My main goal is not necessarily to accumulate a full 1 BTC. If I eventually achieve that within my lifetime, I would be very satisfied but it is not my only measure of success.
Also, if I have to wait until I am 65 before I can make use of the Bitcoin I’ve accumulated, it raises the question of how I am truly contributing to Bitcoin being used as a medium of exchange?
Yes, I plan to keep accumulating Bitcoin, but only within a realistic and sustainable budget that I have set aside. It’s important to recognize that Bitcoin’s price is not static. For example, $50 worth of Bitcoin 10 years ago is significantly different from what $50 can buy today. If we project that trend into the next 10 years, it becomes clear that accumulation timelines will vary significantly.
Therefore, your approach should evolve alongside your income, financial situation, and changing market conditions.
In my earlier response, I forgot to mention the projection that it is quite likely that less than 1 BTC will be enough to support a sustainable withdrawal rate of $80k per year starting in about late 2039 or early 2040... .You can see the projection, even though in
this older projection chart, it appears that it would be possible to sustainably withdraw $80k starting in mid-2037 to late 2037, and each of us could monitor the quantity of our BTC and also the value of the 200-WMA so that we can figure out how many BTC we need to support whatever might be our target sustainable withdrawal rate, and not all guys will consider 10% per year at the 200-WMA valuation to be sustainable, even though I discuss that withdrawal rate level in
my sustainable withdrawal thread.
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Bitcoin was certainly the best and most successful financial decision of my life and many of forum members life' (probably yours too).
I still think it is the best asset in the world.
But recently I have been considering if such aggressive bitcoin portfolio allocation is the best strategy.
Certainly users who want to accumulate bitcoin shouldn't think much and just make a few aggressive buys, maybe even at once and now all the money they want to allocate in bitcoin, as the price is already close to 200 WMA.
But even in current prices I still have about 25-30% of my overall portfolio allocated in bitcoin. I wonder if this is still a good idea.
Bitcoin upward potential isn't so great anymore. What do we (me, you, all of us) really expect for the next ATH? Certainly it is not 250k. Maybe 150k? 170k?
You are correct that for me, bitcoin has performed way better than any other asset that I had held, so a lot of options come when the asset performs well relative to other assets that we might be holding.
Ever since I got into bitcoin, there have always been questions about both the diminishing returns ideas and the ability of bitcoin to continue to go up, and surely in recent times, we have greater levels of fuckery in terms of bigger and BIGger players seeming to want to suppress bitcoin price and also putting large number of obstacles in the ability to be able to use it peer to peer and to also preserve your privacy and security.
Furthermore, as you seem to be suggesting, past performance does not guarantee future results, and so, on an individual level we are ongoingly faced with choices in regards to how much we allocate into bitcoin as compared with how much we might keep in fiat as compared to how much we might put in various other assets and/or investment opportunities, to the extent we might find those allocation locations to be reliable and/or having future price performance potential.
So of course we make choices in regards to how aggressive or how whimpy we might want to be and/or if we might believe that it is more reasonable to take some stance in between.
Don't get me wrong. I am always trying to find my own way out, even when I suggest that guys should try to invest into bitcoin as aggressively as they can without overdoing it, since in the end, they are the one who has to figure out and choose how aggressive they want to be and how much that it, without over doing it.
The past performance of the past cycle wasn't great. This is the 5Y performance of SP500 and bitcoin. Exactly the same.

So, holding bitcoin for the past 5 years didn't pay off. You would be much better just holding SP500 (less risk, less volatility, etc).
Sure. We can take a snapshot at any particular time and find that bitcoin's performance is going to vary as compared with other assets, especially if bitcoin is in a correction period and the other asset is in a higher performance period, and so for sure there is no guarantee that bitcoin is going to outperform any other asset, even though over longer periods of time, bitcoin has so far outperformed a good number of other assets, there surely can be glitches and there can also be what if I had invested in that particular asset instead of bitcoin. Easy to get distracted into inferior products, and yeah, maybe you will get lucky to switch, and maybe you won't?
I also addded gold to the chart, which had an incredible performance of 130% while bitcoin only 90%.
Maybe we are missing a lot of opportunities elsewhere. I won't even add the NVIDIA graph to the above chart, as NVIDIA performance 1000% and bitcoin only 93%.
And, of course that is your choice to figure out if you want to switch or even to change some of your allocations. Guys have to account for their own stage in their investment journey too in terms of potentially how many bitcoin that they had already acquired would factor into the matter, and so guys are going to be at different stages of their bitcoin accumulation journey and they may or may not feel that they are able to put some or all of their value into other assets, and if guys are considering bitcoin ONLY in terms of number go up, then they might be missing some of the other reasons to be in bitcoin in terms of self-sovereignty options - even though surely we know that there are ongoing and persistent attacks on the self-sovereignty angle of bitcoin, even though it still exists and remains a strong bitcoin attribute.
