Bitcoin bottom just 11 weeks away?

[JamesDaniel90]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

so July 23 plus 77 days is October 8th I will keep your guess in mind.


But this bullpen was the first to hit an ATH before the 1/2ing so it could very well be you are off by months.

In 2021 Bitcoin hit an all time high 9th November, it then bottomed 21st November 2022 so i dont think i am that far off with my prediction considering Bitcoin topped October 6th last year as it is roughly a year from top to bottom.

[alastantiger]

Everyone is waiting for the right moment on this issue. Bitcoin has eroded people’s faith in something that seemed so certain time and time again that I feel it won’t surprise us this time either. So far, this bear market has been less severe than previous ones. The price dropped to about half of its all-time high and is currently trading slightly above that level. But I think we’ll see a bottom around the $50,000–$55,000 range.

I don't understand the obsession with Bitcoin bottom being reached because if people have been accumulating then they would not be that bothered about the bottom of Bitcoin. Investors that have being investing in Bitcoin few months ago do not have time to be waiting for the bottom of the market because they have already invested in Bitcoin and they will buy more in the future. I do not like when people are too concerned about the price of Bitcoin because most times they do not end up buying but instead continue procrastinating. If you want to buy Bitcoin you do not need to be monitoring the bottom of the market but instead you are supposed to DCA into Bitcoin and then wait for the market to increase in the future.

[G_Besar]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

The price you're asking for is already too low, and it hasn't happened this year for Bitcoin. So, considering Bitcoin's all-time high, I don't think it's wrong to buy now or after the $60,000 mark breaks through, even if it doesn't break below $56,000. For now and in the near future, Bitcoin's price will continue to hover above $60,000, so the price correction between the decline and the increase won't be too large. So buying at the current price is also not too bad for anyone who wants to add Bitcoin to their personal wallet.

[AprilioMP]

so July 23 plus 77 days is October 8th I will keep your guess in mind.

But this bullpen was the first to hit an ATH before the 1/2ing so it could very well be you are off by months.

In 2021 Bitcoin hit an all time high 9th November, it then bottomed 21st November 2022 so i dont think i am that far off with my prediction considering Bitcoin topped October 6th last year as it is roughly a year from top to bottom.

The Bitcoin market has previously experienced a downturn of over 90%, which we refer to as a bear market, and there has always been a recovery. Before 2021, I tried to point out that this had happened in 2011, specifically between June 2011 and November 2011. We still remember the flash crash and the first Mt. Gox hack. At that time, the price of Bitcoin fell by more than 90% from its all-time high (ATH).

Now, in 2021–2022, the Bitcoin market experienced a decline of more than 75% from its ATH of $69,000 reached in 2021. If I’m not mistaken, the triggers were the war in Russia, the FTX exchange scandal, and the LUNA scandal.

[Bushdark]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

We don't know if 4 years cycle will continue although we have been hearing that the 4 years cycle have a u-turn and we might not be experiencing a complete 4 years of bull market and another 4 years of bear market. The price of Bitcoin is not stable at all and I am certain that a time will come when the price of Bitcoin is going to fall below the $40k level and we might be seeing it maybe below.

We should not also forget that the price of Bitcoin has really dropped from $150k to $60k plus is a 50%  below drop in price. If the price of Bitcoin go as far as dropping to $30k, that will be 70% below drop in price which is not going to favour the market and investors at all.

[DiMarxist]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

Common I don't see the price going as low as $35k, the probability of seeing that will be very difficult because that is off the table we should be expecting an average of $50k price range.

I just hope that this will be the last bottom that we should be seeing, after the bottom what we should be expecting is seeing how Bitcoin should bounce back . This correction has taken much time and I think that it's time for it to retrace back to the top , when the bull run will begin again.

Let just hope that from now till the end of this year we will be through with this price correction which started late last year.and has continued till this moment the next drop in price we will be seeing will be the biggest because we will be seeing Bitcoin getting to a all time low, since Bitcoin move above a$100k some times ago.

[Decimetre]

Would Strategy get into trouble in the mid 40s range? If they were to decide to sell BTC in a moment like that, I think it could send bitcoin further south.

No, as long as the bottom happens in 2026 or early to mid 2027, then Strategy is perfectly fine due to their 3500 BTC sale which covers the whole crypto winter.

But to those speculationg about a bottom in that area in late 2026, take into account:

If 46k is the bottom (or 48, or 50, or 44 ...), this also means that 60k is still a quite good price. In many cases the best prices didn't last for too long (the extreme was the 2015 bottom, when it only dipped for one day below 150$ and then it got fast back into the $200 area, i.e. most people missed a 30% additional dip).

