Sticking with the Favorites : World Cup edition

[stompix]

Small update:
12 games
6 wins, 6 losses!
Total wagered 12
Total loss....I'm not kidding    0.01

~
  I understand that.
I'll look at your results and then perhaps make separate calculations for all outcomes where the odds are less than 2.0. I'd still like to know the value of "strong" favorites (50% or higher probability of winning), and not formal ones, as in the case of odds of 3.33 - 3.33 - 3.30.
I'm surprised by Sweden's big win, on the one hand I'm glad I won the bet (1.90), on the other hand what did this disgusting team do before.

Hmm, so since it's easy and just one line in an Excel sheet...
Oh, hell,  Do we include 2.0?

With 2.0:
8 games ,  4 wins 4 losses, obviously total loss -1.76 on an 8 wagered, 22% loss, this is worse than slots!

Side note, betting on the underdog in every game would have been a 3.35 loss on 12 games.
Betting on the underdog when the favorite was under 2.0, it would have been a 2.70 loss.

[rdluffy]

Great timing for your test
I'm doing a similar test, but mine is to see if with the help of AI I can make more profits during this World Cup

I started well, but these crazy World Cup results have already made me lose 4 bets in a row and I think I'm now at a loss, I need to calculate

I think these results surprised everyone
I'll follow this thread

[Japinat]

Good luck bro, it is hard for me to follow that kind of betting because based on my experience, I lose in the long run when betting on favorites only, especially moneyline.

But you have a record, so I hope you will be able to update it consistently so we can see if that method of yours is really profitable, if it is then I might reconsider changing my strategy since I am anti-favorites for now.

2% loss, this is worse than slots!

Too early to conclude.. things could turn around, just continue.

[rachael9385]

Great timing for your test
I'm doing a similar test, but mine is to see if with the help of AI I can make more profits during this World Cup

I started well, but these crazy World Cup results have already made me lose 4 bets in a row and I think I'm now at a loss, I need to calculate

I think these results surprised everyone
I'll follow this thread

4 losses? It takes resilience to keep on trying after failing four times. To some people four times might not seem like a lot but for me I give up easily. This test shows you that there are no guarantees when it comes betting, Ai cannot predict football accurately even though it's intelligent. Predicting a competition like the world cup is difficult.

[r_victory]

Low odds don't matter; in my opinion, the important thing is to win the bets. We know this cup has the most teams and matches of all. Winning little by little, in the end the amount won will be considerable. I will follow this experience closely and good luck OP...

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Are this going to be seperate bets or you will be combining the bets into one ticket as a parley?
The former is good but the later is something I would advice against if yoh really want to go far till the end in this testing or experiment.

Few days ago, I build a parley where all the bets where in the favorite to win against their opponents, but unfortunately, the match that ended the parley was the Brazil verse Morocco where they both scored 1 : 1, ending the match in a draw whereas I had predicted or betted on Brazil to win that match.
It was all for fun anyway as the money I spent on the bet wasn't even tangible, but I really hoped that the ticket stayed active for some more time.

Wishing you luck in your quest and experiment anyway.

[Slow death]

Yesterday Ivory Coast won. If memory serves me right, they weren't the favorites, but to compensate, Sweden, who were considered favorites, won. So I see it wasn't a bad day. For the remaining games today, I believe that if you bet on the favorites, you might have little profit or losses. For example, Spain is the favorite with odds of @1.06, a very insignificant odd

and to make matters worse, the Spanish coach didn't start certain good players like Yamal, David Raya, Mikel Merino, Dani Olmo, and Nilo Williams. So betting on Spain's victory wouldn't even be worthwhile with such extremely low odds. In another game, Belgium against Egypt, it's worth betting on the favorite, which is Belgium, with odds of @1.58, and if you get the favorites right, your profit would be small.

[Su-asa]

From what you have said, it seems you are putting in effort to managing the risks by avoiding somethings like the martingale, roll overs and so on. It is always important to avoid anything that increases the risks no matter the strategy you decide to follow. But one thing that you should know is that it is very risky to stick to just the favorites alone especially when betting on competitions like the world cup because a country that you least expect might end up winning. As a bettor that's strategic this is something you must be conscious of .

