mindset and expectations, having a target which is good to an extent but fully depending on it will only cost you so much than you expected.

[hedgeh0g]

This can certainly happen, because past statistics never guarantee the same in the future. But at the same time, I wouldn't say they can be completely ignored. Statistics do, after all, allow us to roughly understand trends and calculate a certain average, which can be used as a guide when betting. But many factors also change in the field—tactics, team lineups, and so on—which will certainly have an impact, and each bet should still be considered individually. Furthermore, in every match, random events can occur, such as a gust of wind or a player slipping, or perhaps a long-standing injury resurfaces, preventing them from playing at 100%.

[Slow death]

When I saw the part where it says that if most people are on one side, it's better to be on the other side, it made me laugh a lot.  Try betting on the underdog for a month to see what happens to your bankroll. 

Sports betting is all about analyzing data; there's no better way to achieve better results in sports betting, at least in my opinion. When two teams are going to play, everyone—analysts, TV commentators, sports journalists, bettors, and even the coaches of both teams—focuses on analyzing the data of each team: who will play, where the game will be, what the results of the last matches involving both teams were, and who the coaches and players were in those last matches. What were the results of both teams in the last 5 games they played against other opponents, and what would make both teams try harder? This data is very relevant. I don't see any other way to place sports bets without using this data and other data as well.

[junder]

This is also a valid e reason , many get addicted just because they want to make living through gambling, they gamble for profit and if it’s not coming they began to go harder to fulfill their quest, that is where many lost it , because at that point they don’t set a bankroll , no budget again , always gambling without limits again , then end up spending so much before they know it , gambling addiction start from mindset and expectations, having a target which is good to an extent but fully depending on it will only cost you so much than you expected.

This is reinforced by the fact that I myself saw many street vendors who filled their spare time waiting for their buyers by gambling, which of course they did because there was hope to get a win.
 And I agree that addiction occurs because of the mindset and expectations of gambling, which is actually the wrong way to look at gambling.

[Olatundespo]

When losses piles up is when every games feel rigged, if everyone is a happy gambler no one will be looking for an excuse to feel right about the money they wasted away hoping to get rich by gambling, it is always the fault of gambling rigs or sports games that are rigged, are you saying that if a sport game is rigged there is not going to be a single winner? Think about this very well, if Chelsea and Arsenal comes together for a match and the game is already rigged, every gamblers won't bet on Chelsea team, some will bet on Arsenal, so if the rigged was that Chelsea must win and someone Arsenal win then gamblers that bet on Arsenal will go home smiling.

That is why its a called gambling and that’s why gamblers are told and advised to gamble with what they can afford to lose and its not a good thing for one to said that gambling is rigged just because it doesn't fall in your way and having the knowledge or the mindset that gambling is for money making its totally dangerous, as it can make them to gamble recklessly and even lead to destruction. And if you feel that chasing losses is fine by you, then go for it and be happy in it.

It leads to more dangerous consequences for gamblers if they become desperate to get back the money they have lost. If you do not use your time wisely and show weakness in managing your funds during your financial stability period, you will definitely lose a lot. You will be psychologically weak in gambling because your experience will help you make good decisions but will not guarantee victory.

The financial strength of gamblers tempts them to gamble more. As long as they do not set a budget for gambling and strictly adhere to it, they will be at risk. Having the mental preparation to gamble to make money is not a weakness, but if you gamble without maintaining control, it is your psychological weakness.

[sompitonov]

This is reinforced by the fact that I myself saw many street vendors who filled their spare time waiting for their buyers by gambling, which of course they did because there was hope to get a win.
 And I agree that addiction occurs because of the mindset and expectations of gambling, which is actually the wrong way to look at gambling.

Players often imagine what they can win, and one of the reasons is that they simply rely on past statistics and place bets, thinking it will repeat itself. But the main point is that the games aren't like the past. Of course they are, but I mean there are still many unaccounted factors, as well as subtleties and randomness. Although I still bet, I've recently realized that it hasn't strayed too far from the casino, especially since bookmakers won't bet on bad odds at a loss because they need a constant cash flow from players and their money.

[lombok]

This is reinforced by the fact that I myself saw many street vendors who filled their spare time waiting for their buyers by gambling, which of course they did because there was hope to get a win.
 And I agree that addiction occurs because of the mindset and expectations of gambling, which is actually the wrong way to look at gambling.

Players often imagine what they can win, and one of the reasons is that they simply rely on past statistics and place bets, thinking it will repeat itself. But the main point is that the games aren't like the past. Of course they are, but I mean there are still many unaccounted factors, as well as subtleties and randomness. Although I still bet, I've recently realized that it hasn't strayed too far from the casino, especially since bookmakers won't bet on bad odds at a loss because they need a constant cash flow from players and their money.

Addiction is often brought about by a logical impossibility to work out probability, where the players might think that they can make judgments about the future based on past events only. However, all contemporary betting systems, add a little bit of yet potentially deadly uncertainty to those who do not critically think the risk is. It is only because it makes good sense to begin with trying to understand the following.

[Patikno]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

That is a different story, if the results are already controlled, so rendering analysis useless as the OP suggests. However, we can't confirm, or prove that matches are rigged.

Maybe, some (less well-known) domestic leagues still have the potential for rigging, and I am sure there are, but how could big (also well-known) leagues be rigged? Because, IMO, all eyes are on them, making it difficult to commit fraud there.

