Sticking with the Favorites : World Cup edition

[Myleschetty]

Anything to explain? Doubt it, but here it goes  

We had thousands over hundreds over millions of topics on how choosing the favorite is bad long-term, choosing low odds is bad, how there is no strategy, how this and that and little actual data or even worse, close to none of putting the money where the quota typing is.
I actually ran this for a year, which, despite all odds, turned profitable:
Betting experiment with low odds on football main leagues!

If we do the proper analysis, determine the likelihood that the game will go in our favor, and use the match handicap to our advantage, I don't see anything wrong with picking favorites or low odds in sports betting. Even though no strategy can consistently produce positive results, at least we're putting our money where our mouth is.

no Fibonacci, no Fleshlight

due to curiosity. Do people who bet on sports also use fib?

[nelson4lov]

Only a few favorites doing really well in this world cup otherwise PnL would've been much higher. Have you also considered backing Favorites during their live matches too? For instance, Germany odds went up 3-5x today from prematch simply because they were down 0-1 against Ivory coast and Ivory coast were out-playing. Might be something to consider so even though you do lose for backing favorites, at least you're losing at great odds.

[junder]

Only a few favorites doing really well in this world cup otherwise PnL would've been much higher. Have you also considered backing Favorites during their live matches too? For instance, Germany odds went up 3-5x today from prematch simply because they were down 0-1 against Ivory coast and Ivory coast were out-playing. Might be something to consider so even though you do lose for backing favorites, at least you're losing at great odds.

I myself don't consider supporting my favorite team anymore, but actually I'm more about the players so I automatically support the team too and even if the player I idolize retires, I don't know which team to root for. And this does not apply to the world cup alone but with domestic league matches or UCL as well.

[rachael9385]

I myself don't consider supporting my favorite team anymore, but actually I'm more about the players so I automatically support the team too and even if the player I idolize retires, I don't know which team to root for. And this does not apply to the world cup alone but with domestic league matches or UCL as well.

It is best to always stay neutral as a bettor but if you are just a gambler that prefers to gamble for fun or just a football fan then you can continue sticking with your favorite team. As a strategic bettor supporting your favorite team can be very dangerous because there are times they would definitely fail you.

[sotelorene]

Only a few favorites doing really well in this world cup otherwise PnL would've been much higher. Have you also considered backing Favorites during their live matches too? For instance, Germany odds went up 3-5x today from prematch simply because they were down 0-1 against Ivory coast and Ivory coast were out-playing. Might be something to consider so even though you do lose for backing favorites, at least you're losing at great odds.

I myself don't consider supporting my favorite team anymore, but actually I'm more about the players so I automatically support the team too and even if the player I idolize retires, I don't know which team to root for. And this does not apply to the world cup alone but with domestic league matches or UCL as well.

I fan clubs and I also have favorite players but i don't let that get into my head because it is more like a waste of time to me because people who I am faning and the teams I am supporting cannot give me food or job so why should I kill myself or involve myself in an argument that can lead to a fight. Moreover, even when I am gambling I don't do favorite players or teams because my money is involve so I have to be very careful while making my selections though winning is not certain.

[junder]

It is best to always stay neutral as a bettor but if you are just a gambler that prefers to gamble for fun or just a football fan then you can continue sticking with your favorite team. As a strategic bettor supporting your favorite team can be very dangerous because there are times they would definitely fail you.

Actually I rarely do sports betting and the sports betting I do is when my idol players compete and even then not in all matches so only when I want to. And with disappointment it is certain because even if the team is good it does not mean it cannot be defeated, but it is good in my opinion when the team we support loses we do not rebel because there is no point either.

[stompix]

Minor update before  Jordan Algeria:

43 games
27 wins, 16 losses!
Total wagered 43
Total profit 2.91

To be honest, not bad!

Only a few favorites doing really well in this world cup otherwise PnL would've been much higher. Have you also considered backing Favorites during their live matches too? For instance, Germany odds went up 3-5x today from prematch simply because they were down 0-1 against Ivory coast and Ivory coast were out-playing. Might be something to consider so even though you do lose for backing favorites, at least you're losing at great odds.

