My tests with AI and betting on the World Cup

[GiftedMAN]

Mexico just won against South Africa, so it's a great start to your betting journey. However, I'm still unsure whether this will be a successful betting journey, as there are so many possible outcomes. Even if you use a combination of AI and your own analysis, it still doesn't guarantee a profitable bet. But, it's certainly an interesting betting journey to follow, and I'm curious to see the final outcome, whether your bankroll will double or be wiped out.

Without using analysis and AI Mexico was the favourite team to win because losing the opening match for a host country is really not possible even though it can happen n football but from what the Op is trying out, it would have been more better if he decides to try all his games with AI and avoid doing more analysis so that if he succeeds in having good outcomes we can be sure that he got all the winning though the help of AI and not luck or his own analysis.

[colinistheman]

Just keeping it as your assistant and mixing it with your own sports knowledge could be a nice move

Just being 100% blind to the AI's wild prediction and pouring your money into it is too risky. Especially on World Cup, where the sky high pressure on every player, the emotions on field and the one-off moments can change the mood of the entire match in a flash. So, AI can be very useful in sifting through old reports and statistics at a glance.

But what is the current form of the player, what is the inside news or last minute team news or the coach's real tactical moves on field, these are the subtle things that should be found out before placing a bet, which AI cannot do. So, I will be keeping an eye out for your betting updates  

[rbynxx]

You posted these:

My tests with AI and betting on the World Cup

I've wanted to do some tests with AI for a while now, and now's the time to do it

So why this?

I won't make bets solely based on the AI's opinion, I'll use a mix of my analysis and the AI's

AI and human are involved, not only AI if you will not bet based on only AI analyses and predictions. But I guess the team that you will bet on would likely be what AI will also choose, but the outcome can be another thing.

i think the AI will pick it and he'll bet on that outcome but I think it will be great for those that watching this topic to have it live wherein we may need to see the AI's pick and then you just drop here the betslip for us to verify it. Well, that was a demanding thing to say but I think it's just for entertainment purposes only and simply for verifications. I don't know if that's doable but if it is, that would be awesome because others may tail or fade it while also dropping their bets here.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

I tried to used different LLMs to analyse for me some of the matches of the recently concluded Champions League, and most of the time all I can say is that, the predictions widely varied  

In fact, it's what made me completely lose interest in AI predictions for now. I would have as well just blindly guessed the match scores instead of using AI. Anyway, I am looking forward to the outcomes of the game.

[Hispo]

Just keeping it as your assistant and mixing it with your own sports knowledge could be a nice move

Just being 100% blind to the AI's wild prediction and pouring your money into it is too risky. Especially on World Cup, where the sky high pressure on every player, the emotions on field and the one-off moments can change the mood of the entire match in a flash. So, AI can be very useful in sifting through old reports and statistics at a glance.

But what is the current form of the player, what is the inside news or last minute team news or the coach's real tactical moves on field, these are the subtle things that should be found out before placing a bet, which AI cannot do. So, I will be keeping an eye out for your betting updates  

Op is actually doing something which a lot of bettors and gamblers are already doing with a lot of artificial intelligences and agents, using them to gather information and increase their chances to win money through information management instead of just pure luck.

Since Mexico won the opening of the world cup, this has been a good beginning for OP and his model, though this mixed model of one's own perception and AI information cannot be used to win consistent in the long term, it offers a slight advantage... No question about it, though, that is why there are so many people doing exactly the same thing and getting information from AIs.

Ironically, the day the AI is wrong and people do not do their proper analysis, that would result on millions of people to lose their money at the same time because they did not go beyond wherever the AI had to say to them.

[alegotardo]

AI and human are involved, not only AI if you will not bet based on only AI analyses and predictions. But I guess the team that you will bet on would likely be what AI will also choose, but the outcome can be another thing.

I think the OP's intention isn't purely to test whether AI is good at betting, because we already have that answer: it is not!

I believe the OP's intention is to use AI more as a research tool and see if it can provide information and predictions that would be more difficult to find in normal research, and then, with the information the AI ​​suggested, make a bet based on personal criteria, but purely based on the information the AI ​​gathered.

In other words, the question the OP is asking is: Is AI capable of guiding me to make good bets?

And that is right! That's the correct way to use AI.

