Be careful about Patterns in investing in Bitcoin

[Ahli38]

Hello friends.
There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything. I understand that this is the nature of our psychology, but first of all, patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them. As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence. I'm sorry if these concepts are included in each other, it's just that I've been on the forum recently. And I just want to express my opinion and listen to criticism. So, these big participants in the crypto market will make decisions about trading manipulations by looking at both the chart and the crowd of small cryptans.
And secondly: history rhymes, but it doesn't repeat itself exactly. In last years, based on the news: Saylor warned about the sale for the first time, and the BTC ETF, Trump and his crazy moves... I understand that the crypto market has always changed, even if I don't know the whole history of Bitcoin, but I think the articles are making the biggest headlines right now. And they correspond to reality! I see that many people write about DCA, that it is a salvation for beginners like me. And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

(Source)
Traders are indeed always at risk due to volatility, where it can cause them to lose money while trying to profit from price differences. And for those who use leverage the risk of being quickly liquidated is even higher because prices can reach the margin call level very quickly. These risks are always a consideration for traders when taking positions. As for Bitcoin investors they shouldn’t worry about the speculation circulating. They will simply continue to hold Bitcoin patiently until their expected profit targets are met without worrying about Bitcoin’s short-term price movements. I personally believe that smart money will always take advantage of the halving cycle to profit. And I think this is closely related to Bitcoin’s historical price increases during each cycle. As you can see in the chart above, where Bitcoin’s price has consistently surpassed the levels seen in previous halving cycles.

[Supreme Donvic]

Those who trade now want to make a profit, that is their target and they realize the risks that they will not always make a profit if the price reverse to the other directions. But with the fluctuation of the price, they still hopes they can profit although not much but the point is they are making money from trading. If they know how managing the risks, they don't have to worry with that but they will analyze carefully before they trade. If they don't see the right timing, they will not forcing to trade but delay and will monitoring the price movement. Only with carefully, they will make a profit and if they only watch the 4-year cycles without analyzing, that will makes them difficult to profit.

Trading is very risky, no matter how good you think you are in trading there is every possibility that you are going to lose at some point.
I don't even encourage anyone to go into trading, if you want to actually make profit without lost in Bitcoin you need to go for bitcoin long term investment and not Bitcoin trading.
Analyzing the market is actually impossible because no one actually knows what we happen the next day, so if you are analyzing the market and it is working for you I will say you are just being lucky and you may run out of luck one day.

[hd49728]

Trading is very risky, no matter how good you think you are in trading there is every possibility that you are going to lose at some point.
I don't even encourage anyone to go into trading, if you want to actually make profit without lost in Bitcoin you need to go for bitcoin long term investment and not Bitcoin trading.
Analyzing the market is actually impossible because no one actually knows what we happen the next day, so if you are analyzing the market and it is working for you I will say you are just being lucky and you may run out of luck one day.

This topic is about investing, not about trading, and I am curious why you discuss about trading here.

Investing or trading, the market is only one: Bitcoin market with its own market cycle as well as same market makers. Investors and traders are participating in a same market but they have different stance on the market, what they want to do, purposes to achieve, financial and risk management, as well as their plans for doing investing or trading.

As being sad, the market is the same, the cycle works the same, and with existence of patterns or fractals as important parts of the market, if people as investors can know about these things, they can plan their investment better. Fortunately with investors, by their long term investment plans, if they don't understand too well about the market patterns, fractals, they can still get very good profit by holding.

[YOSHIE]

Be careful about Patterns in investing in Bitcoin

Not even ten Bitcoin halving cycles have occurred, you are already panicking, the cycle pattern that will occur in the future is predicted to occur in 2028, that's only the fifth time, I assess the future cycle pattern will be a classic and unique cycle pattern, maybe that hasn't been thought of, honestly with the Bitcoin supply and halving plus the influence of institutional adoption I don't hesitate to continue investing in Bitcoin.