There is no way you could do that..
You would need to always check the odds, wait for a favorite to stumble upon something, it's impossible for a continuous experiment,  plus how would one even choose them, when the favorite doesn't score for x, when the underdog scores against it, neah, that's live betting stuff that might end with 1 or 2 opportunities per round.

[famososMuertos]

The thing is, if betting on favorites were profitable, casinos would be bankrupt. In any case, if there’s one place where your conjecture might work, it’s the World Cup, and it’s actually where you can find very profitable odds.

Just today, Norway were favorites at over 2x odds, but despite leading 3–1, they ended up on the ropes after Senegal pulled it back to 3–2 and nearly equalised the game.

Your experiment might work in the first three rounds, but then the odds tend to even out, and your curve (if it happens to be positive) will only hold until the matchups become more balanced, something like 1.5 vs 1.8. After that, simply choosing the “best odds” won’t be enough.

Anyway, VGG/lucky

[TedMosby]

Minor update before  Jordan Algeria:

43 games
27 wins, 16 losses!
Total wagered 43
Total profit 2.91

To be honest, not bad!

[...]

Is that total profit based on your initial capital or based on the total stake?


BTW, I double checked the strategy using data from OddsPortal [1]. Here is the simulation of betting $5 on each match:

Match	Odds 1/X/2	Favorite	Result	PnL
Mexico vs South Africa	1.48 / 4.62 / 9.21	Mexico	W	+2.40
South Korea vs Czech Rep	2.71 / 3.18 / 3.25	South Korea	W	+8.55
Canada vs Bosnia	1.95 / 3.61 / 5.15	Canada	L	-5.00
USA vs Paraguay	2.15 / 3.38 / 4.31	USA	W	+5.75
Qatar vs Switzerland	18.50 / 7.89 / 1.22	Switzerland	L	-5.00
Brazil vs Morocco	1.72 / 3.90 / 6.00	Brazil	L	-5.00
Haiti vs Scotland	6.25 / 4.41 / 1.66	Scotland	W	+3.30
Australia vs Turkey	5.66 / 3.80 / 1.80	Turkey	L	-5.00
Germany vs Curacao	1.06 / 24.00 / 75.48	Germany	W	+0.30
Netherlands vs Japan	2.10 / 3.61 / 4.11	Netherlands	L	-5.00
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador	3.42 / 3.09 / 2.70	Ecuador	L	-5.00
Sweden vs Tunisia	2.00 / 3.51 / 5.05	Sweden	W	+5.00
Spain vs Cape Verde	1.11 / 13.20 / 35.00	Spain	L	-5.00
Belgium vs Egypt	1.57 / 4.50 / 7.45	Belgium	L	-5.00
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay	8.00 / 4.33 / 1.55	Uruguay	L	-5.00
Iran vs New Zealand	1.90 / 3.60 / 4.91	Iran	L	-5.00
France vs Senegal	1.53 / 4.67 / 7.62	France	W	+2.65
Iraq vs Norway	15.00 / 7.49 / 1.27	Norway	W	+1.35
Argentina vs Algeria	1.58 / 4.21 / 7.37	Argentina	W	+2.90
Austria vs Jordan	1.42 / 4.85 / 10.50	Austria	W	+2.10
Portugal vs DR Congo	1.31 / 5.80 / 13.00	Portugal	L	-5.00
England vs Croatia	1.73 / 3.96 / 5.90	England	W	+3.65
Ghana vs Panama	2.45 / 3.26 / 3.47	Ghana	W	+7.25
Uzbekistan vs Colombia	12.50 / 5.60 / 1.37	Colombia	W	+1.85
Czech Rep vs South Africa	1.95 / 3.61 / 4.74	Czech Rep	L	-5.00
Switzerland vs Bosnia	1.63 / 4.30 / 6.66	Switzerland	W	+3.15
Canada vs Qatar	1.30 / 6.30 / 14.00	Canada	W	+1.50
Mexico vs South Korea	2.15 / 3.35 / 4.50	Mexico	W	+5.75
USA vs Australia	1.70 / 4.49 / 6.50	USA	W	+3.50
Scotland vs Morocco	6.01 / 3.84 / 1.75	Morocco	W	+3.75
Brazil vs Haiti	1.14 / 11.70 / 26.00	Brazil	W	+0.70
Turkey vs Paraguay	2.17 / 3.45 / 4.32	Turkey	L	-5.00
Netherlands vs Sweden	1.77 / 4.15 / 5.20	Netherlands	W	+3.85
Germany vs Ivory Coast	1.50 / 4.91 / 7.36	Germany	W	+2.50
Ecuador vs Curacao	1.17 / 9.59 / 26.00	Ecuador	L	-5.00
Tunisia vs Japan	9.25 / 4.70 / 1.50	Japan	W	+2.50
Spain vs Saudi Arabia	1.13 / 11.70 / 31.00	Spain	W	+0.65
Belgium vs Iran	1.45 / 4.81 / 8.74	Belgium	L	-5.00
Uruguay vs Cape Verde	1.42 / 4.85 / 10.00	Uruguay	L	-5.00
New Zealand vs Egypt	6.25 / 3.97 / 1.66	Egypt	W	+3.30
Argentina vs Austria	1.53 / 4.79 / 8.60	Argentina	W	+2.65
France vs Iraq	1.10 / 13.61 / 46.00	France	W	+0.50
Norway vs Senegal	2.55 / 3.50 / 3.24	Norway	W	+7.75
Jordan vs Algeria	8.10 / 4.65 / 1.53	Algeria	W	+2.65