[danadc]

I've seen that depending on what we do and how we ask the questions, the AI ​​is capable of giving us good answers, but they never go in the direction of prediction. However, if the right questions are asked, the AI ​​can give us answers that bring us closer to our more detailed analysis and help us make our prediction with much more accuracy. That's why I would use the AI.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I won't make bets solely based on the AI's opinion, I'll use a mix of my analysis and the AI's

I can use Chatgpt, Grok, and Perplexity, which are the ones I have available at the moment

Honestly, I think this would have been much more interesting if you had choosen to keep every single bet strictly based on Ai predictions and don't involve your own analysis and prediction at all, since as you said that this is nothing but a test, what are you testing? To see if it's possible to profit from sports betting with Ai predictions right.?

Adding your own Analysis and predictions completely defeats the real purpose and essence of running this test, your analysis and predictions makes this no longer a test but you betting on your own analysis to win money, only using the Ai as an assistant and nothing more, you gotta be true to yourself.

And speaking of the Mexico verse south Africa game, without Ai, anyone in their right sense should know that Mexico would win that match, though Ai still helped reveal some information even me myself wasn't aware of anyway and that's pretty good.

[Nrcewker]

I think this won’t work. AI is good at analysis. It can easily use the past history of matches and players’ performances to reach a conclusion, but what it lacks is an understanding of the players’ current form.

The AI will likely predict the winner based on which team has the lowest odds. This is similar to the method sportsbooks use when determining the favorite and assigning the lowest odds between two teams.

It’s very risky to rely completely on AI when real money is at stake. However, since this is just an experiment and only a small amount of money is involved, I would say it will be fun to watch.

Keep posting all the results here, OP.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I think this won’t work. AI is good at analysis. It can easily use the past history of matches and players’ performances to reach a conclusion, but what it lacks is an understanding of the players’ current form.

The AI will likely predict the winner based on which team has the lowest odds. This is similar to the method sportsbooks use when determining the favorite and assigning the lowest odds between two teams.

It’s very risky to rely completely on AI when real money is at stake.

Well, I believe the opposite: AI will be better at selecting bets for the average forum user. And for someone with a lot of experience, it makes sense to use it as leverage, with the human always checking the results and making the final decision.

But it won’t be infallible, as bookmakers also use AI, and a paid version at that, unlike forum users who, in 99% of cases, will use the free version. What’s more, bookmakers are free to set the odds by calculating the juice, which significantly reduces the likelihood of bettors beating them.

However, since this is just an experiment and only a small amount of money is involved, I would say it will be fun to watch.

I think the same.

[Hewlet]

I think this won’t work. AI is good at analysis. It can easily use the past history of matches and players’ performances to reach a conclusion, but what it lacks is an understanding of the players’ current form.

you can equally tell an AI to carry out an analysis based on recent performances of players and it narrows it output to what you instruct it to do. completely depending on an AI alone is what is bad but using it as an aid helps in carrying out proper analysis. that being said, a proper test on how effective AI is in carrying out sports prediction should have been that you allow it do the analysis alone and not assist it. it is even better to ask a direct question like, "in the south Africa vs Mexico game, what's the expected outcome?" whatever suggestion the AI gives, you just take it that way unedited and then we can agree that you are actually carrying out a proper test. if you have to help the AI with certain fact, then what you are doing is no different from what other random bettors are doing.

[swogerino]

Sounds like a very nice analysis regarding the opener from artificial intelligence, personally what got me here was the fact that it told you to not bet on goals in the first game of the tournament as usually teams are nervous so they play carefully, this is something I never think about when placing my bets on goals, team behavior yet the artificial intelligence pointed this out. Let's see how it unfolds further yet the beginning looks very promising based on the intelligence and insights they provided.

[KTChampions]

~
Initial bankroll: $100

My first bet is on Mexico to win, with modest odds of 1.43
The AI ​​showed me that the hosts had 16 wins, 6 draws, and 1 loss in World Cup openers
Furthermore, they cited the last games of both teams as being quite unfavorable to South Africa

They mentioned the initial nervousness of the World Cup opener, suggesting I shouldn't bet on goals, and that betting on Mexico to win would be more favorable
~

Good thread, I love following such experiments.
But you didn't say what the bet size was? I understand you won't bet your entire bankroll at once, otherwise the experiment won't last long.
As for Mexico's victory, yes, it was a foregone conclusion (it's also worth noting that they've had a ton of shutouts lately, meaning their defense is strong), but I didn't want to risk it, as opening games often end illogically.
What's your next bet?

[Charles-Tim]

You did not bet on the group A second match, the match between South Korea and Czechia. South Korea won the match while Czechia first scored, but equalized and won by South Korea. This means you are not going to be betting on all the matches, which is not bad.

Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina will be playing today at the same time Mexico and South Africa played yesterday.

[Cointxz]

The AI will likely predict the winner based on which team has the lowest odds. This is similar to the method sportsbooks use when determining the favorite and assigning the lowest odds between two teams.

