Can we really fade the public without checking betting splits first?

[viljy]

There is one caveat here. It is worth distinguishing between what most bettors bet on and what they bet a lot of money on. So betting against the crowd is one thing, but betting against big money is another. Of course, you will not be able to find out this information from bookmakers by odds. However, for example, in the prediction market, let's say in the Polymarket, you can learn something about it. Maybe not 100% of the information about the bet, but in any case, there is much more information than the bookmaker.

[junder]

I agree with you that the public can be right sometimes but frankly speaking, i don't follow the public i bet based on what i feel is best for me after doing my own analysis. If truth be told, i gamble differently, i don't gamble when others do and i don't bet on every sport. And when it comes to football i don't play every league i focus more on Premier League, less on other Leagues.

Although we may feel or think that sometimes the public is right but in the end it is better to follow our own instincts in betting especially since I believe in luck so we can also win with the bets we make if we are lucky.

I myself gamble by following my own instincts, although sometimes when I gamble when I gather with friends and there are some of them who advise me not to do it but by hearing it I do it because it is one way of respecting each other.

[OsaiEmma]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

If we want to use that as part of our decision, then we should at least look for reliable websites that offer free betting splits or public betting percentages. Sites like Action Network, VSiN, or DraftKings betting splits can give us some signs where most public bets are going.

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

Links that may help:

Code:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/public-betting
https://vsin.com/betting-splits/
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/

What type of bet are you referring to here, is it sports betting, pure casino games or lottery? Most bet options are not just black and white, there are often so...many options. So I don't think there is even a scenario where you just have to bet on an opposite option from what the public or majority is betting on.

As you said earlier, don't just follow the "fade the public" strategy blindly. I'd say, don't just follow it alone, maybe incorporate it into your strategy. If you notice a higher percentage of bettors are going for that option, you skip. Look for options with fewer bettors betting on it, then see if your analysis aligns with it. If it doesn't, skip. Sometimes, your analysis might go well with the crowd's pick, that doesn't mean it is a bad pick either.

So to me, this strategy is not remotely realistic. Just make your strategy and do what you feel works. Using speculations and public opinion alone is not really a feasible strategy IMO.

[ZeroVinsonN]

The is just pushing your luck as a bettor, the reason why the crowd is betting on one team over the other is because they are more likely to win, of course this also means that the other team ( the supposed underdog) will be given a much higher odd to win which will be a good payout to anyone who bets on them and wins but the whole point of their odd being that big is because they are not in a good position to win, I would rather work with stats that just completely be picking against anyone else.

[Achalugo BTC]

The is just pushing your luck as a bettor, the reason why the crowd is betting on one team over the other is because they are more likely to win, of course this also means that the other team ( the supposed underdog) will be given a much higher odd to win which will be a good payout to anyone who bets on them and wins but the whole point of their odd being that big is because they are not in a good position to win, I would rather work with stats that just completely be picking against anyone else.

That's true, instead of working with vibes, it's better to bet with stats, though its not always guaranteed but at least it will be of help because doing what you know how to best, helps one to avoid problems and moderate the way they gamble. However, in gambling, the most essential thing that one needs to do its safety, engaging in safe gambling its best strategy to keep the fun intact and also, they can be able to manage responsible gambling.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Most of the time, the public is right, perhaps they did analysis too before making the bet, so if you want to fade the public, that means you may have seen a loophole that makes you believe that betting against the public will give you a win, when you just want to go against the public meanwhile you don't have any analysis that confirmed that the other team is likely to win the match, then you will be the one that losses their bet while the public wins their bet. Like I said before, I don't just bet against the public or bet on same opinion of the public unless I have done my analysis and then it aligned with what I see.

[Tungbulu]

If public betting have more potential to win, maybe we could follow that but we should research as the basic before decide. We can't bet blindly based on that, we need more data to find that is the right choice or not. But there is no problem if you still want to use the public betting because you responsible with your money and better knowing the risk more so you can handle that.

