Why are you delusional, lol

[xenomorfo]

So this topic is made as a result of my personal experience, and I have no doubt that alot more people has experience the same situation, so I will try to correct it to those that will acknowledge.

Have you ever been delusional in sports betting? Most will agree, while most have but unknowingly to them.
This is not just about football, but I will use football to illustrate. Now you have a match like PSG vs ARSENAL (last season performance only), And honestly you know clearly that PSG has a higher chance of winning, why don't you just bet them to win?
You try to hope that Arsenal will win, I know it's a game of luck, but atleast you can make it less luck and more skill this is how we win in long a term gambling. If these 2 clubs play 10 matches PSG will win most most of the matches and they will loose less, there for if you bet them to win always on similar matches because you know they are better, (exclude emotions) do you know you will be winning long term gambling. Now arsenal will win sometimes in those 10 matches, but not most of the times, and your target in betting should be most of the Times.

Some time we let emotions do the gamble, we refuse to be strategic and that is what might be holding some spots bettors back. In the club world cup Chelsea won against PSG. But I placed the bet for PSG to win regardless of Chelsea being my club. I knew that out of numbers of matches PSG will win more so I choose to bet on them, but I lost the bet and it fine at least I was honest with my self.
Nevertheless I was still happy my club won

So series of matches, randomly, a big club vs a small club, a big boxer vs a small boxer, big wrestler vs small wrestler, (not literal small or big) a this vs a that, you know who has the higher chance of winning JUST BET ON THEM ! You may not win at that moment but you will on a long term 

I understand why you're disappointed, basically because you lost.
I'm not a football expert but i can give you some advice, take the bet lightly, like a game as a pastime and only put in the money you can afford to lose.
This way you'll see, you won't care much.

[rachael9385]

People who would place to such a risky bet would do it just because of club loyalty. A lot of arsenal fans placed a bet on arsenal to win knowing that the game would be difficult because psg has more advantage but they did it based on the hope they have and when it comes to sports betting it's better to be realistic than begin hopeful.

[swogerino]

Well most people would agree that betting on Arsenal in that game was very risky. I did bet on them though as I fancied a win of the Champions again in England where football has been invented. Of course it was a lost bet but it was only lost with penalties and it kept my hopes alive until the very end. These are normally emotional bets which are not recommended as they can make the person using them lose a really huge amount of money if logic is overwritten by emotions when betting.

[348Judah]

Some time we let emotions do the gamble, we refuse to be strategic and that is what might be holding some spots bettors back.

We are bound to have such feelings as gamblers, but a mature Gambler will know how to be able to maneuver his way and try to take the rest decision whenever such feelings arises, the choice will make matters most here and this is why we have to be more disciplined in gambling because not everything we see we must go for, emotional control is very important in gambling so as to avoid any unnecessary condition that may affect us later by our decision taken.

[michellee]

You need to be careful with your emotions, that can be tricky to you. You will not follow your analysis but listening to your emotions and place in a wrong team. But for win on a long term, that will not be easy as gambling is not designed to gives easy win to you and casino don't want happening too often.

But if you are difficult to choose between two teams, you could leaves the match and watch it without bet. That will be better as you do not lose your money.

[Porfirii]

So series of matches, randomly, a big club vs a small club, a big boxer vs a small boxer, big wrestler vs small wrestler, (not literal small or big) a this vs a that, you know who has the higher chance of winning JUST BET ON THEM ! You may not win at that moment but you will on a long term 

Betting on favorites constantly might be a good strategy in gambling. At least you would be sure that you will win most of the bets. But the problem with this style is that favorites always have small odds. If you keep placing bets on them because you want to take less risk, you will keep winning pennies. Don't get me wrong, I sometimes bet on teams that have higher chances of winning the game. But I also like taking higher risks; if I am lucky, it might lead to a big win. Sometimes, the money I make from a single bet on a lowly placed team is higher than the amount I have won betting on favorites for several months.

