A bettor loses $55k on "Guaranteed" Bet on Jannik Sinner in the French Open

[LUCKMCFLY]

There are lots of manipulation in gambling and trying to make profits after you have stake huge amounts on a match will not change the outcome. Most of the big games are manipulated and trying to win can look uneasy because the people that the fixed the match also want to make big money from gambling.

The difficult thing about it is knowing which side is being manipulated. This kind of thing always happens; if there's someone who knows that privileged information, it's a very closed circle of few people. But really, it's something I don't like. Every bet should be legal from the point of view of not being rigged or doing things like that, although nowadays it happens a lot.

[Lida93]

Guaranteed? from that reading it only shows how confident this bettor is. That won't give an easy pass to win because even in the lowest odd, there's no guarantee with that because the risk remains with that. There are still a lot of bettors that would definitely bet on low odds as 1.01 even with a million dollars but that's not a safe and guarantee bet. We all know about that and if someone who's too attracted to bet on these odds need to think a lot first.

There are lots of manipulation in gambling and trying to make profits after you have stake huge amounts on a match will not change the outcome. Most of the big games are manipulated and trying to win can look uneasy because the people that the fixed the match also want to make big money from gambling.

The problem in being too confident about a game either through the source or by the looks of the odd size, is that, you can go all in without even thinking that you're taking a very wayward stupid risk that without any glimpse of reasoning behind it except that you're just confident it would play, and for that, you must have to take huge advantage of the opportunity to win something big from it while you can.

[nimogsm]

Guaranteed? from that reading it only shows how confident this bettor is. That won't give an easy pass to win because even in the lowest odd, there's no guarantee with that because the risk remains with that. There are still a lot of bettors that would definitely bet on low odds as 1.01 even with a million dollars but that's not a safe and guarantee bet. We all know about that and if someone who's too attracted to bet on these odds need to think a lot first.

There's always a risk; the game can always go wrong, even when it seems like victory is inevitable. Betting $1 million on odds of 1.01 is foolish, to say the least, since the risk won't justify the investment; the profit will be minimal and clearly not worth it. I doubt people with that kind of capital would take such risks if they had enough experience to earn it and enough experience not to lose it instantly.

[Betwrong]

There was a case a couple of years ago where a guy bet $1,000,000 on a team that everyone "knew" would win, and that's why the odds were 1.01. He probably thought, "That's $10k just lying on the ground. Why not pick it up?" The game ended in a draw, and he lost his million.

The guy probably has not read that story because if he did, I don’t think he would make that kind of stupid bet.  

Well, it is understandable that we have comments now because the bet lost. But if that bet had won, maybe some people would praise him for having the balls to take a big risk for a very low reward. That is how gambling reactions usually work. When you lose, people call it stupid, but when you win, they call it brave.

I wouldn't be one of them, that's for sure. In my opinion, it's not about "having the balls" at all. If you risk big amount to potentially win a very low reward, I can't find any other words for you except "stupid". I know in sports betting it happens often when people stake $100 in order to win $10, and, pf course, they often win too, but I personally would feel very bad in the case losing a bet with 1.10 odds, so, I don't want to even risk getting that experience.

[sokani]

There was a time I came across a bet slip that was posted online, where a bettor placed $2000 on a match with 1.10 odds, which he lost, and I thought that was the craziest bet I had ever seen. However, reading about this user's case, I don't even know what to say. Risking $55k in a quest to win $1000, is absolutely madness. I just hope the amount he lost is what he can afford to lose, and even at that, I want to believe the loss will hunt him for a long time.

[libert19]

This kind of gambling stuff should be posted in this sub regularly, should be rewarded with merit too, not a single soul given it one? WTF (I'll give it when I get one). Anyway on topic, this is precisely why people should be wary about the amount they are risking rather than what they think to be a 'guaranteed win'.

...

This world guarantees to kill many in bets like these because a few years back, while the Cricket World Cup was played, one better sold his home for a bet like this because he was sure it was going to be free money, but at the end, he lost the bet and committed suicide. Always be careful about betting and risk management.

Cricket world cup took my attention. Mind sharing full story?

[Fortify]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

Well no bet is guaranteed and if you look at it another way, there will be many bookmakers that paid out massive amounts on any bets that were taken with 26x odds - it wouldn't be surprising if they lost more than they had coming in. For this individual, who must be rich if they can so flippantly drop $50k bets with such meagre returns, kind deserves this outcome to be fair. There is no such thing as a guaranteed bet, otherwise it's not a bet, these are black and white outcomes on an event with a reward at the end of it. There's no winning 20% of a bet or losing 50% of a bet, at least in most scenarios that wildly swing towards the underdog, it happens almost instantaneously and rarely swings back the other way.

