Outrights 26/27 season for reference

[KTChampions]

I'd like to collect here the outrights that caught my eye due to their perceived value, or that simply seemed odd to me. I'll check the results at the end of the season. Feel free to add your own suggestions.

Premier League - Top 6

Arsenal - 1.05

City - 1.14

Liverpool - 1.20

Manchester United - 1.25

Chelsea - 1.33

This is the Premier League, anything can happen, but even in a disastrous season, reigning champions Liverpool couldn't fall out of the top 5. I think the top three spots are free and reliable boosts.

Top Scorers

Haaland - 1.66

Isak (rat) - 10.00

Thiago - 11.00

Watkins - 15.00

Haaland hasn't finished as a top scorer just once since joining the Premier League. Over the last 10 years, besides Haaland, only Salah (twice) and Kane (twice) have shown efficiency that is absolutely average for Haaland (around 30 goals). Easy bet on Haaland.

Bundesliga - Winner

Bayern Munich - 1.16

No comments 

Ligue 1 - Winner

PSG - 1.16

No comments 

LaLiga - Top 4

Barcelona - 1.02

Real Madrid - 1.03

Atlético Madrid - 1.25

The last time Atletico were outside the top four was in 2011, 15 years ago.

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661
If you risk a little more, for example Liverpool, Haaland, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get: 1.20 * 1.66 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 3.35

I'll add new options later when the markets for the top 4/top 6 Serie A and Bundesliga appear.

[Oshosondy]

I can not bet on outright for English premier league. The league is highly competitive and it does not worth it.

Also I will prefer not to bet on it on La Liga because of the competition between Real Madrid and Barcelona. I can only go for Bayern Munich and PSG.

But I am not going for outright, I prefer to bet on Nirmal matches. Instead of going for outright, I will save my money and earn 20% APR interest.

But I can always use small amount of money to bet weekly.

[buwaytress]

We probably don't differ in confidence at all and I'm always putting some small amount of money on outrights (to soothe my wounded heart at the end of the season).

I really do like the outright acca for Top 4 finishes. Haaland seems like a steal for me, but I personally avoid individual performances once a huge managerial change happens (as I missed out on Salah 2 seasons ago, I say this).

I can not bet on outright for English premier league. The league is highly competitive and it does not worth it.

Also I will prefer not to bet on it on La Liga because of the competition between Real Madrid and Barcelona. I can only go for Bayern Munich and PSG.

But I am not going for outright, I prefer to bet on Nirmal matches. Instead of going for outright, I will save my money and earn 20% APR interest.

But I can always use small amount of money to bet weekly.

What... is the point of this post? haha. We're on the gambling sub, and on a thread talking about outrights. So you're a guy who saves your money (not crypto) for interest, and maybe a small amount of money to bet weekly on "normal" games?

[Oshosondy]

What... is the point of this post? haha. We're on the gambling sub, and on a thread talking about outrights. So you're a guy who saves your money (not crypto) for interest, and maybe a small amount of money to bet weekly on "normal" games?

Yes, I have some money in fiat but not all and not much. Most of my money is in bitcoin, but sometimes after bear market some are in altcoins for some period of time which I will later convert to stable coins, fiat and bitcoin. It is not an easy process that I can easily explain.

What I mean is that the odds for outright is small and not worth it, the time is a year if you want to go for it now or at the beginning of the season, while I can have 20% APR interest on my savings which is 1.2 guaranteed odd.

It is outright, I may not want to bet on it, unlike those weekly matches that I use small amount of money to bet on. I go for the weekly matches instead and it is that simple.

[yudi09]

The winners of these two leagues—the English Premier League and La Liga—aren’t a foregone conclusion, and I can understand why, since competition in both is extremely fierce. In the English Premier League in particular, it’s not easy to predict the winner, but when it comes to picking the top six teams, all possibilities remain open at this point.

I’ll mention one team that has a chance to finish the season in the top 5, and that’s Tottenham Hotspur, based on how seriously they’re pursuing new players right now.
Meanwhile, in La Liga, only the three teams already mentioned are expected to dominate the league throughout the season.