So if you are expecting that price, I'd recommend to put your orders in place now, and not in October, and above all: not move them. Because human psychology is a b*tch: If we hover around 60k some weeks more and then get a low around or below 50k in October, many will think that it will go to 30k or so. And many of those could miss the real bottom. It's also possible the bottom arrives in August or September, because of "cycle frontrunning".

On the other hand you could miss the bottom also because you're too greedy, because there is no law saying that the bottom must be at 46k. I would thus start buying in the high 50s (or even low 60s) and increase the orders to the downside.

tl;dr: it's not important to catch the bottom exactly, if Bitcoin still is in a long term bull, then it's important to buy before the next FOMO phase at >100k

Rightly said. It's not just about expecting the bottom to occur, it may occur even as low as $40k and greed won't allow folks to buy because they believe it could dip further. Nothing is fixed and no one can be too sure of whether a lower bottom is going to occur below the $55k or whether we could wait until October or so. $40k to $60k is a 50% difference and  $60k to $130k is over 100% rise. If a person has a long-term goal, then the current price of bitcoin would be treated as though we're at the bottom instead of waiting further for an uncertain bottom that may never also occur, moreover we all believes there could be a new ATH before the end of the new cycle. Greed causes fear of missing out and this same fear of missing out leads a person into making the wrong decisions to wait further when he can be buying gradually by DCA while also expecting further Dip since we're also at a fair price for buying now.

[pusaka]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

The price you're asking for is already too low, and it hasn't happened this year for Bitcoin. So, considering Bitcoin's all-time high, I don't think it's wrong to buy now or after the $60,000 mark breaks through, even if it doesn't break below $56,000. For now and in the near future, Bitcoin's price will continue to hover above $60,000, so the price correction between the decline and the increase won't be too large. So buying at the current price is also not too bad for anyone who wants to add Bitcoin to their personal wallet.

Talking about Bitcoin reaching its lowest price of 35,000 is indeed too low, but is it impossible? I would say no, because we don't know what the future holds. Who knows, something could shake things up and impact the Bitcoin price.

However, I think 50,000 is a good price to start buying, and as you said, we could actually start buying gradually at 60,000. If the price drops even lower, I don't think it's something to worry about; in fact, it's a good opportunity to buy more, of course, with proper financial and risk management.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

We don't know if 4 years cycle will continue although we have been hearing that the 4 years cycle have a u-turn and we might not be experiencing a complete 4 years of bull market and another 4 years of bear market. The price of Bitcoin is not stable at all and I am certain that a time will come when the price of Bitcoin is going to fall below the $40k level and we might be seeing it maybe below.

But so far, the 4 year cycle is still holding true in this bear market. And so with that there is a big chance that the price is still going to bottom. Although we have seen in June as low as ~$57k, but it might not yet the lowest low.

We should not also forget that the price of Bitcoin has really dropped from $150k to $60k plus is a 50%  below drop in price. If the price of Bitcoin go as far as dropping to $30k, that will be 70% below drop in price which is not going to favour the market and investors at all.

The last bear market, we have a drop of around of around  -77%, and we have a average of -83%. So if we go by that numbers, we might still drop to $37k. I know it looks scary, nevertheless, after that final lowest low, what follows is going to be big in the bull run.

[Crytohillss]

Would Strategy get into trouble in the mid 40s range? If they were to decide to sell BTC in a moment like that, I think it could send bitcoin further south.

No, as long as the bottom happens in 2026 or early to mid 2027, then Strategy is perfectly fine due to their 3500 BTC sale which covers the whole crypto winter.

But to those speculationg about a bottom in that area in late 2026, take into account:

If 46k is the bottom (or 48, or 50, or 44 ...), this also means that 60k is still a quite good price. In many cases the best prices didn't last for too long (the extreme was the 2015 bottom, when it only dipped for one day below 150$ and then it got fast back into the $200 area, i.e. most people missed a 30% additional dip).

So if you are expecting that price, I'd recommend to put your orders in place now, and not in October, and above all: not move them. Because human psychology is a b*tch: If we hover around 60k some weeks more and then get a low around or below 50k in October, many will think that it will go to 30k or so. And many of those could miss the real bottom. It's also possible the bottom arrives in August or September, because of "cycle frontrunning".

