Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!

[davis196]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

[DrBeer]

Yes, I agree that many people try to take advantage of this, but they do so very cautiously, not publicly, and... out of fear of getting into serious trouble, facing lawsuits, huge fines, and reputational damage.
Trump has decided that he is "God on Earth" and "the most cunning", and that this will allow him to legally profit from illegal activities. We’ll see what happens after the election and a potential shift in the balance of power in U.S. politics. 

Trump might end up not making so much from his subscription. I assume this because only a few people might subscribe to this $100,000 package and use the information to make more money. They would just set up a platform where they share the insider information they get from Trump posts and redistribute it to others for a fee. Set up a social media platform where people can subscribe and pay a fee to get access to PONTUS posts. So third parties or middlemen will end up making more money.

Trump is really setting several morally wrong precedents as US president.

Trump is driven by money and power; that is the meaning of his life.
And he never misses an opportunity to make money anywhere, especially where the returns are very high. But there are situations where his greed and corruption aren’t enough, for example, insider trading, through which his family and close associates have already made billions, but the "scheme" turned out to be under threat. As you know, insider trading is a criminal offense in the U.S. that carries very severe penalties. So Trump’s advisors came up with a model where insider trading becomes a "perfectly legal activity". Let’s see how the judicial system, and those who understand the nature of Trump’s actions, will react next.

[Satofan44]

The fact is that what Trump wants to implement is not about prediction markets; it is, in essence, legalized corruption through "exclusive access" to critically important information, the use of which for personal gain could allow one to earn enormous sums "without lifting a finger", simply by lining the pockets of certain individuals-what is known as a "bribe".

Stop repeating this nonsense, I explained to you that this already exists and is completely legal. You are extremely biased against Trump, like many Islamic extremist retards from Iran on this forum. Either you are against low-latency news feeds or you are not, but if you are then you have to go after all of the ones that exist. Trump's news feed will be the most recent one in a long list of established news feeds of this kind, he should be the last person you are criticizing. Furthermore, it seems that a lot of people here are dirt port whether from Ukraine, Russia, or other 3rd world shitholes and they have a huge issue with envy regarding to the business dealings of others. Maybe you should instead look at your defense industry oligarchs that are enjoying the death of all the people in the battlefield before you focus on Trump and prediction markets.  

Why is it nonsense? It’s normal for you to have your own opinion. I have mine, and I have my arguments
Before accusing me of "repeating nonsense", you should look at the situation not just from the perspective of this specific case, but consider the bigger picture of Trump’s behavior.  I’ve written this more than once: in my personal opinion, Trump has decided that the U.S. presidency grants him the United States as a kind of "private business", or that he perceives the presidency as the transfer of the United States for his personal use, and as a "businessman", he uses it for his own commercial gain, just like a private business. However, he’s run up against the fact that, as it turns out, there are legislative and judicial branches in the U.S., and this is preventing him from "doing business". But Trump is VERY greedy when it comes to money, and knowing his past, I’ve come to the conclusion that this "project" is a symbiosis of power, corruption, and business. I don’t see any signs of stupidity in this.
Especially since we already know of many examples where people in Trump’s inner circle, just hours or days before he made certain statements, "coincidentally" took steps that "coincidentally" brought them massive profits within hours or days.

Not when we are talking about legal definitions of terms, there is no place for opinions. This is a distinction which, if a person fails, shows that they are usually full of nonsense and false opinions. You need to know where the difference between what is factual, what is definite and what is an opinion. The claims that this is insider information is false, it does not fit the legal definition of that. Then I demonstrated to you that these things already exist, and are widely used. Furthermore, I argued how this kind of setup is the exact opposite of insider information -- and it would never work as insider information. Someone who is reasonable and willing to listen would then accept that they were wrong, and say something like "that sounds correct, it is not insider information but it is still unethical or I still don't like it for whatever reason". If you just refuse or ignore information that factually disproves your claims or just shove it under "it is your opinion" that can only show two things:
1. You are not arguing in good faith, OR
2. You are stupid (like many users here).

Therefore, think and act properly. This is not a subjective question such as "is the U.S. a good country" which can be argued subjectively using objective data from both perspectives. What Trump is doing here, does not fit the definition of insider information as it is legally defined.