Summary:
Wins: 28
Losses: 16
Total Stake: $220
Net Profit: +$11.75
ROI: +5.34%
Win Rate: 63.64%

Source:
[1] https://www.oddsportal.com/football/world/world-championship-2026/results/

[Cointxz]

Minor update before  Jordan Algeria:

43 games
27 wins, 16 losses!
Total wagered 43
Total profit 2.91

To be honest, not bad!

[...]

Is that total profit based on your initial capital or based on the total stake?


BTW, I double checked the strategy using data from OddsPortal [1]. Here is the simulation of betting $5 on each match:

Match	Odds 1/X/2	Favorite	Result	PnL
Mexico vs South Africa	1.48 / 4.62 / 9.21	Mexico	W	+2.40
South Korea vs Czech Rep	2.71 / 3.18 / 3.25	South Korea	W	+8.55
Canada vs Bosnia	1.95 / 3.61 / 5.15	Canada	L	-5.00
USA vs Paraguay	2.15 / 3.38 / 4.31	USA	W	+5.75
Qatar vs Switzerland	18.50 / 7.89 / 1.22	Switzerland	L	-5.00
Brazil vs Morocco	1.72 / 3.90 / 6.00	Brazil	L	-5.00
Haiti vs Scotland	6.25 / 4.41 / 1.66	Scotland	W	+3.30
Australia vs Turkey	5.66 / 3.80 / 1.80	Turkey	L	-5.00
Germany vs Curacao	1.06 / 24.00 / 75.48	Germany	W	+0.30
Netherlands vs Japan	2.10 / 3.61 / 4.11	Netherlands	L	-5.00
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador	3.42 / 3.09 / 2.70	Ecuador	L	-5.00
Sweden vs Tunisia	2.00 / 3.51 / 5.05	Sweden	W	+5.00
Spain vs Cape Verde	1.11 / 13.20 / 35.00	Spain	L	-5.00
Belgium vs Egypt	1.57 / 4.50 / 7.45	Belgium	L	-5.00
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay	8.00 / 4.33 / 1.55	Uruguay	L	-5.00
Iran vs New Zealand	1.90 / 3.60 / 4.91	Iran	L	-5.00
France vs Senegal	1.53 / 4.67 / 7.62	France	W	+2.65
Iraq vs Norway	15.00 / 7.49 / 1.27	Norway	W	+1.35
Argentina vs Algeria	1.58 / 4.21 / 7.37	Argentina	W	+2.90
Austria vs Jordan	1.42 / 4.85 / 10.50	Austria	W	+2.10
Portugal vs DR Congo	1.31 / 5.80 / 13.00	Portugal	L	-5.00
England vs Croatia	1.73 / 3.96 / 5.90	England	W	+3.65
Ghana vs Panama	2.45 / 3.26 / 3.47	Ghana	W	+7.25
Uzbekistan vs Colombia	12.50 / 5.60 / 1.37	Colombia	W	+1.85
Czech Rep vs South Africa	1.95 / 3.61 / 4.74	Czech Rep	L	-5.00
Switzerland vs Bosnia	1.63 / 4.30 / 6.66	Switzerland	W	+3.15
Canada vs Qatar	1.30 / 6.30 / 14.00	Canada	W	+1.50
Mexico vs South Korea	2.15 / 3.35 / 4.50	Mexico	W	+5.75
USA vs Australia	1.70 / 4.49 / 6.50	USA	W	+3.50
Scotland vs Morocco	6.01 / 3.84 / 1.75	Morocco	W	+3.75
Brazil vs Haiti	1.14 / 11.70 / 26.00	Brazil	W	+0.70
Turkey vs Paraguay	2.17 / 3.45 / 4.32	Turkey	L	-5.00
Netherlands vs Sweden	1.77 / 4.15 / 5.20	Netherlands	W	+3.85
Germany vs Ivory Coast	1.50 / 4.91 / 7.36	Germany	W	+2.50
Ecuador vs Curacao	1.17 / 9.59 / 26.00	Ecuador	L	-5.00
Tunisia vs Japan	9.25 / 4.70 / 1.50	Japan	W	+2.50
Spain vs Saudi Arabia	1.13 / 11.70 / 31.00	Spain	W	+0.65
Belgium vs Iran	1.45 / 4.81 / 8.74	Belgium	L	-5.00
Uruguay vs Cape Verde	1.42 / 4.85 / 10.00	Uruguay	L	-5.00
New Zealand vs Egypt	6.25 / 3.97 / 1.66	Egypt	W	+3.30
Argentina vs Austria	1.53 / 4.79 / 8.60	Argentina	W	+2.65
France vs Iraq	1.10 / 13.61 / 46.00	France	W	+0.50
Norway vs Senegal	2.55 / 3.50 / 3.24	Norway	W	+7.75
Jordan vs Algeria	8.10 / 4.65 / 1.53	Algeria	W	+2.65

