The dilemma associated with investing in altcoins

[JaanusRaim]

There is a clear schism in my altcoin investment plans.

In the long run, I believe that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will reach more than 100 trillion US dollars in terms of USD current purchasing power and that, in a couple of decades, there will be many many Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies with market values ​​reaching a trillion dollars. (Of course, there is a significant probability that I am mistaken and cryptocurrencies will disappear or remain marginal.)

In the short to medium run, I predict that the prices of cryptocurrencies (and especially altcoins!) will fall remarkably, as a stock market crash is likely in the near future. I estimate that the probability of a stock market crash - a decline of at least 50% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index from its all-time high - is somewhere 20-30% per year. (The March 2020 mini-crash showed that Bitcoin fell much more than the stock market, and altcoins much more than Bitcoin.)

Therefore, my long-term and short-term forecasts regarding altcoin prices are in sharp contrast.
One solution to this dilemma would be to use DCA, but set aside half of the funds for a stock market crash era ? 

[Dunamisx]

Of dce strategy is very effective in Bitcoin investment but I don't know that of altcoins, so you have to be very more careful so as not to invest on any coin or token that will later turn a liability or scam, just be specific with your criterias that will be used in choosing which one to invest and also engage more thorough research, this will help you, I also like the fact that you diversify your investment at the same time not to go to a trade on a single asset.

[TastyChillySauce00]

In the long run, I believe that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will reach more than 100 trillion US dollars in terms of USD current purchasing power and that, in a couple of decades, there will be many many Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies with market values ​​reaching a trillion dollars. (Of course, there is a significant probability that I am mistaken and cryptocurrencies will disappear or remain marginal.)

What if the future of cryptocurrency is consolidation of capital that were fragmented across altcoins? as the market matures people will prefer to invest into something that actually have strong fundamental and have working business model like Ethereum? from every cycle we've seen that altcoins come and go except very few.

In the short to medium run, I predict that the prices of cryptocurrencies (and especially altcoins!) will fall remarkably, as a stock market crash is likely in the near future. I estimate that the probability of a stock market crash - a decline of at least 50% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index from its all-time high - is somewhere 20-30% per year. (The March 2020 mini-crash showed that Bitcoin fell much more than the stock market, and altcoins much more than Bitcoin.)

Therefore, my long-term and short-term forecasts regarding altcoin prices are in sharp contrast.
One solution to this dilemma would be to use DCA, but set aside half of the funds for a stock market crash era ?  

Bitcoin and stock has shown some notable periods of divergence, I personally don't believe if stock were to go down, crypto will go down as well because crypto is already heavily undervalued especially bitcoin. Altcoin, has already shown about 90% decline for majority of them. If it goes down even further it will be the doom of altcoins.

I'm guessing that since there are tokenized stocks on the blockchain, the fall of stock price will be the cause of capital flight from the stock market and rotate to crypto. It is possible after the tokenized stock is a thing and good amount of traditional finance capital is moving on the blockchain.

[JaanusRaim]

In the long run, I believe that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will reach more than 100 trillion US dollars in terms of USD current purchasing power and that, in a couple of decades, there will be many many Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies with market values ​​reaching a trillion dollars. (Of course, there is a significant probability that I am mistaken and cryptocurrencies will disappear or remain marginal.)

What if the future of cryptocurrency is consolidation of capital that were fragmented across altcoins? as the market matures people will prefer to invest into something that actually have strong fundamental and have working business model like Ethereum? from every cycle we've seen that altcoins come and go except very few.

In the short to medium run, I predict that the prices of cryptocurrencies (and especially altcoins!) will fall remarkably, as a stock market crash is likely in the near future. I estimate that the probability of a stock market crash - a decline of at least 50% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index from its all-time high - is somewhere 20-30% per year. (The March 2020 mini-crash showed that Bitcoin fell much more than the stock market, and altcoins much more than Bitcoin.)

Therefore, my long-term and short-term forecasts regarding altcoin prices are in sharp contrast.
One solution to this dilemma would be to use DCA, but set aside half of the funds for a stock market crash era ?  

Bitcoin and stock has shown some notable periods of divergence, I personally don't believe if stock were to go down, crypto will go down as well because crypto is already heavily undervalued especially bitcoin. Altcoin, has already shown about 90% decline for majority of them. If it goes down even further it will be the doom of altcoins.

I'm guessing that since there are tokenized stocks on the blockchain, the fall of stock price will be the cause of capital flight from the stock market and rotate to crypto. It is possible after the tokenized stock is a thing and good amount of traditional finance capital is moving on the blockchain.

Of cause, many scenarios are possible. The abovementioned is just the one I find the most probable similar to https://medium.com/@johncpalmer/what-if-everyone-had-their-own-cryptocurrency-551ea2f9aa1d

I agree that many altcoins are already remarkably attractive (strongly undervalued).

Why do you think Bitcoin is undervalued at the moment ?