Sticking with the Favorites : World Cup edition

[stompix]

Since the schedule on this is really weird from my point of view (GMT+2) here, I will just post a full 2 days advance from now on, after all is just picking the one with the lower odds, nothing about analyzing, nothing about thinking this, that, those, think of it like DCA, evey time there is a match you put $1 on it, no matter who plays.

Also, for those who might see small discrepancies between the odds, I always calculate the result based on SP odds, so odds at the start of he match.

4 games in:
3 wins, 1 loss!
Total wagered 4
Total win 3.27

On top of Switzerland, that is right now 1.27 favorite, we have this for the next day:

For example with the match that just ended between Canada Vs Bosnia and Herzegovina that just ended 1:1, it was expected to be an easy win with Canada for they ended up struggling to get a draw after Bosnia and Herzegovina took the lead in the first half despite having 8+ odds and Canada having lower odd around 1:45.

Things that never happened: Episode 1

[Jatiluhung]

At the World Cup, I never hesitate to pick the favorites, even if the odds aren’t always that appealing. However, while there are always surprises at the World Cup, they aren’t as frequent as in regular league competitions. All teams also have FIFA rankings, which can serve as a good indicator of their overall ability.

It’s just that I don’t always bet on every match. But choosing the favorite team seems pretty normal to me. However, there are times when I might pick an underdog like choosing Morocco over Brazil, or something like that. Because I know Morocco has a pretty good chance based on their performance. Anyway, good luck, OP, with your favorite team picks.

And I’m leaving a comment here to keep an eye on the experiments you’re doing. I’m really curious to see how the overall results turn out. 

[shawonngp]

Still, I believe the favourite team pick is not always profitable in the long term. You can expect to win some matches by picking the favourite team, nothing more. Many favourite teams can disappoint us in this World Cup, I think, because many unknown small teams are able to beat big, strong teams in this World Cup, so that many unexpected things will happen. This is just my hypothetical concept. I never unquestioningly favour picking favourites for the long term. I see team squad, defence, and attacking capabilities and considering everything, I often pick small teams also sometimes.

[Wakate]

Still, I believe the favourite team pick is not always profitable in the long term. You can expect to win some matches by picking the favourite team, nothing more. Many favourite teams can disappoint us in this World Cup, I think, because many unknown small teams are able to beat big, strong teams in this World Cup, so that many unexpected things will happen. This is just my hypothetical concept. I never unquestioningly favour picking favourites for the long term. I see team squad, defence, and attacking capabilities and considering everything, I often pick small teams also sometimes.

There are some matches I will never add to my game because I know that they can end up playing a draw instead of a win.
The world cup competition may look easy to predict but it's not if we are not careful about our selections.
Op had made an effort to make a good prediction so far and I don't think I will bet on one or two of the matches for a win except going for number of goals or both team to score.

[Mate2237]

Still, I believe the favourite team pick is not always profitable in the long term. You can expect to win some matches by picking the favourite team, nothing more. Many favourite teams can disappoint us in this World Cup, I think, because many unknown small teams are able to beat big, strong teams in this World Cup, so that many unexpected things will happen. This is just my hypothetical concept. I never unquestioningly favour picking favourites for the long term. I see team squad, defence, and attacking capabilities and considering everything, I often pick small teams also sometimes.

There are some matches I will never add to my game because I know that they can end up playing a draw instead of a win.
The world cup competition may look easy to predict but it's not if we are not careful about our selections.
Op had made an effort to make a good prediction so far and I don't think I will bet on one or two of the matches for a win except going for number of goals or both team to score.

Some games are actually traps which can end up in a goalless draw, we should be very careful especially when a big country is going up against a small country. Some of these small countries are actually in this tournament not to win , but the spoil the part of the big nations. We should be very careful when ever we are choosing are trying to pick any game.


The best option when it comes to this group stage, is to make sure that we play over . This is because there is high probability of plenty of goals coming out in this group stage of the competition placing a straight wine is something we about to cautious about.

[ejikeme24]

I see it this way too, even though it is the world cup let's not fully concentrate on betting on the favorite teams we need to apply wisdom because football will always be football anything can happen.

Sure, while betting on the favorite team it's good to make analysis before betting not just betting blindly, although it's fine if anyone chose to make random selection I mean betting on their favorite teams because not everyone that have time to make analysis before betting. some just pick those teams they know they are more likely to win, if the outcome doesn't work out for them they will just move on without panicking or regret about making such decision.

