Powell OUT, Warsh IN as Fed Chairman SOON!

[Satofan44]

Companies can hype all they want, but central banks have the final say on the state of the economy. This directly affects the stock market. So if a central bank like the FED decides to cut rates, the market will boom. The inverse happens if rates are raised. Considering that the new FED chairman is hawkish, I'm afraid both crypto and stocks will continue to decline within the short-term. Even precious metals such as Gold and Silver are suffering. I'm not sure about bonds, though.

Every decision the FED makes affects us one way or another. Even if Kevin Warsh wants to satisfy Trump by cutting rates, there will be other board members that will oppose him. Former chairman Jerome Powell is still on the Board of Governors. Since inflation is high, the FED should either leave rates unchanged or raise them a bit. We'll see what happens...

This is due to the fact that this is the accurate assessment of the US and the world at this time. I would rather a honest FED chairman than one pretending that everything is fine when the economic situation is in a terrible situation, and actually doing the opposite of what the economy needs in most cases will cause even more damage leading to a spiral. The world has been in various chaotic issues for over a decade now, the illegal migration scam, the pandemic, various wars and many other things are going on. The situation has yet to stabilize let alone actually become bullish. At the current overview, the situation still does not look bright. When you have retards on the "opposing" sides always arguing in favor of more war, then we find ourselves in this situation. You have many who want Trump to back off of the peace deal and engage in more war, and many that want Zelensky to fight until every single Ukranian is dead or Ukraine is gone for good instead of conceding to what has already been lost.

Too many people have incentives for this kind of thing, the system is backwards. If things were normal, whatever that means these days, for 5 to 10 years we would be back in golden times.

[Wind_FURY]

The market was reminded again who is in charge here.

While everyone was arguing about AI, SpaceX, robotaxi and new hype deals, the Fed calmly came out and said: guys, no one canceled the bets.

The new head of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, made it clear that if inflation does not cool down, the rate may rise by another 50 bps.

And the market was like, OK, we remembered. Nasdaq , S&P 500 decreased their values . The yield on 10-year treasuries has gone to 4.6%.

AI can be a real technological wave. Nvidia can keep making money. Data centers can be built.
So I wouldn't be looking at who says “AI” the loudest right now. I would see who would survive the 4.5%+ rate without fairy tales and presentations.

Bitcoin reacted only with increased volatility.

Companies can hype all they want, but central banks have the final say on the state of the economy. This directly affects the stock market. So if a central bank like the FED decides to cut rates, the market will boom. The inverse happens if rates are raised. Considering that the new FED chairman is hawkish, I'm afraid both crypto and stocks will continue to decline within the short-term. Even precious metals such as Gold and Silver are suffering. I'm not sure about bonds, though.

The U.S. stock market, particularly in the A.I. sector are actually continuing to surge to their new All Time Highs, not "continuing to go down".

Every decision the FED makes affects us one way or another. Even if Kevin Warsh wants to satisfy Trump by cutting rates, there will be other board members that will oppose him. Former chairman Jerome Powell is still on the Board of Governors. Since inflation is high, the FED should either leave rates unchanged or raise them a bit. We'll see what happens...

I believe that because their midterm election is coming, Trump will probably want to lower inflation and sacrifice the A.I. surge to stabilize prices of goods and services.

[SquallLeonhart]

To be fair, if it is rising, then inflation would be battled, but investments will drop, and then the price of bitcoin would also drop, and considering we are suppose to be in bear market, it would be even more. But if it is cut down, and smaller, then investment will go up, and bitcoin price would be in a weird position.

Because rates cut down would mean that people would withdraw their money from there, and look to invest somewhere, but bitcoin is in a bear market and gone down 50%+ so far, which means that it may not be a prime place to put your money in since people expect it to not recover right away. So I am not sure what would happen, and we have to wait and see how the market will react and what will happen with his meeting.

[JeffBrad12]

To be fair, if it is rising, then inflation would be battled, but investments will drop, and then the price of bitcoin would also drop, and considering we are suppose to be in bear market, it would be even more. But if it is cut down, and smaller, then investment will go up, and bitcoin price would be in a weird position.

Because rates cut down would mean that people would withdraw their money from there, and look to invest somewhere, but bitcoin is in a bear market and gone down 50%+ so far, which means that it may not be a prime place to put your money in since people expect it to not recover right away. So I am not sure what would happen, and we have to wait and see how the market will react and what will happen with his meeting.