Sure there are likely some commodities and/or assets that are doing great right now, and we likely realize that a lot of assets and/or commodities may well have monetary properties, as is the case for gold, and how bitcoin had been compared with gold at various times in regards to its monetary properties, so surely any of us who might attempt to appreciate bitcoin for its monetary properties, we might well reasonably assess bitcoin as having something like 1,000x better monetary properties as gold, even though currently bitcoin has a market cap that is about 1/20th of gold's market cap... and so yeah, we might not know how monetary dynamics will continue to play out, and surely there are ongoing and continued attempts to attack bitcoin's monetary properties, and those attacks may or may not end up being successful... Whether or not bitcoin's market cap ends up coming to a better "fair market" value as compared to gold could take 50 years to 200 years to work out, and surely there are no guarantees how the market will work out the matter, since fair market value is likely what others are ready, willing and able to pay, so there can be ways that assessments of "fair market value" are made, yet the assessments are wrong.
By the way, as a reminder monetary properties relate to verifiability, scarcity, fungibility, transportability, divisibility and even costs of transportation/storage and abilities to hold as a bearer instrument. .. which any depth of though should establish that bitcoin is likely the best and/or most sound money that man has ever discovered/invented.. even if there are chances that bitcoin could still end up being broken or attacked into oblivion.. possible? yes. likely? still to be determined.
Historically, bitcoin has been the underdog.. and also difficult to attack, even though the attack vectors are internal and external and so frequently there can be lapses in confidence in terms of bitcoin's ability to get through these periods and even questions about the extent to which it might be possible to contain and/or co-opt it.
I am considering reducing my BTC in the next cycle (as I won't sell in these levels), to about 15-20% overall (selling 30-40% of my stash), as I think bitcoin upward potential is reaching a limit. Maybe people are tired of this narrative?
Guys who have been in bitcoin longer may well be in better positions to sell some of their coin, whether they are at sustainable withdrawal levels or not, and sure, if you treat bitcoin as just one asset in your portfolio of a variety of assets, you might never reach sustainable withdrawal in terms of your own bitcoin stash - to the extent that the sustainable withdrawal theme continues to play out in bitcoin, and I don't see how bitcoin's sustainable withdrawal theme is broken.
Of course, in this particular thread, guys are talking about getting to 1 bitcoin whether that is $50 per week or $500 per week or some other amount, and so some guys might be struggling to just get to a meaningfully sized bitcoin stash, to the extent that 1 BTC might be considered meaningful right now as compared with 5-30 years into the future. It does seem to me that if guys have a relatively long investment timeline, and it is even 10 to 30 years, then it seems quite likely to me that 1 bitcoin or even quite lower quantities of bitcoin will have some reasonably decent chances of being able to support fairly large sustainable withdrawal levels, yet of course, there are never any guarantees regarding the projected abilities to later be able to start to withdraw from bitcoin in a sustainable and/or meaningful way, if that might be the purpose of accumulating bitcoin for 10-30 years or more, then at some point along the way, there may well be some goals to want to be able to start to sustainably withdraw from the BTC holdings (and not necessarily to sell large portions of it at once or to diversify into some potentially inferior asset).
Personally, I like to try to measure targets based on our own income and perhaps trying to use our own income as something that we might want to strive to be able to replace, so if a person has an income of $15k per year and he is 30 years old, then maybe he would expect his income to double every 10 years, but ONLY if he is able to get promotions and meaningful increases in his wages. So then he might have a target to build his bitcoin investment to be 10x the size of his income so that he can start to withdraw from his bitcoin investment. These are not easy targets, but there are ways that making withdrawals from investments can be attempted to be sustainable rather than aiming to draw down the principle.
When people's trust in Bitcoin was low and the value of Bitcoin was low, I was not aware of Bitcoin. I became aware of Bitcoin in early 2021 and started studying it lightly. And in 2025, out of curiosity, I found this forum (which is now also useful for my income) and since then I have been trying to save Bitcoin. [Note that I had no income until the last month of 2024] Later, I had two tuitions and I used to allocate most of what I earned from there to buy Bitcoin because I had no initial expenses then and I was still dependent on my family. I have been trying to manage Bitcoin DCA for the past one year. I try to buy Bitcoin every month. I haven't planned to create an emergency fund yet since I don't have any money to set aside for running my family, but sometimes I feel like I should create one now, but I don't want to miss this opportunity when the price of Bitcoin has dropped. Since this is being discussed here, I'd like to know how much I should actually adjust my plan?
It is likely that you have heard me say, on numerous occasions, that the level of aggressiveness relates to personal preferences, and whether you label your back up funds as emergency funds or not, you have to have some level of back up funds to cover any loss of income and/or increase in expenses that you might have, and sure, if you have quite a few of your expenses that had been covered by your family, then you may well not need to have as large of a back up fund.