[KTChampions]

Small update:
12 games
6 wins, 6 losses!
Total wagered 12
Total loss....I'm not kidding    0.01

~
  I understand that.
I'll look at your results and then perhaps make separate calculations for all outcomes where the odds are less than 2.0. I'd still like to know the value of "strong" favorites (50% or higher probability of winning), and not formal ones, as in the case of odds of 3.33 - 3.33 - 3.30.
I'm surprised by Sweden's big win, on the one hand I'm glad I won the bet (1.90), on the other hand what did this disgusting team do before.

Hmm, so since it's easy and just one line in an Excel sheet...
Oh, hell,  Do we include 2.0?

With 2.0:
8 games ,  4 wins 4 losses, obviously total loss -1.76 on an 8 wagered, 22% loss, this is worse than slots!

Side note, betting on the underdog in every game would have been a 3.35 loss on 12 games.
Betting on the underdog when the favorite was under 2.0, it would have been a 2.70 loss.

Well well well... Your strategy is better than the others so far (although the distance is too small to draw conclusions), but I'm concerned that we're moving in a direction that, unfortunately, we should mathematically end up in - the bookmakers will win in all scenarios 
Meanwhile, Spain has probably already destroyed a ton of bettors by not scoring in the first half. The odds are 1.22 lol, I'm still not interested. I'll probably take a chance with Belgium - 70%, it's worth the risk.

[AmoreJaz]

I wish you all the best but you must understand that this isn't a strategy that you can really trust one hundred percent because the so called favorites cannot always be in their best form and if you are only sticking up favorites there would be a loss waiting for you at some point because not all favourites can end up winning their matches. This is the reason why I prefer to stick to mixing up different options.

Let's enjoy this thread where OP only sticks with favorites for the World Cup, if he manages to take profit in the end then that could be another good lesson for those who always bet in favor of favorites but if OP somehow losses money by sticking with the favorites then again people can learn from that.

Sometimes, sticking with favorites works especially when we're talking about World Cup but again it's also true that the favorites don't win always and sometimes the weaker team might play better to win the favorite team. That's discussion for another thread, as of this one we should just see what will happen in the end.

They are favorites for so many reasons and so the likelihood that they will win is quite high. That's why it is quite reassuring if you bet on favorites but don't get your hopes high because upsets do happen. But if you are an avid follower of WC, you will also get the feel who's on the winning side and who's not. Because as you familiarize yourself on this event, you will have a very good grasp on what's going on in every game and whose team has very good advantage with their games.

[EluguHcman]

Likewise the teams/nations that host this matches, have often a positive result like a win or a draw. Easy win, despite the low odd.

Oh... That sounds like the teams home advantages which we usually gives the teams that are playing home the high probabilities of having an edge over the other teams even though the team is an underdogs.

The USA has also been one of the favorites and since they are the country hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup it is to be believed that they are playing home with whatever team playing away.

But I won't blindly bet on the US against every team for this thought because when two strong teams meet, one will go or maybe if they draws on full time penalties would decide who wins.
Nevertheless, I don't see the USA being at the topmost but until then. This is football where the unexpected happens.

[barbara44]

This is a good experiment, but I want to say just sticking with wins and losses has never been going to work in a few cases. Punters can go with other markets as well, like over/under and both teams to score. This can give better results because a few years back we also did an experiment like this and ended with a good loss because the favourite never gave a good end.

OP has a good history of doing things like this in the past as well. Just because of this, hopefully he will have a good strategy, which will help him stay positive because this World Cup is having enough surprises, which already started with a few big teams already ending their games in a draw or loss, which is an unbelievable odds.

[SamReomo]

They are favorites for so many reasons and so the likelihood that they will win is quite high. That's why it is quite reassuring if you bet on favorites but don't get your hopes high because upsets do happen.

Although, favorites have high chance of winning or that's what most of us think but to be honest sometimes weaker teams can perform much better and they win the match while the favorites lose. So it depends on preparation of the teams, if a favorite team performs better than the weaker team will never be able to win it but if the weaker team somehow performs better than the favorite will lose against it or we might see draw matches sometimes.