Right, everyone has the right to make their own choice, if they choose to bet blindly, its their own choice, but for the sake of avoiding blames and hurts, one needs to do some research before betting because anything can happen in gambling and will be held responsible for whatever outcome from gambling. So, risk what you can be able to handle your emotions if you lost your bet, although crowds might not be wrong at all times but for the sake of your mental health, its better to do the necessary thing.

[DrBeer]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.
....

In my personal opinion, this is simply an attempt based on the expectation that betting "against the majority" yields much higher profits if the bet wins. At the same time, it’s important to understand that if players who know what they’re doing consider a certain outcome to be the most likely, then the probability of another outcome-based on statistics and predictions-tends to be, if not zero, then very low. In such cases, it’s more a matter of "extremely rare luck" than a strategy that actually works.

[YOSHIE]

Can we really fade the public without checking betting splits first?

Technically and statistically from the data that I have seen, in general the public prefers to place bets on their favorite teams and on teams that have big scores, for this reason bookies also do not remain silent in adjusting the odds for public bets.

But in matches everything can change, so without guidelines on public betting data, we can also win, but as I said above, the comparison of public data also needs to be adjusted.

[shawonngp]

In one place I see people expressing their opinions in different directions. Where others bet, there is often a third person who is on the opposite side. This is more common in the case of sports betting. Many times they go against the analysis. Even after analyzing a team, despite it being strong, they do not go with the flow and bet on a weaker team at a higher ratio, hoping that if they win, they will win more money.

Many of us are connected to many gambling related platforms, so before a match starts, there is a lot of discussion about it, like which team will win or lose, and which team strong or weaker people give different opinions, then 80%-90% people's opinion is the same, because they pick their favorite team or strong team, we follow the opinion of the public, we often bet which is not always right for me, I myself sometimes bet depending on the public opinion, sometimes it is profitable or not. Losses happen, but we cannot guarantee any team's win. I try to gamble based on my own analysis, even if I lose, it is an experience for me. Gambling should not be done by relying on others' opinions.

[boyptc]

That's true, instead of working with vibes, it's better to bet with stats, though its not always guaranteed but at least it will be of help because doing what you know how to best, helps one to avoid problems and moderate the way they gamble.

And that's a way to become a responsible gambler. You're doing your own analysis and not only you throw money away freely to the casinos.

So, whether you follow the public with what they have analyzed or you do your own. That shows that you want to win and it increases your potential to win.

However, in gambling, the most essential thing that one needs to do its safety, engaging in safe gambling its best strategy to keep the fun intact and also, they can be able to manage responsible gambling.

Specific way of engaging safely is about betting with what you can afford to lose.

[Perfectbaby]

Can we really fade the public without checking betting splits first?

Technically and statistically from the data that I have seen, in general the public prefers to place bets on their favorite teams and on teams that have big scores, for this reason bookies also do not remain silent in adjusting the odds for public bets.

But in matches everything can change, so without guidelines on public betting data, we can also win, but as I said above, the comparison of public data also needs to be adjusted.

And you think they don't care about their winning rate?
When the public bet game on their favorite team is there possibilities for them to win the match later?
What if their favorite do not win the match would they keep supporting their favorite team?
To me, it is better to gamble based on what you should be earning from that match than entirely depending on their favorite and still ends up losing everything. Before you would see me supporting my favorite team you should know that I do not include my money in that bet, but whenever I stake with money then I became more strict to the people who would win the match for me to recover back my money without completing losing it entirely.

[Chinesebaby]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

There is no data more effective than checking the team's previous performance and the strength or weakness of the opponent which the team is intending to play with. Because whatever data been given on both these websites, it still don't consistently predict the perfect outcome of a Sport event. However, I think these is my first time of coming across this website you just shared above, and I will be giving it a try to pick some games of this current world cup to place a bet on, after noticing which match and country people are placing a bet on the most.

[Fortify]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

If we want to use that as part of our decision, then we should at least look for reliable websites that offer free betting splits or public betting percentages. Sites like Action Network, VSiN, or DraftKings betting splits can give us some signs where most public bets are going.