Summary:
Wins: 28
Losses: 16
Total Stake: $220
Net Profit: +$11.75
ROI: +5.34%
Win Rate: 63.64%

Source:
[1] https://www.oddsportal.com/football/world/world-championship-2026/results/

I’m surprised to see a 63.64% winning percentage on a 1x2 bet since it’s theoretically 33.33% chance of winning assuming the number of choices only.

The reason why this stats still ends up in profit is because of the 1x2 type of bet or else it will receive a much lower odds on a regular money line type of bet.

Interestingly, Draw might be not a popular result on world cup?

[KTChampions]

Minor update before  Jordan Algeria:

43 games
27 wins, 16 losses!
Total wagered 43
Total profit 2.91

To be honest, not bad!

To be honest, it’s an excellent result (since mathematically we should be in the minus over such a significant distance).

Is that total profit based on your initial capital or based on the total stake?


BTW, I double checked the strategy using data from OddsPortal [1]. Here is the simulation of betting $5 on each match:
~
Summary:
Wins: 28
Losses: 16
Total Stake: $220
Net Profit: +$11.75
ROI: +5.34%
Win Rate: 63.64%

Source:
[1] https://www.oddsportal.com/football/world/world-championship-2026/results/

Your 5 bucks is equal to one unit of his bet. And your numbers are roughly the same: you have 5.34% and he has 6.76%. I think the difference is explained by the fact that you took different odds: you took them at the close of the line, and he took them a little earlier. I see that the odds of the favorites are constantly falling sharply. For example, yesterday Portugal was 1.18, and now it's 1.14.
Anyway, thanks for your work and extra checking!

[L E G E N D A R Y]

It is best to always stay neutral as a bettor but if you are just a gambler that prefers to gamble for fun or just a football fan then you can continue sticking with your favorite team. As a strategic bettor supporting your favorite team can be very dangerous because there are times they would definitely fail you.

It’s either they stick with their favourites with the mindset of responsible gambling or they better stay neutral because the game might not go as they want it, which they will be disappointed about it and might even feel bad about it and it can be damaged their plans. That is why they have to definitely make a good choice or decision on what to do when it comes to football, so that they won’t later regret about their actions and this game is not what one can controlled it.

