Sticking with the Favorites : World Cup edition

[Somto9Light]

I am responding to this comment because it is one mistake that many people do that leave them in serious losses. Allowing emotions to build up to the point it affects your sane decisions a problem many people find difficult to handle. When you are gambling and you are doing it for the money, you don't use emotions to choose your sides, you use your analysis and other factors of possibilities to do so. Emotions in gambling in most cases result to failure. Support who you think will be the winner on the basis of your analysis and informed decisions and not because of sentiments.

You make a good point mate. Just like every other thing, gambling has rules and not following those rules means you’re literally getting yourself into some serious trouble. One of those rules is that gambling should be treated as nothing more but an entertainment and fun if you want to be safe in gambling. It is not as if everyone who gambles for money or profit are doing the wrong thing. No, there are still a handful of folks who do it the right way, but the chances of losses and addiction are really high since the odds are mostly in favor of the house and not everyone has the mental maturity to make the right decisions when under such pressure.

[Grace333]

I'm not sticking with the favorites because they're the ones I think have the least chance of winning. I've seen African teams that have made a difference, and some South American countries have produced teams that I don't think they would have, so this World Cup could have more surprises. I'd like to see a match between Argentina and France, but I think that would happen in a final.

There has been so many unimaginable occurrence in this world cup which had made some fans skeptical.
Who would have believed that Germany would be eliminated too early in the 2026 world cup. I am waiting to see the outcome between the match between Argentina and Cape Verde and there has been speculations and prophecies that said Argentina is going to lose to Cape Verde which is something unimaginable. I will not believe that until I see it in reality because the speculation is too expensive.

Sincerely I just don't know what to think about the none favourite teams in the World Cup anymore with how they're being gradually eliminated while those that were selected as favourites from the onset are still progressing into the next stages by showing their dominance over the least favourites. Germany elimination by Paraguay was a shocker. It would be boring for me watching Argentina and France meet again in the final game so I wish we could have other teams getting into the finals.

This world cup made it really easy for people to get quite a good multiplier just by sticking with favorite teams almost all the underdog national teams have been eliminated and soon it would be favourite playing favourite which is the most interesting part of the competition but then it would be very difficult to predict because, every team wouod come prepared. Times like this it's best to reduce your stake and stick to singles rather than multiple selection.

[Lida93]

Snip

This world cup made it really easy for people to get quite a good multiplier just by sticking with favorite teams almost all the underdog national teams have been eliminated and soon it would be favourite playing favourite which is the most interesting part of the competition but then it would be very difficult to predict because, every team wouod come prepared. Times like this it's best to reduce your stake and stick to singles rather than multiple selection.

It hasn't being as easy as you put it though it's something to go by with the couples of opportunities for single bet bettors compared to league games but then it hasn't being consistent with the favourite teams in winning all their games. The round of 16 to the quarter finals is where is really gonna be tough for bettors to pick what team would win that simply even for the single bets.

[stompix]

As for the shitposters, when you quote their posts (I usually skip them automatically), it makes my blood boil. That's why I recommend creating self-moderated threads 

I never learn! Nor will I!

I think with 500+ bets, we should expect some unusual results. They don't stand out from the statistics at all, but rather, they're consistent with them. Besides, his bet isn't crazy at all - it's only x22. The other bettor made x71, and I made x32, but we were betting $10.
Look, we're currently up $3,189 combined. Even if we completely discount Hhampuz result, we're still up a whopping $1,800.
I still have no ideas to explain such profitability, because we should be in the red.

Well, Hhampuz is slowly discounting himself .... so 
But no, profitability is not that hard to explain; the games were predictable and more importantly, surprises were clustered together. Germany and the Netherlands played one after the other so if you went simple parlays on qualifying for 4-5 games for the next two days you would have had an avalanche of 12 wins, keep expectations in check and just go for the obvious.
Of course, advice I always give but never keep true for myself when playing.

Also would be nice if that at the end one can make a graph on the overall balance to see where the ups and downs were!

