Can we really fade the public without checking betting splits first?

[Japinat]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

If we want to use that as part of our decision, then we should at least look for reliable websites that offer free betting splits or public betting percentages. Sites like Action Network, VSiN, or DraftKings betting splits can give us some signs where most public bets are going.

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

Links that may help:

Code:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting
https://vsin.com/betting-splits/
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/

[Hardyrobust]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

If we want to use that as part of our decision, then we should at least look for reliable websites that offer free betting splits or public betting percentages. Sites like Action Network, VSiN, or DraftKings betting splits can give us some signs where most public bets are going.

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

Links that may help:

Code:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting
https://vsin.com/betting-splits/
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/

If we are to bet the opposite side of what the public is betting, this to me is not a better strategy at all  because sometimes the fact that majority of bettors are all betting in one direction doesn't mean the opposite side is going to be the right side to take. I believe there is need for thorough analysis and research before we can conclude or decide to take the opposite side that majority of bettors do take. Lime movement may not truly reflect how a bet may end because it can be misleading at times hence there should be need for a gambler to take time to analyse there bet to avoid making unnecessary mistakes because of thinking that the odd is always going against the majority of bettors.

[Japinat]

If we are to bet the opposite side of what the public is betting, this to me is not a better strategy at all  because sometimes the fact that majority of bettors are all betting in one direction doesn't mean the opposite side is going to be the right side to take.

That is what I already mentioned in the topic, you do not do it blindly, that is why there are stats to check,
Have you checked the link in the OP?
What do you think about those stats, are they reliable?

I believe there is need for thorough analysis and research before we can conclude or decide to take the opposite side that majority of bettors do take. Lime movement may not truly reflect how a bet may end because it can be misleading at times hence there should be need for a gambler to take time to analyse there bet to avoid making unnecessary mistakes because of thinking that the odd is always going against the majority of bettors.

Research is there, that is too basic when you are trying to find which team or line has the value.
But the point of emphasis here is that when you bet on the opposite side because you think the public is pretty much pounding it, you need to have some basis.

[nimogsm]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

Betting against the crowd is more likely to work on an exchange. In sports betting, I'll still stick with the majority. Remember those shows like Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? They have a feature called "audience help," and in most cases, the audience was right in answering questions.The sites you added require a subscription or registration, but the essence of their work is clear - this is an interesting marker for decision making.

[Russlenat]

Betting against the crowd is more likely to work on an exchange. In sports betting, I'll still stick with the majority. Remember those shows like Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? They have a feature called "audience help," and in most cases, the audience was right in answering questions.The sites you added require a subscription or registration, but the essence of their work is clear - this is an interesting marker for decision making.

I think you are referring to something that is not related to the topic. If you check those websites given by the OP, it shows the percentage of bets on a certain game and where the majority of the bets are going. So it is like saying that since the majority of bettors lose, then it might be wise to bet against them. That is the logic behind the strategy.

[CryptoYar]

It does not make financial sense to go against the popular opinion based upon guesses made solely by guesses or on social media hype. If you're not actually watching real chasmy events, then you're just "throwing darts blindly". The key of this plan is to spread the processes of buying a ticket and winning money.To spread these two processes of: buying a ticket and winning money, is the secret of this plan. If total cash is driven by small number of total tickets, its shows that some big cash got in the market. Now throw in the line movement against us that is on majority public bet and you have a good idea where the pro groups are betting. Raw volume can be very useful to use looking at that platform but it shouldn't look at like a cheat code for going at regular bettors.

[bitLeap]

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

My bets are more flexible, for example, if the public picks a team that aligns with my predictions I'll follow it without compromise. Conversely if my betting choice conflicts with the public's, I won't rush to choose the opposite side. Instead I'll try to find information that confirms the public's choice. If there's a gap that warrants a contrary bet, I'll do so regardless even if it ends in a loss.

[Botnake]

Maybe it will work sometimes but not all the time, for example, in the last game of the NBA Finals.

As we can see here, https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting, the Knicks +5.5 had 62% of the bets, which means the other side should have won based on that strategy, but what happened? Not only did the Knicks cover the spread, they also won straight up.

So unless there is data showing a higher percentage of success when betting against the majority, that would be the only time it becomes easier to convince bettors.

[yahoo62278]

Maybe it will work sometimes but not all the time, for example, in the last game of the NBA Finals.

As we can see here, https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting, the Knicks +5.5 had 62% of the bets, which means the other side should have won based on that strategy, but what happened? Not only did the Knicks cover the spread, they also won straight up.

So unless there is data showing a higher percentage of success when betting against the majority, that would be the only time it becomes easier to convince bettors.

I bet the Spurs myself last night and obviously that didn't pay off. I really don't think betting against the public is a smart strat folks. Sportsbetting is not easy, if it were then some of the best would have better winning percentages that 60% win rate. Anything can happen and any team can win on any given day, we just have numbers to look at that help make a decision that we can only hope is correct.

[summonerrk]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

If we want to use that as part of our decision, then we should at least look for reliable websites that offer free betting splits or public betting percentages. Sites like Action Network, VSiN, or DraftKings betting splits can give us some signs where most public bets are going.