It’s not true, AI will based its pick on the stats and not on the odds since it provides analysis from the stats available online. Odds reflected already different factor aside from the stats analysis including betting line movement which an AI will not consider when providing a pick.

AI will not provide a high accuracy pick of winners since match results can’t determine alone with just the stats but you are betting with a good stats analysis background which better than manually betting on your own if you don’t have good sports analysis skills.

[Betwrong]

~ My first bet is on Mexico to win, with modest odds of 1.43
The AI ​​showed me that the hosts had 16 wins, 6 draws, and 1 loss in World Cup openers
Furthermore, they cited the last games of both teams as being quite unfavorable to South Africa
~

First off, I want to say that it's a great idea and I totally support it and I'm giving you a merit for your amazing post, OP.  I will follow this thread with big interest. Regarding your first bet, well, most bettors would say, Mexico's gonna win, hence the odds. What's really interesting to me is when the odds are above 2.00 and AI still suggested you to bet and you bet and you won. No way I'm encouraging you making risky bets, it's just my thoughts.

[giammangiato]

I can use Chatgpt, Grok, and Perplexity, which are the ones I have available at the moment

I'll post my updates here

Interesting experiment, I followed a similar one on the Italian championship two years ago, I have to say that it came close to the result, obviously relying on this is not a wise thing, but I can confirm that the data it collects of the performances, of the matches of each team helps you a lot to get an evaluation (which is clear however are evaluations that have no mathematical certainty about the outcome of the match).
Your $100 will always increase anyway based on luck, we can't deny that.

[adultcrypto]

You did not bet on the group A second match, the match between South Korea and Czechia. South Korea won the match while Czechia first scored, but equalized and won by South Korea. This means you are not going to be betting on all the matches, which is not bad.

Perhaps the OP is being selective as it should be because you don't have to bet one each and every match. Personally I wouldn't bet on the South Korea vs Canada match because it looked very difficult to predict. Even the result is far from what I expected as you noted, Czech scored first yet lost the match which still confirm the uncertainty of that match.

today we have Canada against Bosnia, another difficult match to predict and if I were to bet, I will go with first half draw as the feasible option I see there. That of USA against Paraguay is easier to give USA the winning due to home advantage.

[bitbollo]

Nice catch with Mexico. Even if, this odds could appear a "small" odd, can bring a great profit (43%!)... Definitely well done.
Anyway, I would be more curious to see the PROMPT/outcome or what type of data you're using for this test. There are many factors that can influence the outcome...
At a certain point some AI are starting to add "sponsored" content and so on... it would be really interesting to look into it.

[Synchronice]

Since it's World Cup season, what better time to bet, hehe?
I've wanted to do some tests with AI for a while now, and now's the time to do it

My idea is simple:

I'll start with a bankroll of $100, and during the World Cup I'll only have that amount to bet with. I need to see how far I can go and if I can profit with the help of AI
It's a small amount, and I'll make small bets because it's a test, I'll keep this project separate from my main bets

I won't make bets solely based on the AI's opinion, I'll use a mix of my analysis and the AI's

I can use Chatgpt, Grok, and Perplexity, which are the ones I have available at the moment

I'll post my updates here

Before I ask you about AI, I want you to ask this question: Do you know that one German economist, strategist and mathematician, Joachim Klement, successfully forecasted the last three FIFA World Cups.


Do you use paid models or do you use free models? ChatGPT 5.5 is a pretty good model but it's paid. I also love Claude very much. Even though I'm not a fan of AI, this is my number one favorite AI. It would also be nice to try Gemini, even a paid model because it doesn't cost much and is quite affordable.

I also suggest you to create a very good prompt for the AI. Don't ask it just to help you to predict the winner between two teams. Ask it like this:

Act as a football analytics expert. Help me predict the winner of every match in the FIFA World Cup.

Use the most recent available data, including:
- Team form in the last 10–15 matches
- FIFA/Elo rankings
- Injuries, suspensions, and likely starting lineups
- Head-to-head history
- Manager tactics and playing style
- Squad depth and tournament experience
- Venue, travel, climate, and rest days
- Betting odds and market movement, if available
- Expected goals, goals scored/conceded, possession, pressing, and defensive metrics

For each match, give me:
1. Predicted winner
2. Estimated scoreline
3. Win probability for each team and draw probability
4. Key reasons for the prediction
5. Main risk factors that could make the prediction wrong
6. Confidence level: Low, Medium, or High

Do not just choose the more famous team. Explain the reasoning clearly and be realistic about uncertainty.

Here is the match or group of matches I want you to analyze: