Bitcoin cycle

[NNRR]

Yes. Just like on us human. As a kid, we are still being guided by our parents but the moment we have grown up, we are now starting to become an independent person. When it comes to effect, not just for the short term but as well as for the long term, people may still predict it or at least close to it if what can possibly happen once they get the hang out of things.

A person who learns with patience and moves forward with understanding gradually reaches a point where decisions are no longer driven by emotion, but are made thoughtfully and rationally. At that stage, they can see beyond short-term gains or losses and clearly understand the long-term impact. This mindset is what matters most because with it, a person doesn’t just react to situations, but can prepare in advance and make smarter decisions.

[DanWalker]

Why would investor confidence and self-assurance decline if the 4 year cycle is broken? I dont think so. Bitcoin's potential lies in its decentralization and scarcity, and people believe in it because of those core element.

People invest in Bitcoin because they believe that, given its characteristics, Bitcoin will become a valuable asset in the long term. They dont invest because of its 4 year cycle, only speculator cling to cycle in the hope of getting rich quickly.

Changes in market cycles are inevitable, and this has been predicted in advance.  Sooner or later, it will happen.

[jcojci]

Don't trust what other said because they don't know what will happens. Maybe if Bitcoin cycle is broken, that will be very bad for Bitcoin in long term but maybe not.

But reaching to high price is not easy so there should be a down for a while and increase step by step and stay there for a while. After that, the price may gets another ATH which could happens in next 3-4 years.

You don't have to thinks about that but enjoy the ride and prepare yourself. No one knows so we don't have to busy listen to them but busy for our preparation.

[SquallLeonhart]

How will the cycles be broken and there will be a bear market of less days and a bull run of more days when it all depends on investors' sentiment? We all know that the market moves because of low or high demand for Bitcoin, because high demand means more money being poured into the market, hence the market goes up, and low demand means less money is coming into the market and more is probably going out of it, that's when the market starts going down, this how cycles work, and this will continue to be that way, because just one institutional company might be buying at all times, but not all of them will do the same, and retail will never do it.

The market can never have the same level of demand for very long, for example of a cycle consists of 4 years, then 3 years for high demand and 1 year for low demand won't be a viable or possible scenario, because what goes up has to come down, so if demand gets high, people fill their bags, and the price goes up, they are going to sell to take profit, and that will reduce the demand, and the market will go down again, and the same thing will happen again. This is the reason why we have bear markets, because there will be profit-taking at one point.

[Mpamaegbu]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

Whether the circle is broken or not can't be fathomed now until end of this year. We, expectedly, know that 2026 ought to be a bear year from past records but it's not looking like it now. Bitcoin has continued to stubbornly recover each time it went down. I don't think price has dropped below 50% from its 2025 ATH till date. In the past we've had Bitcoin drop abysmally below that level a year after it did its ATH.

Anyway, if the circle is broken, it will only be the concern of investors and not traders. Again, if it's broken it will somehow help in stabilizing price as dumpers won't dump massively around the same time like a coordinated attack. What we've now is healthy. Price goes down and almost like magic comes up again. I like it.

[BTC_Guru_13]

The cycle didn’t die. Bitcoin cycles are still fundamentally tied to halvings and human psychology. What changes over time is the amplitude. As the asset grows, upside multiples and downside crashes naturally shrink. That’s not a “broken cycle”, that’s simple math and market maturity.

ETFs and companies like Strategy are not magical new money printers either. They are just new gateways. In many cases, people who would have bought actual BTC are now buying exposure through ETFs or leveraged proxy plays like Strategy stock instead. That can temporarily inflate price action in a less organic way and introduce different systemic risks over time.

The important question was never “did the cycle die?”. That’s mostly a discussion for traders hunting entries and exits. The real long-term question is whether Bitcoin keeps outperforming inflation, fiat debasement, and major global assets over decades while maintaining broad belief and adoption among ordinary people.

And honestly, people screaming “the cycle is dead” every few months sound more like engagement farmers than serious thinkers. Listen to enough noise and eventually you’ll forget the fundamentals you originally believed in.

[cryptoaddictchie]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

Not at all. Remembered that those lines are their opinion and has no merits at all. Everyone can say their speculation avout the cycle but as far as the market goes. Bitcoin will do up and down no matter what the cycle is. Technically they are the one who started the cycle on whole crypto market. Whatever narratives now on alts are rising it will always bitcoin will trigger the movement its either its bearish or bullish.

[masulum]

Not at all. Remembered that those lines are their opinion and has no merits at all. Everyone can say their speculation avout the cycle but as far as the market goes. Bitcoin will do up and down no matter what the cycle is. Technically they are the one who started the cycle on whole crypto market. Whatever narratives now on alts are rising it will always bitcoin will trigger the movement its either its bearish or bullish.

exactly, bitcoin cycle can change at anytime. for some trader, they really pay attention to halving process as a sign the cycle will start. because BTC price increase to break new ATH always happen post halving, even though the increase period is not 100% same, but halving always become a signal that so far quite effective for holding. Those who accumulate BTC before halving and hold until post halving mostly getting good profit. This then used as 4-year bitcoin cycle to accumulate before new ATH and until now still believed will repeat again.