While new coins are no longer coming into the market and supply shortages and block heights will happen to Bitcoin, I believe it is the best solution to consider for long term investment in Bitcoin, honestly this 4 year cycle pattern is really challenging and unique,you will regret it if you miss it.

[Zackz5000]

Those who trade now want to make a profit, that is their target and they realize the risks that they will not always make a profit if the price reverse to the other directions. But with the fluctuation of the price, they still hopes they can profit although not much but the point is they are making money from trading. If they know how managing the risks, they don't have to worry with that but they will analyze carefully before they trade. If they don't see the right timing, they will not forcing to trade but delay and will monitoring the price movement. Only with carefully, they will make a profit and if they only watch the 4-year cycles without analyzing, that will makes them difficult to profit.

Trading is very risky, no matter how good you think you are in trading there is every possibility that you are going to lose at some point.
I don't even encourage anyone to go into trading, if you want to actually make profit without lost in Bitcoin you need to go for bitcoin long term investment and not Bitcoin trading.
Analyzing the market is actually impossible because no one actually knows what we happen the next day, so if you are analyzing the market and it is working for you I will say you are just being lucky and you may run out of luck one day.

One thing about traders is that they only give testimonies about the profit they have made from trading Bitcoin but they will never list how often they lost money while trading, Bitcoin investment is a risky investment trading Bitcoin even makes it more risky. Bitcoin can't be predicted rightly or know what happens next, if some was able to trade and make profit doesn't mean they understand the market flow they were only very luck as you said the best way to invest in Bitcoin is to accumulate using our discretionary income and hold for 4-10 years or more.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

You don't need to, some of them understand what they are doing as they are shorting the market instead of longing it through future trading and they are making a killing, but the problem is that most newbies think they can replicate what the professionals are doing and that is where they make a mistake. The market always has a pattern and that pattern is why we have the 4-year cycle to look forward to. The pattern must not be identically the same but you can draw inspiration from what happened previously to understand what might likely happen in the future.

The market has changed drastically since we had institutional investors coming in and this guys came in with their large sum of money therefore they definitely are having an influence on how the market reacts so the best idea will be not to listen to whatever they say instead focus on the strategy that have worked for many years which is to DCA and keep hodling.

You aren't going to make any mistake if your strategy is just to DCA as it have been proven to be the best strategy and this isn't just words from people but it is backed by research and record that proves that hodlers are those making the most profit.

[Johnlomape]

Those who trade now want to make a profit, that is their target and they realize the risks that they will not always make a profit if the price reverse to the other directions. But with the fluctuation of the price, they still hopes they can profit although not much but the point is they are making money from trading. If they know how managing the risks, they don't have to worry with that but they will analyze carefully before they trade. If they don't see the right timing, they will not forcing to trade but delay and will monitoring the price movement. Only with carefully, they will make a profit and if they only watch the 4-year cycles without analyzing, that will makes them difficult to profit.

Trading is very risky, no matter how good you think you are in trading there is every possibility that you are going to lose at some point.
I don't even encourage anyone to go into trading, if you want to actually make profit without lost in Bitcoin you need to go for bitcoin long term investment and not Bitcoin trading.
Analyzing the market is actually impossible because no one actually knows what we happen the next day, so if you are analyzing the market and it is working for you I will say you are just being lucky and you may run out of luck one day.

Anyone that want to be trading in the crypto market must understand many things about trading before expecting to make profits from it. Understanding the technical analysis, fundamental analysis and market sentiment will be very helpful to make money from trading. It is better to be a Bitcoin holder when you have the money to buy and hold large amounts of Bitcoin than to go fully into trading with the hope of making money from it. There are so many things that are involved which if you don't know, you will be incurring loses from the market and blaming people around you for being responsible for your bad luck.

