Be careful about Patterns in investing in Bitcoin

[Questat]

The four-year cycle pattern had been in there for several cycles.  History repeats itself, the same way the four year pattern repeating itself every halving.  But, it is also logical to say that this pattern can cease to exist because there is no permanent in this world.

You are right that whales and market makers mostly influence the trading market, but if we somehow notice their actions and interpret them the right way, we can ride with their decisions and cash out with huge profit.  

People have no other way to invest or trade but to follow the 4-year cycle pattern because it has been long established even before we enter bitcoin, but what we need to avoid is following it blindly. But let's be realistic, although its actually a great help for us especially for new traders and investors but as long as we know the supply, market psychology and macro, then we're safe.

Relying on the market patterns alone is also somewhat risky because from time to time, the market conditions change and that high uncertainty becomes more visible. Also, not all the time history will repeat itself, what we see like the performances in the past years may not guarantee to happen again, so always be cautious and logical when one decides to follow the patterns.

[freedomgo]

Patterns are good, and will be sustainable following it if only market conditions do not change rapidly. But based on how the market performs these days, following the four-year cycle is no longer reliable nor profitable in the long run. A lot of global news and events affect more the bitcoin price than those old patterns in the market. I don't see any wrong following them, but if you solely rely on them, you can't expect to be the most profitable with your investments or trades. However, following both may be reliable enough.

[Darker45]

Actually, not everyone sees the same pattern. Not everyone agrees on the interpretation of the patterns. Not everyone assigns the same weight on the patterns found. Not to mention that there could be many patterns found within an hourly, weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, and other timeframes. Worse, they may not complement each other.

And in addition to the cup and handle, head and shoulder, triangles, and whatever other patterns there may be, there's also the fact that fundamentals are equally important to take into consideration.

At the end of the day, you better avoid playing with the movements of the price if you don't want to look like 65 at your 30s.

[TheUltraElite]

For those who have been observing the market for the last 10years, I can assure on thing, in the long run bitcoin is going upwards only when compared to its fiat price.

We tend to look for patterns not because we feel we are able to decode something but because others like it too and hence we share it on social media and it gets followed. The truth remains same, people go fomo and inflate the price buying too much or people go nuts and deflate the price too much.

From a distance you can profit from these movements without thinking too much, you buy when the price drops and you sell when the price peaks.

[BlackBoss_]

For those who have been observing the market for the last 10years, I can assure on thing, in the long run bitcoin is going upwards only when compared to its fiat price.

They are opposite with each other by inflation models: fiat currencies are all inflation, only more inflation or less. Bitcoin is deflationary and it is one of (not only) reasons that make Bitcoin attraction for people and turn them to Bitcoin investors and holders.

The two following charts show purchasing powers of the US dollar and satoshi (we can consider it as a represent of Bitcoin too).
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-the-declining-purchasing-power-of-the-u-s-dollar/
https://charts.bitbo.io/satoshi-per-dollar/

We tend to look for patterns not because we feel we are able to decode something but because others like it too and hence we share it on social media and it gets followed. The truth remains same, people go fomo and inflate the price buying too much or people go nuts and deflate the price too much.

From a distance you can profit from these movements without thinking too much, you buy when the price drops and you sell when the price peaks.

The market has to main components: capital and emotion (or wider scale as psychology) and when talking about patterns, we will need to mention about both of them: Bitcoin market cycle, and psychology cycle of the market.

Usually people only try to find the market cycle, patterns in price but forget about psychological cycles.
https://priceactionninja.com/wall-street-cheat-sheet-the-psychology-of-market-cycles/

[Bit-Mj1014]

Hello friends.
There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything. I understand that this is the nature of our psychology, but first of all, patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them. As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence. I'm sorry if these concepts are included in each other, it's just that I've been on the forum recently. And I just want to express my opinion and listen to criticism. So, these big participants in the crypto market will make decisions about trading manipulations by looking at both the chart and the crowd of small cryptans.
And secondly: history rhymes, but it doesn't repeat itself exactly. In last years, based on the news: Saylor warned about the sale for the first time, and the BTC ETF, Trump and his crazy moves... I understand that the crypto market has always changed, even if I don't know the whole history of Bitcoin, but I think the articles are making the biggest headlines right now. And they correspond to reality! I see that many people write about DCA, that it is a salvation for beginners like me. And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

It’s a great reality check. It’s so easy to get caught up looking at charts and trying to find patterns, but like you said, history doesn't just repeat itself perfectly.
The psychological trap of trying to time everything ruins a lot of people. For beginners, trying to trade the daily noise in this raging sea is just a recipe for stress. Sticking to a simple plan and not trying to outsmart the market makers is definitely the smarter move.

[Livingleged]

Hello friends.
There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything. I understand that this is the nature of our psychology, but first of all, patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them.

