The Final Countdown for CLARITY: Senate Has Four Weeks to Act

[sergiorus]

According to "Crypto in America" [1], lawmakers have roughly four weeks to advance the Clarity Act before the August recess, widely seen as its last realistic chance to pass this year.

Updated Senate text is expected this week, but disputes over developer protections, ethics rules and securing 60 votes remain unresolved. Senator Cynthia Lummis said the bill would give Americans greater confidence and security to participate in the digital economy.


Polymarket currently assesses the chance of Clarity Act approval in 2026 at 24%. [2]


Ultimate capitulation event incoming?



[1] https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/the-final-countdown-for-clarity

[2] https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026

[retaur]

24% sounds a bit too optimistic. I imagine if that showed up on a regular (non crypto focused exchange) you'd see that fall to about 4-5% if that.

A bill that allows a way for some deceralised privacy features is good but perhaps it needs more limits than what it sounds is being suggested.

[Die_empty]

With the death of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and the ill health of Senator Mitch McConnell, the sponsors of the bill might have to work hard to get the required number to pass the bill. Hoping that the provision that protects non-custodial software developers from being prosecuted as unlicensed money transmitters is still in place.

The trade is that Polymarket will end by the 31st  of December 2026, and the chance of approval is now 40%. But the Senate will go on recess in August and then resume in September. The midterm election is in November, so time is of the essence now.

[sergiorus]

24% sounds a bit too optimistic. I imagine if that showed up on a regular (non crypto focused exchange) you'd see that fall to about 4-5% if that.

A bill that allows a way for some deceralised privacy features is good but perhaps it needs more limits than what it sounds is being suggested.

I wouldn't call Polymarket a "crypto-focused" platform. At least not anymore.

But I agree, the real chance is probably very slim but at the same time I'm frustrated why do the smart money let people buy $1 for $0.24 then? Maybe it's more nuanced than we think.

[dezoel]

I do not really think this as something that I would wait or hope for it to get it as quickly as possible. I think it is clear that we are going to see this as being something that is very small and not a big deal at all. For that purposes, I think it is clear that we are not going to end up with a large situation at all.

I think we should realize this is something as small as it gets for me and for that reason I am not waiting for it. ıt can happen tomorrow, it can happen in six months, for me it is the same thing.

[sergiorus]

I do not really think this as something that I would wait or hope for it to get it as quickly as possible. I think it is clear that we are going to see this as being something that is very small and not a big deal at all. For that purposes, I think it is clear that we are not going to end up with a large situation at all.

I think we should realize this is something as small as it gets for me and for that reason I am not waiting for it. ıt can happen tomorrow, it can happen in six months, for me it is the same thing.

You're wrong btw, it's huge. The only reason why we don't hear about how huge it is is because the market doesn't expect it to be passed this year so hyping this thing up would mean creating a sell-off event later.

For what it's worth, the odds just jumped to 38% on Polymarket but that's still very low.

I guess 2027 it is then.

[yhiaali3]

I think the appropriate place for this topic is the legal section not in the speculation section.

In any case, Clarity Act faces significant challenges in ensuring its passage in the Senate before the parliamentary recess in August, as the bill needs 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles, this become more difficult after the death of Senator Lindsey Graham who was expected to be a strong supporter.

In addition, there are fundamental disagreements between Democrats and Republicans on three key issues relating to business ethics standards for companies linked to government officials, the protection of software developers, and rules relating to cryptocurrency rewards.

[tygeade]

I do not really think this as something that I would wait or hope for it to get it as quickly as possible. I think it is clear that we are going to see this as being something that is very small and not a big deal at all. For that purposes, I think it is clear that we are not going to end up with a large situation at all.

I think we should realize this is something as small as it gets for me and for that reason I am not waiting for it. ıt can happen tomorrow, it can happen in six months, for me it is the same thing.

This is not untrue, we do not really have to wait for this or hold our breath until it happens. This is something that will benefit us when it happens, but not hurting us until it happens neither. Not like we face any issues, specially if you are not American then you should not even care about this, it will impact the price a bit when it finally does happen, but until then it is not making the market go down because of it or anything like that.

It means that we do not have to care, and it could just happen whenever they have the time. If it happens next summer, it's the same as happening this summer for majority of the world, it is not really different at all. This is why this four weeks thing makes no difference for us.

[OgNasty]

I feel like this is going to get kicked down the road again. There is too much opportunity for politicians to get some quid pro quo going here. Supposedly everyone is on board with this, so why else would it constantly be delayed?

Not to mention I still don’t see how this positively affects Bitcoin.

[sergiorus]

I feel like this is going to get kicked down the road again.

Yup, most likely so.
 

Not to mention I still don’t see how this positively affects Bitcoin.

Directly it can only affect certain (many) altcoins, but overall sentiment improvement will indirectly affect Bitcoin as well although probably not significantly.

[JeffBrad12]

I think we should realize this is something as small as it gets for me and for that reason I am not waiting for it. ıt can happen tomorrow, it can happen in six months, for me it is the same thing.

The bill right here, literally got bankers, crypto exchanges, and several other party on the edge of their seat, by any means it's nothing small. So many interest in here, is why it has been delayed so far.

Though I have a feeling that it won't pass especially after the news about how Trump is making billions out of crypto.

[Dave1]

I think we should realize this is something as small as it gets for me and for that reason I am not waiting for it. ıt can happen tomorrow, it can happen in six months, for me it is the same thing.

