Anyone else getting those May/Jun 2020 vibes?

[bated]

Been staring at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index over time and I can't unsee it. Pull up the long chart and look at late 2019 into the 2020 crash, and mid-2022. Then look at the far right. We're sitting in the exact same hole.

https://postimg.cc/jCT0LNq6

Here's why it matters, with the actual numbers:

The 2020 bottom. The index ground through the teens late 2019, then COVID slammed it to a reading of 8 (hit on Mar 17 and again Mar 26, 2020). One of the most extreme fear prints ever recorded. Everyone called it the end. What actually happened? Bitcoin ripped ~123% in the next six weeks, then kept going into the blowoff top of early 2021. Green arrow straight into Extreme Greed.

And here's the kicker for the title: by May/Jun 2020 the recovery was already in full swing. BTC had nearly tripled off the $3,858 March low to retake $10,000 by May 6, the halving landed May 11, and over the next 12 months price ran from ~$8,700 to ~$55,800 — a 540% move. That quiet May/Jun stretch, right after max fear, was the launchpad nobody wanted to buy.

The 2022 bottom. Terra/Luna, 3AC, Celsius all imploding. Index bottomed at 6 in June 2022 — even lower than COVID. Peak misery, funeral threads everywhere. That capitulation marked the floor that fed the entire 2023 grind and the run into the 2024-2025 highs.

Now. Late 2025 into 2026 we're back in that same low-20s-and-below Extreme Fear zone, and it just touched 10 recently — lowest since 2022. Same shape on the chart. Same sentiment. Same "it's over" crowd.

Notice the pattern isn't the sharp one-day spike down — it's the lingering. Every major leg up on this chart started from a long, demoralizing stretch parked in the basement, not a quick scare. 8 in 2020, 6 in 2022, and we're grinding the same range right now.

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Check it yourself: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

[sergiorus]

Been staring at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index over time and I can't unsee it. Pull up the long chart and look at late 2019 into the 2020 crash, and mid-2022. Then look at the far right. We're sitting in the exact same hole.



Here's why it matters, with the actual numbers:

The 2020 bottom. The index ground through the teens late 2019, then COVID slammed it to a reading of 8 (hit on Mar 17 and again Mar 26, 2020). One of the most extreme fear prints ever recorded. Everyone called it the end. What actually happened? Bitcoin ripped ~123% in the next six weeks, then kept going into the blowoff top of early 2021. Green arrow straight into Extreme Greed.

And here's the kicker for the title: by May/Jun 2020 the recovery was already in full swing. BTC had nearly tripled off the $3,858 March low to retake $10,000 by May 6, the halving landed May 11, and over the next 12 months price ran from ~$8,700 to ~$55,800 — a 540% move. That quiet May/Jun stretch, right after max fear, was the launchpad nobody wanted to buy.

The 2022 bottom. Terra/Luna, 3AC, Celsius all imploding. Index bottomed at 6 in June 2022 — even lower than COVID. Peak misery, funeral threads everywhere. That capitulation marked the floor that fed the entire 2023 grind and the run into the 2024-2025 highs.

Now. Late 2025 into 2026 we're back in that same low-20s-and-below Extreme Fear zone, and it just touched 10 recently — lowest since 2022. Same shape on the chart. Same sentiment. Same "it's over" crowd.

Notice the pattern isn't the sharp one-day spike down — it's the lingering. Every major leg up on this chart started from a long, demoralizing stretch parked in the basement, not a quick scare. 8 in 2020, 6 in 2022, and we're grinding the same range right now.

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Check it yourself: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

idk in 2020 coins started slowly climbing up soon after the sell-off and by May-June many did a few hundred % gains off the bottom (i.e. LINK).
today many coins once again made new all time lows so we generally just keep bleeding still.

fwiw, i think we're still at or around the bottom but the situation is clearly different and we may stay in this fearful near death state for a while.

[bated]

idk in 2020 coins started slowly climbing up soon after the sell-off and by May-June many did a few hundred % gains off the bottom (i.e. LINK).
today many coins once again made new all time lows so we generally just keep bleeding still.

fwiw, i think we're still at or around the bottom but the situation is clearly different and we may stay in this fearful near death state for a while.

Yeah, fair points, and I think you nailed the key difference — 2020 was a sharp V off the bottom (LINK doing multi-hundred % is a perfect example), whereas this cycle we're just slow-bleeding into fresh ATLs with no real relief. That's a different character entirely.

But the big thing for me is macro, specifically the geopolitics finally cooling off. US/Iran just signed a framework to end the war and Israel/Lebanon have a ceasefire in place — fragile, sure, but the direction is de-escalation for the first time in a while. What stands out even more is that the US is now actively putting pressure on Israel — Trump publicly reining in Netanyahu over the Lebanon strikes, pushing him to stand down. That's a real shift in posture, and it signals the whole "perpetual escalation" trade is changing. And oil's already responding: Brent's dropped something like $17 a barrel over a handful of sessions down into the mid-$70s. Cheap energy + risk premium bleeding out of markets is historically the kind of setup that flips fear into boom times. Liquidity tends to follow once the "world's on fire" trade unwinds.