As far as the "bigger picture" is concerned: First, it still does not change anything about this being perfectly legal. Second, what about it? Do you think that I do not agree with that? Do you think that other presidents have not done this, I mean almost all of them? If you do think that this is a rare thing, then you are just naive. Trump is just a ruthless, direct, transparent person compared to what came before him. You are supposed to see this as a lesson of what almost all of them doing all the time, instead many weaklings especially in recent times the Iranian goat-fuckers get upset at him like little children. When someone says look at all the money Trump is earning with crypto or some shit like ethics rules in the CLARITY ACT, you forget that Pelosi and her colleagues made much more collectively and in many cases there are no ethics rules for them of any kind. If you can easily be manipulated to be hyperfocused on a single symptom of the system especially a single person, then YOU are missing the big picture.

[Perfectbaby]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

I wouldn’t blame anyone for that because no matter how pure they seems to be or even seems to sound there is always an ulterior motives towards that because non of them would want to rule or lead without even benefiting from their tenure.
That is why, even though the American tried to be as snow as white we can’t compared that to that of the Africans because they throughly being engulfed by greed and wanting everything for themselves.

[Filicius]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

I wouldn’t blame anyone for that because no matter how pure they seems to be or even seems to sound there is always an ulterior motives towards that because non of them would want to rule or lead without even benefiting from their tenure.
That is why, even though the American tried to be as snow as white we can’t compared that to that of the Africans because they throughly being engulfed by greed and wanting everything for themselves.

Yes, but precisely the United States of America, as the world's leading power (yet?) and precisely because it is so, should serve as an example to the rest of the nations. We all know that in banana republics corruption is carried out in a blatant way, but it is not what people expect from large nations to maintain hope.

[eisen33]

I wouldn’t blame anyone for that because no matter how pure they seems to be or even seems to sound there is always an ulterior motives towards that because non of them would want to rule or lead without even benefiting from their tenure.
That is why, even though the American tried to be as snow as white we can’t compared that to that of the Africans because they throughly being engulfed by greed and wanting everything for themselves.

They already have the benefits of government employment, higher pensions, lower utility bills, but that's not enough for them, they want much more. And when you associate in elite circles, you have a much better chance of getting insider information, and then everything depends on whether you can resist exploiting it. I think honest people are very few there, and the system is designed in such a way that there will always be loopholes that can be exploited to get more money if you're close to the elite.

[dzonikg28]

Not when we are talking about legal definitions of terms, there is no place for opinions. This is a distinction which, if a person fails, shows that they are usually full of nonsense and false opinions. You need to know where the difference between what is factual, what is definite and what is an opinion. The claims that this is insider information is false, it does not fit the legal definition of that. Then I demonstrated to you that these things already exist, and are widely used. Furthermore, I argued how this kind of setup is the exact opposite of insider information -- and it would never work as insider information. Someone who is reasonable and willing to listen would then accept that they were wrong, and say something like "that sounds correct, it is not insider information but it is still unethical or I still don't like it for whatever reason". If you just refuse or ignore information that factually disproves your claims or just shove it under "it is your opinion" that can only show two things:
1. You are not arguing in good faith, OR
2. You are stupid (like many users here).

Therefore, think and act properly. This is not a subjective question such as "is the U.S. a good country" which can be argued subjectively using objective data from both perspectives. What Trump is doing here, does not fit the definition of insider information as it is legally defined.

As far as the "bigger picture" is concerned: First, it still does not change anything about this being perfectly legal. Second, what about it? Do you think that I do not agree with that? Do you think that other presidents have not done this, I mean almost all of them? If you do think that this is a rare thing, then you are just naive. Trump is just a ruthless, direct, transparent person compared to what came before him. You are supposed to see this as a lesson of what almost all of them doing all the time, instead many weaklings especially in recent times the Iranian goat-fuckers get upset at him like little children. When someone says look at all the money Trump is earning with crypto or some shit like ethics rules in the CLARITY ACT, you forget that Pelosi and her colleagues made much more collectively and in many cases there are no ethics rules for them of any kind. If you can easily be manipulated to be hyperfocused on a single symptom of the system especially a single person, then YOU are missing the big picture.

I don't agree with everything satofan44 is saying, but I think this is neither his goal to convince everyone nor does it make any sense to always agree on everything. 

