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Author Topic: Prediction markets, insider information, and... Trump!  (Read 930 times)
Satofan44
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August 07, 2026, 12:30:07 PM
 #101

It's very obvious, it is not a question that when someone pays for a subscription to get their hand on information earlier, they have a legal right to use that information however they want without them being held as like they violated any rules, and we all know for such that there is always a high chance of Trump post having effect in the market and could also be available on staking in prediction market, those who have $100k to pay monthly will also have millions to stake to take advantage of that information.
There’s always some new stunt from Donald Trump, not only does he frequently cause panic in the markets, but now he’s even encroaching on the prediction market sector. It’s truly unbelievable.

Of course, this will give rise to all sorts of speculation about fairness in the prediction market, because there will be a handful of people who have early access to information, simply because they have more money to pay for that access. Those of us who don’t have extra money can only make predictions based on our own analysis, while others have already made decisions based on the information they’ve obtained.
One topic has literally nothing to do with the other. Donald Trump was always this kind of personality, it is not like he started to become manipulative in a way to hide who he truly is. If markets are extremely responding to the statements or actions of Donald Trump, then that is an issue with the market participants and not with Trump himself. He is who he is, and only irrational market participants act. His impulsiveness and radical transparency long predates any kind of relevance of prediction markets, thus any claims that Trump is abusing his position of power to manipulate such a market is ridiculously biased and outright stupid. It would actually be less ridiculous to claim that prediction markets were purposely built by others who want to capitalize on influential people in the world, not that they were built by those very same people.

Therefore, it is time to stop making up shit. If you or anyone else has some kind of proof to bring forth, do it -- otherwise just shut up and stop making baseless accusations. Insider information in prediction markets has no impact on you unless you placing bets the completely wrong way.

hedgeh0g
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August 07, 2026, 01:04:35 PM
 #102

People here often talk a lot about prediction markets, and stories frequently "surface" about insider information that gives a huge advantage in such bets. Over the past year, we’ve often seen stories about people directly or indirectly connected to Trump and his inner circle, and there’s been plenty of discussion on this topic here.
Let’s not get into politics, but rather return to the topic of predictions and methods for obtaining information to improve the effectiveness of betting in these markets.
Today I came across an interesting news story about Trump’s new "business plan".
Take a look at the "brilliance" of this solution:
"Trump wants to sell early access to his posts for $100,000 a month.
As a reminder, Trump Media has introduced a paid API for Truth Social, through which banks, funds, and traders will be able to receive posts from the platform a few seconds before everyone else.
The service will include posts from the 10 largest Truth Social accounts, including Donald Trump’s. The company expects that such access will be in demand among market participants who trade on news.
The price tag is $100,000 a month".

Doesn’t this seem like an attempt to legalize and monetize access to insider information? What do you think?

Trump is a president who always likes to make money out of everything, and he has already driven his attempts to make money to the point of complete absurdity, even though he is already incredibly rich. There was information that he had already earned more in the last two years than in all the time before . And I don't like his moral character, I think it's not normal for the president of America to be ridiculed because of his actions. As a result, he shows that he is not responsible for his words at all. And the president should not be a merchant and someone who does not take his words seriously .

 
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