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

Links that may help:

Code:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting
https://vsin.com/betting-splits/
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/

The ability to place bets is not an attempt to swim with everyone in the same current and not an attempt to constantly go against the majority. Namely, the search for your path, where you will join the dark horse, then the favorites. And the main thing that will set you apart from everyone else is that you will constantly change your mind, because you will be based on your own internal data and arguments, and therefore I consider both tactics to be losing: Both betting on favorites and betting on dark horses.

[Agbe]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

From what I am seen in this world cup, betting on neutrality (dr@w) or the opposite because all the teams which I thought would win their opponents easily has not won their matches instead they drew with them. Like yesterday matches, I have seen both online and in my residence and compound, many gamblers were crying that Brazil cut their ticket. Now my best option to bet in this world cup is either draw or the strong team wins.

[danherbias07]

I don't use that strategy, so neither those lists of websites.

I always assume that the favorites are where the public is, and you said it, there's really no data on how to know where they are betting, unless the sports bookies will input something that would count all the bets. The changing odds 24 hours before the game is where I only look. But most of the time, the changes are not drastic. 0.05 in an hour or maybe a little more, but that is still not proof that something heavy is betting on that side.

I am too lazy to monitor them, so I just go through doing my homework and crossing my fingers that I did right to win the bet.

[rachael9385]

When the public bets on a particular option it's for a reason, even though it might be smart to bet against the crowd it might also be stupid as well. one few occasions betting against the crowd proves to be profitable but the question is how many bettors would think of it or be brave enough to even try it. well, i don't spend too much time thinking of this I just bet and hope for the best.

[Hatchy]

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

You might still have to use the public data to know what they have to say, if you are going to use such analysis for your bets..I don't really see it as a good strategy for anyone that's really ready make wins in gambling. The crowd sometimes might have flaws in their predictions and making your own analysis from such assumptions would not be good for you on a long term. You should try your best to do proper research for every bets, make good analysis and check the past data of each teams to ensure you are on track. We saw similar things that happened with the recent match between Arsenal and psg. So many people saw decided to follow the crowd, they knew arsenal had no chances of winning, but wanted to bet blindly on arsenal to win and all got disappointed..

[Exitoral]

First of all, when information is already out in the open, then there is a 95% chance that it won't work anymore. This strategy seems to be already in the open. With what I just said, it won't work anymore. Because if everyone is thinking the same thing, what do you think will happen? One side will win and it may now be the public. So I won't really buy into this strategy.
The public is not always wrong and you can't use one single strategy that will guarantee success in betting.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

As much as I know, there is no strategy that guarantees winning in both sports betting and playing gambling games, and this is because in all of this, we still need to be lucky to win, in sports betting, analysis and research might help to increase our chances of being lucky and winning, but what is most important here is that winning required being lucky and luck something we do not gave control over, on like strategy we have absolutely control over, infact, we can even form or create our strategy at times.

I myself believe no experienced bettor should blindly follow the public when it comes to choosing a team to bet on in a match, only inexperienced bettors are the ones who engage themselves in this type of betting because they probably don't know how to research and analyse yet.
But for any experienced bettor who still blindly go wit the public in betting, such a bettor definitely a very lazy person.

[un_rank]

If you are confident the other side wins through data or just your gut feeling then you can go with the upset. If you are unsure what to pick betting with the public is the safest option, the majority is more likely to be correct most of the time.

Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

If you go against the crowd you are still letting external factors to determine your picks.

- Jay -

[Frankolala]

Betting against the crowd is more likely to work on an exchange. In sports betting, I'll still stick with the majority. Remember those shows like Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? They have a feature called "audience help," and in most cases, the audience was right in answering questions.The sites you added require a subscription or registration, but the essence of their work is clear - this is an interesting marker for decision making.

I think you are referring to something that is not related to the topic. If you check those websites given by the OP, it shows the percentage of bets on a certain game and where the majority of the bets are going. So it is like saying that since the majority of bettors lose, then it might be wise to bet against them. That is the logic behind the strategy.

How will you know that majority of bettors will lose their bet when the game isn't over yet. You can be sure of winning your bet when it has already given you profit. I do my analysis and research before placing my bet and I don't need to know which direction the public is betting on. I gamble for fun and not necessarily for profit.

[Coyster]

I don't think that is a smart strategy, just going with the other side, because most bettors have picked their favorite. I cannot see how that favors you as a gambler if that's all the strategy is about. I think it is the bookies that are and should be more concerned about which team most of their users are backing, and the reason they do that is to manage risk and try to balance funds placed on either side. But as a gambler, i do not care what side you pick, i'll pick mine, even if it is the same team.

[swogerino]

The first website was somewhat helpful as they can make you have a general idea where people bets are going and I have bookmarked it for further reference when I will place sport bets. The other two I didn't understand them well maybe because my focus was completely on the first one as that was enough for my needs. There are other sites like these but I don't know how true the data in these websites are, I wonder how are they able to produce such data, do they get it from some source or I have no idea how they came up with these data. If the data is gotten from sport betting websites then it means nothing to me as most sport betting sites nowadays offer the option to see other people bets and have quite a nice idea about what people are doing.