The bill right here, literally got bankers, crypto exchanges, and several other party on the edge of their seat, by any means it's nothing small. So many interest in here, is why it has been delayed so far.

Though I have a feeling that it won't pass especially after the news about how Trump is making billions out of crypto.

So many players inside, and it's hard where this bill is going to pass because of forces trying to outmanuever each other. Delaying could be one tactic, but with so many involved, I doubt that they can push it again and again.

But in the end if could be Trump winning after all after the billions and his families did make on crypto so he might put pressures to approved this bill after all.

[Die_empty]

I feel like this is going to get kicked down the road again. There is too much opportunity for politicians to get some quid pro quo going here. Supposedly everyone is on board with this, so why else would it constantly be delayed?

The delay might be caused by lobbying by major bankers because of the provision that covers stablecoin yield bans. Some lawmakers are also delaying the bill because they want an inclusion of some ethics rules that will bar politicians from taking advantage of the crypto sector. 

Not to mention I still don’t see how this positively affects Bitcoin.

The section of the bill that established that open-source code developers would not be tagged as money transmitters for merely writing or transmitting their code might be a positive development. Privacy tools developers would not be held responsible for how their services are used if the bill is passed.

[sergiorus]

Some U.S. Senate Democrats come out against Clarity Act, calling it a 'corrupt' bill

Certain Democrats are taking an increasingly rigorous stand against the crypto market structure bill, which needs a significant number from their party to pass.


Source: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/14/some-u-s-senate-democrats-come-out-against-clarity-act-calling-it-a-corrupt-bill



So, this Saturday is the day. Polymarket odds rose very modestly and stand at 38%.

At this point it's probably certain not to be passed in 2026.

[Zoomic]

Looking at all the hurdles the bill will have to pass before getting cleared, I honestly don't think the timeframe given will be enough.

This doesn't look like a goodnews but the positive side is the Bitcoin network will not be halted regardless of how long the lawmakers take to sort things out. We know that regulatory clarity is good but the Bitcoin network does not depend on it to keep running. 

[JeffBrad12]

Some U.S. Senate Democrats come out against Clarity Act, calling it a 'corrupt' bill

Certain Democrats are taking an increasingly rigorous stand against the crypto market structure bill, which needs a significant number from their party to pass.


Source: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/14/some-u-s-senate-democrats-come-out-against-clarity-act-calling-it-a-corrupt-bill



So, this Saturday is the day. Polymarket odds rose very modestly and stand at 38%.

At this point it's probably certain not to be passed in 2026.

Democrats going to keep calling the bill corrupt as long as the bill doesn't clearly prohibit the president from benefiting off crypto. Pretty clear what the opposition senate wants and it's pretty clear why it won't happen as well, unless some miralce happen it won't pass.

[sergiorus]

The latest news on the matter (4 hours ago):

President Donald Trump is increasingly urging the U.S. Senate to pass landmark crypto legislation known as the Clarity Act.

In a Truth Social Post, Trump said the Senate should pass the bill in honor of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and to stay ahead of other countries in terms of crypto.

The Senate will break for recess on Aug. 11 and won't return until mid-September, leaving only a few weeks before both the Senate and House are out of session until the midterm elections.

"In order to pass a cryptocurrency market structure bill this year, we think Congress needs to finish the bill before the August recess," Sitfel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner said in a research note at the end of June, according to The Hill.
He added:
"Passing a bill during the lame duck session following the midterm elections is hypothetically possible, but unlikely... We expect that talks will continue, but the calendar is the enemy. Time is running short"



Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/president-donald-trump-just-told-095000440.html



Interestingly enough, the article amateurishly cites a Kalshi market [1] with very favourable odds of the bill passing, that has only $8000 in total volume.

Meanwhile, Polymarket [2] still prices the odds at below 40%, with more mature $1.9 million of total volumes.





[1] https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcryptostructure/crypto-market-structure/kxcryptostructure-26jan

[2] https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026

[bangjoe]

Instead of discussing it and writing about the potential for this law to be agreed or not on prediction market, I don't think it's necessary, maybe it would be nice for the draft law to be read here and discussed together which parts are good and which parts are still controversial or worried about harm if this law is passed, I think it's better.

If we associate it with the prediction market and become a discussion of betting, it is better to move the thread to the gambling discussion board.

[Donneski]

Ultimate capitulation event? I think it's too early to call it that. Let's assume the Clarity Act is passed now, you shouldn't expect the market to react like many people actually expect and that's because a lot of investors may have already priced in the possibility.

The best approach for me now is to wait and see the final outcome and then see how the market and big investors will respond afterward.

[sergiorus]

Ultimate capitulation event? I think it's too early to call it that. Let's assume the Clarity Act is passed now, you shouldn't expect the market to react like many people actually expect and that's because a lot of investors may have already priced in the possibility.

The best approach for me now is to wait and see the final outcome and then see how the market and big investors will respond afterward.

I never expected an immediate repricing or even a pump after it gets passed (although it would be very positive for the valuations in mid to long term).

The thing is, in a fragile market such as the current one, the news about the act not getting passed in 2026 could create a sharp drop as morale and patience are already very low. And so far it seems like it's not gonna get passed this year.

Long story short - if it's not passed in the next week or two (or whenever the hearing is) it won't be passed in 2026 at all. That will create a sharp sentiment drop and may cause a capitulation.