Not so true that patterns are dangerous, in fact identifying a pattern and understanding it while taking advantage of its consistency is the cheat code to success in a system like bitcoin and its investment. don’t let anyone deceive you patterns never fails.

As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence. I'm sorry if these concepts are included in each other, it's just that I've been on the forum recently. And I just want to express my opinion and listen to criticism. So, these big participants in the crypto market will make decisions about trading manipulations by looking at both the chart and the crowd of small cryptans.

Of course everyone should have the right to air out their opinion, and that why it’s called a forum for discussion. However, It’s not like the whale actually have the most influence but I think it’s the reactions of millions toward a whales action Which most time causes a lot of panic just like what happened recently with the strategy selling part of their holdings.

I see that many people write about DCA, that it is a salvation for beginners like me. And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

The DCA isn’t attributed to trading actually, it’s dollars cost averaging used often when accumulating bitcoin. This is like averaging your income and accumulating bitcoin gradually with a fix amount of money at regular time intervals, can be weekly monthly or daily. Depending on how you average it and your income flow.

[tabas]

IMHO this thread belongs to the Trading Discussion section.

And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

That's because if they're dedicated traders, regardless of the situation of the market then they'll continue to trade. I am confident of what I am doing, I'm DCAing and avoiding mostly to trade. But your thread seems to bring scare to the people, while it's a good reminder that people should be careful with patterns. However, based on history it's always being followed but it could change any moment. In summary of it, just invest always what you can afford to lose whether you DCA or day trade.

[Rustam Meraj]

It is new view from new poster. 4-year cycle trend has become unhelpful, all the small traders are attempting to trade around the same halving time, which gives the big investors free run to get ahead of and wipe out them. This cycle is indeed different in its nature. Demand pattern was changed forever by spot ETFs. Buying pressure from Saylor is new factor in previous cycles. Trump crypto position adding political side is another. To put this in chart pattern based on 2017 data is hopeful to say the least. When trading strategies fail, DCA takes out the guesswork of any of this.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

That's because if they're dedicated traders, regardless of the situation of the market then they'll continue to trade. I am confident of what I am doing, I'm DCAing and avoiding mostly to trade. But your thread seems to bring scare to the people, while it's a good reminder that people should be careful with patterns. However, based on history it's always being followed but it could change any moment. In summary of it, just invest always what you can afford to lose whether you DCA or day trade.

Some "big" threads about Bitcoin investment, buy sell, DCA, and HODL and there are lot of posts there to read while with repeated posts about nothing new, I no longer are interested in joining such discussions.
Does the DCA strategy inspire newbies to invest?
Buy the DIP, and HODL!
Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?

It is new view from new poster. 4-year cycle trend has become unhelpful, all the small traders are attempting to trade around the same halving time, which gives the big investors free run to get ahead of and wipe out them. This cycle is indeed different in its nature. Demand pattern was changed forever by spot ETFs.

The market still moves with its cycle but problems with most people in this market is they only want to focus on one market cycle, they want to find the bottom, the ATH, timing the market and it's not how investment is. It's also impossible to do that in the market even you know very well about the 4-year market cycle because each cycle is unique and different than past ones. They can have similar patterns but cycle length, times of bottom, all time high and between bottom to ATH can be different. These differences are enough to make people failed with their speculations especially if they use leverages.

Buying pressure from Saylor is new factor in previous cycles

Saylor already bought bitcoin one market cycle ago, not only in this market cycle and they have been in this market for two market cycles so far. If there is anything new from Strategy in this cycle is their over risk escalation and their bitcoin selling as well as possible selling in the future.

[maydna]

Those who trade now want to make a profit, that is their target and they realize the risks that they will not always make a profit if the price reverse to the other directions. But with the fluctuation of the price, they still hopes they can profit although not much but the point is they are making money from trading. If they know how managing the risks, they don't have to worry with that but they will analyze carefully before they trade. If they don't see the right timing, they will not forcing to trade but delay and will monitoring the price movement. Only with carefully, they will make a profit and if they only watch the 4-year cycles without analyzing, that will makes them difficult to profit.

[AmaGold70]

It is true that history can change sometimes, and even in the case of bitcoin, I think no one is giving any guarantee that the 4 years bitcoin cycle will continue. But for investors who have believed in this 4 years bitcoin cycle, they should not be discouraged, and they have to believe it for now because the pattern has not really changed right from when bitcoin was created, and that is the more reason investors so much believe in it.
I would also say that every investment has a system, it won't be wise for bitcoin investors to take away from their mind the period of time when Bitcoin price is likely to turn bullish because having such taught can make reward on the long run very uncertain for investors.

[uneng]

But there is no event in the crypto world that repeats all the time, so I want to assume that the more often a pattern repeats, the less likely it is to repeat itself next time.