Remember every country participating on the FIFA world cup are going to putting their best, never you look down on any team because wonders can happen, the team you expect to win may end losing to opposite team, and do not fully trust AI predictions do your own analysis and statistics and compare them with the predictions Al provided before proceeding with your bet.

You're right about that, and of course all the countries that participated are there to win I believe no country is there to joke so for that we shouldn't look down on any team. It's just like what happened in Those league matches where you will see underdog defeating Those teams that look superior, so we May likely experience the same thing in this world cup.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Picking a favorite to win is very difficult. Look at last night, the USA played in an unstoppable way. Those players didn't let Paraguay breathe, a team that isn't playing badly. They left them without arguments, without ideas, dismantling a style of football that had shown some strengths. So, if the USA continues playing like this, I think they could be potential finalists. The best thing about it is that they didn't come to this event as favorites, but as hosts, and importantly, they haven't received any help from the referees just because they're the home team. I would pay attention to the USA, if and only if they maintain that level.

[KTChampions]

Anything to explain? Doubt it, but here it goes  
~


Day 1:
0.50+1.65=2.15 Win

Total wagered 2
Total win 2.15

Next games:
Canada 1.90
Usa 2.15
Switzerland 1.25
Wagered for the day 3
Wagered total 5

Wuhahaha! My favorite threads! Subscribe without hesitation 
I'll be happy to see how it all ends, by the way, maybe it makes sense to separately analyze the results of the group games because this is a clown show and the playoffs? I suspect that betting on the favorites in the group stage may differ in value from betting on the favorites in the playoffs.
And I'll add another 5 cents: it's hard to call a bet on South Korea as low odds bet, and South Korea the favorite  Formally yes, but in fact it doesn't seem so 

[Dogedegen]

Anything to explain? Doubt it, but here it goes  

We had thousands over hundreds over millions of topics on how choosing the favorite is bad long-term, choosing low odds is bad, how there is no strategy, how this and that and little actual data or even worse, close to none of putting the money where the quota typing is.
I actually ran this for a year, which, despite all odds, turned profitable:
Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues!

The thing with attempts like this is that they are nice experiments but they are single cases that do not tell us anything. If it were possible to make a lot of money with betting on favorites consistently then someone would have done it by now. The issue is that doing it for some time such as one year does not tell you anything at all, because you may have 2 years after that which are completely unprofitable following that strategy and they will wipe you out. And if at any point you start questioning individual bets and choosing not to play some matches and similar stuff, you are skewing the data even more to the point where no conclusion at all can be made. If we wanted to seriously check whether this works, we would have to do it at least for 5 years or better 10 years and then have a separation of leagues, competitions or similar because one league being very profitable with this strategy can bail out another and then draw the false result that this can be done.

Still I am interested in the results of this experiment, so I will follow this thread closely.

[Slow death]

This is a very interesting experiment. From what I've seen in these first few games, the favorites are winning more often. In my case, I'm only betting on games that I consider safer after analyzing them and that have worthwhile odds. For example, I bet on Mexico to win, now I'm betting on Brazil to win, I'm also going to bet on Scotland to win, I'm also going to bet on Belgium to win, and I'm also going to bet on France to win. The funny thing is that they are all favorites in their games. But I based my decisions on my own analysis to determine if they were really worth considering as favorites by the bookmakers.

[Odohu]

This world cup is interesting judging by the fee matches we have watch and the favorites are doing wonderfully. Anyone who stick with the favorite is going to make some good funds. However, some surprises will still happen just like Qatar holding Switzerland to a 1:1 score draw even when it was clear that Switzerl and was the favorite. So, this experiment you are dropping and I will be following to see how this will pan out. H

[JiiBs]

Next games:
Canada 1.90
Usa 2.15
Switzerland 1.25
Wagered for the day 3
Wagered total 5

And I'll add another 5 cents: it's hard to call a bet on South Korea as low odds bet, and South Korea the favorite  Formally yes, but in fact it doesn't seem so 

South Korea got the job done against Czechia, despite Czechia having to score first.
2 of the favorites being so far have had their games drawn,

Canada 1:1 Bosnia
Qatar 1:1 Switzerland

One of the most interesting game so far is the USA vs Paraguay fixture. Betting on these host nations is one bet you can count on for a double chance because, they aren’t giving much chances for a loss at this group stage, wouldn’t trust Mexico though.

When we consider the favorites, Swiss just thrashed bets today.