[KTChampions]

We probably don't differ in confidence at all and I'm always putting some small amount of money on outrights (to soothe my wounded heart at the end of the season).

I really do like the outright acca for Top 4 finishes. Haaland seems like a steal for me, but I personally avoid individual performances once a huge managerial change happens (as I missed out on Salah 2 seasons ago, I say this).

Only an injury or some force majeure could prevent Haaland from showing his average result (27+ goals, which would ensure first place) after all, City is still under threat of the verdict of that case about 115 violations, but the odds compensate for the risk in my opinion.

~

What... is the point of this post? haha. We're on the gambling sub, and on a thread talking about outrights. So you're a guy who saves your money (not crypto) for interest, and maybe a small amount of money to bet weekly on "normal" games?

I immediately got angry at myself after seeing his post, I forgot to make the thread self-moderated 

~
What I mean is that the odds for outright is small and not worth it, the time is a year if you want to go for it now or at the beginning of the season, while I can have 20% APR interest on my savings which is 1.2 guaranteed odd.

It is outright, I may not want to bet on it, unlike those weekly matches that I use small amount of money to bet on. I go for the weekly matches instead and it is that simple.

Yes, yes, go get a "guaranteed" income in Luna or Celsius (or in dex's that are hacked one after another), just don't clutter the thread, please.

[swogerino]

I'd like to collect here the outrights that caught my eye due to their perceived value, or that simply seemed odd to me. I'll check the results at the end of the season. Feel free to add your own suggestions.

Premier League - Top 6

Arsenal - 1.05

City - 1.14

Liverpool - 1.20

Manchester United - 1.25

Chelsea - 1.33

This is the Premier League, anything can happen, but even in a disastrous season, reigning champions Liverpool couldn't fall out of the top 5. I think the top three spots are free and reliable boosts.

Top Scorers

Haaland - 1.66

Isak (rat) - 10.00

Thiago - 11.00

Watkins - 15.00

Haaland hasn't finished as a top scorer just once since joining the Premier League. Over the last 10 years, besides Haaland, only Salah (twice) and Kane (twice) have shown efficiency that is absolutely average for Haaland (around 30 goals). Easy bet on Haaland.

Bundesliga - Winner

Bayern Munich - 1.16

No comments  

Ligue 1 - Winner

PSG - 1.16

No comments  

LaLiga - Top 4

Barcelona - 1.02

Real Madrid - 1.03

Atlético Madrid - 1.25

The last time Atletico were outside the top four was in 2011, 15 years ago.

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661
If you risk a little more, for example Liverpool, Haaland, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get: 1.20 * 1.66 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 3.35

I'll add new options later when the markets for the top 4/top 6 Serie A and Bundesliga appear.

What can I say except really low odds, even if we combine the winners all of them we get some near 2 odd and we have to wait all the season long before we can win any money. I would prefer more to bet on F1 outcome as anything can happen there between top performers rather than here in soccer. In fact it reminds me of the season when someone won a lot of money when Leicester city won the Premier League some years ago, now that was an awesome odd which I would be definitely interested in and not odds that do not make a difference even if we win them.

[stompix]

I immediately got angry at myself after seeing his post, I forgot to make the thread self-moderated 

Well, well, well....karma strikes  

As for the shitposters, when you quote their posts (I usually skip them automatically), it makes my blood boil. That's why I recommend creating self-moderated threads 

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661
If you risk a little more, for example Liverpool, Haaland, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get: 1.20 * 1.66 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 3.35
I'll add new options later when the markets for the top 4/top 6 Serie A and Bundesliga appear.

Haaland might be risky: an injury and that's it, and you can't predict that.

Unfortunately, he's the money maker there, so you would need to compensate from the other two leagues, and the only bulletproof ones I could see are Dortmund in top 4 which might have the same odds as Bayern winning and in Serie A, god knows who to pick, Inter would be the only safe option, Napoli a maybe, Juventus and Milan a definite no!

[BALIK]

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661
If you risk a little more, for example Liverpool, Haaland, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get: 1.20 * 1.66 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 3.35
I'll add new options later when the markets for the top 4/top 6 Serie A and Bundesliga appear.

Haaland might be risky: an injury and that's it, and you can't predict that.