[stompix]

Is that total profit based on your initial capital or based on the total stake?

Stake, I just use the usual stuff from horse racing, every bet is £1 or $1, pretty easy then to work with every result.
Also, thanks for confirming my numbers with the slight deviation.

I’m surprised to see a 63.64% winning percentage on a 1x2 bet since it’s theoretically 33.33% chance of winning assuming the number of choices only.

That's not how percentages and possibilities work  

I think the difference is explained by the fact that you took different odds: you took them at the close of the line, and he took them a little earlier.

Nope, the difference is where he lives and where I do...
Both he and I we're using SP, we were using the same portal, the problem is that Oddsportal gives you the list of bookies for your region, and those have different odds.

His odds:

Mexico vs South Africa   1.48 / 4.62 / 9.21   Mexico   W   +2.40
South Korea vs Czech Rep   2.71 / 3.18 / 3.25   South Korea   W   +8.55
Canada vs Bosnia   1.95 / 3.61 / 5.15   Canada   L   -5.00
USA vs Paraguay   2.15 / 3.38 / 4.31   USA   W   +5.75
Qatar vs Switzerland   18.50 / 7.89 / 1.22   Switzerland   L   -5.00

6.70

Mine

Mexico vs South Africa   1.50/4.65/9.00   Mexico   W   +2.50
South Korea vs Czech Rep   2.65/3.30/3.15   South Korea   W   +8.25
Canada vs Bosnia   1.92/3.60/5.05    Canada   L   -5.00
USA vs Paraguay   2.12 / 3.30 / 4.15   USA   W   +5.60
Qatar vs Switzerland   19.00 / 7.00 / 1.24 Switzerland   L   -5.00

6.35

Ironically, I'm lower than him in the first five matches but I have 07 points advantage on better odds in like 4 consecutive winning bets with Austria, France, and England!
Once this is over, I'll switch through 3 or 4 VPN to see the losing country odds-wise

[Cointxz]

I’m surprised to see a 63.64% winning percentage on a 1x2 bet since it’s theoretically 33.33% chance of winning assuming the number of choices only.

That's not how percentages and possibilities work  

Yeah. That’s just my lazy ass approximate based on the number of choices since computing the true probability is hard for me. I’m just amazed on the profitability for choosing a favorites bets for this kind of bet type.

I’m expecting a figure that is negative or near to breakeven considering the existence of the draw on the options.

Anyway, this is a nice ride so far.

[SamReomo]

We'll have to be part of this thread  to see what will be the results, as far as I believe there's chance of profit especially in semi-finals and finals. But, even if there will be some losses we can at least learn a lot from this thread. In last few matches why not to use a strategy like Martingale strategy because one would be very unlucky to lose many matches consecutively by betting on favorites. stompix have you thought about applying Martingale or similar strategy in last few matches of the world cup?

[KTChampions]

I think the difference is explained by the fact that you took different odds: you took them at the close of the line, and he took them a little earlier.

Nope, the difference is where he lives and where I do...
Both he and I we're using SP, we were using the same portal, the problem is that Oddsportal gives you the list of bookies for your region, and those have different odds.

His odds:

Mexico vs South Africa   1.48 / 4.62 / 9.21   Mexico   W   +2.40

6.70
Mine

Mexico vs South Africa   1.50/4.65/9.00   Mexico   W   +2.50

6.35
Ironically, I'm lower than him in the first five matches but I have 07 points advantage on better odds in like 4 consecutive winning bets with Austria, France, and England!
Once this is over, I'll switch through 3 or 4 VPN to see the losing country odds-wise

Good! I didn't know about this nuance since I don't use this portal. I wonder what the odds would be for me, but I won't check it, since I don't trust local bookmakers 
Well, it’s even better that your strategy is being tested in another region, and the results are similar.
There's exactly a third left before the first cutoff, let's see if we stay in the black. I think there will be a lot of illogical games now, as some teams will play relaxed, and some will be cunning ((trying to figure out the best path to the playoffs)), however, bookmakers will take this into account in the odds.

[stompix]

New update after Japan-Sweden

58 games
38 wins, 20 losses!
Total wagered 58
Total profit 4.71

Well, up to date, it beats bonds, it beats MSTR, it kind of beats crypto on those returns for less than one month!  

