Sticking with the Favorites : World Cup edition

[stompix]

Anything to explain? Doubt it, but here it goes  

We had thousands over hundreds over millions of topics on how choosing the favorite is bad long-term, choosing low odds is bad, how there is no strategy, how this and that and little actual data or even worse, close to none of putting the money where the quota typing is.
I actually ran this for a year, which, despite all odds, turned profitable:
Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues!

Now doing this for the World Cup!

So:
- no strategies
- no AI help
- no fancy parlays
- no Martingale, no Fibonacci, no Fleshlight

Each games goes for 1 credit on the favorite, at the end we draw the line, and we see if we would have made a profit and beat interest rates or god thank you we didn't take the bait!

Since well, I had too much to work yesterday I need to add to extra results from already ended game to keep the end results true, no cherry picking.



Day 1:
0.50+1.65=2.15 Win

Total wagered 2
Total win 2.15

Next games:
Canada 1.90
Usa 2.15
Switzerland 1.25
Wagered for the day 3
Wagered total 5

[mcdouglasx]

In the end, the numbers will speak for themselves. Let's hope it works out in your favor, although I hope you only see it as an exercise if it gives you positive results, because if it works, you could become biased, to the point where you end up losing money. The math doesn't lie, and there are many factors that can alter your experiment. To be clear, a top team in the World Cup, or the most favored team (if we're optimistic), has a slightly higher than 20% probability of being champion. That is, more than a 70% probability that your favorite top team will end up losing this World Cup, so there are many variables.

[Moreno233]

Betting on the favorite is definitely going to work very well in this world Cup and I see AI doing wonderfully well even though there is no 100% method. USA and Switzerland are definitely the favorites for their various matches, I only feel that Canada may have a hard time winning Bosnia. Therefore, I would prefer playing the match of Canada 3ways, then combine that with the other matches to get around 3.5 odds.

[bitbollo]

During these "big" competitions this is a strategy that could work.
Likewise the teams/nations that host this matches, have often a positive result like a win or a draw. Easy win, despite the low odd.
Anyway it could be really hard to play "hard" or in "all in style".
Just to mention... Argentina and Saudi Arabia. One of the shocking results ever I have seen in a soccer World Cup competition

[Ryu_Ar1]

It can still be done especially for this world cup I think the hype is a bit low compared to the past especially with some countries that might even be unfamiliar to us but making the favorite as a choice could be worth it in some cases.  For now in the early match we're really just looking at a rough idea of the club's performance because even though there's a lot at stake we can't be certain about a team's performance so I think it's hard to use stats as an option but once we see how they're performing (at least for the first game) we have a much bigger picture to bet on.

I find it hard to bet on some teams that I don't know how they will perform because they are quite unfamiliar so even if I do force a bet the end goal might be the favorite or looking for other options like BTTS or Under for now.

[Mia Chloe]

~snip

This season is really gonna be wild. The whole stuff is already getting interesting honestly and for the last match I was expecting exactly 2 - 0 and to my greatest surprise it played out exactly. Honestly I just hope I'd have the courage to place a couple bets on some of the matches.

I think if you are using AI it's more like your are interested in just the money and not necessarily the game per say however betting normally with your guts actually makes the whole experience fun and interesting.

[gracreavix]

One year's data. That's good. And you did it for one year and it worked. And seeing your results, you have made 2 successful bets already. You said no strategy, but what you just did is categorized as a strategy. Anyways, it's nice that you came up with this. Might as well bet one or two on it. But it is still not bad if you use AI. Just for like extra confirmation on it. Just saying. Besides I can already feel the intensiveness of the game already in the air.

[danherbias07]

Bosnia and Herzegovina are up by 1. Canada, as a favorite, may fail. We will see, it is not over yet.

I just came here, but I like the idea. I might follow it. I already placed my bet for the USA @2.08 and Switzerland @1.22. I don't really like odds like x1.01 to x1.30 because of the very low profit, but this is just an experiment that I also want to try.
If I remember correctly, I also did it in Eurobasket, but sometimes the odds are so tight that it's difficult to pick which team is the real favorite.

Anyway, good luck with this, and I hope it will be successful.

[acroman08]

I had 3 bucks left from the $5 freebies degen.com gave, and I had the same idea. I am betting completely blind and only chose the favorite teams and made a combo bet with the US and Canada, so far it is not looking good. Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently in the lead, but there is still a lot of time left, so hopefully Canada could make a comeback.

[Sticky Bomb]

You cannot win everyday just so you know, it is better you stick to taking out a large percentage of the profits you made and perhaps stake back the rest than doing a roll over because you might end up losing everything at some point, the favorites cannot always win, that's just how the game of football is.

I'm no longer a fan of rollovers, having lost my capital a few times of which I should've enjoyed if I just withdrew. It's best to withdraw the profits and continue with your capital at a later time. In this world cup, there's going to be a lot of uncertainties and disappointing results, so it's best to enjoy your profits when they come and maintain your capital, unless you want to use rollover to build your capital to some certain extent before you start taking profits from your winnings, although you may still lose the capital before you get to that margin you're anticipating, that's just the game of football, nothing is guaranteed.