That's the key. Even if you win 10 bets for matches where the favourite team wins, if the odds are 1.10 for example, it only takes one loss to lose all the money you won in the previous matches. Odds are calculated in a way that it doesn't really matter too much whether you bet on the favourite or the other, in the long run the chances of success tend to a break-even point of zero minus a small house edge.

[Sticky Bomb]

What? Sure, if you bet on favorites, you will likely win but odds should be reflecting the same as well, and you won't be making much with your winning bets while every dog has it's a day, and underdog should be winning a few games each tourney and whatever little profits that you may have had betting favorites will likely disappear with those underdog wins.

The example he used doesn't really have a direct relationship in having obvious favorites, there was elements of doubt in their play patterns even though PSG looked like the favorite and could win more games, there was also some considerations to be made that Arsenal has been unbeaten since the competition of reflection which makes them no underdog. Arsenal has a stronger defense than PSG  and good strikers while PSG has better Midfielders and good strikers as well, so it strikes some sort of balance and confusions tend to arise. Some stats seems to doubt some obvious predictions based on what you instinctively know and calls for more discretion. I placed that game BTS since I was not sure of any of them winning and got some light rewards for my troubles in analyzing.

[Alex077]

You can't simply know how the results of a bet turn out even if you try to remove emotions from the equation because both teams or individuals have the mindset to win so bad but could be limited by experience or tactics of which we can't see or know about...

I think fans overestimate the chances of their favorite team or player because they look at the situation emotionally instead of objectively.
And I really shure that statistics from previous matches don’t always show the full picture. They definitely help you make a better prediction, but there are just too many variables in sports: the current form of the players, injuries, motivation, tactical changes, mental condition, and sometimes just pure randomness.
That’s why analysis should not only be based on past results but also on the current situation.
In my opinion, the biggest advantage of this approach is not that it guarantees a win, but that it creates discipline. When a bet is based on analysis instead of emotions, it becomes much easier to accept any outcome and avoid impulsive decisions like trying to quickly win back losses after a bad result.

[alegotardo]

The big problem for any gambler is controll their emotions and not letting them override rationality. This applies to everything... how much bet and when stop, your favorite team against the one with the highest probability of winning... it is always a battle between emotion and statistics. Whoever knowhow to keep each in its place is usually the one who succeeds in betting.

But one thing that I do not agree with you is that the gambler's objective is win more than lose... sometimes just winning more is not enough because even if you win ten and lose one, that single loss can wipe out all your profits.

So I would put it a little differently: in addition to winning more than you lose, you need to know how manage your bankroll and bet less money on those with lower chances of winning.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I don't completely agree that this is a thing of delusion, every bettor has his or her own way of doing analysis and if the bettor is unbiased in their analysis, they will definitely bet on the team that has the high chance of winning the game without minding if it's favorite team or. Opposite team unless the person just voluntarily wanted to just lose their money, but if the person did theor analysis well, they will definitely bet on the team that aligned with their analysis.

[KiaKia]

Well most people would agree that betting on Arsenal in that game was very risky. I did bet on them though as I fancied a win of the Champions again in England where football has been invented. Of course it was a lost bet but it was only lost with penalties and it kept my hopes alive until the very end. These are normally emotional bets which are not recommended as they can make the person using them lose a really huge amount of money if logic is overwritten by emotions when betting.

I truly wished for arsenal to take the lead, I hoped for them to win just this once and shut a lot of people up for a very long time, those hated on them are getting too much but still I went for PSG, I don't even use any analysis or data.

Imagine placing bet on PSG and wanting arsenal to win? That's because I risked small money but I know what could have possibly happen in the end, I don't allow my emotions to get the best of me, but I believe it's all because I was comfortable with losing the money.

I am no fans to any side, I just lose staying in between and enjoying these matches, it's easier to predict things when you aren't taking no one's side, I don't know if someone feels this way too.

[Pandu Geddon]

Some gamblers might not think about such a long-term betting plan. You see some matches that are going to start, and you will pick a few games that day for your bets. We can choose the favored teams. Let's say there are 10 winning bets for the favorite teams, there will certainly still be some winning bets, not all will lose. But some bettors sometimes accumulate them into one betting slip and hope for a bigger return. That is what causes many bettors to lose.