This is actually the biggest risk of future betting.
Anyone who sees odd 1.60 or 1.70 will initially think that the bet is very safe. However, very few people will realize that the margin of error in these odds is very small. Of course, it is also true that bookmakers still see Haaland as the clear favorite for the Golden Boot. Because his consistency in last few season has been extraordinary.

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661

I also like this type of accumulator more.
However I see another thing, which is correlation. I avoid selection that are too dependent on same league or similar situation.
And I bet on favorite team from different league. And I have seen that outcome of my strategy come out well.
Just increasing combined odds does not win well. If you can't diversify your risk then accumulator won't give you good result.

[MAAManda]

LaLiga - Top 4

Barcelona - 1.02

Real Madrid - 1.03

Atlético Madrid - 1.25

Choosing Barcelona & Real Madrid isn't a good option, it's better to stake the money in crypto token to earn a higher percentage return. Atlético Madrid makes more sense in this regard, as they're consistently a top-tier team in the standings. BTW, you've only shown Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid & Atletico Madrid. I'm curious about some other teams like Real Betis, Real Sociedad, or Villarreal, what are the odds for those teams?

[KTChampions]

~
Unfortunately, he's the money maker there, so you would need to compensate from the other two leagues, and the only bulletproof ones I could see are Dortmund in top 4 which might have the same odds as Bayern winning and in Serie A, god knows who to pick, Inter would be the only safe option, Napoli a maybe, Juventus and Milan a definite no!

Last year Dortmund top 6 was priced as 1.04, probably this year Dortmund top 4 will be priced as 1.1 at best. It's a good choice as a boost for other bets.
As for Serie A, all the teams there are murky. Inter are better than everyone else, but in association with the whole league I don't trust them either 

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661

I also like this type of accumulator more.
However I see another thing, which is correlation. I avoid selection that are too dependent on same league or similar situation.
And I bet on favorite team from different league.

I don't understand what correlation you're talking about between Arsenal, Bayern, PSG and Atletico 

Choosing Barcelona & Real Madrid isn't a good option, it's better to stake the money in crypto token to earn a higher percentage return. Atlético Madrid makes more sense in this regard, as they're consistently a top-tier team in the standings. BTW, you've only shown Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid & Atletico Madrid. I'm curious about some other teams like Real Betis, Real Sociedad, or Villarreal, what are the odds for those teams?

Betis - 3.75

Villarreal - 4.00

Athletic - 4.00

Sociedad - 7.00

I don't list them because they are very random outcomes. The point of this topic is reliable outcomes that require only patience and nothing more.

[CryptoBuds]

But I am not going for outright, I prefer to bet on Nirmal matches. Instead of going for outright, I will save my money and earn 20% APR interest.

But I can always use small amount of money to bet weekly.

I think this comes down to opportunity cost.

I am also not in favor of holding my bankroll for long period of time.
I actually only play outright when I feel market is clearly undervaluing a team or player.
Because while the season-long outright market is somewhat inefficient at beginning, as the season progresses market become much more efficient.
As a result it becomes difficult to find value. So using bankroll on weekly bet makes more sense to me.

Another interesting market I'd actually keep an eye on throughout August is Top 4 race
In every summer you will find one club that start slowly. This could be due to their tactical change or late transfer.
So, you will see market often overemphasize that slow start.
And if the market overreacts after 3-4 round then that's often a much better entry point imo, than betting months in advance

[Alex077]

There are high chance Munich and PSG will win the Bundesliga and Ligue 1. No need to comment on these two, we know these two peasant leagues . But la liga and premier league are fiercely competitive. It is impossible to give a definite prediction about which team will win the title,

I would consider Arsenal as the favorite for the Premier League title. And that is normal. The team has completed a wonderful season. The bonding between the players is also excellent. But in second place I would put Manchester United. The team's performance was stable in the last season with the help of Carrick. On the other hand, I doubt whether City's performance will be stable after Guardiola left.

It is very difficult to make predictions about la liga. Madrid has not won a title for two seasons in a row. The team will be desperate to win the title next season with the help of Mourinho.