It hasn't being as easy as you put it though it's something to go by with the couples of opportunities for single bet bettors compared to league games but then it hasn't being consistent with the favourite teams in winning all their games.

Are you sure you're watching the same World Cup?


----------------------------


Group Stage:

46 wins, 23 losses!
Total wagered 69
Total Profit 5.35
Profit rate  is 7.75%

This shit has ended, it's just copy pasta!!!!!

Knockout stage:
90 mins winner:

13 wins, 5 losses!
Total wagered 18
Total Profit 4.25

Knockout stage:
Team to qualify:

16 wins, 2 losses!
Total wagered 18
Total Profit 2.97

As said before, low low odds for the one team qualifying.

Total overall:

62 wins, 25 losses!
Total wagered 87
Total Profit
option a 9.60 Profit rate 11%
option b 8.32 Profit rate 9.5%

[danadc]

I sincerely believe that the favorite football teams in this World Cup (Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina, and Morocco) have a significant advantage over their numerous, significantly weaker opponents. Therefore, betting on the favorites is, in my opinion, not a bad strategy at all. Let's forget about the Netherlands and Germany for now.🤷

They've already eliminated a favorite, Brazil. From what I've seen on the news, the England team has requested special security to stay in Mexico because their flight was delayed, preventing them from resting properly. In Mexico, the fans are already acting as the 12th man. The English are sensitive; will they be able to withstand all that pressure? According to Ecuador, many say they'll be threatened by the infamous cartels. I don't think England would have been granted a bye through Mexico for the same reason. Will England be eliminated? It's been shown that the Mexicans make the most of their home advantage.

[stompix]

Oh for got sake!!!!!!!!
On the 14th I edited the last post instead of quoting it!

Here is the original!

Tiny update:

Quote
64 wins, 27 losses!
Total wagered 91
Total Profit
option a 10.25 Profit rate 11.2%
option b 8.97 Profit rate 9.85%

There are 9 games left, one favorite winning and even option b (team to qualify) will be green, option a (betting on the favorite to win the 90+ is already clear; it can't go negative!
So, 12 days before the final we already have an answer!

[stompix]

3 games left, I really don't count the 3rd placing as an actual  game

The stats go as follows:

Option A winner in 90 minutes

67 wins, 30 losses!
Total wagered 97
Total Profit
option a 9.00 Profit rate 9.27%

Option B Team to qualify

69 wins, 28 losses!
Total wagered 97
Total Profit
option a 9.36 Profit rate 9.64%

So 3 (4) games left, there is no way for it go in the red!

At a rate of nearly 9% per month, turning on average $9 on the $100, sticking with the favorites for EVERY single match, beat staking, stocks, or anything else that doesn't involve speculation.
To all naysayers, I expect to come back and admit you were wrong!

I will probably update the topic with the final results in a week or so but right now I'm not going to do any more math; it's holiday time!

[KTChampions]

3 games left, I really don't count the 3rd placing as an actual  game

The stats go as follows:

Option A winner in 90 minutes

67 wins, 30 losses!
Total wagered 97
Total Profit
option a 9.00 Profit rate 9.27%

Option B Team to qualify

69 wins, 28 losses!
Total wagered 97
Total Profit
option a 9.36 Profit rate 9.64%

So 3 (4) games left, there is no way for it go in the red!

At a rate of nearly 9% per month, turning on average $9 on the $100, sticking with the favorites for EVERY single match, beat staking, stocks, or anything else that doesn't involve speculation.
To all naysayers, I expect to come back and admit you were wrong!

I will probably update the topic with the final results in a week or so but right now I'm not going to do any more math; it's holiday time!

Yes, the game for third place raises questions, unless there is an underdog-revelation-of-tournament, which is interested in every victory, then it is usually a formal torment for two unmotivated teams.
It's worth noting that the tournament turned out to be extremely predictable, in the sense that FIFA divided the four ranking favorites into different paths, and all of them ended up in the semi-finals. An extremely rare layout, not a single serious upset (Germany and Brazil are not in a position where their defeats would surprise anyone).
Bookmakers made good money when the favorites went into extra time, but the fact remains that a simple strategy of betting on the favorites was profitable (with so many teams this is a new reality).