So I'm with you that we're at or near the bottom, I just think the catalyst this time is external/macro rather than an internal crypto V-bounce.

[cryptoaddictchie]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Probably this kinda low are we had seen in the past cycle too. If anyone got funds then its always good to load up or do some dca cause at this point we could be having a reversal. Its been so long that we are on the red pattern and anytime or moment we could really experience what have been waiting for.

I had a lots of debts due to my personal problems that need to be settle but I wish I could gain some funds to accumulate some good coins before it explode and consider on bull phase.

[_act_]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

You are very correct about this, it is the same bull bear pattern. It is true that nobody knows the price that will be the bottom right now, but I do not think bitcoin will fall significantly further down, but it can end up just falling slightly lower. Even if bitcoin fall further, it is the best time to accumulate bitcoin gradually. The same fear came in 2026, the same greedy will follow in the coming years and bull run again. I just hope I have more time to buy bitcoin because I only have little for now.

[Faisal2202]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

I was not around in 2020, but I understand what you mean here. If we observe the fear and greed index alone, we will realize where we are, and you have done great by comparing it with the previous ones to give a better idea, and it makes more sense and urges us to buy more.

Also, it emphasizes how vulnerable we are to losing opportunities, especially when they are right in front of us. Instead of using them, we wait and wait for bigger dumps so we could make a little more profit and lose the opportunity to make what was for sure.

[Alphakilo]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

You are very correct about this, it is the same bull bear pattern. It is true that nobody knows the price that will be the bottom right now, but I do not think bitcoin will fall significantly further down, but it can end up just falling slightly lower. Even if bitcoin fall further, it is the best time to accumulate bitcoin gradually. The same fear came in 2026, the same greedy will follow in the coming years and bull run again. I just hope I have more time to buy bitcoin because I only have little for now.

To accumulate Bitcoin is very hard for many individuals I must say, mostly when there's so much fear and uncertainty in the market. Also as ETF outflows has slowed down it gets scarier, but it is important to note that the market won't change despite the present fear or candles that show up.
Bitcoin still remains dominant and with prospects of rising to an all time high because it is a global hard capped asset that everyone would like to have a piece of, even the government.
At this point is where patience pays off most, instead of reacting emotionally to how the market behaves.

[AVE5]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Probably this kinda low are we had seen in the past cycle too. If anyone got funds then its always good to load up or do some dca cause at this point we could be having a reversal. Its been so long that we are on the red pattern and anytime or moment we could really experience what have been waiting for.

I had a lots of debts due to my personal problems that need to be settle but I wish I could gain some funds to accumulate some good coins before it explode and consider on bull phase.

I don't even know the architect of this clamoring of price fall this week when the market hasn't breaking the bottom of the approximately $59,000 and $60,000 we've experienced so far this year
As at last week or within the weekend and the beginning of this week the market was only at a top recovery of $65,000 and just of recent price declined to $62,000 and we're already beginning to create Fud like we've been jumped into a dump of new bottom.
Well, investors with discretionary incomes will always take opportunity to accumulate on Dca in this call while the Fud cuts the weak off. We also don't know what the market is cooking afterwards, maybe create another positive or worsen negative impacts

[Dr.Osh]

Unfortunately, that method is no longer feasible. In 2020, not everyone was familiar with Bitcoin and crypto. They only knew about a few sectors of the economic industry. At that time, only those still on the verge of doubt were in the crypto environment. It's natural that the FOMO that emerged from the crypto apocalypse in 2020 caused everyone to panic and sell their assets. This opportunity was stolen by those who control the world with their finances to easily take over crypto. Currently, there is no longer any news of a "crypto apocalypse" that works.

[Hamza2424]

Pattern recognition is a solid point and I really loved the lingering vs spiking distinction which is the most important technical observation in your entire post.

Although I don't feel sad for people who leave the market with a single day fear spike and that panic makes them sell because they are the noise, the weak hands and they are supposed to be liquidated. Market makers know that, that's why they are so vulnerable that they could easily be emptied.

The comparison is good but one thing worth noting is the institutional presence now vs then, as in 2020 retail dominated the sentiment completely but today new players have entered and through ETFs the liquidity has increased dramatically, so BTC and crypto have formed a strong base and can't be shaken that easily.

[JeffBrad12]

I personally consider F&G indicator to be a trap sometime, same with RSI. These two indicator, even when at low doesn't really indicate bottom, the price can go even lower and the indicator could stay at that position for quite a while.
I got misled by RSI in the previous cycle, I will buy when I think the risk-reward ratio is okay, but even right now it's already great time to buy if you don't mean some drawdown.

[bated]

Unfortunately, that method is no longer feasible. In 2020, not everyone was familiar with Bitcoin and crypto. They only knew about a few sectors of the economic industry. At that time, only those still on the verge of doubt were in the crypto environment. It's natural that the FOMO that emerged from the crypto apocalypse in 2020 caused everyone to panic and sell their assets. This opportunity was stolen by those who control the world with their finances to easily take over crypto. Currently, there is no longer any news of a "crypto apocalypse" that works.

Really? What about quantum and Trump's post on X?

