Predicting Crypto future is hard

[suhadi88]

Even if you ask anyone who understands investing, especially crypto, the answer will always be BTC. It's okay to be a little concerned about the current price movement, but that's the way it is. In my opinion, BTC remains a more promising long-term investment than buying other coins with uncertain historical track records, especially the new coins

[Zaguru12]

I don't agree with your statement. In fact, Political Economy has a big effect on Bitcoin and Crypto. It's already provenjust look at the Iran vs America situation, or look at the market when the FED announces interest rates. Political Economy these days actually adds a really strong flavor to crypto, especially Bitcoin.

I think we would definitely place this into the bracket of factors that affect the demand and supply of bitcoin. When people see others say economic reforms or political reforms actually affects bitcoin price some people actually disagree and I usually say this disagreement is usually because this people think that such claims are actually changing or influencing the change of bitcoin protocols, which is definitely not true. Bitcoin protocol remains unique and subjective to only changes agreed upon by nodes or developers consensus.

But for price of bitcoin economic reforms or political policies actually affects it, either increasing the demand by the investors or actually reducing it. For example a relaxed economy policy on cryptocurrency actually means more adoption and anything against that creates fear and reduces the demand. For example when ETF was approved we experience a hype in demand which even caused the breaking of the ATH then before the regular post halving bull run. Subsequently the political policy of banning bitcoin mining in China then contributed in a bitcoin market crash.

So bitcoin price can definitely be an influencing factor for bitcoin demand and supply

[Karl_3000]

I don't agree with your statement. In fact, Political Economy has a big effect on Bitcoin and Crypto. It's already provenjust look at the Iran vs America situation, or look at the market when the FED announces interest rates. Political Economy these days actually adds a really strong flavor to crypto, especially Bitcoin.

I think we would definitely place this into the bracket of factors that affect the demand and supply of bitcoin. When people see others say economic reforms or political reforms actually affects bitcoin price some people actually disagree and I usually say this disagreement is usually because this people think that such claims are actually changing or influencing the change of bitcoin protocols, which is definitely not true. Bitcoin protocol remains unique and subjective to only changes agreed upon by nodes or developers consensus.

But for price of bitcoin economic reforms or political policies actually affects it, either increasing the demand by the investors or actually reducing it. For example a relaxed economy policy on cryptocurrency actually means more adoption and anything against that creates fear and reduces the demand. For example when ETF was approved we experience a hype in demand which even caused the breaking of the ATH then before the regular post halving bull run. Subsequently the political policy of banning bitcoin mining in China then contributed in a bitcoin market crash.

He used war in Iran as an example which is not affecting bitcoin price, definitely it is not true. If the war is affecting bitcoin price, why has bitcoin not fall significantly. Or if he meant the opposite, why bitcoin has not increased above $80000 but war can later let the price of bitcoin increase. Only what I noticed that affect the price of bitcoin very well was the US ETF. That Trump time too but it was already a very bull market at the time and everything has been wiped out.

[Zaguru12]

He used war in Iran as an example which is not affecting bitcoin price, definitely it is not true. If the war is affecting bitcoin price, why has bitcoin not fall significantly. Or if he meant the opposite, why bitcoin has not increased above $80000. Only what I noticed that affect the price of bitcoin very well was the US ETF. That Trump time too but it was already a very bull market at the time and everything has been wiped out.

Yeah I didn’t debunk that but you’re definitely right, I have also been on of those who think that not every event affects bitcoin, I could tell you that many people were very bearish about bitcoin when the Iran vs US war started but instead the bitcoin market actually did an opposite of what was actually expected by lots of people which was that during the war bitcoin was bullish, in fact the most bullish period this year and when the ceasefire was actually agreed then bitcoin was already bearish and this did not change the sentiment of the market, the reason is actually there but it’s just to say that not all negative news around the world affects the bitcoin price and also not all the positive news do too. In fact none affects bitcoin direct rather it’s the effect on the sentiment of the investors that it affects which goes to the price.