I would like to add a few things to the discussion though. satofan44 is right that by legal definition, selling early access to most of the things the president has to say, doesn't automatically constitute insider information abuse. But in my opinion satofan44 can't predict whether there will be such an abuse in the future. However, it will be very easy for Trump to keep dancing on that fine line between insider information abuse and expression of opinion as he is absolutely entitled to express his "opinion". I get that many here don't understand this fine distinction because they assume that whatever the president says and grants early access to, must be insider information, and that is just wrong as, how satofan44 explained, what really counts is the legal definition.

For example, if Trump says "after this weekend I think I am going to blow up Iran", gives early access and banks go long on oil, and then on Tuesday says "I heard they reached out to us, not gonna blow them up", it doesn't matter whether his words have the power to move markets, there is literally no way to legally attack him for that regardless of granting paid early access to that piece of information. He also does probably not give early access selectively to what he posts, but to every post he makes. That makes it even harder to attack him. It is just that he sells a time advantage to Social Truth users. Pretty strong business move if you think about it. A massive pull factor to generate new signups for his platform besides pushing his revenue through the roof. And that entails many more opportunities for him in many other areas.

Now satofan44 also mentioned that other presidents have done the same and I am surprised that a lot of people seem to have missed one of the most questionable pardons ever granted that just happened not too long ago and is a big topic in congress right now: Dr. Fauci was granted a preemptive pardon by Biden for 2014 till 2025. Everyone who saw Fauci answering questions in the congressional hearing, knows what a shit show it was when he invoked fifth amendment a few hundred times. Pardons are standard. Using insider information without getting caught is standard. Abusing presidential power or former presidential status to increase income is standard. There are many standards that apply to all of them equally, but indeed, Trump is taking transparency about it to a whole different level. He just doesn't hide what others (if possible) preferred to be hidden. 

[alani123]

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

The American supreme court is an institution directly tied to Trump. The majority of its judges were hired for life by him. He got a bit lucky in the timing and now the supreme court acts in his favour 95% of the time. He throws everything at them to see what sticks but they're already destroying so many things America had going for them. Abortion rights and affirmative action are two monumental examples.

Thankfully even trump judges are not too stupid to accept everything he throws at them but honestly they're already doing too much damage. They're never going to allow trump to lose his immunity or to be impeached or to have real charges against him for instance. For them insider trading is something they will happily overlook for as long as trump is alive.

[Orpichukwu]

Businessman Trump just wants to monetise everything and make sure he milks it before his end of tenure in office. How could such even be legal unless they will also have to ban some things from being stakeable in prediction markets? If not, the intention of anyone who is risking $100k monthly can’t be different from using such information to make money off the market.

[Rgram]

Trump is driven by money and power; that is the meaning of his life.
And he never misses an opportunity to make money anywhere, especially where the returns are very high. But there are situations where his greed and corruption aren’t enough, for example, insider trading, through which his family and close associates have already made billions, but the "scheme" turned out to be under threat. As you know, insider trading is a criminal offense in the U.S. that carries very severe penalties. So Trump’s advisors came up with a model where insider trading becomes a "perfectly legal activity". Let’s see how the judicial system, and those who understand the nature of Trump’s actions, will react next.

Before Trump ever started running for politics, his being a businessman and as a businessman, we know they are always about profit making and how to maximize the opportunities they’ve got. $100k isn’t a small money and certainly, it would take the rich of the rich to afford it for few seconds of info which offers opportunities to make cool money but, how certain are we that this news is coming from Trump and has got some legitimacy about it.

I was going through the OP and some comments with hopes to find the origin of this news to have come from Trumps verified handle even though, he might not be managing it himself. You know these kind of infos that allows some persons gain an edge over the masses isn’t fair and would always be a criminal act so, it’s really disbelieving that they would be so open about it.

[Iranus]

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

US law prohibit government official from participating in matters that could financially benefit themselves or their businesses. However, the president and vice president are exempt from those provisions. They have also passed an insider trading law, but ironically, Trump is exempt from it as well.

It could be said that the US legal system has loopholes, and Trump is taking full advantage of them instead of voluntarily following the same standards of integrity upheld by previous president.

Based on current US law, what he is doing may not be illegal. That is why it would be very difficult to sue or impeach him over this issue.

https://www.newsweek.com/house-passes-the-stop-insider-trading-act-but-trump-is-exempt-12232811

[o48o]

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

Well his legal team obviously going with "it was an official presidential act, so it has immunity". And it's not like supreme court has nothing else on the que when it comes to Trump and corruption.

