BitMex exchange going down - A sign of a bull run coming?

[Fivestar4everMVP]

So BitMex exchange three days ago ANNOUNCED that they will be shutting down their operations in the crypto space by September this year, the exchange was founded in 2014 and has the popular Arthur Hayes as it's Co-founder.

Looking at the chart below...


It shows a pattern where after a popular exchange goes down during a bear season like we currently are, few months after, a bull run comes that take the price of bitcoin to a new all time high..

Examples - :
- MT-GOX shut down in 2014, the price of bitcoin dropped from $919 to end of the year low of $321, and the bear continued In 2015 & 2016..
- BTC-e shut down in 2017, shortly after this, the bull run began that took the price of bitcoin to all time high of $19,783.
- Before the 2020/2021 bull run began where the price of bitcoin reached an all time high of $68,789, list of exchanges that went down -
      | Dx.Exchange
      | Liqui
      | Virwox
      | Altsbit
      | Neraex
    etc.
-FTX shut down in 2022, following this event, some exchanges, lending protocols also went down with it before the 2024-2025 bull run where the price of bitcoin reached an all time high of $126,198.
A list following FTX collapse are -
      | Alameda research
      | Blockfi
      | Genesis global
      | Celsius Network
      | Voyager digital
    etc.
- And while we look forward to the next coming bull run -
    - BitMart is shutting down
    - BitMex has announced they are shutting down
    - AscendEx has already ceased operations.
And which is next to follow?

So what do you think about this pattern? is this something that must continue in every bear season leading to the markets bull season or are all this closures a mere coincidence?

And predict, which trading platform do you think will possibly go down next?

[GiorgoArm15]

There are a lot of projects that have been shut down

Dango
BitMEX
Bitmart
ODOS
Movement Labs
Secondfi
Xenea
AscendEX
Zapper
Ctrl Wallet
Loopring
Polygon zkEVM
Sophon
ionic
Soundness
Swell
Powerloom
Satori
Ventuals
Fishing Frenzy
Pudgy Party
Botanix
Hyli
Radiant Capital
Zero Network
Everclear
Syndicate
Fantasy
Legend
Phi
Carrot
Genso Online
Luckio
Beets
Mint Blockchain
Pixel Heroes Adventure
XOCIETY
77-Bit
Opulous
Foundation
Megaphone
Seamless Protocol
Intergaze
Dmail
Leap Wallet
Fey
Magic Eden Wallet
Pixiland
Yupp AI
Bit.com
MilkyWay
Tally
Blockfills
Genome Protocol
Datahaven
Angle Protocol
Step Finance
Remora Markets
Parsec
Zerolandxyz
Polynomial
NGS
Entropy
Slingshot

[Barikui1]

This is very sad and regrettable, but that's part of life

So what do you think about this pattern? is this something that must continue in every bear season leading to the markets bull season or are all this closures a mere coincidence?

No, it's not a coincidence bro, all these entails that these exchange are not as strong financially as they looks like. In the bear season, almost all the crypto assets these exchange are holding will always depreciate in value due to the market conditions, so at that point, it's only those with strong finance will be able to maintain operations without interruption.

And in addition to that, the volume of users will likely depreciate as well due to the depreciating conditions of the market, and as we all knows, the bear market entails less money or engagement in the market, so it's only those that have a strong financial backing that will survive such a period.

And predict, which trading platform do you think will possibly go down next?

I just don't know because things might seems very good from the outside, but it's only when you have a deeper knowledge on the financial state of an exchange, you can determine if they can stay long in the space or not.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

There are a lot of projects that have been shut down
~snip

Well well, this is not just about any project dude. If we talk about projects, I bet there are even millions that died even before they were launched, and a hundreds of thousands that died not long after their launch, and tens of thousands that died after hitting the market and the list goes on and on..

This is mainly about trading platforms, in other words - exchanges..

[PostQuantumBTC]

Well well, this is not just about any project dude. If we talk about projects, I bet there are even millions that died even before they were launched, and a hundreds of thousands that died not long after their launch, and tens of thousands that died after hitting the market and the list goes on and on..

This is mainly about trading platforms, in other words - exchanges..

Yes, it is not just about any projects, but some crypto projects need to also be considered. Let us leave that one aside, Bitmart is a crypto exchange like BitMex. The other one that was closed down that people talked about on this forum is BitMax which is now called AscendEX is also shutting down.

I do not know if the bear market is over but I keep accumulating more bitcoin. We can think the bear market is over and something happened again that may cause the price to fall a little again.

[Die_empty]

There is a difference between gradual winding up and sudden shutting down. In the case of MtGox, FTX, and others, withdrawals were suddenly suspended because of loss of assets or financial mismanagement. This kind of situation will cause panic and affect investors' confidence, which would affect the price of Bitcoin.

In the case of BitMart and BitMex, they have not suspended withdrawals and have given users a time frame to withdraw their assets from the exchange. I don't think their winding up will affect the price of Bitcoin.