[POPOLUV]

The World Cup tournament is just something else, as what one doesn't really planned just happen. That is why one should not be too confident in the game because many disappointments will occur and even if the laws pr rules are being biased, it won't stop the game or change anything in it and in order for one to avoid emotional issues with the stuff of favorites, its best to either watch quietly or stick to different teams.

Well, I decided not to place any more bets because it's obvious that there are things that are sort of known, but due to the nature of the game itself, other teams end up winning because they get help. The semifinals are finally going to be good. Here in this tournament, I don't think they'll be able to cheat as much, and we'll finally get to see the soccer matches we've been wanting to see let's hope they remain incorruptible.

Not placing any more bets is the best thing to do if you notice that the competition isn't really going in a favorable direction for you. The world cup is always unpredictable but this one In particular has been difficult to predict although I have been able to make some profits but I have incurred more losses. Based on how difficult it is to predict that's the reason why I decided to bet on the goals market. There is no form of cheating that can go on because the competition is well monitored.

You are definitely correct because even before now, most of the gamblers are aware that this competition is always difficult to be able ascertain the right prediction, to be honest with you on this, I'm not too good when it comes to world cup prediction and yet i didn't stop from watching the FIFA world cup tournament, basically on the favorite teams like Portugal, France, Spain and England, although Portugal is out from the tournament and France, Spain and England is remaining, so i will not panic more much if it happens that one among my favorite teams i mention earlier happen to qualify for the final and  left the 2026 FIFA world cup trophy.

[danadc]

You are definitely correct because even before now, most of the gamblers are aware that this competition is always difficult to be able ascertain the right prediction, to be honest with you on this, I'm not too good when it comes to world cup prediction and yet i didn't stop from watching the FIFA world cup tournament, basically on the favorite teams like Portugal, France, Spain and England, although Portugal is out from the tournament and France, Spain and England is remaining, so i will not panic more much if it happens that one among my favorite teams i mention earlier happen to qualify for the final and  left the 2026 FIFA world cup trophy.

At the moment I'm undecided about the Spain vs. France match I think France has a much better chance of winnin, I see them as having a better team than Spain Besides, if Argentina advances because they've been helped to reach the final, then I think France deserves a good rematch. That's why I'm choosing France to place a bet today, Tomorrow, even if they lose, I'll go with England.

[darewaller]

I would say 10% isn't bad? I mean I do not get why it is being considered as "low" when the return is 9.64% or whatever, that is actually a good return in like less than 2 months or something. It has been what, a full month or so since it started?

I think that is very important because if you had anything in your life, that gave you 10% per month, you would be crazy happy, right? So we are assuming that with the final game, that is roughly like 1.5 months, not exactly but give or take. Even if you said it took 2 months, that's still a lot.

[junder]

You are definitely correct because even before now, most of the gamblers are aware that this competition is always difficult to be able ascertain the right prediction, to be honest with you on this, I'm not too good when it comes to world cup prediction and yet i didn't stop from watching the FIFA world cup tournament, basically on the favorite teams like Portugal, France, Spain and England, although Portugal is out from the tournament and France, Spain and England is remaining, so i will not panic more much if it happens that one among my favorite teams i mention earlier happen to qualify for the final and  left the 2026 FIFA world cup trophy.

I myself am more or less like ada, by still watching the match in progress because it is a big game so everyone will most likely watch it even if they are not football fans or the team they have won has gone home. I myself bet on the team that has been eliminated, but even so I still watch it and maybe will bet on the final match later which will add to the excitement and tension if I make a bet.

[KTChampions]

I will probably update the topic with the final results in a week or so but right now I'm not going to do any more math; it's holiday time!