Still, it does not mean we should blindly bet the other side. Sometimes the public is right too. But at least if we check the numbers first, we are not just guessing or following what people say.

For those who use this strategy, do you trust bet percentage, money percentage, or line movement more when making your decision?

Yeah, but it doesn't really work like that does it. Sure, there will be some bets that you might have good reason to speculate on, but the bookmakers are making big profits year after year because they don't try to play games or trick people, they simple analyse historical patterns which is hugely profitable for them. Trying to "outsmart the public" might work once or twice, or even more than that if you are highly selective, but unless you're on a peer to peer betting market it's only a company on the other side of the bet. There's also a superiority complex in use by people who use terms like "fade the public" because it implies that they are some how better at choosing bets, but I've yet to see any long term successful sports bet player - who doesn't get booted off every platform making it unviable.

[alastantiger]

A lot of bettors say “fade the public” like it is already a sure strategy. If many people are betting on one side, they quickly look at the opposite side.

But honestly, how do we even know where the public is betting if we don’t check any real data?

To easily identify where the public are pointing towards when it comes to betting is by simply looking at the odds that the gambling sites are providing. The site will always give a higher odd for the less likely team to win but will give a small odd for the team that the public is likely going to gamble on as the possible winners of the game. If you are experienced you will understand that most times the popular games or odds wins you money hence you can decide to put a large large sum of money on the small odds and then multiply your earnings by 100% instead of looking for 500% when the chances of losing increase by 100% since the smaller team is likely going to lose.

[Oshio-man]

Is good to use the strategy you understood and it will lead you to embrace luck in your sport betting, there are a lot of gamblers that don't like involve themselves to some games they know that is not hard for them to win, if you can fade yourself, what of public you cannot fade because you know that nobody will know if you are winning or losing, if you are good in sport betting you can relax yourself without checking the result because you know that there will definitely be results.

[Hazink]

When the public bets on a particular option it's for a reason, even though it might be smart to bet against the crowd it might also be stupid as well. one few occasions betting against the crowd proves to be profitable but the question is how many bettors would think of it or be brave enough to even try it. well, i don't spend too much time thinking of this I just bet and hope for the best.

Everyone has a different pattern which they use in deciding what to bet on which there is nothing wrong with that, but depending on option like betting on where the majority places bet on or against without doing your own research is what I don't support. Sometimes paying little attention and analysing your own game can give you an advantage more than just depending on public option data.

[Achalugo BTC]

Specific way of engaging safely is about betting with what you can afford to lose.

Exactly, most people are having issues with this kind of habit, its clearly stated that in gambling, one should ensure to gamble with what they can afford to lose for their own mental sake and to also protect themselves from reckless spending because there is no gain in gambling if one thinks they can make it through gambling, which they are to gamble and enjoy the game for entertainment purposes and not for any other reasons.

[Findingnemo]

What difference does that make other than being manipulated by those media channels?

I don't really check for the public opinion and let's just say fuck em, and it is my money and I get to decide who will be the winner and if they doesn't then I can blame it on my own than anyone else.

No strategy in the world that can make anyone profitable so no need to waste time one useless analysis.

[Alphakilo]

What difference does that make other than being manipulated by those media channels?

I don't really check for the public opinion and let's just say fuck em, and it is my money and I get to decide who will be the winner and if they doesn't then I can blame it on my own than anyone else.

No strategy in the world that can make anyone profitable so no need to waste time one useless analysis.

I like your bravado, because that's just how I bet. I prefer to follow my guts than waste time on strategies that get me glued to the screen when there are other more important real world problems that need attention.

Although even if I get to try out any of these tools, I wouldn't trust them still because I believe the information would vary and the gambler or bettor would still be left with their own decision to make.

For the benefit of doubt, I would always trust line movement first before checking the disparity in money vs the bet discrepancy and lastly, is the bets, and that's because I decided to use the tools just to satisfy my curiosity, not because it becomes a norm for me anyways.