[jeremypwr]

If I'm betting on the World Cup, I'd say 95% of the time I am siding with the favorite.
There is just something about this sport that makes it hard for me to take the dog; even at plus money.

[Rabata]

If you only support the good team, the results may be good, but it will not last long. Since the good teams will play against some weak teams at the beginning of the World Cup, the winning statistics of the strong teams will be good, but once the group stage is over, it will be difficult to analyze who is good and who is bad. There is no guarantee that if you support the favorite team among those who will play in the knockout matches, you will get very good results. You will have to change your strategy in those matches. Even if you focus on other bets instead of just team win, you can get relatively good results there.

[Exitoral]

Small update:
12 games
6 wins, 6 losses!
Total wagered 12
Total loss....I'm not kidding    0.01

~
  I understand that.
I'll look at your results and then perhaps make separate calculations for all outcomes where the odds are less than 2.0. I'd still like to know the value of "strong" favorites (50% or higher probability of winning), and not formal ones, as in the case of odds of 3.33 - 3.33 - 3.30.
I'm surprised by Sweden's big win, on the one hand I'm glad I won the bet (1.90), on the other hand what did this disgusting team do before.

Hmm, so since it's easy and just one line in an Excel sheet...
Oh, hell,  Do we include 2.0?

With 2.0:
8 games ,  4 wins 4 losses, obviously total loss -1.76 on an 8 wagered, 22% loss, this is worse than slots!

Side note, betting on the underdog in every game would have been a 3.35 loss on 12 games.
Betting on the underdog when the favorite was under 2.0, it would have been a 2.70 loss.

This is cool man. I was expecting nothing less than 2 wins, 6 losses. Since your strategy is good. But no wins, no lose. Even though I see wins and loss. What I really see is break even. No win, no loss. Your money still intact. But you should total loss. Seems the odd may be higher on the lossing end. Could be an odd was a little bit higher. Which made that excess loss figure even though you have 6 wins and 6 loss. Still good man. Keep it up.

[Silverstonez]

When it comes to the FIFA world cup betting on the favorite teams is always the best thing to do. I said so because world cup matches can easily be predicted, judging from the countries playing and their squad. However, we don’t have to blindly bet on the favorite teams, lets also do some analysis before betting on them. remember this is football and there are things that happen in football matches and those things can still take place in the FIFA world cup, e.g. favorite team losing to the other team so let's be guided.

[Sim_card]

Low odds don't matter; in my opinion, the important thing is to win the bets. We know this cup has the most teams and matches of all. Winning little by little, in the end the amount won will be considerable. I will follow this experience closely and good luck OP...

I have just observed that it's not most of the time these favorite teams do win their . matches especially, when they're playing with a team they underestimated. I don't know why it was so difficult for Spain to find the back of the net. I will follow my instincts if I'm to bet in this group stage.

[Dogedegen]

Low odds don't matter; in my opinion, the important thing is to win the bets. We know this cup has the most teams and matches of all. Winning little by little, in the end the amount won will be considerable. I will follow this experience closely and good luck OP...

Of course they do, personal opinions do not have a place when it comes to numbers. If you are always using low odds, then you need to avoid losing for very long consecutive streaks of games to avoid losing money. In other words you have to have long winning streaks or you will be wiped out by the occasional lose. This is why nobody has ever gotten rich by playing very low odds. Most likely the data would show that people who play odds very close to 1 are always losing money in the long run, probably there is number at which it balances itself out and after that one the closer you get to playing odds of 1 on average the higher your failure rate. So simply writing the important thing is to win the bets is not good because that implies the possibility that consecutive winning streaks are possible in reality and that people can do them consistently, but they can't.

If I'm betting on the World Cup, I'd say 95% of the time I am siding with the favorite.
There is just something about this sport that makes it hard for me to take the dog; even at plus money.

Are you saying that the World Cup is some sort of outliers where the underdogs do not make surprises as often as they do in other tournaments? Do you have data that backs this claim up or is it just something that you think? It would not be that hard to analyze this each year, simply count up the number of underdog surprises in a given cup in one year and compare to others in that same year and then do it for many times it has happened.