[Fortify]

So this topic is made as a result of my personal experience, and I have no doubt that alot more people has experience the same situation, so I will try to correct it to those that will acknowledge.

Have you ever been delusional in sports betting? Most will agree, while most have but unknowingly to them.
This is not just about football, but I will use football to illustrate. Now you have a match like PSG vs ARSENAL (last season performance only), And honestly you know clearly that PSG has a higher chance of winning, why don't you just bet them to win?
You try to hope that Arsenal will win, I know it's a game of luck, but atleast you can make it less luck and more skill this is how we win in long a term gambling. If these 2 clubs play 10 matches PSG will win most most of the matches and they will loose less, there for if you bet them to win always on similar matches because you know they are better, (exclude emotions) do you know you will be winning long term gambling. Now arsenal will win sometimes in those 10 matches, but not most of the times, and your target in betting should be most of the Times.

Some time we let emotions do the gamble, we refuse to be strategic and that is what might be holding some spots bettors back. In the club world cup Chelsea won against PSG. But I placed the bet for PSG to win regardless of Chelsea being my club. I knew that out of numbers of matches PSG will win more so I choose to bet on them, but I lost the bet and it fine at least I was honest with my self.
Nevertheless I was still happy my club won

So series of matches, randomly, a big club vs a small club, a big boxer vs a small boxer, big wrestler vs small wrestler, (not literal small or big) a this vs a that, you know who has the higher chance of winning JUST BET ON THEM ! You may not win at that moment but you will on a long term 

Delusional is an unnecessarily emotive term, after all some of the biggest wins that you'll see are those where you bet on the underdog and they go on to win. Nobody is really making big money from sticking with safe bets all the time (except for the bookmaker of course). When a certain player or team have a solid track record of winning, the odds when betting on them can be so low that people simply don't bother to bet, unless you support the team and were going to do it anyway. People gamble to make big money, so they often avoid the safest bets out there like the examples that you give - what's the point in winning $12 dollars when you risk $10? It's the fundamental basis of gambling for most.

[Satofan44]

Have you ever been delusional in sports betting? Most will agree, while most have but unknowingly to them.
This is not just about football, but I will use football to illustrate. Now you have a match like PSG vs ARSENAL (last season performance only), And honestly you know clearly that PSG has a higher chance of winning, why don't you just bet them to win?
You try to hope that Arsenal will win, I know it's a game of luck, but atleast you can make it less luck and more skill this is how we win in long a term gambling. If these 2 clubs play 10 matches PSG will win most most of the matches and they will loose less, there for if you bet them to win always on similar matches because you know they are better, (exclude emotions) do you know you will be winning long term gambling. Now arsenal will win sometimes in those 10 matches, but not most of the times, and your target in betting should be most of the Times.

Betting on the favorite and reading basic stats is not "skill". The "skill" would be to figure out or estimate at which match up the underdog would prevail, in this case Arsenal. Anyone who knows basic math can read the stats of these teams and look at odds to figure out who the favorite is and bet on that favorite. Is that a skill? No. Is that entertaining? Also no unless you are a very boring person.

Some time we let emotions do the gamble, we refuse to be strategic and that is what might be holding some spots bettors back. In the club world cup Chelsea won against PSG. But I placed the bet for PSG to win regardless of Chelsea being my club. I knew that out of numbers of matches PSG will win more so I choose to bet on them, but I lost the bet and it fine at least I was honest with my self.
Nevertheless I was still happy my club won

Betting on the expected winner is not really a strategy. It is simply a "going with the crowd" approach while the actual delusion here is that doing this means that you have some sort of skill.

So series of matches, randomly, a big club vs a small club, a big boxer vs a small boxer, big wrestler vs small wrestler, (not literal small or big) a this vs a that, you know who has the higher chance of winning JUST BET ON THEM ! You may not win at that moment but you will on a long term 

We have established in other threads with members like @Yahoo that favorites are the most common trap by bookies and it is exactly where the majority of average people lose their money. They are doing what you say should be done, and they are regularly losing because the "favorite" ends up losing when they expect it not to.

