In a bearish cycle DCA will become useless

[AakZaki]

I will try to practice here regarding DCA which is talked about a lot by people, because to be honest I myself am not interested in doing DCA regularly. Here's the picture: If for example, someone buys regularly every month for DCA purposes, I take the price rate below randomly per month:

• $125,000 October - Buy $1000
• $98,800 November - DCA $1000
• $84,000 December - DCA $1000
• $88,500 January - DCA $1000
• $60,000 February - DCA $1000
• $65,000 March - DCA $1000
• $67,600 April - DCA $1000
• $82,500 May - DCA $1000

I have calculated that the average price you will get is $83,800, with a total capital of $8000 and for 8 months.

Even until now the price has not reached the average price of $83,800, instead it tends to fall at the current $78,245. That means this person is still in a floating minus position for 8 months.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

[Oshosondy]

All that is need in holding bitcoin is time. It needs years and not just some months. Bitcoin will get to all time high and the person will finally make money.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

This is what some traders will think, to double the money, but at the end, they will see themselves having $0 left as all the money has been lost to trading.

The reality is that 85% of traders or more are losing, but they will also think like this until they see themselves losing the bull run again because of trading.

I am a trader, I do not support trading idea on this topic. Trade with the amount of money that you can afford to lose.

[Findingnemo]

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However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

DCA is for the retailers and only effective in the long term, should be at least a complete cycle or more to get effective results.

I am not fan of DCAing either, on some days, you will feel great but on some days it feels like you are wasting the potential capital by just letting it idle and even continue doing it, knowing the bearish season is here to stay. But one who got no knowledge or any trading skills and has the dream of accumulating a decent amount of bitcoin after 5 years of investment then this is one of the best methods.

[Stalker22]

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However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

I really have to disagree with your point here.  You are comparing a really bad DCA situation to an ideal trading dream, and thats just not how things work out in reality.

Think about the numbers you used yourself.  By buying a bit each month, this person brought their average buying price way down, from $125k to $83,800. That would be a lot better than if they had put all their money in at once, for example, at $100k?  Sure, at $78k, they are down around 6.5%, but they are in a much stronger position compared to if they had just jumped in with all $8,000 right at the beginning. DCA did exactly what it was meant to do: it mitigated the risk.

There is no "trading knowledge" that will magically guarantee a 100% win rate.  DCA is a calculated strategy to survive the exact scenario you just described

[coinlary]

The list is how DCA works. The other part, timing and buying at a particular spot (with trading knowledge), is buying the dips. I can DCA and still buy dips, that is, use my trading knowledge to identify good entries. Both can co exist with proper planning of my capital.

IMO, what DCA eliminates is the risk of missing out. Bitcoin doesn't care about our analysis, and it doesn’t care how good you are, unless you just want to play the “buying the dip” game just like  DCA.

[AakZaki]

This is what some traders will think, to double the money, but at the end, they will see themselves having $0 left as all the money has been lost to trading.

This is just an unfounded assumption right? Have you seen that recently there is a trading competition here, people in it still have a lot of money to trade. In fact, they get big prizes for the trading competition.

The reality is that 85% of traders or more are losing, but they will also think like this until they see themselves losing the bull run again because of trading.

If you are a trader, why don't you follow it when there is a trading competition? Shouldn't it be able to test your mentality and knowledge in trading? There are even big prizes, or are you one of the 85% of traders who have lost money to the point of no money?

some days it feels like you are wasting the potential capital by just letting it idle.

I never felt great.

But in this part you're right, sometimes I just let my USD capital sit idle without any trades, but it's part of the strategy to not buy in a hurry when there is a price correction.

[Oshosondy]

This is just an unfounded assumption right?

You can research about it yourself. Use search engine or AI.

Have you seen that recently there is a trading competition here, people in it still have a lot of money to trade. In fact, they get big prizes for the trading competition.

I do not see that as the real trading. I consider that as swapping. Traders trade on Hyperliquid, Asterdex, or connecting wallet to pancakeswap for derivative or the use of exchanges like Binance, MEXC, Bybit for the trading.

You posted double the money which clearly indicates derivatives or margin.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

I like you is the reason I posted this, you do not need ask me question about making profit or losing in trading, my post is about traders generally. I have enough knowledge in trading than you think, it is not what I can just advise anyone to jump into. Trading will be the reason many people will not hold for the next bull run.

Do you even know who James Wynn is? We talked about him on this board a lot of times in 2025.

[AakZaki]

You can research about it yourself. Use search engine or AI.

Unfortunately I never researched about it, due to the fact that people still trade with large volumes, as I mentioned in the previous post.