On the other hand you could miss the bottom also because you're too greedy, because there is no law saying that the bottom must be at 46k. I would thus start buying in the high 50s (or even low 60s) and increase the orders to the downside.

tl;dr: it's not important to catch the bottom exactly, if Bitcoin still is in a long term bull, then it's important to buy before the next FOMO phase at >100k

Rightly said. It's not just about expecting the bottom to occur, it may occur even as low as $40k and greed won't allow folks to buy because they believe it could dip further. Nothing is fixed and no one can be too sure of whether a lower bottom is going to occur below the $55k or whether we could wait until October or so. $40k to $60k is a 50% difference and  $60k to $130k is over 100% rise. If a person has a long-term goal, then the current price of bitcoin would be treated as though we're at the bottom instead of waiting further for an uncertain bottom that may never also occur, moreover we all believes there could be a new ATH before the end of the new cycle. Greed causes fear of missing out and this same fear of missing out leads a person into making the wrong decisions to wait further when he can be buying gradually by DCA while also expecting further Dip since we're also at a fair price for buying now.

Yes, it's not just about waiting for the right bottom to happen if it's occur with as low as $40k that is not suppose to be your concern don't allow greed  to mislead you or waiting for the dip to move on before you believe it can get foward
 Don't allow greed to make you think that you most wait till when bitcoin increase to 50k or 64k  before you can begin your bitcoin investment. you are very correct greed causess people to miss out their opportunity.

[Kelward]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

It has been over three weeks since your prediction of expecting to seeing Bitcoin fall to a bottom of $35k, although I doubt that you control the market to make it happen and I believe that Bitcoin cannot dip that low in this bear run, there is no indications so far that it can slump to that level. We are free to speculate how we like or believe what analysts that prophesy doom for Bitcoin have to say but after recent news that was supposed to be negative fundamentals for Bitcoin to hit a lower bottom like the Strategy sell of their Bitcoin it is still quite stable around the same positions.

I wonder for how long the four years circles would still be a yardstick to speculate Bitcoin seasons because unlike before a whale can decide to dump their Bitcoin on the market at anytime which would distort the four years circles. When there is bear run we should buy and hold then wait for bull run for as long as it will take to happen.

[JamesDaniel90]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

It has been over three weeks since your prediction of expecting to seeing Bitcoin fall to a bottom of $35k, although I doubt that you control the market to make it happen and I believe that Bitcoin cannot dip that low in this bear run, there is no indications so far that it can slump to that level. We are free to speculate how we like or believe what analysts that prophesy doom for Bitcoin have to say but after recent news that was supposed to be negative fundamentals for Bitcoin to hit a lower bottom like the Strategy sell of their Bitcoin it is still quite stable around the same positions.

I wonder for how long the four years circles would still be a yardstick to speculate Bitcoin seasons because unlike before a whale can decide to dump their Bitcoin on the market at anytime which would distort the four years circles. When there is bear run we should buy and hold then wait for bull run for as long as it will take to happen.

I didnt say it would go down to $35k. I said i have heard some say it will fall that low but for me i predict somewhere between $44-50k.

We still have 8 weeks for my bottom prediction to come true, plenty of time.   Bitcoin can fall very quickly in just a few days.

I am happy either way, if we bottom around $50k then i will buy cheap, if not then i am ready for another bull run.

[348Judah]

We may speculate the market and do our own research on different occasions, have different results and point out on various observations we have seen with the market performance, but there is no accuracy to guarantee or backup what we are giving with 100% certainty to be as exactly as we have suggested, sometimes we might be wrong, and sometimes we might be right or close to being accurate, but no one should give you a precise speculations and give you 100% assurance to it, has anything is planned to happen and cause a change at any time and it may be a luck that it's remains as it has been observed.

[Emitdama]

We may speculate the market and do our own research on different occasions, have different results and point out on various observations we have seen with the market performance, but there is no accuracy to guarantee or backup what we are giving with 100% certainty to be as exactly as we have suggested, sometimes we might be wrong, and sometimes we might be right or close to being accurate, but no one should give you a precise speculations and give you 100% assurance to it, has anything is planned to happen and cause a change at any time and it may be a luck that it's remains as it has been observed.

While this could also be considered "research", because you do need to research what has happened in the past. You also need to realise that this is more about historical patterns and what happened in the past, and not about a guess about the future alone. Sure, you look at the past and try to predict the future, so yes, it is speculation nevertheless, but that doesn't mean that it is about anything regarding the future; it is about the history of Bitcoin.

And we have done this exact thing many times before in history, so people are asking, "The thing that has happened many times before may happen again, won't it?" and the most likely answer to that would be that yes, it will happen again, because why would it not happen again? If something, which is the start of Q4 or near abouts, being the lowest point during bear markets, has happened in the past every single time, why would there be a reason for it to not happen again this time around? Is there proof that it won't? So the only logical argument that it is likely to happen again.