[Merit.s]

I think, this is the best way to bet in this world cup because majority of the favorite teams will always win their matches because the depth of the team and its quality is what will determine the outcome of the game. The good might be low but you will definitely be profitable.

However, if Canada ends up losing this match, it means that bettin6on the favorite doesn't guarantee profits because I believe a lot of gamblers will choose Canada as the favorite. However, any match that you are not sure about the team performance, it's good to avoid betting on it.

[ejikeme24]

~snip

This season is really gonna be wild. The whole stuff is already getting interesting honestly and for the last match I was expecting exactly 2 - 0 and to my greatest surprise it played out exactly. Honestly I just hope I'd have the courage to place a couple bets on some of the matches.

I think if you are using AI it's more like your are interested in just the money and not necessarily the game per say however betting normally with your guts actually makes the whole experience fun and interesting.

It doesn't matter what we are using at this point, it is true that betting with AI is more like the person is only interested in just the wining, at the same time not everyone that uses Thier instinct to bet is playing for fun some might be interested in just the money as well. But everyone have the right to do whatever that pleases them as a matter of fact, you're not the one providing the money for them so I don't see anything wrong if guys decide to gamble for money, I believe even while gambling for the money they still have fun with it not that Thier mind is centered in profit.

[rbynxx]

Nah, even favorites could fall short but having it turns out profitable I think I'll got a bet to tail on now. I can tail this but will be limited to one bet per day I guess, I think having it at final 16 teams is probably great because it filters most of the noise on who to choose best team rather than just the favorite. Nevertheless, I'll tail this and watch this topic. Thanks!

[lodocus]

If the team that seems to be the favorite isn’t a huge favorite, meaning the odds on that team to win aren’t something ridiculous like 1.10, I think this is a strategy well worth trying. There will always be surprises in the World Cup, but if applied properly, I think you could end up with at least a small profit by the end of the tournament. The only rule you need to follow is not to bet a certain amount and think, “This is guaranteed.” If you do that, your bankroll will drop very suddenly and without you even noticing. Stick to the rules you set and see what happens.

[Judith87403]

I'm no longer a fan of rollovers, having lost my capital a few times of which I should've enjoyed if I just withdrew. It's best to withdraw the profits and continue with your capital at a later time. In this world cup, there's going to be a lot of uncertainties and disappointing results, so it's best to enjoy your profits when they come and maintain your capital, unless you want to use rollover to build your capital to some certain extent before you start taking profits from your winnings, although you may still lose the capital before you get to that margin you're anticipating, that's just the game of football, nothing is guaranteed.

Very true, some fans favourites might lose, red cards can occur, different things that people will least expect will start happening and disappointment and regrets will also take place, making people to feel bad and lose their bets unnecessary, that is why nothing is safe in this year World Cup, one just had to bet with what they can lose and expect anything to take place, this can help in keeping their emotions in balanced. Also, they need to got plan and stick by it for better result.

[Gozie51]

I won't bet blindly because a team is tipped as favourite. I believe this tournament will record so many upset because some teams will be looked down on. A team in the world cup is capable of playing at that level and that is why they qualified. For example with the match that just ended between Canada Vs Bosnia and Herzegovina that just ended 1:1, it was expected to be an easy win with Canada for they ended up struggling to get a draw after Bosnia and Herzegovina took the lead in the first half despite having 8+ odds and Canada having lower odd around 1:45.

[Joy_learns_crypto]

Betting on the favorite is definitely going to work very well in this world Cup and I see AI doing wonderfully well even though there is no 100% method. USA and Switzerland are definitely the favorites for their various matches, I only feel that Canada may have a hard time winning Bosnia. Therefore, I would prefer playing the match of Canada 3ways, then combine that with the other matches to get around 3.5 odds.

Canada was the favorite and it did not work. This is the host nation and they have the majority of the fans and it’s the just the third match of the World Cup and picking the favorite did not work.
Cyne Larin helped Canada because it was looking like the goal wasn’t going to come for them although they had the control, and they got their first point in a World Cup but would have spoilt the game for those who picked the favorite.

[Joy- maker]

Betting on the favorite is definitely going to work very well in this world Cup and I see AI doing wonderfully well even though there is no 100% method.

I see it this way too, even though it is the world cup let's not fully concentrate on betting on the favorite teams we need to apply wisdom because football will always be football anything can happen.

Remember every country participating on the FIFA world cup are going to putting their best, never you look down on any team because wonders can happen, the team you expect to win may end losing to opposite team, and do not fully trust AI predictions do your own analysis and statistics and compare them with the predictions Al provided before proceeding with your bet.

[Alphakilo]

You did show how putting the data first above the market noise could be accomplished with this sticking to favorites during the world cup tournament, but one thing to note is that trying this strategy with standard league fixtures is quite different from an international tournament because international tournaments like this world cup stands to challenge the low odds system. There is no predictability because most of the teams have never played against themselves or haven't done so for a long time and being a world stage appearance, under a different coach, we don't expect the players representing their countries to be as spectacular as they do in their league competitions and that skews the maths behind this strategy.

[rachael9385]

one reason why I think that this is not a good d strategy is because even the big teams that you think can always deliver can end up disappointing you when you least expect them to which is why it is best to place your bets based on a statistical point of view at all times so you don't end up getting disappointed.