[Nathrixxx]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

I don't know what you mean by bitcoin circle broken, but I want you to be rest assured bitcoin will not be displaced by any encounter from any form of threats, regardless of the source, we also have to understand that the market may not necessarily go in our own direction, it's volatility is unpredictable in most cases and this is why we have to work by the season and speculate the market to know the cycle it may be at a particular time before we conclude on our own decision.

[tbct_mt2]

How will the cycles be broken and there will be a bear market of less days and a bull run of more days when it all depends on investors' sentiment? We all know that the market moves because of low or high demand for Bitcoin, because high demand means more money being poured into the market, hence the market goes up, and low demand means less money is coming into the market and more is probably going out of it, that's when the market starts going down, this how cycles work, and this will continue to be that way, because just one institutional company might be buying at all times, but not all of them will do the same, and retail will never do it.

We only can use the price history, price chart to summarize it like a market cycle, a cycle pattern, and how to plan our investment in a next market cycle. While future is unknown, not yet come, and market makers can change their plans and manipulations in the market too.

Bitcoin cycles comparison: halving, top, bottom, crossing top of previous cycle.
https://www.bitcoincyclescomparison.com/

It can be helpful for learning about market cycles, past patterns, but it's important to know that in the future, Bitcoin adoption with grow up more and bigger, demand of buying and owning bitcoin will become bigger, while we know future new bitcoins from mining will become less and less, halved every four years.

Knowing this can help us holding our bitcoin tightly, and even accumulating more bitcoins if possible.

[monetizator4]

Bitcoin's cycles are complex, influenced by various factors like institutional buying/selling and macroeconomic conditions. A single institution’s actions won't break the cycle, but large-scale trends can shift it. Bull runs tend to last longer when broader investor sentiment is positive, yet bear markets still happen due to selling pressures. The key is to stay informed and adapt your strategy accordingly

[Alpen]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

If now Bitcoin goes up to new maximums, rather than having another leg down until 4Q 2026, then we would have had only 200 bear days approx, rather than 350-400 bear days as in previous cycles. Significant difference. As Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, the historical 4 year cycle structure would be broken.

They believe it is good. Or perhaps they need that to happen for their highly leveraged businesses to survive. But rather than being good for Bitcoin, it could be very bad.

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

The 4-year cycle cannot be "broken" because it is hardcoded into the Bitcoin protocol. What changes is the market's reaction to the cycle—specifically, to the halving event itself.

Historically, investors consistently trade on two key patterns:

Price retreats to the mining production cost following a halving.

Price climbs to at least 2x that production cost in anticipation of the next supply squeeze.

We saw this in both 2020 and 2024. The only difference this time was that in 2024, we merely touched the mining cost level before a massive bounce—a clear sign of institutional capital entering the fray.



The cycle remains intact, but no one can pinpoint exactly how the price will fluctuate within it or count the exact number of bull vs. bear days. For that, you have to look at industry news and fundamental events.

[blomen]

i am almost 100% certain that bitcoin’s cycles will not break down. a cycle breaking down and its impact diminishing are two different things. a bear market does not necessarily mean we have to keep falling continuously for 300–400 days. it is sufficient that this is the amount of time it takes for bitcoin to go from its all-time high to its next low. the bitcoin price is currently around $80,000, and it could stay in this range for a few more months. after that, even a few days spent below $60,000 will be enough for us to understand that the cycle hasn’t broken.

[vs2014]

The market is always volatile so none of us can be sure about the market so everyone can guess what will happen in the end. Even the May is not a bearish month so Bitcoin is still calm. So in proportion to the cycles of the past few years the altcoins market has completely disappointed and broken the previous cycle. This year's cycle has been driven by many factors including war but not by much in past cycles. There is no clear sign of a ceasefire yet so many investors are scared and some have even sold. When all the speculation is over we will see Bitcoin hit $100k again.

[Catenaccio]

i am almost 100% certain that bitcoin’s cycles will not break down. a cycle breaking down and its impact diminishing are two different things. a bear market does not necessarily mean we have to keep falling continuously for 300–400 days. it is sufficient that this is the amount of time it takes for bitcoin to go from its all-time high to its next low. the bitcoin price is currently around $80,000, and it could stay in this range for a few more months. after that, even a few days spent below $60,000 will be enough for us to understand that the cycle hasn’t broken.

Market makers even can do very last unexpected tests like Covid-19 crash, after that Bitcoin recovered strongly and sharpy in V-shaped and never retest the bottom price. This current bear market has yet finished and we all can not predict how it will end as well as when it will finish, but I strongly believe that Bitcoin four-year market cycle will still work well. Even it does not work 100% similar to past market cycles, by believing in the market cycle, I will be able to prepare my investment plan and my bitcoin accumulation better.

