My tests with AI and betting on the World Cup

[Rubuchi]

Beautiful experiment and I guess you won't be the only one who has thought of this experiment and as well executing it. Based on this looking at this experiment, it I wonder how this AI can give an expected results that is winning more slips than loses because if it does that will mean a lot on the betting companies now that many people has feed from your thought like many has also feed from others having same thought as you (testing the AI).
Maybe you can have AI prediction on one slip and another slip where you applied your opinion, this will give a total or holistic test of AI in football predictions

maybe the only thing I will use AI for in all of the predictions is just to probably know the current squad depth of the teams involved that's if I don't have idea, also for it to tell me their previous matches which I can still Google and analyze, and whether both teams have met before and what was the outcome, but I will still be the person to compare and contrast their experiences, skills, tactics, squad depth as well as their possible chances of winning based on the culminating of these indices to arrive as a more naturally analyzed outcome which will now serve as my prediction for the match.

[rdluffy]

I just consulted ChatGPT (free) and Grok (free) right now

...
I also suggest you to create a very good prompt for the AI. Don't ask it just to help you to predict the winner between two teams. Ask it like this:...

Thanks, really nice prompt, I used to my predictions for today 

Both suggested betting on under 2.5 goals in both matches
I agree with the AI ​​analysis and have already bet $3 on each
Total of $6 today.

Canada game - odds 1.68
USA game - odds 1.55

I'll see if I can post the prompt I used here, and if I can, I'll also post the AI ​​analysis so you can compare

I'll try to make my posts better and more informative
I won't bet on all the games, but at least today I will, and tomorrow I'll focus on the Brazil game, then I'll only bet on the most interesting ones

[Wakate]

You did not bet on the group A second match, the match between South Korea and Czechia. South Korea won the match while Czechia first scored, but equalized and won by South Korea. This means you are not going to be betting on all the matches, which is not bad.

Perhaps the OP is being selective as it should be because you don't have to bet one each and every match. Personally I wouldn't bet on the South Korea vs Canada match because it looked very difficult to predict. Even the result is far from what I expected as you noted, Czech scored first yet lost the match which still confirm the uncertainty of that match.

today we have Canada against Bosnia, another difficult match to predict and if I were to bet, I will go with first half draw as the feasible option I see there. That of USA against Paraguay is easier to give USA the winning due to home advantage.

There are some matches in the world cup that I will not bother myself about because the outcome can be very hard to predict.
When a big team is playing with a smaller team, such match can be easily predicted than you trying to predict what will be the outcome of two weak team or two big team when we know that anything can happen at the end.

[Charles-Tim]

There are some matches in the world cup that I will not bother myself about because the outcome can be very hard to predict.
When a big team is playing with a smaller team, such match can be easily predicted than you trying to predict what will be the outcome of two weak team or two big team when we know that anything can happen at the end.

That is true, Canada has not been winning matches, Bosnia and Herzegovina won Italy to qualify. It is hard to predict the match. But ChatGPT predicted Canada 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina. The odd for Canada to win is 1.85, while 1.2 for win or draw on Stake.com. I think the match is not worth going for, but it is very possible that Canada will either draw or win. Canada field supposed to favour Canada as it is their home.

[AakZaki]

OP: why don't you show the bets you made on the site where you bet? I've seen one of the members do this kind of thing, he shows like a screenshot when he bets and when he wins or loses.

I think that way, those commenting here will believe that you are really making that bet, not just a story.
Who knows that there will be someone who wants to follow your prediction as well.

When a big team is playing with a smaller team, such match can be easily predicted than you trying to predict what will be the outcome of two weak team or two big team when we know that anything can happen at the end.

Matches that are easy to predict usually have very small odds for stronger teams, sometimes those who make bets make bigger bets nominally, on the other hand sometimes inconsistencies in placing bets start to appear and when they lose they will suffer bigger losses as well.

[SOKO-DEKE]

If you use AI and take advantage of AI and start betting on World Cup matches based on your own analysis, I think you can succeed. But if you only rely on AI, I don't think you can make a profit and be successful because AI will make predictions based on assumptions. If AI could make correct predictions, then maybe people would have won every bet using AI. Suppose today there is a match between Mexico and South Africa, we definitely know that Mexico will win and the AI ​​here shows that Mexico will win, but I think you should give the most importance to your own analysis.

The point is that whether someone fully relies on AI or bases predictions on their own analysis, they cannot always get correct predictions. There is no strategy that someone can use to consistently make a profit from gambling. Winning in gambling depends largely on luck.So, let stop thinking that gambling can be a source of income. Many people who saw gambling as a way of making money now regret their actions and the way they thought about it. We should see gambling as entertainment and only play for fun because that is one of the best ways to avoid addiction.

Also, people should never gamble with money they cannot afford to lose. Gambling may seem predictable at first, especially to those who have not experienced it for long. However, once someone becomes more involved, they will realize that nothing is truly predictable in gambling. Sometimes, the match that gives the most hope of winning ends up being the one that causes disappointment.Therefore, even in this World Cup, we are going to experience some surprising results. So, let's not see these World Cup matches as completely predictable and give ourselves false hope of winning.

[Doan9269]

I like it the way you just presented it, that it is a kind of experimental performance for you to see how AI could deliver up to what you want or not during the world cup event, it is interesting that you can be able to test some capabilities with the use of AI and our own personal experience in gambling and see how far we could go with some of these predictions over the matches for the world cup, let's see how far it can go and what you have likely to get along the line.