[Rustam Meraj]

He used war in Iran as an example which is not affecting bitcoin price, definitely it is not true. If the war is affecting bitcoin price, why has bitcoin not fall significantly. Or if he meant the opposite, why bitcoin has not increased above $80000. Only what I noticed that affect the price of bitcoin very well was the US ETF. That Trump time too but it was already a very bull market at the time and everything has been wiped out.

Yeah I didn’t debunk that but you’re definitely right, I have also been on of those who think that not every event affects bitcoin, I could tell you that many people were very bearish about bitcoin when the Iran vs US war started but instead the bitcoin market actually did an opposite of what was actually expected by lots of people which was that during the war bitcoin was bullish, in fact the most bullish period this year and when the ceasefire was actually agreed then bitcoin was already bearish and this did not change the sentiment of the market, the reason is actually there but it’s just to say that not all negative news around the world affects the bitcoin price and also not all the positive news do too. In fact none affects bitcoin direct rather it’s the effect on the sentiment of the investors that it affects which goes to the price.

I am eally not sure I think local price moves to specific large scale events are just missing point that underlying network only reacts to changes in overall feeling of buyers and the overall amount of capital. Market will rise during regional crisis and will stand still during cease fire, and this says it all. Public stories are after the fact explanations of what is happening in market. In the end, it is only external events that affect investor risk comfort in real way on global scale.

[Dex_master25]

Even if you ask anyone who understands investing, especially crypto, the answer will always be BTC. It's okay to be a little concerned about the current price movement, but that's the way it is. In my opinion, BTC remains a more promising long-term investment than buying other coins with uncertain historical track records, especially the new coins

I think so too, infact I see no sense to invest or hold other cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin in a cold wallet because I believe the effect of volatility would make its future price much more valuable than now and it has a better assurance of not dipping into a crash level like new altcoins including the old ones can.
For quick profit, altcoins is better, but for long term wealth build up, Bitcoin is my number one choice irrespective of the current market situation or dip we experience.

[henmark]

Digital assets like btc, etherium and others either decentralized or centralized is more like virtual games to me, the more you look the less you see. Honestly the future of all the Cryptocurrency can never be determined by any economic or political circumstances, one predictions dies another person hope, the market is always unrealistic and uncertainty. Inflation might likely cause dips to occur, excessive capitalism or price control in digital markets products or even monopoly of governments decisions.

The future of btc is not actualize by any studies but one might counts its past testimonies and several events of bullish and bearish notwithstanding is difficult to actual tell when the community breaks into major lost because no real fact about its future, I hope it doesn't flies out tomorrow unexpectedly. This is not fact findings but curiosity of Crypto future.

What do you mean by saying that the more you look the less you see? Because that doesn't make sense for both virtual games and cryptocurrencies, because you need focus and knowledge for both to actually be successful. When you are playing a game with zero knowledge and understanding, you can't succeed and you will fail every single time.

However, if you play it with knowledge and a proper plan because you have knowledge about it even if you haven't played it yourself, your chances of succeeding will be higher. The same goes for cryptocurrencies and investments in them; if you invest blindly without any knowledge, you will fail for sure, but if you do it with knowledge and understanding, you will have higher chances of succeeding.

So, the more you look, the more you see, this is actually what one should say, because the level of knowledge and experience one has in this market will decide how far they are going to go in their journey. If you feel overconfident and believe you don't need knowledge before you get started, your journey will probably be very short. With that being said, there is no doubt that predicting the market perfectly every time is not possible, but with knowledge, most of your predictions could be correct.

[jossiel]

The future of bitcoin is certain based on the adoption and the history that it has shown. If we're talking about a decade ago, we can say that it's very uncertain.

But it has gone far from that situation and we'd known that there's a great future that awaits for it.

And as the inflation goes on, IMO, it adds up to the value of Bitcoin because people look for a hedge against it and one of its great choice is with bitcoin.