So what do you think about this pattern? is this something that must continue in every bear season leading to the markets bull season or are all this closures a mere coincidence?

And predict, which trading platform do you think will possibly go down next?

The bear market affects most Bitcoin service providers such as miners, exchanges, and others. That is why it is essential to build financial backups before the bear season.

It would take an insider to predict the next exchange that will go down. This is because there might not be signs that they are going through some challenges. They will always operate like they are healthy and strong.

[slaman29]

You do realize that 'shutting down' in the first 2 cycle examples you gave is very different from BitMex this time right?

Mt GOX BtcE and FTX were forced to shut down, in the middle of scandals and lost funds and legal actions from all their customers.

That was a panic inducing state like a bank run.

BitMEX announcing they're no longer gonna be doing business won't cause panic, it might definitely cause worry and selling pressure. So maybe some domino effect too.

We need another big exchange losing funds or scam. Then we got a mass hysteria coming.

[coinrifft]

So what do you think about this pattern? is this something that must continue in every bear season leading to the markets bull season or are all this closures a mere coincidence?

We have to look from the outside, during the bear market, exchanges might have to compete with less traders. And so if you are not one of those top exchanges, sooner or later it will dry up and causing your exchanges not to make money that they used to. That's why sooner or later they will have to shutdown their operations to cut losses.

And predict, which trading platform do you think will possibly go down next?

Very hard to say, this is the second exchange to stop operation. BitMart also announces that they are. So maybe  those 2nd to 3rd exchanges are mostly going to be hit.

[retaur]

I think I'm more surprised they're still going. Since binance, coinbase and a few other bigger exchanges started offering futures and margin I think it's kinda a signal the end was in sight for them. They didn't seem to be that well liked in the crypto space either.

[bitbollo]

Correlation doesn't imply causation. 
There are just few operators (big operators) that can be profitable/continue to survive - even struggling for it... Most of them are just destinated to collapse and to become obsolete.  
I would just say this... also because there are many "signs" that can lead to a certain market value.  Moreover, the price in FIAT could go up in a long time/endless timeframe.
I don't know what to expect as consequence but losing a part of EU could make a part for this shutdown, definetely other operators would follow...

[bitLeap]

Well well, this is not just about any project dude. If we talk about projects, I bet there are even millions that died even before they were launched, and a hundreds of thousands that died not long after their launch, and tens of thousands that died after hitting the market and the list goes on and on..

This is mainly about trading platforms, in other words - exchanges..

Yes, it is not just about any projects, but some crypto projects need to also be considered. Let us leave that one aside, Bitmart is a crypto exchange like BitMex. The other one that was closed down that people talked about on this forum is BitMax which is now called AscendEX is also shutting down.

I do not know if the bear market is over but I keep accumulating more bitcoin. We can think the bear market is over and something happened again that may cause the price to fall a little again.

The exchanges currently facing bankruptcy are those that lack the MICA license a permit that grants the freedom to operate within the European region. This July has been quite shocking, as such bankruptcies could affect any global market, including even the top 10 exchanges. Competition is intensifying, and regulations are becoming stricter. Entering the European market is no easy feat the process is complex due to the required conditions and costs running into the millions of dollars.

[Doan9269]

Well well, this is not just about any project dude. If we talk about projects, I bet there are even millions that died even before they were launched, and a hundreds of thousands that died not long after their launch, and tens of thousands that died after hitting the market and the list goes on and on..

This is mainly about trading platforms, in other words - exchanges..

Yes, it is not just about any projects, but some crypto projects need to also be considered. Let us leave that one aside, Bitmart is a crypto exchange like BitMex. The other one that was closed down that people talked about on this forum is BitMax which is now called AscendEX is also shutting down.

I do not know if the bear market is over but I keep accumulating more bitcoin. We can think the bear market is over and something happened again that may cause the price to fall a little again.

I cannot also establish a fact based on the recent incidence for this crypto exchange to be shutting down all because we are sensing for bullrun upcoming, there are many internal problems that are opening with some of these exchange beyond our view, the only best way to prevent ourselves is to avoid having our assets on centralized platform so that even if something like this happens, we remain unaffected, you can see how about 3 or more crypto exchange having a similar name that could be confusing for you to determine which one you are using and which one is the major target you wanted to use.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Well, all of those exchange collapses or intentional shutdowns by their teams are merely coincidences with Bitcoin's price spikes few months after the crash of the exchange. Whether an exchange shuts down or not does not mean that a bull run is or isn't going to happen, so it doesn't have any influence on Bitcoin's bullish signals.

I think the logic you're trying to imply here is that when some of these exchanges or companies unfortunately crash or intentionally cease operations, it signals a bull run, right? In my opinion, those have merely been coincidences and do not determine Bitcoin's price movements or market cycles.