What's interesting is that Trump is old and sick man who isn't going to be around for much longer, so everyone else gaining from his corrupt acts is probably going to be investigated and that's going to take decades.

I am going so far that i predict when Trump finally gets hospitalized, they will pull another Mitch McConnell's prove of life scheme and start to pardon people like there's no tomorrow.

[AmoreJaz]

Trump is driven by money and power; that is the meaning of his life.
And he never misses an opportunity to make money anywhere, especially where the returns are very high. But there are situations where his greed and corruption aren’t enough, for example, insider trading, through which his family and close associates have already made billions, but the "scheme" turned out to be under threat. As you know, insider trading is a criminal offense in the U.S. that carries very severe penalties. So Trump’s advisors came up with a model where insider trading becomes a "perfectly legal activity". Let’s see how the judicial system, and those who understand the nature of Trump’s actions, will react next.

Before Trump ever started running for politics, his being a businessman and as a businessman, we know they are always about profit making and how to maximize the opportunities they’ve got. $100k isn’t a small money and certainly, it would take the rich of the rich to afford it for few seconds of info which offers opportunities to make cool money but, how certain are we that this news is coming from Trump and has got some legitimacy about it.

I was going through the OP and some comments with hopes to find the origin of this news to have come from Trumps verified handle even though, he might not be managing it himself. You know these kind of infos that allows some persons gain an edge over the masses isn’t fair and would always be a criminal act so, it’s really disbelieving that they would be so open about it.

I am on the side of giving the benefit of the doubt. Because we don't know the absolute truth behind this propaganda. For all we know, Trump doesn't even know its existence. So we can't really judge him for this especially if we can't get the veracity of this information. People will always say something and so the information when it is passed to one another can change the narrative. So for me, I won't blame Trump for this act because I don't know the reality behind this info.

[Sandra_hakeem]

Right now, predictions don't hold much weight. Just look at the fact that you have to abide by the rules or regulations of the war imposed by the USA. Yes, Trump has a lot to do with it; now Trump is the type who manages these things. That's why, while we believe that technical analyses can be done like before, it's not the case. But it's still a big business for casinos in predictions, contests, or things like that.

Trump has implicated/ tried to get entangled with everything that the public consumes. Football, basketball, name them.. all or sudden, another sovereign nation needs to abide by Trump's law, even when there's a pending war. I also heard some conspiracies about Trump's son getting caught for trying to manipulate gambling in some type of ways--- I can't recall, but they were reported to have insider knowledge. I have forgotten what it was about but I'll search for it again.

[free-bit.co.in]

Is this a rhetorical question? It's obvious that Trump wants to sell insider information. The big question here is, why is the American Supreme Court doing nothing? What are they waiting for? I can assume that Trump has immunity when it comes to legal actions against him, so I'm pretty sure that he will get sued for insider trading, after his presidential mandate ends. This is the most blatant attempt of selling insider information I've ever seen. Trump had increased his wealth a lot after becoming a president of the US. He's really greedy and wants to make as such money as possible before his presidency ends.

What's the point of muddying the water on whether Trump is guilty or not? First tell me whether there should be an exemption at all?
This is not Trump's problem, rather, it is an institutional incentive problem.
If law exempts the President from conflict of interest rule, whoever comes into power in future will have an incentive to use the same loophole.

So what is the benefit of criticizing only the person? It is the rules that are in question.

Only by proving the crime will not increase everyone's confidence in the market. Rather a lot depends on whether everyone is under equal rules or not. Because if people think there are different rule for powerful then market integrity will suffer and the trust premium will decrease.

Just because something is legal doesn't necessarily mean it's morally acceptable.

[GiftedMAN]

Businessman Trump just wants to monetise everything and make sure he milks it before his end of tenure in office. How could such even be legal unless they will also have to ban some things from being stakeable in prediction markets? If not, the intention of anyone who is risking $100k monthly can’t be different from using such information to make money off the market.

Trump is just looking for different means to make fast money through the market right from the beginning of his tenure till today his name has always been in the news because of his he's been manipulating things to favour himself and his family. The things that he considers as illegal are things that he do not benefit from but if it favours him and he can make crazy amounts from it then do not expect him to see that as evil. The Market is some how controlled by him it he decides to ban any prediction then expect him to be out to tight to make sure the decision stands.