Seems like there is an impending rate hike and hawkish stance in the future even with Warsh as a Chairman.
This could be a bad news for bitcoin when recovery is still ongoing from the most recent dumps. After all, whether rate hikes or not depend on votes not the Chairman.
Stock market already reacted with the rumour and plunged a little because 9 Fed official already signaled support for it.

[Wind_FURY]

To be fair, if it is rising, then inflation would be battled, but investments will drop, and then the price of bitcoin would also drop, and considering we are suppose to be in bear market, it would be even more. But if it is cut down, and smaller, then investment will go up, and bitcoin price would be in a weird position.

THEN the Four-Year-Cycle would be complete.

 

Because rates cut down would mean that people would withdraw their money from there, and look to invest somewhere, but bitcoin is in a bear market and gone down 50%+ so far, which means that it may not be a prime place to put your money in since people expect it to not recover right away. So I am not sure what would happen, and we have to wait and see how the market will react and what will happen with his meeting.

I'm VERY confident that those people will miss the best opportunity to buy Bitcoin. Plus a majority of those people will be the plebs who will FOMO at prices OVER $100,000, or probably higher than that.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[summonerrk]

The new Fed chairman proved to be firm on his principles but cautious about his upcoming rate decision. He didn't signal a mandatory hike in July and outright refused to "predetermine" the outcome of the meeting. At the same time, he repeatedly emphasized that the Fed has no intention of tolerating persistent inflation.
Key statements:
1. "We have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation."
He doesn't want the market to perceive any improvement in statistics as an automatic path to rate cuts.
2. "Inflation is a choice."
A strong position: Warsh refuses to attribute high inflation solely to oil, wars, or external shocks. Less discussion.
3. On the rate: "I will not predetermine the July decision."This is more important than any attempt to guess its next move.
4. On the Fed's balance sheet: no sudden actions. Any major changes will be discussed and explained to the market in advance.

[bubilas]

The new Fed chairman proved to be firm on his principles but cautious about his upcoming rate decision. He didn't signal a mandatory hike in July and outright refused to "predetermine" the outcome of the meeting. At the same time, he repeatedly emphasized that the Fed has no intention of tolerating persistent inflation.

You didn't seem to remember his words about crypto: Warsh was asked whether the Fed would bail out the crypto market or stablecoin-related entities in the event of a systemic crisis. His response:
"We're trying to get to a position where we don't have to bail out anyone, including crypto."
The Fed doesn't want to bailout. However, he didn't say the Fed would ignore systemic risk. The goal is to limit risks in advance so that a bailout isn't necessary. The logic is that: Crypto is already being actively integrated into banks and the payment system.
And it's considered a segment of the financial market.
Historically, the Fed has worked to prevent systemic risks, but it has no intention of restricting or stimulating the development of the cryptocurrency sector specifically.

[summonerrk]

The new Fed chairman proved to be firm on his principles but cautious about his upcoming rate decision. He didn't signal a mandatory hike in July and outright refused to "predetermine" the outcome of the meeting. At the same time, he repeatedly emphasized that the Fed has no intention of tolerating persistent inflation.

You didn't seem to remember his words about crypto: Warsh was asked whether the Fed would bail out the crypto market or stablecoin-related entities in the event of a systemic crisis. His response:
"We're trying to get to a position where we don't have to bail out anyone, including crypto."
The Fed doesn't want to bailout. However, he didn't say the Fed would ignore systemic risk. The goal is to limit risks in advance so that a bailout isn't necessary. The logic is that: Crypto is already being actively integrated into banks and the payment system.
And it's considered a segment of the financial market.
Historically, the Fed has worked to prevent systemic risks, but it has no intention of restricting or stimulating the development of the cryptocurrency sector specifically.

Yeah, that important. Thanks.
The intrigue remains: todays Senate testimony. I expect Warsh to take a similar tone, but potentially harsher in his responses.
Because the questions will likely be more politicized and aggressive.
His strategy:
1. Don't give a direct signal for either a hike or a cut.
2. Repeat that the decision depends on the totality of the data.
Powell's mantra: "data dependent." Don't allow the market to interpret the weak June CPI as a final victory over inflation.
3. Emphasize the Fed's independence. Avoid as much as possible specific promises regarding the balance sheet and the timing of rate changes.
And I think he will withstand this onslaught of criticism and tough questions. The main thing: he has already (almost) dispelled fears of dependence on the Trump administration. Taken together, this position allows markets to shift their focus to economic data, rather than the rhetoric of the FOMC bankers.