I do not see that as the real trading. I consider that as swapping. Traders trade on Hyperliquid, Asterdex, or connecting wallet to pancakeswap for derivative or the use of exchanges like Binance, MEXC, Bybit for the trading.

You posted double the money which clearly indicates derivatives or margin.

Not real trading, are you sure? Isn't the purpose of trading profit, so wherever the trading activity is carried out, it should still be called trading.

I never trade derivatives or margin, I only trade Spot. I will show you the screenshot below, which I show is not the selection of the coin but the entry to buy and sell it. regarding the volume I did you can calculate it yourself, then When it runs for 8 months. Isn't that possible to be 2x over. Remember 8 months, not overnight.

it is not what I can just advise anyone to jump into.

Never advise others to trade, but advise them to learn the science of trading. Gradually they will be able to do it right.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Being someone who have actually used dca alot and still uses it when accumulating some coins or crypto asset for and as long term investment, I can tell you categorically clear that DCA is absolutely useful in all season, but I definitely understand and won't argue much with you if you since I believe that life is full of choices, and what a person chooses is what determine his or are actions or in-actions.

Someone like myself based on my choices can be using DCA and completely love it while some other person won't react same way because based on their one choices, DCA is absolutely not necessary or needed at all, the truth of the matter now being that a man's food could be another man's poison, you don't use or like f
DCA during bear season doesn't make it useless generally, it's only useless for you.

[Asiska02]

Everything here is looking great and perfect and there is no cause for alarm is one decides to go for this method of accumulation of bitcoin. This person may still be in loss due to the approach he has taken to do DCA in the financial market. This is not a loss as long as the market is still ranging within the average entry price of all your buys, you still stand a very good chance here.

By the moment the bullish state of the market arrives, you’ll wail in joy and laughter for sticking to this method for a long term and never gave up. The goal is for the long term results and it for short term gains. Going to still trade during that period is only advisable if you’re a trader and has a good management skills, if not it is better to also stay away from it from onset.

[AakZaki]

DCA during bear season doesn't make it useless generally, it's only useless for you.

It is indeed difficult to explain to someone who cannot do it, even though I have explained the point in the OP. Will you continue in expectation under the pretext of DCA? Even though what is experienced is a prolonged loss.

You don't need to follow the way I trade or anything, just learn how to analyze, at least technically. So it is not just about doing DCA, DCA without analysis is just an expectation. Because basically the trend is your friend.

Analogy: When you follow your friend into the abyss you will both die, and vice versa. When you get on a plane with your friend, you will both fly.
The bottom line is: When you learn the right way to trade you won't go against a bearish trend, you wait until the reversal point appears.

[EL MOHA]

You don't need to follow the way I trade or anything, just learn how to analyze, at least technically. So it is not just about doing DCA, DCA without analysis is just an expectation. Because basically the trend is your friend.

I think this has long been discussed here that DCA is not actually just something that gives you the best of all profit but certainly that which protects your investment from unnecessary risk. Yes you maybe right that having good analysis of the market actually get you to buy at very good position but let’s be realistic no matter how good you’re in analyzing you’re simply just speculating the market and that has its risk which is you can perfectly get to time the market while in some cases you cannot.

But here is the fight for DCA which if you look at the forum is mostly for total newbies. With DCA you can predominantly get better average at buying in different interval than going in all at once. Anyone that has advice DCA will always emphasize on the need for long term hold with minimum time been four years ( a cycle) and most importantly for a coin which has a greater chance of creating a new ATH in this period. Over a short period of time DCA wouldn’t seem to something that will work out,

Looking at your analysis imagine someone actually getting that $83,000 average at the current ATH he is definitely in profit. But with straight up analysis he might either get the $98,000 or even the $60,000 but none is certain, and this uncertainty is what DCA is meant to address, to try and minimize the risk of loss and possibly maximize the profit

[LogitechMouse]

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Even until now the price has not reached the average price of $83,800, instead it tends to fall at the current $78,245. That means this person is still in a floating minus position for 8 months.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

Well, that might be true, and this is subjective, but for me doing the DCA strategy will take years before you see the profit. This is just my opinion, but 8 months is a small sample size, and yes it might be useless by now, but continuing to do that until the bull run cycle comes again and you will see that your Bitcoin holdings will appreciate and it could double your money.

Opinions for me are to be respected as always so I respect yours, but I might disagree with what you said that DCA is useless during the bearish cycle. I don't have time to do it, but let's just use the 2022 bear market cycle as an example. Let's say you bought $1000 worth of Bitcoin for the whole year, and continued to do it for the 2023 and 2024. Will you agree to me if I say that that investor made money if he sold of those Bitcoin that he accumulated during the 2025 bull market? If yes, then you will agree to me that DCA is not for short to medium term kind of strategy only, but it's a long-term one.

