A bettor loses $55k on "Guaranteed" Bet on Jannik Sinner in the French Open

[Get-Paid.com]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

[ralle14]

For those who took him pre-live, that's a crazy bad beat. From one game away to closing out the match 3-0 to getting reverse swept with ease is an insane collapse. That goes to show even the best of the best can crumble as well, and I agree the heat is no joke at this time of the season.

If i'm in their shoes, I might've cashed and cut my losses while watching because there were surely some issues after he only got 1 game in set 4.

[Dave1]

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

And if I'm not mistaken, Jannik Sinner is like top 1 or 2 in the rankings, him and Carlos Alcaraz has swap places as the best tennis player right now.

So it's really hard to imagine that after that score, he will lose not just that set, but the whole match inside. Maybe in basketball here, Sinner is leading my 30+ points in the first half. But then collapsed in the last 2 quarters.

Yeah, probably black swan event that rarely happen in tennis and this could be the talks of the tennis world right now and for this year as the biggest upset.

[yhiaali3]

This is a truly insane gamble. risking $55,000 for a potential $1,000 win is sheer madness!! it means you have put yourself in the worst possible risk equation. Odds 1.01 mean that any small mistake or injury or heatstroke or momentary physical collapse (like what happened to Sinner ) would be enough to lose all your entire capital.

He should have avoided low odds or at least used hedging when Cerundolo's odds reached 800–1000 or exited early at the first sign of fatigue. What he did was an ill-advised gamble.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

What do you guys think about it?

These things happen. It’s not the first thread we’ve seen with a similar story. Personally, I think it’s rather silly to risk 55 to win 1 on a sports bet, however certain the outcome might seem at first glance. I usually do exactly the opposite. I bet 1 to win at least 3 (with much less money). Sometimes, with spare cash, I bet to win 10 or more. I don’t mind if I don’t win; if I do win, I enjoy the prize.

[Julien_Olynpic]

This is a truly insane gamble. risking $55,000 for a potential $1,000 win is sheer madness!! it means you have put yourself in the worst possible risk equation. Odds 1.01 mean that any small mistake or injury or heatstroke or momentary physical collapse (like what happened to Sinner ) would be enough to lose all your entire capital.

He should have avoided low odds or at least used hedging when Cerundolo's odds reached 800–1000 or exited early at the first sign of fatigue. What he did was an ill-advised gamble.

Betting on low-odds events is always insane. It's absurd to try to win pennies when the stakes are thousands of dollars. It appears Sinner suffered some kind of acute illness, perhaps dizziness related to a temporary cerebrovascular accident, which his opponent exploited. This demonstrates how ephemeral the favorites' victories are. Anyone can get sick, just as anyone can take advantage of a favorite's illness.

[Get-Paid.com]

Betting on low-odds events is always insane. It's absurd to try to win pennies when the stakes are thousands of dollars. It appears Sinner suffered some kind of acute illness, perhaps dizziness related to a temporary cerebrovascular accident, which his opponent exploited. This demonstrates how ephemeral the favorites' victories are. Anyone can get sick, just as anyone can take advantage of a favorite's illness.

It was the heat, his body is not taking it well.
It happened in Australia and they closed the roof because of it but not here in Paris.

Rain will definitely cause a delay in tennis and both players would stop, heat though - not so fast ☀️☀️☀️

[leea-1334]

That equates to 1.02x and super dumb, but what do you expect from these dumbass influencers? Worse is to follow them and talk about their crap,,, because that thing will rot your brain OP

The only way I ever put 1.01 or whatever is when I need to make my bet qualify for something, such as, like,,, when I need to make freebets and I only have 1 selection but the requirements need 2 selections 

[Cointxz]

That equates to 1.02x and super dumb, but what do you expect from these dumbass influencers? Worse is to follow them and talk about their crap,,, because that thing will rot your brain OP

The only way I ever put 1.01 or whatever is when I need to make my bet qualify for something, such as, like,,, when I need to make freebets and I only have 1 selection but the requirements need 2 selections 

Yeah right! There’s nothing to gain with that kind of odds especially if it’s just a prematch. I might consider it only if that offer was during 2-0 already via live while I’m just betting for the sake of grinding my VIP level.

There’s a lot of fair offer on different matches. I don’t know why people still risk money on much that has little to gain while there’s still risk involved of losing everything on upset matches.

[swogerino]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

The classic case where even odds like that can make you lose the game. For me it is not the heat of Paris but maybe more sinister forces that underground impact the outcome and that is why I have been saying many times here in the forum that sports is not the same compared to pre 2000 era where gambling was not massive. I can correlate to this loss, of course I never bet 55000 dollars as that is half of an apartment where I live yet I have lost with 1.04 odds in basketball where first place lost to last place in the standings.