Personally, I still believe analyzing statistics is useful for increasing wins, and is more appropriate for big matches. Regarding reading line movements, I think it is difficult, because there is no certainty (and no data to read), even if there is data, it could be that the winning result isn't always on the other side, and what you mean is; the side, that not many other people bet on, right?

[Achalugo BTC]

Players often imagine what they can win, and one of the reasons is that they simply rely on past statistics and place bets, thinking it will repeat itself. But the main point is that the games aren't like the past. Of course they are, but I mean there are still many unaccounted factors, as well as subtleties and randomness. Although I still bet, I've recently realized that it hasn't strayed too far from the casino, especially since bookmakers won't bet on bad odds at a loss because they need a constant cash flow from players and their money.

Most at times, luck makes it to repeat itself again, whereby they might be thinking its just their past statistics that is helping them out and that might be not be true. But, its essential that even if one is relying on past stats, they should bet with a little fund for it, as they can't really tell if it will played out to be what they are expecting or not and understand that gambling does not constantly make cash flow and that is why they have to be extremely careful.

[bakasabo]

When I saw the part where it says that if most people are on one side, it's better to be on the other side, it made me laugh a lot.  Try betting on the underdog for a month to see what happens to your bankroll. 

Sports betting is all about analyzing data; there's no better way to achieve better results in sports betting, at least in my opinion. When two teams are going to play, everyone—analysts, TV commentators, sports journalists, bettors, and even the coaches of both teams—focuses on analyzing the data of each team: who will play, where the game will be, what the results of the last matches involving both teams were, and who the coaches and players were in those last matches. What were the results of both teams in the last 5 games they played against other opponents, and what would make both teams try harder? This data is very relevant. I don't see any other way to place sports bets without using this data and other data as well.

From coaches perspective, if they analyze every aspect of their opponent and build game tactics, how come they still lose? You can analyze everything but if your player or players dont have better skills or advantages, its no use to rely on analysis that much. Thanks to documentary, social media and the internet I can analyze every step Ronaldo does, but I still wont be able to outplay him in football. Shouldnt it means that proper analysis is maybe 1/3 of success, where rest 2/3 are luck and random? If making predictions were that easy, if I would be able to open last 5-10 or more games data, print it all that, lay it out making it look like a web with strings that lead to prediction outcomes, making sports predictions would be too easy.

[hedgeh0g]

From coaches perspective, if they analyze every aspect of their opponent and build game tactics, how come they still lose? You can analyze everything but if your player or players dont have better skills or advantages, its no use to rely on analysis that much. Thanks to documentary, social media and the internet I can analyze every step Ronaldo does, but I still wont be able to outplay him in football. Shouldnt it means that proper analysis is maybe 1/3 of success, where rest 2/3 are luck and random? If making predictions were that easy, if I would be able to open last 5-10 or more games data, print it all that, lay it out making it look like a web with strings that lead to prediction outcomes, making sports predictions would be too easy.

I agree with you that luck plays a much greater role than any statistics collected over years or even decades. Of course, statistics can help in some ways, but they won't do everything for us, even in the age of AI, because luck will play a major role. Personally, I think that maybe professionals can somehow make money by spotting other opportunities, but I don't see any at all yet. Luck is extremely important in betting, but I wouldn't say it has a complete influence, it's just quite significant.

[Synchronice]

With how things are going recently, I’m starting to believe that some games are really rigged. I won’t mention the specific league here, since I don’t want to offend the die hard fans.

But if my assessment is right, then sports betting may not be something we can beat through analysis alone. You can spend hours checking stats, injuries, and matchups, but if the result is already controlled, then all that analysis becomes useless.

Maybe the better thing to study is how the line moves, where most bettors are placing their money, and whether there is a trap. If most people are on one side, maybe the value is on the other side.

There is no way top leagues are rigged because they don't need it and also, if the information gets leaked, it will be extremely devastating for everyone. Why the hell do you need to rig a game when you have Messi in your team? Just for example.
You are also wrong when you say that analysis can't help you. Yes, it can help and that's how bookmakers create odds. Bookmakers have their own experts too who do the analysis and create odds but at the same time, they offer odds in a way that in the end, bookmaker is left with a profit because they don't give you 1:1 odd.

[dimonstration]

This is reinforced by the fact that I myself saw many street vendors who filled their spare time waiting for their buyers by gambling, which of course they did because there was hope to get a win.
 And I agree that addiction occurs because of the mindset and expectations of gambling, which is actually the wrong way to look at gambling.

Players often imagine what they can win, and one of the reasons is that they simply rely on past statistics and place bets, thinking it will repeat itself. But the main point is that the games aren't like the past. Of course they are, but I mean there are still many unaccounted factors, as well as subtleties and randomness. Although I still bet, I've recently realized that it hasn't strayed too far from the casino, especially since bookmakers won't bet on bad odds at a loss because they need a constant cash flow from players and their money.

Statistically wise, history repeats himself most of the time that’s why top team gain more win than lose because they are much stronger to other team while stats reflect that strength difference.

The only problem of most gambler usually dodge the high possibility of winning rather consider the odds value that’s why they tend to seek risky bet with higher payout than rely on stats.

I’m not suggesting to chase bet with lower odds but a pick that has a statistics backing it.