The collapse of FTX, which happened when I was already involved in Bitcoin, was a result of the misuse of customers' funds. According to the information surrounding the collapse, the founder of FTX secretly used customers' money in an attempt to bail out Alameda Research, a trading firm that was also run by him. So, if the founder had been prudent enough not to use customers' funds to cover Alameda Research's losses, FTX probably would not have gone bankrupt. Even if it had not collapsed, Bitcoin's price would still have reached whatever level the market was going to take it to.

Based on my research, BitMEX is closing due to competition-related issues and its very low market share of less than 0.01%. Bear market conditions often affect some of these companies and can be one of the reasons they decide to shut down. But even if they had not closed, Bitcoin would still experience a bull run when the time comes.

I cannot accurately predict which exchange or trading company will shut down next. Some close without any prior intention to do so, while circumstances such as severe technical failures can force others to cease operations.

[Ruttoshi]

I doubt that the bull run will kick in few months because these two exchanges are shutting down due to their own personal reasons. Past records doesn't guarantee future performance. I believe that the bear market will soon come to an end but it doesn't mean that the price of bitcoin will shoot up faster and create a new ATH this year or next.

The price will move slowly as usual up, down and sideways till the halving will come. We might not see a new ATH before the halving in this circle. I am patiently waiting to see how this circle plays out. Fingers crossed.

[EL MOHA]

We have to look from the outside, during the bear market, exchanges might have to compete with less traders. And so if you are not one of those top exchanges, sooner or later it will dry up and causing your exchanges not to make money that they used to. That's why sooner or later they will have to shutdown their operations to cut losses.

Decision to close down the exchange isn’t something most of these exchanges actually do take easily so a glance of bearish sentiment cannot force them to close down because they are definitely going to have prepared themselve for periods like this, until the whole story as to the genuine reason why they wants to shut down comes out we shouldn’t have assumptions.

Speaking about been one of the top exchanges I think one can actually agree that BitMex was on its way down due to how high it has fell over the ranking of top exchanges, Bitmex wasn’t a small exchange to start with they were one the early exchanges that were offering leverage or future trading options then, if they had actually upgraded gradually from then till now they wouldn’t be regressing but they didn’t which made most of the new exchanges actually gaining grounds in same trading options. So it was actually a long term of possible failure

Will this bring an end to the bearish market? I say NO the scenario around this closure is even not chaotic to cause any market disruption like the past exchanges crisis.

[AVE5]

So BitMex exchange three days ago ANNOUNCED that they will be shutting down their operations in the crypto space by September this year, the exchange was founded in 2014 and has the popular Arthur Hayes as it's Co-founder.

Looking at the chart below...

                                         
It shows a pattern where after a popular exchange goes down during a bear season like we currently are, few months after, a bull run comes that take the price of bitcoin to a new all time high..

Oh really? We've also come a long way to believe prediction bitcoin price right with the logics of past experiences would always be coincidence.
Thus has been why we must not put too confidence on our trading but treats it as much we handles it with the state we handles our bets.
If you have to logically consider this news about the exchange or any high influenced exchange going down, it's usually that it drivesFomo that can devastate enthusiasts emotions. So there could be discouraging to attract more investors.
Of course there's no bull signal in that.

[stadus]

This is not a coincidence. There are actually good and profitable exchanges that eventually lost their value in the market, as not all the the time their financial output are stable and thriving. Season like a bear market end up testing their financial stability, until they can no longer stay on the line and continue their operation. However, most of these exchanges are shutting down not because of a bear market but primarily because of financial stress and business failure.

A sign of bull run coming, maybe yes, maybe no. But I don't see this year leading to a bull run, that's based from my personal assessment.

[Questat]

There has been no real basis that a major exchange is shutting down because a bull run is approaching. BitMex is shutting down because it has already experienced a severe loss, and has no chances to recover especially in this bearish market where everyone is also at the verge of survival.

However, I have no idea as to who will be the next to step out of the market and get rid of the high competition. I bet every market exchange is currently facing some economic hardship, except for those highly trusted and reputable ones that never failed when it comes to buyout attempts and still making its spot despite the intense competition.

[boyptc]

So what do you think about this pattern? is this something that must continue in every bear season leading to the markets bull season or are all this closures a mere coincidence?

Whether it will continue or not, I guess that we've got that expectation that there's a kind of this closure every time a bear market comes. We're starting to see the monopoly in the exchanges and for the others to survive is going to be harder.

It's not a coincidence that these closures have announced during the bear market. Probably their own holdings and assets can't be at par to survive due to the low valuation that they have because of the lower price entirely.

If these are all signs of a bull run is coming? no.

But every bear market will come to its end per cycle, vice versa.

[logfiles]

It's actually the other way round. When exchanges start to shut down, it means they are struggling since the market conditions are not favorable. So it's a sign that we are in a full-blown bear market, and we probably have so more months to go before we can even think about the bull market.

- And while we look forward to the next coming bull run -
    - BitMart is shutting down
    - BitMex has announced they are shutting down
    - AscendEx has already ceased operations.

By the way, BitMart just rebranded to Ascendex sometime back so it's just two exchanges that have shutdown on that list.
Sorry, I misread BitMart and Bitmax