The halving event and its positive impact over Bitcoin price has been happening over and over again. And it's likely to happen again in 2028.

The only difference is that each new cycle Bitcoin price doesn't increase so much like in the previous one. Profit margin is becoming lower, but there is still potential for very decent profit rates, anyway.

I guess it's not just a pattern out of nowhere, it's not a superstition or coincidence, but a natural consequence of having less coins entering the market for each new block mined.

[puloweh555]

Patterns are good, and will be sustainable following it if only market conditions do not change rapidly. But based on how the market performs these days, following the four-year cycle is no longer reliable nor profitable in the long run. A lot of global news and events affect more the bitcoin price than those old patterns in the market. I don't see any wrong following them, but if you solely rely on them, you can't expect to be the most profitable with your investments or trades. However, following both may be reliable enough.

True. The 4-year pattern is historically very strong. But as more people know this pattern, its effect can weaken or change shape. Moreover, market makers and whales do see this and often exploit mass expectations, so sometimes the pattern won't exactly match. My point is, we should use the cycle as a rough reference, not a definitive forecast. Risk management is far more important than trying to perfectly time the market based on easily readable patterns. We must still be wary of overly neat pattern narratives so we can avoid situations where the pattern we expect doesn't match.

The 4-year cycle still provides a useful frame of reference, but shouldn't be the primary factor, as many global macro factors, such as Fed interest rates, regulations, and geopolitics also play a larger role. The key is to combine the cycle with current macro analysis as this is far more reliable. Prioritize risk management over simply following patterns.

[aoluain]

Well when it comes to trading and traders there are definitely the experienced ones who look for
patterns because that can give an indication as to what way the market is likely to move. This is not
a new trait, it gas been going on since forever even in the traditional markets.

The 4 year cycle is a pattern which has held up for every halving event so far and thats not a guarantee
that it will remain so for the next.

Patterns are not guaranteed but as I said as they form they 'can be' a future indicator for the markets.

Maybe it's better to invest and not look at the chart at all...

So if you are not trading or exchanging coins or even going to sell in the short term or
imminently why would you care what the market does or what patterns are forming or not?
Its also helpful to separate the market from Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the constant, the Bitcoin reward gets set every 4 years and the market reacts
minute by minute to human emotion.

Personally I check the market about 3 times per month in order to participate in the sentiment
polls on the speculation board!

[SeriouslyGiveaway]

So if you are not trading or exchanging coins or even going to sell in the short term or
imminently why would you care what the market does or what patterns are forming or not?
Its also helpful to separate the market from Bitcoin.

Having a market, a lively one with high trading volume, is very important for Bitcoin. It's part of things make up Bitcoin value. Bitcoin and Bitcoin market need each other, of course together with other things, to make Bitcoin strength, attraction and adoption growth with time.

Bitcoin is the constant, the Bitcoin reward gets set every 4 years and the market reacts
minute by minute to human emotion.

Personally I check the market about 3 times per month in order to participate in the sentiment
polls on the speculation board!

I agree because investors and traders have very different views about Bitcoin future as well as Bitcoin market. Investment is safer and more easily than trading while with investors, they will need to spend less time for watching the Bitcoin market. There will be less time consumed and less stress, challenge for investors than what traders have to face with in a same Bitcoin market.

[Odusko]

Hello friends.
There are a lot of discussions about 4-year cycles right now, and I'm shocked at how the community at X, as well as analysts from various online publications, are trying to find patterns in everything. I understand that this is the nature of our psychology, but first of all, patterns are dangerous because everyone sees them. As far as I understand from the posts I've read here on the forum, whales and market makers have the most influence. I'm sorry if these concepts are included in each other, it's just that I've been on the forum recently. And I just want to express my opinion and listen to criticism. So, these big participants in the crypto market will make decisions about trading manipulations by looking at both the chart and the crowd of small cryptans.
And secondly: history rhymes, but it doesn't repeat itself exactly. In last years, based on the news: Saylor warned about the sale for the first time, and the BTC ETF, Trump and his crazy moves... I understand that the crypto market has always changed, even if I don't know the whole history of Bitcoin, but I think the articles are making the biggest headlines right now. And they correspond to reality! I see that many people write about DCA, that it is a salvation for beginners like me. And at the moment, I don't understand the traders who are trying to trade now. It seems to me that the bitcoin market is a raging sea that will pull down any risky guy.

The problem with some trader's and investors is that, they treat bitcoin 4 years cycle as static outcomes to guarantee profits something like a bitcoin low like bitcoin halving cycles which is included as law but bitcoin 4 years market cycles is just a historical trend that could either come through or go the opposite as long as bitcoin value/price movement is concerned.
History and patterns in bitcoin need to be closely watch and studied as far as analysis is concerned both for traders long term investors or those buying bitcoin using DCA method.