As for trading part, unfortunately not all of the investors out there are good traders that's why less than 10% of those traders are profitable. Trading isn't for all, and even you have good trading knowledge, that doesn't mean that you will certainly make money in it. I would say though that trading in a bear market cycle is still profitable IF you know what you're doing and you have a working strategy.

[slaman29]

8 months? DCA isn't meant for 8 months It's meant for long-term. I always write that whenever I mention it, I'm sure others do too.

That is how average works. The more the sample the better the average as an indication. Anyone who says DCA with Bitcoin and doesn't think in terms of ATH to ATH cycle isn't getting the full benefit of DCA

[bitLeap]

8 months? DCA isn't meant for 8 months It's meant for long-term. I always write that whenever I mention it, I'm sure others do too.

That is how average works. The more the sample the better the average as an indication. Anyone who says DCA with Bitcoin and doesn't think in terms of ATH to ATH cycle isn't getting the full benefit of DCA

DCA isn't suitable for everyone, especially traders accustomed to analyzing market movements. There's no need to feel superior to other methods, as the ultimate goal is the same profit but they simply have different preferences. Personally I prefer to use both methods, but I can only choose one.

[Strongkored]

When using DCA, profit calculations are made when the market starts to turn bullish, not bearish.
DCA is also for small investors who have limited funds and don't enjoy trading.
When the market starts to turn bullish, traders will begin to feel that being long term holder is much more profitable compared to trading.

[Wind_FURY]

I will try to practice here regarding DCA which is talked about a lot by people, because to be honest I myself am not interested in doing DCA regularly. Here's the picture: If for example, someone buys regularly every month for DCA purposes, I take the price rate below randomly per month:

• $125,000 October - Buy $1000
• $98,800 November - DCA $1000
• $84,000 December - DCA $1000
• $88,500 January - DCA $1000
• $60,000 February - DCA $1000
• $65,000 March - DCA $1000
• $67,600 April - DCA $1000
• $82,500 May - DCA $1000

I have calculated that the average price you will get is $83,800, with a total capital of $8000 and for 8 months.

Even until now the price has not reached the average price of $83,800, instead it tends to fall at the current $78,245. That means this person is still in a floating minus position for 8 months.

However, with the same capital and the same time, if you have good trading knowledge, the capital should be able to double. Unless you really can't trade, that's how it happens.

Although I suggest to wait for the bear market DIPs to get a discount for the same amount of fiat, I will play the Devil's Advocate.

YOU forgot the ACTUAL MORE IMPORTANT PART of the strategy - to HODL, no?

Come back to this topic in ten years.

[tbct_mt2]

8 months? DCA isn't meant for 8 months It's meant for long-term. I always write that whenever I mention it, I'm sure others do too.

That is how average works. The more the sample the better the average as an indication. Anyone who says DCA with Bitcoin and doesn't think in terms of ATH to ATH cycle isn't getting the full benefit of DCA

Investment is long term, DCA is a strategy for long term investment but it's not wrong to consider people who patiently accumulated bitcoin for 8 months are not like investors, and what they did is not DCA.

They only need to maintain their DCA practice in the future as well as have their diamond hands and strong mentality for holding their coins for a long time. As together with maintaining bitcoin accumulation in the future, they will have to also hold their coins, what they bought, very strongly without panic sell during any volatile time of this market.

[knowngunman]

It's fine for someone not to be interested in doing DCA regularly but to me it seems off to mix it up with trading. There are other alternatives out there that seem okay to some people.

The truth is trading usually look good on paper but not in reality at least for the majority. This can not even be debated because there are data to back it up. Only few among many traders make money from trading after spending so many years monitoring screen.

DCA is slow and boring thou but trading is not easier either, it's hard. I will choose DCA where skills is not needed over trading multiple times that someone may lose gains and capital with one bad move.

[Jaweria parveen]

Investment is long term, DCA is a strategy for long term investment but it's not wrong to consider people who patiently accumulated bitcoin for 8 months are not like investors, and what they did is not DCA.

Both of them are investments but they should be patient because of which they will get profit. If we invest in Bitcoin with DCA, we can gradually see the price and take profit, but to invest all at once, we have to do a good analysis, only then we can buy good Bitcoin at a low price and for that we have to wait a long time, then only we will get profit. Those who have waited so long may have to wait even longer because the price of Bitcoin is not very happy, so it will take a long time. The investor will have to be more patient and think so that after waiting so long, if they definitely get profit.