I would like to see the final figures, although it is clear that the profit is higher than in bank deposits 
Regarding the betting competition I linked to, we finished in the black ($2,000), which seems incredible (number of bets is 900 and it would seem that this is a sufficient distance to lose). It's funny that, starting in the semifinals, the bookmakers beat the bettors almost every game, we only ended up in the black thanks to the significant margin we'd built up earlier. And, as always, the positive outcome was ensured by just a few bettors.

[stompix]

I would like to see the final figures, although it is clear that the profit is higher than in bank deposits  

The last games delivered a hit to the ratio...but I'm not going to argue, the favorite lost even if it was 2.80/3.2 they were favorite/

67 wins, 33 losses!
Total wagered 100
Total Profit
option a 3.00 Profit rate 6%

Option B Team to qualify (win)

70 wins, 30 losses!
Total wagered 100
Total Profit
option a 7.96 Profit rate 7.96%

So, at the end of the day, betting constantly on the favorite would have earned you roughly 5% a month interest.
Of course, this is considering you used $1 for a bet and you had a total of $100, it's all about the math we do, if we consider you had only $10 and you bet constantly $1 it would have been the same overall profit and the maximum bankroll needed was $6 during the whole cup.

It's funny that, starting in the semifinals, the bookmakers beat the bettors almost every game, we only ended up in the black thanks to the significant margin we'd built up earlier. And, as always, the positive outcome was ensured by just a few bettors.

Did the bookmakers really baet you, or did you get just to bold encouraged by the previous results?
Of course, in the semifinals we had two upsets, but they were close ones, and still only 2 games out of 100...

I think overall the WC was bad for the bookies, like really bad!

[KTChampions]

So, at the end of the day, betting constantly on the favorite would have earned you roughly 5% a month interest.
Of course, this is considering you used $1 for a bet and you had a total of $100, it's all about the math we do, if we consider you had only $10 and you bet constantly $1 it would have been the same overall profit and the maximum bankroll needed was $6 during the whole cup.

Well, if you calculate it this way, the profitability is even higher, significantly higher  

It's funny that, starting in the semifinals, the bookmakers beat the bettors almost every game, we only ended up in the black thanks to the significant margin we'd built up earlier. And, as always, the positive outcome was ensured by just a few bettors.

Did the bookmakers really baet you, or did you get just to bold encouraged by the previous results?
Of course, in the semifinals we had two upsets, but they were close ones, and still only 2 games out of 100...

I think overall the WC was bad for the bookies, like really bad!

I don’t know if they lured me in, on the contrary, towards the end of the tournament I became more cautious, but I expected confident victories from France, England, and Spain (handicap -1.5 haha). Overall I finished the tournament with a +$915 and my peak was around $1200.
Perhaps yes, I hope we'll find out the details a little later. Bookmakers don't like to publish statistics, but sooner or later some leaks happen.

[darbitmobilerecovery]

Perhaps yes, I hope we'll find out the details a little later. Bookmakers don't like to publish statistics, but sooner or later some leaks happen.

Sorry for come late to this thread and ask it now, but where we can find that kind of statistics?. If you can share it with us, i like to see it. Are only just how much they lose or win or they have a better disclosure divided by markets ,etc.?

I feel anyways like it was a good world cup for bettors, despite not doing good in the BTB contest i was up in msot of it and only lose it in the last round trying to catch the pack. But overall i also think i end above between all the bookies.

[KTChampions]

Perhaps yes, I hope we'll find out the details a little later. Bookmakers don't like to publish statistics, but sooner or later some leaks happen.

Sorry for come late to this thread and ask it now, but where we can find that kind of statistics?. If you can share it with us, i like to see it. Are only just how much they lose or win or they have a better disclosure divided by markets ,etc.?

I feel anyways like it was a good world cup for bettors, despite not doing good in the BTB contest i was up in msot of it and only lose it in the last round trying to catch the pack. But overall i also think i end above between all the bookies.