[GiftedMAN]

I don't even encourage anyone to go into trading, if you want to actually make profit without lost in Bitcoin you need to go for bitcoin long term investment and not Bitcoin trading.

Some investors will not have the patience to endure for long term investment in Bitcoin because they think it would delay them and keep their money in one place so they will rather prefer it goes for trading were they will see when they are making profit or loss.

For those who think they can make it through trading it won't be a bad idea or they get the experience before going into trading cause it will help them to reduce the losses they would encounter during trading, to those who are comfortable with long term Bitcoin investment it is also important if they invest with spare money so they won't sell at loss during the dip.

[tabas]

That's because if they're dedicated traders, regardless of the situation of the market then they'll continue to trade. I am confident of what I am doing, I'm DCAing and avoiding mostly to trade. But your thread seems to bring scare to the people, while it's a good reminder that people should be careful with patterns. However, based on history it's always being followed but it could change any moment. In summary of it, just invest always what you can afford to lose whether you DCA or day trade.

Professional traders do not trade simply following the patterns, but they trade because they have their own means to stay profitable despite of a very unfavorable market. Same goes for investors who never stop from buying and hodling despite of the market's unpredictable condition.

Reality is, not all traders have the same trading views, patterns and strategies. Although they all want to hit the same goal, to trade and be in profits, but there are actually traders who are excellent in in their trading patterns and analysis. Following the 4-year cycle pattern may not be reliable enough, but for some traders they still make it work undoubtedly.

And despite that they can be excellent into those means, the time for not being profitable can also come to them. There are several factors why some are profitable and the majority is not. It also depends on the timing on when they have bought for what they're trading and the same goes for the investors. That's why others are quitting and stopping because they didn't have the advantage to enter when it was so cheap. But that day is here, it's considered cheap as we go through with this bearish turn of the market and yet others are so scared about this cycle which is a usual pattern that they need to know.

[savetheFORUM]

Trading is very risky, no matter how good you think you are in trading there is every possibility that you are going to lose at some point.
I don't even encourage anyone to go into trading, if you want to actually make profit without lost in Bitcoin you need to go for bitcoin long term investment and not Bitcoin trading.
Analyzing the market is actually impossible because no one actually knows what we happen the next day, so if you are analyzing the market and it is working for you I will say you are just being lucky and you may run out of luck one day.

I don't completely agree with you on this point. It is true that trading is risky and obviously riskier than making investments because when you are trading, you have to be careful with all the short-term ups and downs of the market and then also make good use of them so that you can get profit, but you can't say that no matter how good someone is, they are eventually going to lose. You see, losses are inevitable, and you can't expect a trader to never lose any money at all, but what matters is the overall outcome of what you are doing. If you are constantly losing and your net outcome is in negative, then you are at a loss, but if your net outcome is in positive, even if you are losing sometimes, then it is working out for you.

There are so many traders in this market who are doing it full-time, which means that they have trading as their only source of income, and they are successfully making good money from it, and that's because they know what they are doing, and they prepared for it before they started. Someone who thinks they can conquer the market right after they enter it then they are wrong, you have to dedicate time and efforts to it, and then you can actually make something out of it.

Investments are no doubt a great way to get some profits, but trading is also not bad if it's done with knowledge and understanding.

[yixichloro2xx]

I don't even encourage anyone to go into trading, if you want to actually make profit without lost in Bitcoin you need to go for bitcoin long term investment and not Bitcoin trading.

Some investors will not have the patience to endure for long term investment in Bitcoin because they think it would delay them and keep their money in one place so they will rather prefer it goes for trading were they will see when they are making profit or loss.

For those who think they can make it through trading it won't be a bad idea or they get the experience before going into trading cause it will help them to reduce the losses they would encounter during trading, to those who are comfortable with long term Bitcoin investment it is also important if they invest with spare money so they won't sell at loss during the dip.