There's exactly a third left before the first cutoff, let's see if we stay in the black. I think there will be a lot of illogical games now, as some teams will play relaxed, and some will be cunning ((trying to figure out the best path to the playoffs)), however, bookmakers will take this into account in the odds.

Well, f Germany for this!  
I knew it the moment I saw they were qualified from the first spot, no matter what.

In last few matches why not to use a strategy like Martingale strategy because one would be very unlucky to lose many matches consecutively by betting on favorites. stompix have you thought about applying Martingale or similar strategy in last few matches of the world cup?

Because Martingale is a money-draining strategy!
I used Martingale for horse racing, I had a thread about it, but it worked because I was putting down small sums since there were 15-20 races a day and I had a stopgap. Here, you have a few games in total.

You need to make $100...so you bet on the Netherlands, they draw with Japan, and you need to...
Put down 1000 to recover the money since Spain is 1.10 favorite in the next match, and ..0-0 with Cape Verde
You're down 1100, Belgium was the favorite 1.6 with Egypt, you need to put down $2000 for $100 win...1-1
Now you're down $3100 in total and Uruguay which was 1.55 ended 1-1 with Saudi Arabia...
Then Iran New Zealand 2-2
Basically, now you're down more $100 bills than matches left to play this cup and the next!

[SamReomo]

Because Martingale is a money-draining strategy!
I used Martingale for horse racing, I had a thread about it, but it worked because I was putting down small sums since there were 15-20 races a day and I had a stopgap. Here, you have a few games in total.

Yes, Martingale strategy is a money draining strategy but sometimes it works especially when both teams have close odds, but when there's gap between the odds then such a strategy is not going to work. It would be great to see that horse racing thread where you used the Martingale strategy, can you share link of that thread?

You need to make $100...so you bet on the Netherlands, they draw with Japan, and you need to...
Put down 1000 to recover the money since Spain is 1.10 favorite in the next match, and ..0-0 with Cape Verde
You're down 1100, Belgium was the favorite 1.6 with Egypt, you need to put down $2000 for $100 win...1-1
Now you're down $3100 in total and Uruguay which was 1.55 ended 1-1 with Saudi Arabia...
Then Iran New Zealand 2-2
Basically, now you're down more $100 bills than matches left to play this cup and the next!

Yes, you're right, with those odds a strategy like Martingale will fail, it can't be used properly when there's huge gap in odds of competing teams. In some matches when favorite and the weaker team both have similar odds then such a strategy might work. Again, this time World cup is very unpredictable because those favorites were good enough to win, but instead of wins we saw some draws. So yes, in such case it's better to avoid using Martingale or any such strategy and keeping up with favorites with same bet amount is much better.

[stompix]

Yes, Martingale strategy is a money draining strategy but sometimes it works especially when both teams have close odds, but when there's gap between the odds then such a strategy is not going to work. It would be great to see that horse racing thread where you used the Martingale strategy, can you share link of that thread?

Here you go:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5547322.0

I stopped after 3 weeks because it was of no interest in it anymore I kept the experiment going like for 2 months. I didn't get wiped but I had to go to $600 in bankroll to make $1, and it was nauseating just to keep it going, let alone to report it and to make nice tables on it.
Then again, despite it being successful for what it lasted, I would not recommend it to anyone!




 

[SamReomo]

Here you go:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5547322.0

I stopped after 3 weeks because it was of no interest in it anymore I kept the experiment going like for 2 months. I didn't get wiped but I had to go to $600 in bankroll to make $1, and it was nauseating just to keep it going, let alone to report it and to make nice tables on it.
Then again, despite it being successful for what it lasted, I would not recommend it to anyone!

Thanks for the link of that thread, I read some good posts in that thread and almost read most of your posts and honestly it wasn't a bad experiment. I'm not that interested in horse racing but since you're the starter of the thread I knew I could learn something from it.

The experiment was a good one and for many days and many bets I believe you were in profit and if someone applies this strategy successfully then there's chance to make some good profits but again one's luck has to favor him/her for that profit.

$600 in bankroll to make $1 doesn't make any sense and if you had lost that bet then the losses would be much higher than the profit. However, as an experiment it was a good one.