[Rashlyowl]

Digital assets like btc, etherium and others either decentralized or centralized is more like virtual games to me, the more you look the less you see. Honestly the future of all the Cryptocurrency can never be determined by any economic or political circumstances, one predictions dies another person hope, the market is always unrealistic and uncertainty. Inflation might likely cause dips to occur, excessive capitalism or price control in digital markets products or even monopoly of governments decisions.

The market is indeed always unclear & uncertain, you're right in that part. However, we can make predictions to some extent based on current economic & political conditions. I clearly remember that events such as bank failures which undermined the sense of security for their customers drove up the price of BTC.

Lately, discussions regarding quantum computing have also significantly impacted BTC, this is bad news for the community, as many people are convinced that BTC will eventually meet its end, after all, isn't that part of the predictions?

[Charles-Tim]

That's one of the most interesting aspects of bitcoin and the crypto market. Despite the uncertainty about what the future holds, the long term price trend has continued to tell a different story.

You are very right, but he mentioned crypto generally. Crypto has been so disappointing, because there are millions of them that are existing now, but more than 99% among them are not getting to all-time high. I can mention the names of the coins that got to all-time high in the last bull run, they are not up to 1% of all cryptocurrencies while many were created, listed by exchanges and later got unlisted. But it is different for bitcoin because it remains as a store or value and getting to all-time high.

[DiMarxist]

Can anyone actually predict Bitcoin accurately, that is one question that is very hard to come by if you ask me. On this forum I have come across post talking about so called predictions coming from Bitcoin experts, but anytime I see things like like I don't get moved or bother myself about such things because, I see it as speculation and not predictions. This is because Bitcoin as a volatile asset is in such a way that one can't successfully predict the exact outcome of its movement.  We should just trust Bitcoin based it's historical attendance and continue to hold because Bitcoin as always bounced back no matter the low that it gets to.

[Z_MBFM]

Digital assets like btc, etherium and others either decentralized or centralized is more like virtual games to me, the more you look the less you see. Honestly the future of all the Cryptocurrency can never be determined by any economic or political circumstances, one predictions dies another person hope, the market is always unrealistic and uncertainty. Inflation might likely cause dips to occur, excessive capitalism or price control in digital markets products or even monopoly of governments decisions.

The future of btc is not actualize by any studies but one might counts its past testimonies and several events of bullish and bearish notwithstanding is difficult to actual tell when the community breaks into major lost because no real fact about its future, I hope it doesn't flies out tomorrow unexpectedly. This is not fact findings but curiosity of Crypto future.

We have no power to predict the future, be it crypto or anything else. We can only say that Bitcoin will do very well in the future and that is true, but no one can guarantee exactly when Bitcoin will be worth what. And it is even more difficult to predict the future of any coin other than Bitcoin. Because we cannot say that Bitcoin's price can always exceed its previous ATH and create a new ATH, but it will be at a lower price. What we can do is think about a future for Bitcoin and gradually hold some Bitcoin according to our ability. It is not possible for us to think or make anything more than that.

[Franklyn-wood]

Digital assets like btc, etherium and others either decentralized or centralized is more like virtual games to me, the more you look the less you see. Honestly the future of all the Cryptocurrency can never be determined by any economic or political circumstances, one predictions dies another person hope, the market is always unrealistic and uncertainty. Inflation might likely cause dips to occur, excessive capitalism or price control in digital markets products or even monopoly of governments decisions.

The market is indeed always unclear & uncertain, you're right in that part. However, we can make predictions to some extent based on current economic & political conditions. I clearly remember that events such as bank failures which undermined the sense of security for their customers drove up the price of BTC.

Lately, discussions regarding quantum computing have also significantly impacted BTC, this is bad news for the community, as many people are convinced that BTC will eventually meet its end, after all, isn't that part of the predictions?

Quantum computing is like a threat to Bitcoin through breaking the elliptic curve in the digital algorithm that is used to secure the security of the wallet address and transaction. This has become a major threat to all Bitcoin holders and creating fear in the heart of most investors. I believe there is going to be an upgrade in the security to protect the interest of the Bitcoin world for continuity.
Looking at it clearly Bitcoin is more valuable than the other crypto currencies out there because of it ability to store value and it level of security.