[stompix]

Reminds me of Doom
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2023-09-05/ripon/racecard/756485/william-hill-ripon-champion-bonus-2023-maiden-fillies-stakes-gbb-race

One quarter million horse with a pedigree of champions, sent 1.04 in the race with a single opponent, the prize money were 1% of the price of the horse.
Favorite was in front for almost all of the race, was 1.002 before the last furlong, lost.

£407,000 of the £451,000 matched on the Betfair Exchange on the race was on the 1/25 favourite, who also burnt the fingers of in-running punters after £11,000 was matched at 1.01 during the race.

 

[Charles-Tim]

This is happening very well in sport. It is noticable just because it is lawn tennis.

If you try and be checking the odds in just football, you will see matches that you think have high chance of winning but the strong team lose to the weak team.

What I am implying is that there is not guaranteed bet until the matches has ended.

[ryzaadit]

Feels bads, that's amount of money are being chase like 1,000$

Could be very easy and faster in casino game, he bet not even reached at least 10%. If you bet high enough like these, please at least make it 10% from the amount you're bad. These is very bad decision ~lol.

Feels really bads for him.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Also reminds me of this: Gambler loses massive $1.4 million bet on Chargers-Jaguars game.

One bettor wasted a massive $1.4 million wager after betting on Los Angeles before the Jaguars mounted an epic comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30.

And compare to the bet, this is huge for this one bettor.

So I guess it implied that there is no guarantee in sports betting, not even that 1.01x.

[mindrust]

He made a bet and he lost. There is no such thing as "guaranteed bet" in gambling unless you are doing arbitrage betting. There is also that EV betting strategy which pays the player in the long run but that's not instant guaranteed bet neither. Unless the player in OP hedged/arbitraged his bet, he will have to take that 55k usd loss and learn a lesson from it. It is a very expensive lesson though. I would rather prefer to learn $100 lessons from gambling. They teach almost the same thing for a much cheaper price.

[rdluffy]

These bets with low odds, supposedly "guaranteed," have this risk
When you're on the outside, it seems like it never happens, but when you've been betting for a while, you know that these events happen all the time

In my opinion, it's a big mistake to risk so much to win so little
Unless the bettor's bankroll is very high, hehehe, but even then, 55k to win 1k doesn't seem good at all

[Junii]

That guy sent a hawk after a sparrow and still ended up losing the sky . This is how during gambling emotions affect the decisions . On paper it looks like a done deal . This is where peoples stop seeing risks and seeing free money . This is the harsh truth of live betting . If we see at the at the game initially sinners at 1.01 odds this was like 2 sets are already in the bag at that point many greedy peoples dont looks it like a bet anymore they seeing it as a free money . That is where the famous illusion of certainty peaks and peoples tooks unnecessary decisions that turns into frustration and stress. Thats why in betting no doubt specially in sports betting analysis is necessary but whats more important then analysis is command over emotions .

[salad daging]

Losing $55,000 seems small when you look at this news, a thread created by bitbollo, someone lost $1.4M with odds of 1.01x.
Gambler Loses 1.4 million USD in a bet with lower than 1.01 odds!

There are times when a gambler is unlucky even if the odds are small 1.01x so never bet a lot of money because small odds do not guarantee anything, while in sports anything can happen even if the odds are far different from the underdog team.

Instead of gaining profit, lose the entire bankroll in one ticket.

[Alpha Marine]

He is not a good gambler in my opinion. I saw another one that lost over $1 millio. Or I guess that is the way rich people bet, I don't know. It makes no sense to me why you would risk $55k to win just $1k. How does that make sense to anybody? Your potential win is nowhere near your stake, so if you lose, you're losing all that money for nothing.
If it were a 2 odds bet and he staked 55k to win about 100k+, I would understand, but staking on a 1.01 odds? What for exactly? I can't even put my $10 into an odd like that. I would rather not bet. If an odd is not up to 1.5, I usually don't bet on it because I see it as a waste of time. I might lose money and even if I win, I won't win anything significant, relative to my stake. So it's not worth.
But when it's from 1.5 odds to 2 odds, I can expect to get doubt of my stake with that, so it might be worth it.

[KTChampions]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

First of all, I think that the quotes 1.01 against 26 are a robbery  The tails are chopped off on both sides - 1.01 is too low for an event that could very well happen simply due to injury, and 26 is too low due to the balance of power. Otherwise, there is nothing unusual, the favorites regularly lose (not in the sense that it happens often, but that it inevitably happens 1 in 100 games or less often/more often). And there are always those who bet on a "reliable" outcome and lose serious money for pennies.