[Frankolala]

Businessman Trump just wants to monetise everything and make sure he milks it before his end of tenure in office. How could such even be legal unless they will also have to ban some things from being stakeable in prediction markets? If not, the intention of anyone who is risking $100k monthly can’t be different from using such information to make money off the market.

Trump is just looking for different means to make fast money through the market right from the beginning of his tenure till today his name has always been in the news because of his he's been manipulating things to favour himself and his family. The things that he considers as illegal are things that he do not benefit from but if it favours him and he can make crazy amounts from it then do not expect him to see that as evil. The Market is some how controlled by him it he decides to ban any prediction then expect him to be out to tight to make sure the decision stands.

But it shouldn't be so. It's clear that human are only after themselves even though, they proclaim that they're after giving the country their best. Everything Trump is doing is just for his own selfish interest but put America in front. Was it Americans that said he should be manipulating the market in his favor to make money from unnecessary events caused by him.

[Perfectbaby]

But it shouldn't be so. It's clear that human are only after themselves even though, they proclaim that they're after giving the country their best. Everything Trump is doing is just for his own selfish interest but put America in front. Was it Americans that said he should be manipulating the market in his favor to make money from unnecessary events caused by him.

Of course that is the work of almost 99% of all those that are in power, what they regularly preach is to make their country better and gives every citizen what they deserved but you would be surprised that after making all these promises they will be elected and yet they still carry out their own business plans, which everyone knows that they are there for selfish interests, and for sure they often claim to be the best of all but still there are things which they are not even doing well. As we all knows, Trump is a business orientated giant and he wouldn't do anything without putting his own benefits at the forefront.

[Emitdama]

Businessman Trump just wants to monetise everything and make sure he milks it before his end of tenure in office. How could such even be legal unless they will also have to ban some things from being stakeable in prediction markets? If not, the intention of anyone who is risking $100k monthly can’t be different from using such information to make money off the market.

Shouldn't marketplaces or betting platforms take the initiative of not allowing such bets in the first place? We all know that platforms such as Polymarket are known for allowing their bettors to bet on such events and stuff, where they can predict what a politician will or will not do in a specific period, whether who will win the elections, and a bunch of other stuff. The platforms, once they come to know that insider information is being sold to bettors, should avoid allowing people to make such bets because it is only going to bring them losses since those who pay $100k to get insider information will bet very high amounts to recover their money or make some profits.

I don't know about any other platform that I have seen with such betting options, but I know Polymarket has been doing that lately. I have seen a bunch of videos where people are making bets on things that Trump would or wouldn't say in specific months of a year, and they either win with some odds provided by the platform, or lose their bet if he doesn't say that thing. But previously, there was no news of him or his team selling insider information before they become public, which is an indicator that these betting opportunities are going to be highly misused by those who might go ahead and buy that information from them.

[programmer3666]

People here often talk a lot about prediction markets, and stories frequently "surface" about insider information that gives a huge advantage in such bets. Over the past year, we’ve often seen stories about people directly or indirectly connected to Trump and his inner circle, and there’s been plenty of discussion on this topic here.
Let’s not get into politics, but rather return to the topic of predictions and methods for obtaining information to improve the effectiveness of betting in these markets.
Today I came across an interesting news story about Trump’s new "business plan".
Take a look at the "brilliance" of this solution:
"Trump wants to sell early access to his posts for $100,000 a month.
As a reminder, Trump Media has introduced a paid API for Truth Social, through which banks, funds, and traders will be able to receive posts from the platform a few seconds before everyone else.
The service will include posts from the 10 largest Truth Social accounts, including Donald Trump’s. The company expects that such access will be in demand among market participants who trade on news.
The price tag is $100,000 a month".

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

That is a clever move, but it is also kind of shady. Selling early access to posts basically means some people get to act on information before the rest of the world even sees it. In the financial world, that will be considered an advantage and if it is tied to someone like Donald Trump, whose words can surely move the direction of the markets, it becomes very valuable. It might not be illegal insider trading in the traditional sense, but it definitely blurs the lines. You are paying for speed, not secrets. Still, when that speed can make you money in prediction markets or stock trades, it is the same outcome. Whether it is fair or not depends on who you ask. But one thing is for sure!!!! It is a smart way to turn attention into sweet cash.