It seems like everyone is too confident about the 4-year cycle

[Akbarkoe]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

Every time I think like that since a long time ago Bitcoin continues to beat my thoughts, I don't know what to do with thoughts that look so realistic, because from a part of myself I also believe that the cycle is a game that will end but we will never know how this cycle pattern will end, or bitcoin can slap you very hard when bitcoin does the same thing again in this cycle even though the profit is not greater than the previous cycle from the lowest point it made.

[MarryWithBTC]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

I can confidently say and believe that we are in the bear market with the recent market down draw. Assuming this shake-off did not happen, I would still be skeptical about the 4-year cycle and its collapse. In this industry, a lot of things play roles such as;

Fundamentals;
Human psychology;
Technical Analysis;

Psychologically, the idea of 4-year cycle is deeply rooted in us, no matter what happens, it must still affect our behavior. Even if there's a central announcement that there's no longer 4-year cycle, must of us will psychologically not agree. So, it will take many years to convince people about the death of the 4-years market cycle. Meanwhile, it is not dead and it is not dying any moment.

[OgNasty]

I am confident that the sun will rise tomorrow. Not because I’ve studied the science to an extreme, but because I have seen it happen so many times before. You don’t need to know the science behind the halving and investor psychology to understand the four year cycle is a repeating fractal. You just have to open your eyes.

[jossiel]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

It has happened exactly as how it did with the 4 year cycle and that's why with the pattern that it has left, we believe that it will be the same.

But we're also open to the idea that the cycles might be broken by any catalyst and that's fine.

Because we're at this point that the price will continue to rise whether it will remain as cyclic and follows the pattern or not.

[Asiska02]

From the last cycle, some changes have already being spotted different from the past cycles on how the market use to transgress before, this still doesn’t stop us from having a full conviction of the market to still achieve its aim. The more bitcoins liveth, the more less we see a perfect cycle like it should, and I think this is not something to bother much about because the conditions now to which the market is trailing on now are far more different than it was several years ago when it was still at its early years of inception. We won’t be having a perfect 4 year cycle forever, many things will change in that regard.

[Findingnemo]

Everyone seems convinced the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is guaranteed at this point. The more I read Bitcoin Twitter, Reddit, and YouTube, the more it feels like the cycle is treated as a fact rather than a theory. Historically, markets love making the majority look foolish.
What if this is the cycle where it breaks?

I’m not saying the cycle is dead or that Bitcoin won’t continue growing. I’m just wondering whether we’re putting too much faith in a pattern because it has worked before. P.S. This is my first post here, so apologies if I made any mistakes.

First of all, the 4 year cycle represents the bitcoin halving event not really the new ATH that is most people get confused. The bitcoin halving is pretty much guaranteed and the mining rewards will be halved for every 4 year cycle, though, and it also happens to be the price chart cycle follow the same trend but with a lot of surprises too. The new ATH is almost guaranteed thing after holding for complete 4 years but you ought to make sure you cashed out at the right time than waiting for too long.