[Tungbulu]

There are some matches in the world cup that I will not bother myself about because the outcome can be very hard to predict.
When a big team is playing with a smaller team, such match can be easily predicted than you trying to predict what will be the outcome of two weak team or two big team when we know that anything can happen at the end.

That's about true, there are some team that one don't even need to bother themselves to predict about it, if they want to bet on it, just bet or play the game and allow luck to do the rest, if one is lucky enough, they will win but if they are not, then its a lose for them because the teams might have the same pattern, that makes on to find it difficult to predict and in order to avoid what will drain one's mental energy, they have to make the needful and enjoy the game as it is.

[gracreavix]

My first bet is on Mexico to win, with modest odds of 1.43
The AI showed me that the hosts had 16 wins, 6 draws, and 1 loss in World Cup openers
Furthermore, they cited the last games of both teams as being quite unfavorable to South Africa

They mentioned the initial nervousness of the World Cup opener, suggesting I shouldn't bet on goals, and that betting on Mexico to win would be more favorable

I know there are already some topics about the World Cup, but it's a different project that I can't organize in the official topic
If there's no interest from anyone, I can stop posting so as not to generate uninteresting content

Interesting. Seems you won your first game. Give me update on your second game.

Since it's World Cup season, what better time to bet, hehe?
I've wanted to do some tests with AI for a while now, and now's the time to do it

My idea is simple:

I'll start with a bankroll of $100, and during the World Cup I'll only have that amount to bet with. I need to see how far I can go and if I can profit with the help of AI
It's a small amount, and I'll make small bets because it's a test, I'll keep this project separate from my main bets

I won't make bets solely based on the AI's opinion, I'll use a mix of my analysis and the AI's

I can use Chatgpt, Grok, and Perplexity, which are the ones I have available at the moment

I'll post my updates here

Before I ask you about AI, I want you to ask this question: Do you know that one German economist, strategist and mathematician, Joachim Klement, successfully forecasted the last three FIFA World Cups.


Do you use paid models or do you use free models? ChatGPT 5.5 is a pretty good model but it's paid. I also love Claude very much. Even though I'm not a fan of AI, this is my number one favorite AI. It would also be nice to try Gemini, even a paid model because it doesn't cost much and is quite affordable.

I also suggest you to create a very good prompt for the AI. Don't ask it just to help you to predict the winner between two teams. Ask it like this:

Act as a football analytics expert. Help me predict the winner of every match in the FIFA World Cup.

Use the most recent available data, including:
- Team form in the last 10–15 matches
- FIFA/Elo rankings
- Injuries, suspensions, and likely starting lineups
- Head-to-head history
- Manager tactics and playing style
- Squad depth and tournament experience
- Venue, travel, climate, and rest days
- Betting odds and market movement, if available
- Expected goals, goals scored/conceded, possession, pressing, and defensive metrics

For each match, give me:
1. Predicted winner
2. Estimated scoreline
3. Win probability for each team and draw probability
4. Key reasons for the prediction
5. Main risk factors that could make the prediction wrong
6. Confidence level: Low, Medium, or High

Do not just choose the more famous team. Explain the reasoning clearly and be realistic about uncertainty.

Here is the match or group of matches I want you to analyze:

I won't be left out on this. I will also do this. The major thing that it is about AI is prompting. Once you can get that right, every other thing falls into place. Like you are giving that AI specific commands to do something.

[Ayers]

Maybe you can have AI prediction on one slip and another slip where you applied your opinion, this will give a total or holistic test of AI in football predictions

In fact you have given a completely appropriate and awesome suggestion, lol.  

On one side just the blind move given by AI and on the other side the combination of your football knowledge combined with the AI data, wow,  

If you put these two face to face then the whole experiment will take on a different level of madness

I'll see if I can post the prompt I used here, and if I can, I'll also post the AI ​​analysis so you can compare

That would be really good,,

In the World Cup group stage match where teams are on edge, betting on under 2.5 goal is actually a pretty safe move there is nothing wrong with that

I hope you are not just listening to the AI words for betting. But also using your own precious sight. Because this AI can be a genius at just swallowing piles of old records and statistics. It most often neglect very important context like climate, team motivation or tactical shifts. If you update your post with your AI analysis then we could easily catch that..

[Floxynice]

I won't be left out on this. I will also do this. The major thing that it is about AI is prompting. Once you can get that right, every other thing falls into place. Like you are giving that AI specific commands to do something.

You see what OP is doing here? He isn't relying on opinions from AI. OP had already conceived his own idea and described his thoughts in his prompt. AI is only here to save him the stress of cracking his brain to make predictions.

I think his method is helpful, and if you are going to follow this method, you might do well. I am also interested in seeing how profitable this will be for him after the World Cup season is over.

[lionheart78]

Maybe you can have AI prediction on one slip and another slip where you applied your opinion, this will give a total or holistic test of AI in football predictions

If @OP does this suggestion, this thread would be more interesting. like AI vs HI.  This will show us the difference between a bet that fully depends on the historical data done by AI and a bet that analyzes variables and possible unknown variable together with hints and human sight and idea of the upcoming match.  A bet with emotional attachment against a bet without emotion.

Anyway, good luck with your test run. I hope you get a good result in this.

[jaberwock]

Everyone picked either win or a loss, I wanted to be different (lol no, I just thought it wouldn't be that clear) and said it will break even give or take. I mean if it is 100 dollars bankroll to start, I am sure it will be somewhere above 70 dollars and under 130 dollars, that's where I think it will end.

Of course this depends on how careful you are which each bet, if you bet 100 dollars on every bet then yeah you are not going to get a good result, but 10 bucks per bet, and keep betting once a day, I bet you that it will not be that big win or lose.