[Pumared]

I believe this issue is more related to the bettor's emotion. He will see the odds for both teams and completely ignore PSG's odds, as they will be the lowest, since they are the favorites. Meanwhile, the opponent's odds will be much higher and more attractive. So he will tend to bet on the higher odds. Ideally, the bettor should analyze without looking at the odds and only after a strategic analysis should he place the bet without looking at the odds.

[Crakryptvest]

People who would place to such a risky bet would do it just because of club loyalty. A lot of arsenal fans placed a bet on arsenal to win knowing that the game would be difficult because psg has more advantage but they did it based on the hope they have and when it comes to sports betting it's better to be realistic than begin hopeful.

Was it about hope when it comes to arsenal fans on that match? I don't think so, it was more of emotional bet or betting based on sentiment, people should resist such method of gambling, it will better if I don't gamble on a match at all than to gamble because my favorite is to face a team I know very well that's better than them, however, gambling is risky but it becomes over risky when we gamble based of sentiment, when  we want to bet, the team most current form should always be considered before we take our final stance of our bet.

[crwth]

Well, we shouldn't really blame people who want to bet on their favorite team just to support them. Maybe it's their way to make themselves feel like they are actually supporting their favorite team.

Maybe, if they continue and just gamble all they can afford to lose, in time they might reach the limit, the short term turns into the long term, and then you would win.
^{(There's nothing sure in gambling unless you are a cheater)}

[Hatchy]

So this topic is made as a result of my personal experience, and I have no doubt that alot more people has experience the same situation, so I will try to correct it to those that will acknowledge.

Well I don't think everyone would reason it that way. Alot of people prefers betting on their favourite team as a means of support to them. We saw how the stadium was filled with more arsenal teams on that day compared to that of psg. The issue was the hype on arsenal was too much so I guess many people were blinded from the truth and just wanted arsenal to win at all cost. Even with a few analysis it was very obvious that psg had the upper leg, but everyone but those who were not fans of arsenal would have picked a bet on arsenal because the hype would have been a good reason for them to win. We just have to sometime seperate our emotions from reality and do what's right..

[nimogsm]

People who would place to such a risky bet would do it just because of club loyalty. A lot of arsenal fans placed a bet on arsenal to win knowing that the game would be difficult because psg has more advantage but they did it based on the hope they have and when it comes to sports betting it's better to be realistic than begin hopeful.

No matter how much I don't like my club, if it plays against a stronger club, I'll bet on it because my club's chances are significantly lower; it's just a matter of dry calculation and no emotions.I'm already past the stage when I hoped and believed that a miracle was possible because for the sake of the fans, my favorite club would give 100% and take the victory, but no, the reality is completely different.

[Agbamoni]

Have you ever been delusional in sports betting? Most will agree, while most have but unknowingly to them.
This is not just about football, but I will use football to illustrate. Now you have a match like PSG vs ARSENAL (last season performance only), And honestly you know clearly that PSG has a higher chance of winning, why don't you just bet them to win?
You try to hope that Arsenal will win, I know it's a game of luck, but atleast you can make it less luck and more skill this is how we win in long a term gambling. If these 2 clubs play 10 matches PSG will win most most of the matches and they will loose less, there for if you bet them to win always on similar matches because you know they are better, (exclude emotions) do you know you will be winning long term gambling. Now arsenal will win sometimes in those 10 matches, but not most of the times, and your target in betting should be most of the Times.

Some teams dont allow the same opponent to beat them multiple times. Those teams learn from their first mistake, which makes the example pointless. When referring to PSG, use an underdog to compare multiple wins, not Arsenal. In 10 legs, Arsenal can win 8 times out of 10 while PSG will win 2. Because they are both big teams. However, I understand the point you are trying to make and sure, between a two teams where one has quality than the other, in long term the team with quality will won more games.