[Betwrong]

This kind of gambling stuff should be posted in this sub regularly, should be rewarded with merit too, not a single soul given it one? WTF (I'll give it when I get one). Anyway on topic, this is precisely why people should be wary about the amount they are risking rather than what they think to be a 'guaranteed win'.
~

That's what I'm thinking too. The first thing a bettor should be considering is not the win chance, but the amount he/she is betting. It should be an amount that is not critical to them because any bet could be lost and shouldn't be a disaster to them. Also, I like the fact that you are going to merit OP when you have smerit. I hope you will not forget about it.

[Salahmu]

There was a time I came across a bet slip that was posted online, where a bettor placed $2000 on a match with 1.10 odds, which he lost, and I thought that was the craziest bet I had ever seen. However, reading about this user's case, I don't even know what to say. Risking $55k in a quest to win $1000, is absolutely madness. I just hope the amount he lost is what he can afford to lose, and even at that, I want to believe the loss will hunt him for a long time.

It was a reckless gambling risk, using big amount to pursue money that's within 3.7% of their staking power, actually there has been an abuse of low odd strategy gambling because is a way most people believe to be nicer than high odds but instead of going with an amount that shouldn't be much but some stake with too much amount, actually I have been gambling with this kind of odds a lot but since I no that low odds are not kept as a guaranteed purpose I mostly use the money that matches the risk. Actually even if emotional control is something a lot people have but losing $55k one could loss there mind if is only what they have.

[davis196]

This is a truly insane gamble. risking $55,000 for a potential $1,000 win is sheer madness!! it means you have put yourself in the worst possible risk equation. Odds 1.01 mean that any small mistake or injury or heatstroke or momentary physical collapse (like what happened to Sinner ) would be enough to lose all your entire capital.

He should have avoided low odds or at least used hedging when Cerundolo's odds reached 800–1000 or exited early at the first sign of fatigue. What he did was an ill-advised gamble.

It's not madness, at least not in a gambler's mind. Extremely low odds like 1.01 are considered "safe" by almost all sports bettors.
Would you put 1000 dollars, if you knew that you are guaranteed to win 100 dollars? Probably yes. And what about 50K dollars?
It's like betting big amounts of crypto to 1.01x on a crash game at the crypto casino and losing everything. Shit happens...
The guy, who lost this 55K bet is probably rich enough to afford such loss. Yes, this is a "black swan" event. Nothing is guaranteed in life. Odds like 1.01 means that it was highly unlikely for Sinner to lose the game, but he did lose the game. I was never really a fan of Jannik Sinner, maybe the forbidden stimulants he's using have had a bad side effect on him.

[viljy]

What can you think? An accident? Intent? It is impossible to find out the truth. The only fact is that there are no guaranteed bets. Probability is not equivalent to a guarantee. And it's a shame to lose such a bet. In general, this is a fairly common strategy among bettors - to place large bets with a high chance in order to win a significant amount (due to the size of the bet) with almost no risk. But there is always a risk. And you can lose the entire bankroll instantly, which may have accumulated for a long time from winnings on such bets.

[Haunebu]

Damn! Alcaraz pulling out of the tournament dropped my interest and Sinner losing like this made me lose all interest. Thing that gamblers need to understand is that there is no such thing as guaranteed or sure bets unless you arb or something.

Have seen gamblers lose way bigger amounts betting on 1.01 odds frankly speaking which is many hate such low odds. Better to stick to 1.5 odds or higher instead.

[Wakate]

Guaranteed? from that reading it only shows how confident this bettor is. That won't give an easy pass to win because even in the lowest odd, there's no guarantee with that because the risk remains with that. There are still a lot of bettors that would definitely bet on low odds as 1.01 even with a million dollars but that's not a safe and guarantee bet. We all know about that and if someone who's too attracted to bet on these odds need to think a lot first.

There's always a risk; the game can always go wrong, even when it seems like victory is inevitable. Betting $1 million on odds of 1.01 is foolish, to say the least, since the risk won't justify the investment; the profit will be minimal and clearly not worth it. I doubt people with that kind of capital would take such risks if they had enough experience to earn it and enough experience not to lose it instantly.

People that don't understand the risk in gambling are the ones that could be thinking of how to make big amount of money from gambling when it's very hard to make profits in reality. I don't do more than I can take which is why I gamble based on what I can lose as a gambler. Any amount that is know will pain me if I lose it to gambling, I will not use it to gamble.

[boyptc]

Other stories of betting high amount to risk high and win smaller amounts. That isn't how we're going to gamble.

It's not worth it.

I've seen the same stories like they've bet for $1M to win $10k and that's a lot of risk.

The small odds doesn't make it risk free but that huge amount makes it higher to take that shouldn't be.

[macson]

He actually said this LOL

So don't be arrogant before you win. He truly felt like he was certain of victory, but because of his arrogance, he forgot that there's no such thing as a guaranteed win in betting. All bets carry the risk of losing, no matter how good the team or person you support is, but that still doesn't guarantee a guaranteed win. I'm sure he'll remember this loss forever, and it might humble him a little.