No matter how good your strategy is, there's no way your wins can be higher than losses in trading.  Trading is not something that one can just go into thinking that they can get some fast cash in it.  Someone needs to have genuine knowledge and understanding on what they are doing before trading. We all know why people often feel that can become rich through trading, which is due to the wrong info they consumed. Traders flaunting flashy lifestyles on YouTube or tiktok and convince people  to trade in order to become wealthy (been there before  ). My point is trading requires knowledge, patience and good mindset, before becomes really profitable in trading, it still takes time and energy of analysing chart. Bitcoin investing is more safer and less risky ( only if investors plans his finances well).

[AmoreJaz]

I don't even encourage anyone to go into trading, if you want to actually make profit without lost in Bitcoin you need to go for bitcoin long term investment and not Bitcoin trading.

Some investors will not have the patience to endure for long term investment in Bitcoin because they think it would delay them and keep their money in one place so they will rather prefer it goes for trading were they will see when they are making profit or loss.

For those who think they can make it through trading it won't be a bad idea or they get the experience before going into trading cause it will help them to reduce the losses they would encounter during trading, to those who are comfortable with long term Bitcoin investment it is also important if they invest with spare money so they won't sell at loss during the dip.

This decision depends on the person and how well he knows this market. The time and patience are also needed to really make it in the market. We can say, you need your dedication and interest to really get profit from this investment.

[As-Soon-As]

Anyone that want to be trading in the crypto market must understand many things about trading before expecting to make profits from it. Understanding the technical analysis, fundamental analysis and market sentiment will be very helpful to make money from trading.

Trading is very risky, so it is best to refrain from trading. Even experienced traders cannot always earn money from the market, because sometimes the market goes beyond the control of traders, so there is a high possibility of losses. Market research is most needed in trading, whereas in holding you have a lot of savings and do not have to face so much market research and risk.
The risk in trading is very high and the risk of holding is much lower, so holding is the best option than trading. The investor will have a higher chance of profit.

It is better to be a Bitcoin holder when you have the money to buy and hold large amounts of
Bitcoin than to go fully into trading with the hope of making money from it. There are so many things that are involved which if you don't know, you will be incurring loses from the market and blaming people around you for being responsible for your bad luck.

See, a new person cannot earn money as soon as he enters trading, because it will take him a few months to understand the market situation and he may not be experienced. But if a new person follows the strategy and is associated with Bitcoin holding, then that person can take the opportunity to profit and succeed with little risk.
Only a person with little education can participate in Bitcoin holding and he can be successful using little money.
As a result, the opportunity to buy Bitcoin repeatedly in Bitcoin holding can be taken, where each person can succeed through his own risk, so Bitcoin holding is most important.

[Natalim]

You wouldn't mind the patterns anyway if you stick with DCA and continue to accumulate bitcoin. This 4-year cycle is constant, they will always be present in the market no matter what. This can be your guide, but they will never guarantee to secure you profits. So I don't see the essence of being careful with them, but in order for you to be profitable, you have to stick with your strategy whatever that works in every market cycle. DCA could be the perfect choice.

But when it comes to trading, at least you should know when is the best time to trade and when to take a break. However, if you're a dedicated trader, you must have your own means how to stay profitable despite an unfavorable and unprofitable market.

[Orpichukwu]

This decision depends on the person and how well he knows this market. The time and patience are also needed to really make it in the market. We can say, you need your dedication and interest to really get profit from this investment.

And this is applicable to all types of investment and not just bitcoin; the investor always needs to make decisions based on what they want and also based on their worth. Someone who is loaded with funds doesn't need to think about trading; they will prefer to invest their money and allow it to appreciate over time without minding how the market is changing as long as the asset is secured and can recover from any form of loss in the future; they are okay with it.

[famososMuertos]

There isn't really a single, predetermined course of action for each individual, even if it seems linear. There are always nuances that differentiate each decision.

And the patterns... Those who don't follow them are simply naturally inclined to do so; it's up to each person to skew the information.