[Franctoshi]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

One thing I have noticed from 2017 down here in my journey with Bitcoin price speculation is that Bitcoin tends to fool the majority. There has been a lot of speculation regarding Bitcoin bleeding down to $45k, including my analysis and indicators that I use, but I'm beginning to reason otherwise, and hence your perspective about Bitcoin's possible recovery in roughly 3 months from now, which my indicator also points to as a bear market bottom to kick in around October 2026 - January 2027. If we see another price drop, that's going to be the final flush out to the beginning of a price recovery.

[Cheema02]

I don't understand the obsession with Bitcoin bottom being reached because if people have been accumulating then they would not be that bothered about the bottom of Bitcoin. Investors that have being investing in Bitcoin few months ago do not have time to be waiting for the bottom of the market because they have already invested in Bitcoin and they will buy more in the future. I do not like when people are too concerned about the price of Bitcoin because most times they do not end up buying but instead continue procrastinating. If you want to buy Bitcoin you do not need to be monitoring the bottom of the market but instead you are supposed to DCA into Bitcoin and then wait for the market to increase in the future.

Those who are able to accumulate Bitcoin using the DCA method would never worry or care about the bottom because they will keep accumulating regardless of the price. However, those who can't do that because their capital being small doesn't allow them to go for the DCA method, which is why they are mostly just speculating and waiting for the bottom or at least for a better price than the current one so that they can buy Bitcoin with whatever balance they have since they don't have any hope of being able to buy more very soon.

It's all about having a proper income that can allow you to allocate a specific percentage of your total earnings towards your Bitcoin investments, and not all of us are blessed with that, because so many people barely earn enough to be able to cover their monthly expenses, and in that case, they will obviously not be able to DCA into Bitcoin every month, so whatever they can save after some months or even years, they want the best price for them to buy their bitcoins with it.

[jossiel]

Those who are able to accumulate Bitcoin using the DCA method would never worry or care about the bottom because they will keep accumulating regardless of the price. However, those who can't do that because their capital being small doesn't allow them to go for the DCA method, which is why they are mostly just speculating and waiting for the bottom or at least for a better price than the current one so that they can buy Bitcoin with whatever balance they have since they don't have any hope of being able to buy more very soon.

Yes and I am one of them, before I kept on worrying when the prices were dropping so fast but not anymore today. Although I still feel some small worry but that's a normal reaction that later on is gone.

For as long as the price is considered as a good buy and I have money ready to use then it won't matter a lot. What matters to the investors who continue to accumulate is about the quantity that we'll have when the bull run comes.

Or not even a bull run but when we look a longer term of having bitcoin. It's a limited supply and no brainer that someone who owns a few is having an asset that's rare to many.

It won't make sense that people believes to the future of Bitcoin and yet, they're not taking actions as simple as accumulating even with the little they have.

[OgNasty]

Feels like people are trying to front-run the bottom. Today’s move is the biggest in 5 months (according to Grok). I still feel like we could be facing a head fake situation, but even so, it is likely that this will be considered a good entry point when you look back a year or two from now.

[drangos]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

One thing I have noticed from 2017 down here in my journey with Bitcoin price speculation is that Bitcoin tends to fool the majority. There has been a lot of speculation regarding Bitcoin bleeding down to $45k, including my analysis and indicators that I use, but I'm beginning to reason otherwise, and hence your perspective about Bitcoin's possible recovery in roughly 3 months from now, which my indicator also points to as a bear market bottom to kick in around October 2026 - January 2027. If we see another price drop, that's going to be the final flush out to the beginning of a price recovery.

I do agree the 4 year cycle is a time frame to be considered. However the 11 week time frame should not be a bottom indicator. Bitcoin has frequently disappointed the masses. Particularly during the times when everyone thinks that it is going to reach a certain price. The possibility of dipping back to $44k–$50k is just as likely as that of going down to $35k. Which would likely require a much more severe capitulation. I believe it's more realistic for long term investors to try and do this slowly when they see a big dip. If a major flush occurs again in the period between late-2026 and early-2027. It may be a good start opportunity. However the market can surprise expectations yet again. And therefore it's crucial to be patient and have a strategy in place.

[laijsica]

If the 4 year cycle is still to continue and you compare it to previous cycles then Bitcoin will bottom in roughly 11 weeks and i am curious to hear how low we all think it will go?

I have seen some say as low as $35k but id be very surprised if it goes that low.

I think the bottom will be between $44-50k and my current plan is to buy more regularly soon as it falls below $56k.

Bitcoin price is difficult to predict in advance but I have no doubt that long term holders will get the desired returns. If your prediction is true it is not a cause for panic as the price will be bullish again after a certain period of correction. The market is going through a long correction after last year's ATH. The market has been in an uptrend since yesterday and the bull run has started and is preparing to cross $70k.

Despite this upward trend in the market I suspect another correction but it is difficult to predict when it will start. I don't think it will go that low as you have feared.