Of course, so many of us suggest that there are needs to build up your back up funds to be at least 3 months of your expenses, which sometimes can seem like a lot of unworking cash just sitting around, and so frequently, many of us will suggest building up the bitcoin holdings at the same rate as the back up funds, and surely there still can be ways to short cut on the back up funds to some extent, yet it seems that the more and more that we invest into bitcoin, the better it would be to keep larger amounts of cash on hand, so that we never have to tap into our bitcoin at a time that is not of our own choosing, and since we may well be trying to invest into bitcoin as aggressively as we are able to invest into it (without overdoing it), then we likely are ongoingly putting money into it on a weekly basis and maybe even just figuring out ways that we can increase our discretionary income so that we would be able to put more and more into bitcoin.
You may also know that I am not a great fan of increasing aggressiveness based on our perceptions of bitcoin price movements, yet surely the stronger our cashflow management and the greater our back up funds, the more likely that we are able to push our levels of aggressiveness in bitcoin accumulation to higher levels.
For sure, many guys might struggle to ongoingly invest 10% or so of their income into bitcoin, and any guys who are able to invest 20% of their income or greater into bitcoin, they are likely going to build up their bitcoin stash faster, so there are advantages when guys can figure out ways that they are able to accomplish such high levels of bitcoin investment within the scope of their discretionary funds.. especially since it can be challenging to obtain jobs that pay so well and also to be able to also keep expenses down to such a level that the money is available for bitcoin investing.
Ultimately, even though I would be suggesting that you have to figure out your levels, I do think that you need to be making sure that you are building up some reasonable level of back up funds, especially if you are ongoingly building up your bitcoin stash too.. so maybe if you don't want to match the back up funds to the same level of the bitcoin, maybe you might want to focus on building the back up funds at half the rate, even though I have a hard time appreciating if you had put 2-3 months of your expenses(or income) into bitcoin, and if your back up funds are less than a month, that might be irresponsible and overly risky...even though it is ultimately your choice regarding both how aggressive you are going to be in your buying of bitcoin and how much risk that you are putting yourself and your bitcoin holdings in when you might be choosing to not keep a sufficient amount of cash onhand.
And, by the way, I consider that the more that we build our bitcoin holdings, even if we might get our bitcoin holdings up to 6 months or more of our annual income, we still likely have to continue to build up our cash too, and yeah, maybe we build up the cash at a lower rate, but we likely need to keep building it up, which is likely a way of diversifying, even if our main focus would likely continue to be on building our bitcoin stash and even at the same time, our bitcoin's value might be fluctuating quite extensively in either direction, we still have to figure out ways to calculate the value of our bitcoin in reasonable ways and not get distracted by great changes in the bitcoin price and also changes in the value of the bitcoin that we are holding (and presumptively continuing to build up).
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When I say this I was wondering how I want to buy a single Bitcoin it's something that have been on my mind for a very long time the day I will will own 1 Bitcoin I am going to be happy because I know the value and for now we are going to stick to the Fractional owning since it's what we can afford now but am very sure that it's a matter of time before out dream will come through in owning 1 Bitcoin because the truth of it is that not everyone can own a single Bitcoin so the best thing is for us to invest what we can afford even through the DCA method or even buying the dip.
You have been registered on the forum since September 2021, so you have had opportunities to make some progress in both building up your bitcoin stack but also to make sure that you are strengthening and/or maintaining good cashflow management practices/systems. Nearly 5 years is a good amount of time to get accustomed to bitcoin and to build at the same time. It tends to take a long time to build bitcoin holdings, and frequently, we likely feel that we are not making much if any progress.
By the way, I just looked up your registration date, and if you had been buying $50 per week of bitcoin since September 2021, then you would have had invested $12.5k, and you would have had accumulated nearly 0.3BTC.. which surely would be a good place to be, yet if you were to want to get to 1 BTC within the next 5-10 years, you might have to increase your weekly buys to $300 or more... but yeah, sometimes we have to figure out how realistic it might be to accumulate a certain quantity of bitcoin within our own budget and what we might need to do to try to increase our discretionary funds if we might not have enough discretionary funds to meet our time and/or bitcoin accumulation targets.
Regarding your statement about being able to buy more based on "buying the dip," that seems to be a wrong way of thinking about bitcoin accumulation.
In other words, you should be able to ongoingly buy bitcoin, and perhaps from time to time, you will get extra money that you are able to put into bitcoin, such as some kind of a bonus at work or some other income or receipt of extra money or even cutting of some expenses that causes extra funds to come available and to be available for bitcoin investing. Once we are ongoingly buying bitcoin and we are managing our cashflows, then we are likely putting ourselves in a position to be able to take advantage of extra money when it comes in, without necessarily considering that we have to discretionarily consume with all of our extra money as soon as it comes in... Once we are investing in bitcoin and also strengthening our back up funds, we likely consider those as places that we can put extra money if and when it comes in.