[BALIK]

I don't understand what correlation you're talking about between Arsenal, Bayern, PSG and Atletico 

Maybe I didn't explain clearly. I wasn't saying these four outcome are statistically correlated with each other.

What I was trying to say is that it is important to avoid a concentration of risk. If I incorporate all picks from same league then my prediction are susceptible to the same types of uncertainty, including fixture overload, schedule changes, league-related surprise, weather or even my own subjective opinion about the league.

In utilizing selection from different league, I am minimizing those risk rather than concentrating them in one competition. Arsenal winning does not make Bayern more likely to win, yes. These two events are independent of each other. However, my statement is related to the construction. It is not dependent as per statistics. That is why I prefer to use selections from different leagues and competitions.

So perhaps "risk concentration" would have been a better choice of words than correlation.

[BABY SHOES]

Bundesliga - Winner
Ligue 1 - Winner

There's no need to comment, this league has had them for a long time.

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661
If you risk a little more, for example Liverpool, Haaland, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get: 1.20 * 1.66 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 3.35

I would choose the riskier one and that's Haaland being one of his favourites... I mean what if he doesn't score the most goalscorers displaced by the others? But I feel he is still quite OK as a candidate, he has mastered the Premier League field as long as he does not get injured as an obstacle.

[un_rank]

If I take seasons long outright I am always tempted to raise the odds to make it worth the wait. My thinking is that it's better to have a lower chance of winning big after a year or a higher chance of winning less. I expect there will be come surprises in the EPL top six and also top four in Laliga which will have higher odds than the expected outcomes.

Only an injury or some force majeure could prevent Haaland from showing his average result (27+ goals, which would ensure first place) after all, City is still under threat of the verdict of that case about 115 violations, but the odds compensate for the risk in my opinion.

Or if City perform poorly. If they go do lose Rodri just after Pep leaving, it will be a very different team from the one he is used to thriving in. Other strikers will also be settling in better next season and will put up better numbers.

- Jay -

[Agbamoni]

Bayern Munich to win the Bundesliga simple bet.
PSG to win the French Ligue 1 easy bet.
In th La Liga, Barcelona or Real Madrid is going to win the La Liga. I will place my bet on Real Madrid this time.
In the Premier League ( the most competitive league in the world). No certaintity who will win. Could be Manchester City, Arsenal or Liverpool.

[MAAManda]

I don't list them because they are very random outcomes. The point of this topic is reliable outcomes that require only patience and nothing more.

The odds for those teams look good, I’m thinking about the other teams since the outright bet is for the top 4, don't those teams have a good chance of finishing in the top 4?

In the La Liga, Barcelona or Real Madrid is going to win the La Liga. I will place my bet on Real Madrid this time.
In the Premier League ( the most competitive league in the world). No certaintity who will win. Could be Manchester City, Arsenal or Liverpool.

We aren't discussing the options for that category in this topic, mate.

- LaLiga Top 4
- PL Top 6

The choices & chances of winning are increasing, since that's no longer an option for the league winner.

[stompix]

Hihi, how different are some things when it comes to placements rather than winner...

So PSG and Bayern are ~ 1.15.
Now,I don't have any table for the Bundesliga but I doubt it's this murky as top 3 for France:
Marseille 2.0
Lens 2.6
Monaco 2.6
Lille 3.0
Lyon 3.5

There is no way to spice the praly with any of these.

Now going back to Spain, I wonder if it's not more value in this
- Atlético top 4 for 1.25
- Atletico winner without Madrid/Barcelona 1.66
You're essentially betting on place 3 rather than place 3&4.

[OsaiEmma]

~snip

So if you take something reliable like Arsenal, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get 1.05 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 1.7661
If you risk a little more, for example Liverpool, Haaland, Bayern, PSG, Atletico, then you get: 1.20 * 1.66 * 1.16 * 1.16 * 1.25 = 3.35

I actually love these season-long parleys, but I just can't wait for that long unless I'm placing a massive stake to make my potential payout worth the wait, and I can't take such risk especially when gambling.

I'm not gonna lie, looking at these combos, I'm seriously tempted to play them because they look too good and it almost feels like nothing can go wrong lol; but we all know anything can happen in football.