I've been following the Token Base rumors but it hasn't happened yet. They are focused on building a broader ecosystem, creating many Apps and if Token Base is really released then the criteria is for those who are active in the ecosystem. On the DIscord Base channel the members are also optimistic that BASE will be released, there has been a role system implemented for a long time.
Q4 2026 should be a clear answer, but let's stay tuned because almost all L2 already have their own Tokens and only Base still doesn't have one so far.
Yeah, there are news going around about their latest code which hinted a sybil resistant airdrop. I honestly don't know what's going to be the criteria for the Base TGE. Too many active wallet and the chain itself is quite mainstream.
If in Q4 2026 they decided to do a long awaited TGE, good for them.
Anyhow, I expect the criteria to be revolving around their products. People who repeatedly using their products and not just to farm, might be eligible for airdrop especially the one with good onchain reputation based on their tool or they simply reward active big players who consistently supply liquidity on their blockchain.