[Alphakilo]

Digital assets like btc, etherium and others either decentralized or centralized is more like virtual games to me, the more you look the less you see. Honestly the future of all the Cryptocurrency can never be determined by any economic or political circumstances, one predictions dies another person hope, the market is always unrealistic and uncertainty. Inflation might likely cause dips to occur, excessive capitalism or price control in digital markets products or even monopoly of governments decisions.

The future of btc is not actualize by any studies but one might counts its past testimonies and several events of bullish and bearish notwithstanding is difficult to actual tell when the community breaks into major lost because no real fact about its future, I hope it doesn't flies out tomorrow unexpectedly. This is not fact findings but curiosity of Crypto future.

We have no power to predict the future, be it crypto or anything else. We can only say that Bitcoin will do very well in the future and that is true, but no one can guarantee exactly when Bitcoin will be worth what. And it is even more difficult to predict the future of any coin other than Bitcoin. Because we cannot say that Bitcoin's price can always exceed its previous ATH and create a new ATH, but it will be at a lower price. What we can do is think about a future for Bitcoin and gradually hold some Bitcoin according to our ability. It is not possible for us to think or make anything more than that.

I liked your last statement about the hope we have for Bitcoin and while despite the difficulties in predicting its future, we still hold onto it
Irrespective of the absolute indifference to human chaos we face with its price volatility every now and then.
Bitcoin set the pace for other cryptocurrencies and even though it's not as old as gold or fiat currency, it's still growing which therefore makes it the more suseptible and hyper-reactive to the current shocks we witness from time to time. Hence why the difficulty in predicting its future just like other crypto currencies but we trust the math and codes and that's why we still invest in it.

[uchegod-21]

Digital assets like btc, etherium and others either decentralized or centralized is more like virtual games to me, the more you look the less you see. Honestly the future of all the Cryptocurrency can never be determined by any economic or political circumstances, one predictions dies another person hope, the market is always unrealistic and uncertainty. Inflation might likely cause dips to occur, excessive capitalism or price control in digital markets products or even monopoly of governments decisions.

The future of btc is not actualize by any studies but one might counts its past testimonies and several events of bullish and bearish notwithstanding is difficult to actual tell when the community breaks into major lost because no real fact about its future, I hope it doesn't flies out tomorrow unexpectedly. This is not fact findings but curiosity of Crypto future.

If it is difficult for you to predict, then you should make your journey with Bitcoin easier for yourself. It becomes more difficult when you focus on short-term price movements. As a beginner who is still trying to understand crypto and how the market works, I advise that you focus on Bitcoin, which has a better reputation than the others.

Your first approach as a beginner should be DCAing into Bitcoin for the long term or making a lump-sum investment in Bitcoin for the long term as well.

Predicting the future of crypto is not easy for everyone, but you can at least spot a shitcoin when you see one because they are usually overhyped. You should ignore all of those and focus on the one that has the most advantages.

[PX-Z]

That's one of the most interesting aspects of bitcoin and the crypto market. Despite the uncertainty about what the future holds, the long term price trend has continued to tell a different story.

You are very right, but he mentioned crypto generally. Crypto has been so disappointing, because there are millions of them that are existing now, but more than 99% among them are not getting to all-time high. I can mention the names of the coins that got to all-time high in the last bull run, they are not up to 1% of all cryptocurrencies while many were created, listed by exchanges and later got unlisted. But it is different for bitcoin because it remains as a store or value and getting to all-time high.

That's definitely disappointing, and unfortunately it's something we can't really control. Developers and project teams can easily launch new crypto or tokens in the hope that they'll gain traction and attract investors.

The reality is that many of these new tokens are created primarily to benefit the team behind the project rather than the community or investors. While there are legitimate projects, a large number offer little real value and rely more on hype than on actual utility.