[Cantsay]

There was a time I came across a bet slip that was posted online, where a bettor placed $2000 on a match with 1.10 odds, which he lost, and I thought that was the craziest bet I had ever seen. However, reading about this user's case, I don't even know what to say. Risking $55k in a quest to win $1000, is absolutely madness. I just hope the amount he lost is what he can afford to lose, and even at that, I want to believe the loss will hunt him for a long time.

There are so many slips you would see online, and you'd start to wonder if those people even have a single brain cell or if they are simply trying to show the world that they have money and they don't know what to do with the money.

Because tell me why you would bet two million naira just to win twenty thousand naira. If you are not careful, you will just end up being angry at people you don't even know.

[STT]

Thats unfortunate but also why you have to be aware of live events  and disruption to the bias, temperature can totally shut someone down if they cannot get cool enough you can literally pass out at worst, even applies to a healthy sportsman.  

I tend to take underdog bets and this kind of example shows why that can be the better value proposition and involves way less capital for your bet.  Considering I can get distracted by real life I prefer the lower risk capital involvement even if it is a long shot often.  

The final point I'd make is obvious, the risk from the opponent cannot be dismissed.  IF its the final, the design of the system is to present two players either of which has the skills to win and is not just lucky to get there but very much deserves it and poses a serious risk of defeat to their opponent.
  The match up is boring to watch when you already know who will win, it makes for poor viewing figures when there is no real contest in play.   For that reason, its lazy to try and switch off your brain and use arrogance to presume who wins; we have to consider either person as equally capable as the base case before then adding our own judgement etc.

  Walk your judgement up the hill to a conclusion, don't drive to the top and rush your decision with no effort taken.    I know this is an article about an upset but I love that someone out there took the underdog bet and won the lottery in effect.

[nelson4lov]

He actually said this LOL

So don't be arrogant before you win. He truly felt like he was certain of victory, but because of his arrogance, he forgot that there's no such thing as a guaranteed win in betting. All bets carry the risk of losing, no matter how good the team or person you support is, but that still doesn't guarantee a guaranteed win. I'm sure he'll remember this loss forever, and it might humble him a little.

Serves him right. As someone who has played multiple bets with 1.01 to 1.10and higher odds bets, I can say I've seen it all and even 1.01 odds being offered sometimes are never a guarantee. Sure, the probability of winning is high but there is always a possibility of an upset and I try to factor that in.

Low lines in betting doesn't always translate to guaranteed wins. It almost always only means that the bet has a higher probability of winner but never guaranteed.

Hopefully he learns his lesson and start treating every bet regardless of the odds as what they are— a gamble.

[mv1986]

So this guy bet $55k on Sinner to win $1000

https://brobible.com/sports/article/bettor-loses-55k-jannik-sinner-french-open/
https://x.com/FoaznPoker/status/2059810152048468228

Sinner won 2-0 in the first 2 sets, needs one more set to win.
He goes 5-1 in the third set, at that time according to some reports the odds on Cerundolo were 800-900 in the betting exchange BetFair (maybe even 1000 at 1 peak point, hard to check it going back)....

He lost the set, and the match!

The odds on Cerundolo were 1.57 beginning of 5th set, if you were able to "read" what's happening - it might be hard to bet against the world no. 1 but he just couldn't cope with the heat in Paris.

Prematch odds were 1.01 on Sinner vs 26.00 on Cerundolo on Bet365. Exchange had even more generous odds than that.

This is a black swan event, literally.

What do you guys think about it?

When people make a bet like that, it is probably not only about the $1,000, but about reaching certain wagering goals. If it was done for the $1,000 alone, it is an insane risk to take. Yes normally Sinner would never lose it, but when you can afford a $55,000 bet, it can't be for those $1,000. I couldn't believe that Sinner wasn't able to reach that one more game he needed. At 1-5 from the point of view of Cerundulo, you must be thinking that Sinner is joking around. It is interesting how quickly the bookmakers made Cerundulo a favourite because they noticed that Sinner is done. Nobody was sure though whether a break would get him back on track. I have never seen something like that before. An injury yes of course, but he fell apart within seconds and couldn't play anymore. It wasn't that anybody thought this is possible when he had 5-1 lead and as @ralle14 said, I can't imagine how awful it must have been for those who places bets pre-live, probably switched off the TV so to say and thought it is a 100% safe win and then you suddenly read the news or so. That must be a horrible feeling. I wonder whether that guy will ever place a 55k bet for 1k again

[terrific]

It is already 2026 and we're gamblers. We know that there's no "guaranteed" bet in this world.
All we get is odds, chances and risks. With all of that, none can secure a guaranteed bet.
But I'm admiring his courage and bravery for doing that. I may not have that much to bet for such believed guy but I'll never take that so much risk even if I am a fanatic of an athlete or whoever or a team.