I would share if such information existed in its "entirety". It has to be found bit by bit, most of which is behind a paywall. In open form, the information exists in the form of “our best platform did the analysis - here it is”, and there is only a small part of it. By the way, I found some interesting details here, and if you follow the related links, they are there too: GR8_TECH: Inside the World Cup’s biggest betting patterns But again, I don’t know how much all of this can be trusted.

I found some statistics for my local bookmakers here https://finance.mail.ru/article/chempionat-otyigran-69219851/ google translate will help you view it.
On the one hand, there's nothing special there, but it's funny to note that for my bookmakers, unlike GR8_TECH, the top three most popular teams to bet turned out to be France - Portugal - Spain, and not Argentina - Spain - France/England. And some more information (which tells me that the betting market is saturated - volumes are growing due to existing bettors).

As for profitability, from everything I've read so far, it's written everywhere that bookmakers have always been in the black (I don't know how to believe this), but the most unprofitable game for bookmakers (according to my local bookmakers) turned out to be England - Argentina, and this is consistent with other global data, which says that most bets were on Argentina's games and on Argentina itself.
For the American audience (bettors), the most unprofitable game was the USA - Belgium, patriotism failed them  

Who knows, maybe the bookmakers really were in the black the whole time, we have a distorted perception because we're the pros here, much better than the average person who supported their teams and favorites and, for example, got burned in the very first game between Spain and Cabo Verde.

[darbitmobilerecovery]

As for profitability, from everything I've read so far, it's written everywhere that bookmakers have always been in the black (I don't know how to believe this), but the most unprofitable game for bookmakers (according to my local bookmakers) turned out to be England - Argentina, and this is consistent with other global data, which says that most bets were on Argentina's games and on Argentina itself.
For the American audience (bettors), the most unprofitable game was the USA - Belgium, patriotism failed them  

Who knows, maybe the bookmakers really were in the black the whole time, we have a distorted perception because we're the pros here, much better than the average person who supported their teams and favorites and, for example, got burned in the very first game between Spain and Cabo Verde.

Thanks KTC as always for your proper answer.

Well about your last statement yes, i think we are in a micro buble here and maybe we have a distortion of the reality, plus we dont know what the "degens" did in this world cup i feel like they are the guys who moves the whole circus and we are just peasants trying to get some profit from it.

Code:

Spain, Argentina, England and France generated 37.5% of the total turnover before the semi-finals. By the end of the competition, their combined share had risen to 42%.

I was reading that paragraph from one of your shared data (GR8) and maybe im wrong but doesnt seems like not so much people bet after the semifinals? I mean going from 37% to 42% is not so much i think.

[TedMosby]

[...]
So, at the end of the day, betting constantly on the favorite would have earned you roughly 5% a month interest.
Of course, this is considering you used $1 for a bet and you had a total of $100, it's all about the math we do, if we consider you had only $10 and you bet constantly $1 it would have been the same overall profit and the maximum bankroll needed was $6 during the whole cup.
[...]

The results are quite similar to the simulation I posted on another thread before about consistently betting on Arsenal in the EPL last season.
The result was a profit, but not by much. It would give you 26W and 12L, with an ROI of +3.13%.

So, with these data, yours and mine, is this the best ROI we can get from being consistent in sports betting?
For me, it's not enough, but it seems to be the safest among all the risky options

Hmmm, what if it's combined with a Martingale strategy, not by doubling the bet, but by adjusting the stake to reach a certain profit target so it can at least cover the previous loss? Would it help, or is it just a stupid idea?

[...]
I think overall the WC was bad for the bookies, like really bad!

Estimated $50bn was placed in bets, around $500m wagered per match [1].
Bookmakers generated $7.5 billion in global gross gaming revenue. Gross gaming revenue (GGR) is what operators keep after paying out winners, and it is a fraction of the total handle determined by the hold, or margin [2]. It's not net profit because they still need to pay taxes, marketing, operating costs, etc. But this number is still huge.

Source:
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrkek8lrzvo
[2] https://igamingdailynews.co/how-much-money-do-bookmakers-make-from-the-world-cup-2026