[Powerjumboo]

The future of btc is not actualize by any studies but one might counts its past testimonies and several events of bullish and bearish notwithstanding is difficult to actual tell when the community breaks into major lost because no real fact about its future, I hope it doesn't flies out tomorrow unexpectedly. This is not fact findings but curiosity of Crypto future.

You can just go back to the beginning, if it is that easy then no one could have sold their stash. Some early investors who bought it at $1.00 sold at $3.00 and thought that they have hit a jackpot.

However, they didn't know that in the next 10 years or so it will be $126k. So that is the beauty of Bitcoin or crypto, it's the unknown, others hit a big jackpot, while others sold early because they don't have the patience.

So history tells us something that we shouldn't ignore.

When Bitcoin was priced at $1, no one imagined that it would become so popular and in demand. That is why those who bought it for $1, sold it for $3 and felt like they had hit the jackpot. No one ever imagined that Bitcoin would be so popular. If they could have imagined it, people would never have missed that opportunity and no one would have bought a pizza with ten thousand Bitcoins.

However, we have seen the price of Bitcoin reach an all-time high of $126,000, from where the price of Bitcoin is now $60,000. But now is a great opportunity to buy and we are missing this opportunity even though we know it. So we should not miss this opportunity at all, because it is better to buy now than to regret it after the price increases.

[AmoreJaz]

That's one of the most interesting aspects of bitcoin and the crypto market. Despite the uncertainty about what the future holds, the long term price trend has continued to tell a different story.

You are very right, but he mentioned crypto generally. Crypto has been so disappointing, because there are millions of them that are existing now, but more than 99% among them are not getting to all-time high. I can mention the names of the coins that got to all-time high in the last bull run, they are not up to 1% of all cryptocurrencies while many were created, listed by exchanges and later got unlisted. But it is different for bitcoin because it remains as a store or value and getting to all-time high.

This is why it is better to invest in top alts because the lifespan of most of them are short. They can be abandoned overnight without prior notice. Look for alts with solid foundation and good use case. Check as well their trading liquidity, you will have idea on how far they are in the trading market. It is better to invest in high quality alts rather than those trash coins. You will understand it better once you start losing money from those substandard projects. Because there's no going back for most of them or no recovery because it will continue to go down up until there's no more liquidity in the trading exchanges.

Look at one of the predictions from Peter Schiff last year, an American stockbroker, financial commentator, and radio personality.


And up until now, he's doing some speculations and reiterated his prediction - I believe he already made a lot of money from btc

Peter Schiff Says Wall Street's Bitcoin Bulls ‘Won't Put Money Where Their Mouth Is,’ Cites Strategy's Widening Discount

[Natalim]

And that what makes it bitcoin more exciting to invest because its future remains uncertain and unpredictable. And even if you managed to predict the future events and incidents that could affect bitcoin and the crypto market (which I think no one can), still you can't guarantee that bitcoin price will move like this or like that.

Enough reason why bitcoin is highly volatile, and so with the crypto market. But one thing is certain, the whole bitcoin adventure will bring a roller coaster of emotions for all its investors.

[Sonia_123]

The future of btc is not actualize by any studies but one might counts its past testimonies and several events of bullish and bearish notwithstanding is difficult to actual tell when the community breaks into major lost because no real fact about its future, I hope it doesn't flies out tomorrow unexpectedly. This is not fact findings but curiosity of Crypto future.

You can just go back to the beginning, if it is that easy then no one could have sold their stash. Some early investors who bought it at $1.00 sold at $3.00 and thought that they have hit a jackpot.

However, they didn't know that in the next 10 years or so it will be $126k. So that is the beauty of Bitcoin or crypto, it's the unknown, others hit a big jackpot, while others sold early because they don't have the patience.

So history tells us something that we shouldn't ignore.

Studying the market and predicting what the outcome will be or is cannot be done by anyone successful, instead all we can do is to rely on the past events of bitcoin with the hope of it rising again, all we have to do is to forget how the market price his or will be and continuously focus on investing in bitcoin and holding for a long term since that is only where you will be convinced about your expectations .