[bated]

A better version of the image https://i.postimg.cc/NKwpt9sG/fear-greed-history-repeats.png

Assuming the peace holds and oil supply/price remains stable, I am calling a massive rebound on $BTC.

[justdimin]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Not even remotely the same. We have seen bottom not at 2020 but in 2018 and in 2022. The 2020 was a recovery period, the halving year, something that went higher and higher eventually. We are crashing right now, know the difference. Right now is not the 2020 period, right now is the bear period of 2018 and 2022. What you are going to see 2020 was 2024, and also will be 2028 for example. Those are similar, this one is not.

I do not honestly understand that why people look at things from a very short time frame and think that they are seeing the bigger picture. There isn't any specific situation where we can handle this any differently, we should not be considering this to be all that crazy to handle, we could make a lot better returns if we are careful.

[sergiorus]

I'm not calling the exact bottom — nobody can. But Extreme Fear this deep and this persistent has been the setup, not the ending, all three times this chart has shown it. The loudest doomers right now are the same energy as the people posting capitulation threads in March 2020 and summer 2022.

Third time watching this movie. Anyone else loading up here, or am I just pattern-matching myself into a bag?

Not even remotely the same. We have seen bottom not at 2020 but in 2018 and in 2022. The 2020 was a recovery period, the halving year, something that went higher and higher eventually. We are crashing right now, know the difference. Right now is not the 2020 period, right now is the bear period of 2018 and 2022. What you are going to see 2020 was 2024, and also will be 2028 for example. Those are similar, this one is not.

I do not honestly understand that why people look at things from a very short time frame and think that they are seeing the bigger picture. There isn't any specific situation where we can handle this any differently, we should not be considering this to be all that crazy to handle, we could make a lot better returns if we are careful.

March 2020 was 2018 bottom's sweep so basically second bottom.
May-June was the active market recovery but I agree now is nothing like that, not even remotely similar.

[slaman29]

Other than the AI phrases I didn't like to see hehe (here's why it matters, and here's the kicker), not really, not getting any vibes at all. We're talking about Covid and Luna, 2 big events that nobody saw coming well ok some people saw Luna but to expect 2 more global events like that now, what's the closest I can think of? Ebola? And then Iran war? That's not going to blow out, we all know about it.

Not saying nothing similar will happen.

Just not getting any vibes.

[WilliamCarter]

when the market's drowning in pure fear, thats usually when u gotta keep ur head on straight. looking back at past dumps, its always wall-to-wall noise and doom-mongering right before things quietly turn around for a proper entry. instead of letting emotions run the show, u're way better off sorting ur capital and risk management properly and just waiting out the cycle.

[tbct_mt2]

Been staring at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index over time and I can't unsee it. Pull up the long chart and look at late 2019 into the 2020 crash, and mid-2022. Then look at the far right. We're sitting in the exact same hole.

Check it yourself: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

There are different sites with different algorithms for their crypto fear and greed indices, so it's possible that you will see a little bit differences of such indices on other sites.

It's difference but not too important because the importance is all those indices, no mater what their differences in figure values, all show either the market fear or greed status at any moment. It can help long term investors to have an overview about psychological phase of a market and can plan their bitcoin accumulation, even increase their purchase intensity and value, as well as think of taking profit plan if they want.

Use such index chart together with this one
The Psychological Pitfalls of a Market Cycle.

[Peanutswar]

[...]
Now. Late 2025 into 2026 we're back in that same low-20s-and-below Extreme Fear zone, and it just touched 10 recently — lowest since 2022. Same shape on the chart. Same sentiment. Same "it's over" crowd.

Notice the pattern isn't the sharp one-day spike down — it's the lingering. Every major leg up on this chart started from a long, demoralizing stretch parked in the basement, not a quick scare. 8 in 2020, 6 in 2022, and we're grinding the same range right now.
[...]

Other people seeing it a fear and not to buy more cryptocurrency but for me I see this as a part of opportunity for the market thats the time for other people to avoid crypto because possible other bottom but for me as a DCA strategy right now since the start of the year, thats the time I will accumulate for crypto its an good part to buy more bitcoin and other coins its been few more days before the previous ATH of the bitcoin last october and we are quite close enough so for me this fear is just an opportunity for the next bull run.

[Rruchi man]

Other than the AI phrases I didn't like to see hehe (here's why it matters, and here's the kicker), not really, not getting any vibes at all. We're talking about Covid and Luna, 2 big events that nobody saw coming well ok some people saw Luna but to expect 2 more global events like that now, what's the closest I can think of? Ebola? And then Iran war? That's not going to blow out, we all know about it.

Not saying nothing similar will happen.

Just not getting any vibes.

Vibes and trading/investment should not be in the same conversation. Vibes are emotions, and emotions in trading or investing can be thoroughly misleading.

It is very possible that the market creates a similar pattern to what you've seen before and still goes on to act in a manner different from what you saw or have seen as well.

This is why before you make any decision in trading, you must carefully analyze and make decisions based on current situations, just as already mentioned by

... one thing worth noting is the institutional presence now vs then, as in 2020 retail dominated the sentiment completely but today new players have entered