The market is always volatile so none of us can be sure about the market so everyone can guess what will happen in the end. Even the May is not a bearish month so Bitcoin is still calm. So in proportion to the cycles of the past few years the altcoins market has completely disappointed and broken the previous cycle.

Volatility exists but different people in Bitcoin market will see it differently and have been able to take advantage of it for profit, or get loss if they don't know how to do well with their capital, investment and risk management. Chances actually exist for everyone in the market, but it's individual responsibility to do necessary things for profit, but firstly manage risk well enough for securing their finance and initial investment capital.

[michellee]

You don't have to think about the cycle will change or not because that will be too complicated especially to those who new in Bitcoin. Those who called them as an expert can say many things about their speculation but they don't know what will or could happen to Bitcoin. If you use Bitcoin as your long term investment, nothing to worry with anything and just focus to your investment. I just see that Bitcoin have a cycle to increase after halving so that will be the time for many investors wait as they could sell their Bitcoin if the price reach their target price.

[AakZaki]

I'm not sure the cycle will be broken, because it's been almost 5 months, the price of Bitcoin has not shown a trend change in the long term, so the bearish trend means that it is still ongoing.
I myself still project that the price of Bitcoin will reach the bottom price in early October or mid-October this year.

This pattern has continued to repeat three times, namely in 2015, 2018 and 2022, It is based on the spiral pattern that I studied, while this year I project it will happen in early October or mid-October.

I haven't accumulated Bitcoin yet, but I'm still taking advantage of the volatility that is happening right now and looking for profits in trading in it.
I still promise myself, that I should not accumulate Bitcoin before the predetermined time.

[justdimin]

The market is always volatile so none of us can be sure about the market so everyone can guess what will happen in the end. Even the May is not a bearish month so Bitcoin is still calm. So in proportion to the cycles of the past few years the altcoins market has completely disappointed and broken the previous cycle.

Volatility exists but different people in Bitcoin market will see it differently and have been able to take advantage of it for profit, or get loss if they don't know how to do well with their capital, investment and risk management. Chances actually exist for everyone in the market, but it's individual responsibility to do necessary things for profit, but firstly manage risk well enough for securing their finance and initial investment capital.

While you can still definitely make a profit from the volatility, it doesn't mean that it will be easy. Yes there are some people who made some profit from the volatility that is true, but some people also wanted to do that and lost money as well. So you have to be careful about it and if you are not then you are going to end up losing money.

There are a lot of people out there who are trying to trade and utilize that volatility and volume we have and end up losing money instead. Most researches shows that there are more people losing from trading than people who are making profit from it. Which means that smaller amount of group of people end up taking the money from the majority of the group because they are better at it.

[Franctoshi]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

If now Bitcoin goes up to new maximums, rather than having another leg down until 4Q 2026, then we would have had only 200 bear days approx, rather than 350-400 bear days as in previous cycles. Significant difference. As Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, the historical 4 year cycle structure would be broken.

They believe it is good. Or perhaps they need that to happen for their highly leveraged businesses to survive. But rather than being good for Bitcoin, it could be very bad.

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

Yes, the Bitcoin cycle has broken since the entry of the institutional players into the market. If we ride down through its historical performances and the market behavior, we can agree that this cycle is fundamentally different from the rest of the other ones. Generally, in the long-term view, I don't really see it as a problem because, despite the fact that we like the volatility during each cycle, as in how Bitcoin shoots up and down, it's like everyone was getting used to playing the same game and dumping Bitcoin after it had experienced those big rallies, which caused the market to crash, but this cycle everything is changing entirely.

[OsaiEmma]

If bitcoin cycle is broken as Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, do you think that would be very bad for bitcoin long term?

If now Bitcoin goes up to new maximums, rather than having another leg down until 4Q 2026, then we would have had only 200 bear days approx, rather than 350-400 bear days as in previous cycles. Significant difference. As Michael Saylor and other business owners are saying, the historical 4 year cycle structure would be broken.

They believe it is good. Or perhaps they need that to happen for their highly leveraged businesses to survive. But rather than being good for Bitcoin, it could be very bad.

Because if the cycle expectations are broken, after this bear period of 200 days, there wouldn't be a strong expectation for a 3 years bull period. Doubts would grow in adversity, less trust, less confidence. Resulting in a much weaker Bitcoin's price increase in the future. Or perhaps quite worse.

Honestly, I can't say for sure if Bitcoin have really broken out of d 4 years cycle, although I think we're still in d bear market, and d bull might resume next year(my POV). But I don't think dat alone will have significant impact on Bitcoin. Bitcoin isn't where it is today because of d 4 years cycle, it is where it is because a lot of people bought d vision, and built something solid around it, so I don't think it will have much impact.

One of d biggest propellers of d 4 years cycle is d Bitcoin halving, so der will always b dat cycle, but some might be short lived and other long, so it's not a cycle of specific time but specific event, and d reaction of traders, cause no body can accurately tell or point to when and where der will be a bottom or a top.